Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

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MegaSteve said:
Finding it mildly amusing some seem to think the result of an opinion poll ,of thousands, is a basis to argue for a 'proper ' vote involving millions to be re-run or overturned...

In fact it's bloomin ' hilarious....
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I'm not laughing.

It's a basis for there being value in tracking pubic opinion as the government stumbles towards a deal and the electorate become more informed about what leaving the EU will actually mean to them in their day-to-day life - and as they understand what little such as 'regaining control' and 'sovereignty' will actually mean to them in the context of a country having to negotiate deals in a big competitive world out there - a world that is light years away from the world we lived in before we joined the EU. There is no going back to these times. No matter how much some might wish it. That time has gone.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
I'm not laughing.

It's a basis for there being value in tracking pubic opinion as the government stumbles towards a deal and the electorate become more informed about what leaving the EU will actually mean to them in their day-to-day life - and as they understand what little such as 'regaining control' and 'sovereignty' will actually mean to them in the context of a country having to negotiate deals in a big competitive world out there - a world that is light years away from the world we lived in before we joined the EU. There is no going back to these times. No matter how much some might wish it. That time has gone.
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How do you know what will actually happen?
No-one knows.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
and as they understand what little such as 'regaining control' and 'sovereignty' will actually mean to them in the context of a country having to negotiate deals in a big competitive world out there - a world that is light years away from the world we lived in before we joined the EU.
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On the basis of this... I am really curious. What do/did you do for a living? Do you actually believe that the UK is not capable of running it's own affairs and that UK Business cannot operate without the EU's Paternal Influence?

Wow.
 
bobmac said:
How do you know what will actually happen?
No-one knows.
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For goodness sake - if you choose to ignore every forecast - no matter how solid a basis of fact the forecast or prediction is based upon - then I cannot help you.

You might as well choose to ignore everything that is written or said about what might happen tomorrow because you cannot live tomorrow today, and so cannot prove that it will 100% happen. But we do not live our lives that way.
 
IanM said:
On the basis of this... I am really curious. What do/did you do for a living? Do you actually believe that the UK is not capable of running it's own affairs and that UK Business cannot operate without the EU's Paternal Influence?

Wow.
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I am not saying that I don't believe the UK can operate outside of the EU. Of course it can.

But I do not believe that the UK can be extricated from the EU and the Global Economy with which the UK has wide-ranging links to through the EU without significant damage to the UK and the UK economy. Where is the evidence that proves incontrovertibly your assertion that the UK will flourish.

Economics aside - many of the promises made by Leave and the expectations raised amongst many Leave voters will I fear not materialise and those Leave voters will feel very hard done by - especially when they lose their jobs.

But hey. Why bother with all those experts telling us what they think might happen when Leave voters know better.

nb As you asked. I will add that in one of my jobs I did a lot of very detailed mathematical/statistical modelling. I have a pretty good idea how these things work; I understand about confidence levels and modelling uncertainty/certainty around the states and the errors in the states you are are modelling and are using in making predictions; how actual measurements can be incorporated into your modelling to improve your estimates and reduce your uncertainties; how adjustments can be built in to take account of expected errors in these measurements. Hw measurements can then be used as time goes on to adjust and correct your estimates to improve your predictions.

So yes. I think I have a reasonably good idea about how modelling and forecasting works. So when the vast majority of modelling experts and forecasters start telling a similar story about the UK economy post-Brexit I will tend to err on believing them rather than believe those who build their predictions on no more than hopes and aspirations.
 
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IanM said:
Actually you did say that.

You also seem to think we are "extricating" ourselves from the EU and Global Economy. That means you clearly dont understand what is going on, or you are on a deliberate wind up.

Ignore button pressed.
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I think that's been common knowledge for a while.
 
Blue in Munich said:
I think that's been common knowledge for a while.
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You think so...well you know what I do? I ask simple questions about what Leave voters expect to happen in the event of such as a No Deal. And I just get dismissed. I do not pretend to know a lot about this stuff (unlike some) but I ask fairly simple questions - and I get no answers based upon and facts or substance. I do however get plenty of assertions and beliefs.

And so I could ask all Leave voters on here whether they think a No Deal would be BAD for the UK economy, BAD as in the way most commentators, forecasters, economists and MPs think it will be. And I'm thinking that as usual I would get a massive denial that it will be. Why? Because we can't tell the future....jeeez.

Well you know what - you can pretty much tell the future over some things with pretty much 100% certainly.

So I predict that I will be living in the same house tomorrow night as I am tonight. I can do that because I know that most of the events that would make that not the case are ALL very unlikely to happen. And I can take a measurement on that (a very accurate one as I usually know where I am) through checking where I am at midnight, and again at 6am, and again at midday tomorrow and again at 6pm tomorrow. And if each check confirms that I am still in the house then the uncertainty of me not being here tomorrow evening comes down ever more - to almost 100% certainty and a very precise prediction of the future.

That is how forecasting works. And that is what is being denied by so many ever-so-clever Leave voters - many who it seems to me are frankly in denial or too sure of themselves to admit that all might not be as great as they might have hoped or were told it would be. Where are those unicorns when you need them.
 
Can you imagine if people never had the gusto to make changes because they were scared of the unknown.... What amazing things might never had been achieved.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
You think so...well you know what I do? I ask simple questions about what Leave voters expect to happen in the event of such as a No Deal. And I just get dismissed. I do not pretend to know a lot about this stuff (unlike some) but I ask fairly simple questions - and I get no answers based upon and facts or substance. I do however get plenty of assertions and beliefs.

And so I could ask all Leave voters on here whether they think a No Deal would be BAD for the UK economy, BAD as in the way most commentators, forecasters, economists and MPs think it will be. And I'm thinking that as usual I would get a massive denial that it will be. Why? Because we can't tell the future....jeeez.

Well you know what - you can pretty much tell the future over some things with pretty much 100% certainly.

So I predict that I will be living in the same house tomorrow night as I am tonight. I can do that because I know that most of the events that would make that not the case are ALL very unlikely to happen. And I can take a measurement on that (a very accurate one as I usually know where I am) through checking where I am at midnight, and again at 6am, and again at midday tomorrow and again at 6pm tomorrow. And if each check confirms that I am still in the house then the uncertainty of me not being here tomorrow evening comes down ever more - to almost 100% certainty and a very precise prediction of the future.

That is how forecasting works. And that is what is being denied by so many ever-so-clever Leave voters - many who it seems to me are frankly in denial or too sure of themselves to admit that all might not be as great as they might have hoped or were told it would be. Where are those unicorns when you need them.
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Wrong. This last paragraph is just silly rhetoric

A forecast involves a review of the past - it does not dictate the future; the economists and others look at the future and what other extraneous influences will change and guide the future. In good businesses the senior management look forward and they plan: they do not blindly follow a forecast and sit around and moan as things change around them; as you would have the UK do. The EU is in its own, rather serious state of flux as many experts and politicians recognise - but It guess you assume its all going to continue on the same trajectory.

In business ALL forecasts are wrong because management will work hard, investing time, money and effort to ensure that they exceed expectations and/or mitigate adverse issues. Brexit will allow (depending on the no deal) the UK to be more agile in world trade and other matters. The EU's decision making mechanism is sub-optimal for many member states because its only driven by the self-interests of a few and the complex voting process introduces high cost, inertia and delay.

IMO, as an econometrician, I for one forecast that the UK will compete well in the wider world and do far better with it freedom for tax setting, trade relations, agile business strategies, innovation and investment stability.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
You think so...well you know what I do? I ask simple questions about what Leave voters expect to happen in the event of such as a No Deal. And I just get dismissed. I do not pretend to know a lot about this stuff (unlike some) but I ask fairly simple questions - and I get no answers based upon and facts or substance. I do however get plenty of assertions and beliefs.
Click to expand...

So you think its wrong for someone to base their opinions on assertions and beliefs with no facts or substance?
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
I am not saying that I don't believe the UK can operate outside of the EU. Of course it can.

But I do not believe that the UK can be extricated from the EU and the Global Economy with which the UK has wide-ranging links to through the EU without significant damage to the UK and the UK economy. Where is the evidence that proves incontrovertibly your assertion that the UK will flourish.

Economics aside - many of the promises made by Leave and the expectations raised amongst many Leave voters will I fear not materialise and those Leave voters will feel very hard done by - especially when they lose their jobs.

But hey. Why bother with all those experts telling us what they think might happen when Leave voters know better.

nb As you asked. I will add that in one of my jobs I did a lot of very detailed mathematical/statistical modelling. I have a pretty good idea how these things work; I understand about confidence levels and modelling uncertainty/certainty around the states and the errors in the states you are are modelling and are using in making predictions; how actual measurements can be incorporated into your modelling to improve your estimates and reduce your uncertainties; how adjustments can be built in to take account of expected errors in these measurements. Hw measurements can then be used as time goes on to adjust and correct your estimates to improve your predictions.

So yes. I think I have a reasonably good idea about how modelling and forecasting works. So when the vast majority of modelling experts and forecasters start telling a similar story about the UK economy post-Brexit I will tend to err on believing them rather than believe those who build their predictions on no more than hopes and aspirations.
Click to expand...
You cannot make any predictions on how well the UK will trade with the EU until the end of the negotiations. You do not understand what trade arrangements will be in place, this renders any attempt to model an output impossible. We do have some impirical data available on how the UK currently trades outside the EU though and this makes up the majority of our trade. Even though this trade with the Rest of the World is hampered by protectionist EU tariffs which we could reduce or even remove after Brexit. Trade with the EU may be mainly Tariff free but that will be soon be made clear to us.

Keep calm and carry on until you/we understand the outcomes of negotiations.
 
drdel said:
IMO, as an econometrician, I for one forecast that the UK will compete well in the wider world and do far better with it freedom for tax setting, trade relations, agile business strategies, innovation and investment stability.
Click to expand...

You're wasting your time mate. You appear to be an expert on the wrong side of the fence so will be ignored by SILH, just like he ignores posts by those on here actually working on the negotiations and, we must assume, really know what they are talking about.

Let's face it, how can we take someone who believes in unicorns seriously? ;)
 
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