PhilTheFragger
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Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!
- Thread starter drdel
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Fade and Die
Medal Winner
Hardly! I’m 100% English...... but I’m also 100% British, and proud of it....... can you say something similar?
Old Skier
Tour Winner
I think you'll find most of his immediate family are English so he must be proud of the fact.
Fade and Die
Medal Winner
I’m not so sure...... I had a job in The Bank of Scotland on Threadneedle St, lasted about 6 months so got to know most of the people there, the majority of the Scottish lads that worked there had English wives and children...... none of them had a good word to say about England or the English! Very strange lot.
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
Of course they wouldn't say - that doesn't mean to say that they didn't like England or the English
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
Been hearing a bit about MRAs (Mutual Recognition Agreements) in the context of leaving with No Deal and 'reverting' to trading under WTO rules - it all seemed to simple - we leave the EU and simply start trading with USA, China etc under WTO rules. But I didn't know anything about MRAs - and I still don't know that much - but I know a bit more than I did.
And so I find myself reading an article / blog on the Leave Alliance Website written by the Pro-Brexit economist Peter North - which, after much detailed reasoning, concludes.
“One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government would allow it.â€
http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128
And referring to this in a blog titled The myth of the WTO option - the Professor of Organization Studies at Royal Holloway, University of London - Chris Grey concludes
So when Theresa May says that no deal is better than a bad deal she is either willing to entertain such a disaster or it is simply a negotiating tactic. But if it is a negotiating tactic it is a strange one since it is to say: do as I want or I will shoot myself in the head.
http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-myth-of-wto-option.html
And so I find myself reading an article / blog on the Leave Alliance Website written by the Pro-Brexit economist Peter North - which, after much detailed reasoning, concludes.
“One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government would allow it.â€
http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128
And referring to this in a blog titled The myth of the WTO option - the Professor of Organization Studies at Royal Holloway, University of London - Chris Grey concludes
So when Theresa May says that no deal is better than a bad deal she is either willing to entertain such a disaster or it is simply a negotiating tactic. But if it is a negotiating tactic it is a strange one since it is to say: do as I want or I will shoot myself in the head.
http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-myth-of-wto-option.html
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Old Skier
Tour Winner
You do realise that this is a blog written by a remainer and backed and recommend by remainers so perhaps it could be factually rubbish. Also quite an old piece so I'm surprised you waited so long to publish the link.
Nice to know how you waste your Sundays.
Nice to know how you waste your Sundays.
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
Chris Grey is a remainer and so that disqualifies his view - really? Even although he is Professor of Organization Studies at Royal Holloway, University of London - that he is a remainer means that his views can simply be dismissed out of hand - with no reasoning to counter his arguments.
And btw - you'll note that the comment Grey references
“One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government would allow it.â€
...was made by a pro-Brexit economist in the Leave Alliance website.
I note that both of these blogs were written well before the emergence of the leaver revisionism that has made No Deal and reversion to WTO rules something that was on the cards from the word go. But by golly they apply now that the snake-oil salesmen have been flogging their No Deal wares of late.
I think we will hear more of MRAs in the coming days and weeks.
And I will chose how I wish to use my Sundays - absolutely none of your business thankyou.
ColchesterFC
Journeyman Pro
Both articles, and your posts, do seem to conveniently ignore the fact that the EU trades with the UK as well as vice versa, and all of the barriers that are mentioned for the UK trying to trade with the EU are equally applicable the other way round. 1 in 7 German cars are sold in the UK (source quoted below) and the UK could make it very difficult or impossible for that trade to continue. Do you think that the German car manufacturers would be happy to see their profits reduced by 14% because they couldn't sell into the UK market? And that equally applies to French cheese and wine makers and other producers around the EU. And I'm sure the Spanish holiday resorts wouldn't be happy if the UK government played hardball and made it more difficult for UK citizens to go there on holiday - which is entirely possible in the event of no deal.
https://fullfact.org/europe/german-cars-uk/
https://fullfact.org/europe/german-cars-uk/
I like Chris Grey's blogs. Most of what he posts up is excellent, most of it. Where he lets himself down is when he gets all melodramatic. "BrexitMcCarthyism," he really spoils what he puts out there by trying to overemphasise.
As for revisionism and WTO rules. Someone else is rewriting history, or trying to. WTO was spoken about before the vote as a fallback position if the EU wouldn't agree to trade deals.
There's just too much hysteria, or is it Project Fear, from both sides.
As for revisionism and WTO rules. Someone else is rewriting history, or trying to. WTO was spoken about before the vote as a fallback position if the EU wouldn't agree to trade deals.
There's just too much hysteria, or is it Project Fear, from both sides.
Old Skier
Tour Winner
Doon frae Troon
Ryder Cup Winner
As a known supporter of Scottish independence I would have thought that you would have been smart enough to have worked out the answer to your question by yourself.
Your question more or less confirms your confusion between Britishness and Englishness.
drdel
Tour Rookie
Wishy, washy stuff. Load of subjective waffle which is long on opinions and short on facts from a well known self publicist. Have a look at the work of some real economists and econometricians.
Please remember the UK trades successfully with the RoW, with 'deals' and treaties in place. The 'fear' and brinkmanship is mostly a media and political storm promoted by those seeking the limelight to support their ambitions (political or personal).
You can get anything (that's legal) shipped to you or exported by you easily - just ask DHL, FEDEX, UPS etc who will handle the different duties and taxes within well established customs integrated systems.
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
I am simply highlighting analysis that counters the No Deal OK - WTO Rules OK mantra. I only know what I read. If you wish to counter the analysis then please do - so for instance point out to my why this Pro-Brexit economist is wrong in his assertion. Don;t attack me - I am just the messenger.
And just to help further - here is a link to a consideration from April 2015 of the UKIP view of leaving the EU on WTO rules as set out in the UKIP manifesto of the time - it also considers the changing position at the time of Roth Lea...
http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85534
The article finishes (my bold)
To trade with the EU, therefore, we are going to have to negotiate such agreements - trade agreements by any other name – and, for the time being, tap into the EU's ongoing arrangements. The "no negotiation" stance on withdrawal is not tenable. The WTO option, and what is termed by Global Britain as the "free trade option", is a dangerous fantasy. And at least Ukip has recognised that. The rest need to follow.
Old Skier
Tour Winner
The question was, do you agree and can you provide evidence to substantiate the link. Once again you use the "not me Guv" defence without saying anything of substance.
As I and others have said, untill the deed is done nobody really knows what is going to happen so me putting up spurious links in the same way you do provides no purpose.
As I and others have said, untill the deed is done nobody really knows what is going to happen so me putting up spurious links in the same way you do provides no purpose.
Old Skier
Tour Winner
Before someome spreads more useless links:
Planning for no-deal Brexit
A number of outlets, including the Daily Express, Daily Mail, Daily Mirror, Daily Star, Telegraph and Daily Record follow up on the Sunday Times story on supposed ‘no-deal’ preparations, including the potential for the Army to help deliver supplies.
An MOD spokesperson said:
We have received no formal request from other Government departments to assist in their contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit.
Planning for no-deal Brexit
A number of outlets, including the Daily Express, Daily Mail, Daily Mirror, Daily Star, Telegraph and Daily Record follow up on the Sunday Times story on supposed ‘no-deal’ preparations, including the potential for the Army to help deliver supplies.
An MOD spokesperson said:
We have received no formal request from other Government departments to assist in their contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit.
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
No - the question is do you agree - and if not why not?
Because it is not I who is suggesting that a No Deal and reverting to WTO rules are good things. Just rubbishing the views of those who did not vote to leave - and indeed rubbishing the views of some who DID vote to leave - just doesn't cut it. You might as well be a climate change denialist - ignoring all evidence presented - on the grounds that you simply don't believe in climate change.
And so explain to me why the Mutual Recognition Agreement aspect of trading (under WTO rules) is a red herring argument that will not apply to the UK on day #1 after leaving the EU.
MegaSteve
Tour Winner
I am fairly confident there won't be a 'no deal' final outcome as that doesn't fit the purposes of either side...
Also, fairly confident, both sides will be claiming victory and that they got the best possible deal for their side of the 'argument'...
It's how the political classes justifies its existence...
Or, at least attempts to...
Also, fairly confident, both sides will be claiming victory and that they got the best possible deal for their side of the 'argument'...
It's how the political classes justifies its existence...
Or, at least attempts to...
No deal is a deal. It means that trading will occur under WTO, not a cosy cuddly deal. All the rubbish about there'll be no food/medicine etc is just Project Fear, as trading will still occur albeit under different rules, including tariffs.
I can't believe that people are gullible enough to believe the rubbish being put out.
I can't believe that people are gullible enough to believe the rubbish being put out.
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
I can by reading the piffle some post on this site.
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