Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Mudball]

Good point - whatever happened to the reasonable and workable plan than Dave Davis and Friends had come up with and that May ignored. Where are Rees-Mogg and his ERG acolytes promoting that plan. They are nowhere. And they are not publishing because they are worried that it will be attacked and ridiculed. Well how splendid. Must be a cracking plan. And some very pointed thoughts from Ireland's EU COmmissioner on the apparent almost total lack of understanding that many lead Leavers have of NI issues and politics - and so on border trade, smuggling, funding of terrorist organisations and the Easter Friday agreements.

On these things where is the education of the British electorate by the Leave campaign - not just glib dismissals as Project Fear - but addressing the real and day-to-day concerns of PSNI Chief Constable George Hamilton as expressed in the Sunday Times article today. '

It'll be OK' and 'things will sort themselves out' just do wash for Northern Ireland - because they just didn't, don't and won't - as we saw over nearly 30yrs of the troubles and 3,600 lives, 3,600!!! - and even today after 500+ days of non-government the PSNI struggle every day to keep the lid on things.

And Leavers glibly talk as if it's not a big deal...

As time moves on, i am not anti-Leave or anti-Brexit. But I want to see a credible plan. All this nonsense from all the leading brexiterrs about 'will of people', unicorn land, Us-v-them, 'things will sort themselves out', 'small price to pay', 'our glorious past - our glorious future' is as strong as a sandcastle on a beach by someone with a plastic bucket and spade. When will the Leavers recoganise that not all ReMoaners are Europilic but are only asking tough questions on 'now whats the plan?'.

Equally i recoganise not all Leavers may be open to the idea of the 'current european structures' and may have been fooled by the divisive rhetoric from both sides... But with Davis, R-M and Boris admitting that they dont have a plan/or want to share it, isnt it time to admit that the Emperor has no clothes??

... Just for the amusement.. saw this on twitter, but cannot guarantee source,.. <read with usual pinch of salt>

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

And so - I read today of a report to be released tomorrow by Economists for Free Trade that predicts an £80bn boost to the UK economy from a No Deal Brexit.

Well - there's handy timing - with so many pointers towards a No Deal and the dire warnings from almost all and sundry about such an outcome - it's about time someone came out with some GREAT BIG BENEFITS of a No Deal - and how marvellous it's going to be. Though I do ask - why have these boys and girls been hiding their light under a bushel for the last 2yrs - because a No Deal today is the same as a No Deal 2 yrs ago. Must be very detailed analysis and forecasting to have taken so long.

And if over the last two years this group has been carrying a bright and burning torch for Brexit - and especially a No Deal - I've rather missed them in all the doom and gloom - I have not seen much light from Leave on how we all knew what we - the British People - were voting for when we voted for a No Deal (apparently). But now we know - £80bn over 15yrs. They should have told JR-M as he's not expecting the UK to see much benefit for maybe 50yrs.

But hey. £80bn - that's just FAB - says JR-M and the Moggies. But hold on just a wee mo - the sceptics might say. That's £80bn over 15years...so £5.3bn a year. Would be nice if it came to pass - but not exactly game changing given all the known EU-disengagement downsides of No Deal?

A hard brexit will deliver a 'dramatic economic stimulus for the UK' and 'technological solutions can be found for monitoring the Irish border'

Well there you go. Who'd have guessed it.

Onwards and Outwards - to Oblivion and Beyond

 

[Hobbit]

And so - I read today of a report to be released tomorrow by Economists for Free Trade that predicts an £80bn boost to the UK economy from a No Deal Brexit.

Well - there's handy timing - with so many pointers towards a No Deal and the dire warnings from almost all and sundry about such an outcome - it's about time someone came out with some GREAT BIG BENEFITS of a No Deal - and how marvellous it's going to be. Though I do ask - why have these boys and girls been hiding their light under a bushel for the last 2yrs - because a No Deal today is the same as a No Deal 2 yrs ago. Must be very detailed analysis and forecasting to have taken so long.

And if over the last two years this group has been carrying a bright and burning torch for Brexit - and especially a No Deal - I've rather missed them in all the doom and gloom - I have not seen much light from Leave on how we all knew what we - the British People - were voting for when we voted for a No Deal (apparently). But now we know - £80bn over 15yrs. They should have told JR-M as he's not expecting the UK to see much benefit for maybe 50yrs.

But hey. £80bn - that's just FAB - says JR-M and the Moggies. But hold on just a wee mo - the sceptics might say. That's £80bn over 15years...so £5.3bn a year. Would be nice if it came to pass - but not exactly game changing given all the known EU-disengagement downsides of No Deal?

A hard brexit will deliver a 'dramatic economic stimulus for the UK' and 'technological solutions can be found for monitoring the Irish border'

Well there you go. Who'd have guessed it.

Onwards and Outwards - to Oblivion and Beyond

You need to lift your head up and look!

They also produced a document months ago showing what No Deal tariffs would look like for both sides. As the EU exports more than it imports the balance of trade, a huge measure of economic wealth, showed that the EU would pay over £300 BILLION more in tariffs than they would receive. That isn't the EU as a political body, its the companies within the EU. Imagine what the UK could do to support industries in the UK with those tariffs! And imagine what the EU would need to support those companies - and with less in the way of tariffs. Add to that the enormous amount of 'lost' VAT and you might, if you open your eyes, see why it isn't all doom and gloom.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Slightly OT but still to do with UK reporting.

Anyone else notice that the Green/left party in the Swedish elections made the same increase in votes as the far right one.
The middle road was squeezed.
All UK/BBC headlines state gains for the right wing party up to 17% of votes..….which is correct but also very misleading.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Fair point DFT but I think they are highlighting it as it shows a trend across Europe which shows an increase in support for anti immigration, right wing parties. Parties that were on the edges of the political world are now becoming relevant. If equivalent left wing parties were doing consistently well across Europe then it would equally merit reporting, I would hope.

Interesting point though. I think it shows how people generally are looking for alternatives to the political parties that have dominated in most countries for many years. If you take the UK the two main UK parties are in dissarray and the 3rd party, LIbDems, are virtually irrelevant right now. (I have not mentioned the SNP, Irish parties etc as they do not stand across the whole of the UK) There is a hole for a new party or movement to step into if someone wants to try. Now is as good a time as any.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Fair point DFT but I think they are highlighting it as it shows a trend across Europe which shows an increase in support for anti immigration, right wing parties. Parties that were on the edges of the political world are now becoming relevant. If equivalent left wing parties were doing consistently well across Europe then it would equally merit reporting, I would hope.

Interesting point though. I think it shows how people generally are looking for alternatives to the political parties that have dominated in most countries for many years. If you take the UK the two main UK parties are in dissarray and the 3rd party, LIbDems, are virtually irrelevant right now. (I have not mentioned the SNP, Irish parties etc as they do not stand across the whole of the UK) There is a hole for a new party or movement to step into if someone wants to try. Now is as good a time as any.

I agree - I just fear that by their words and actions on both sides of the political divide some are pushing the UK much further to the right than it's normal fairly centralist position - sometimes drifting centre left - sometimes centre right. I really don't think it's a good place to go - yet that is where some would take us - if not blindly - yet not fully seeing. And if they were able the left would do the same - to a position way left of centre that will not suit...which is why I have strong feelings for what Johnson and the ERG are attempting - in his and their own self-serving way - to do, And what Corbyn and Momentum are trying on the left. Both I do not like and both I criticise.

But looking at this from where we are today - for Brexit to be taking us to a fairly far right position simply as a means to fulfilling the desires of those in pursuit of power...not good.

 

[drdel]

You need to lift your head up and look!

They also produced a document months ago showing what No Deal tariffs would look like for both sides. As the EU exports more than it imports the balance of trade, a huge measure of economic wealth, showed that the EU would pay over £300 BILLION more in tariffs than they would receive. That isn't the EU as a political body, its the companies within the EU. Imagine what the UK could do to support industries in the UK with those tariffs! And imagine what the EU would need to support those companies - and with less in the way of tariffs. Add to that the enormous amount of 'lost' VAT and you might, if you open your eyes, see why it isn't all doom and gloom.

You're at it again, you should know better than to bother with common sense arithmetic. Even though we're a net importer with a negative balance of payments with the EU; the Remainer protagonists just won't have it.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

You're at it again, you should know better than to bother with common sense arithmetic. Even though we're a net importer with a negative balance of payments with the EU; the Remainer protagonists just won't have it.

Yeh - yeh - it's all going to be just great. Pity few who actually know about these things and will have reads that analysis actually believe that.

Meanwhile - remind me again of the solution to the multiple NI border issues that's going to make all of this great future possible?

 

[Hobbit]

Yeh - yeh - it's all going to be just great. Pity few who actually know about these things and will have reads that analysis actually believe that.

Meanwhile - remind me again of the solution to the multiple NI border issues that's going to make all of this great future possible?

How downright arrogantly dismissive!

It isn't going to be great, but it isn't going to be all doom and gloom as you constantly expound.

As for your subsequent deflection by bringing up the NI border, again, again, again... why not just go and look at pictures of puppies.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

The NI border will be the stumbling block that the UK trips up on.
No leavers have offered any workable solutions so lets just return it to what it was before peacetime.

 

[drdel]

Yeh - yeh - it's all going to be just great. Pity few who actually know about these things and will have reads that analysis actually believe that.

Meanwhile - remind me again of the solution to the multiple NI border issues that's going to make all of this great future possible?

Thank you for your put-down/insult: even though my post was not directed at you personally: however, 'if-the-cap-fits'!

My past career as an econometrician is enough 'expertise '' for me to make up my mind, you can do the same. I'm prepared to admit there will be winners and losers (inevitable with any change process) but I think it will be worth it for the UK's future. Hopefully, it is the balance for the UK that is considered by a democratic government.

As to the NI/Ireland trade issues; I'd suggest you consider that the actual volume of freight and trade involved is relatively small (not to those involved, of course) and so a balance has to be found to the benefit of the whole of the UK. The Freight Forwarding industry, Freeports and other logistics mechanisms handle imports and exports seamlessly for much, much bigger volumes of trade across the RoW daily with little or no interruptions. I'd, respectively, suggest you ignore the political football and see the reality.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

And so on Newsnight this evening we have Crispin Blunt MP and member of the ERG describing the NI border issue as a shibboleth.

a custom, principle, or belief distinguishing a particular class or group of people, especially a long-standing one regarded as outmoded or no longer important.

Good to know that folks like Blunt are taking the NI border issue seriously...

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Thank you for your put-down/insult: even though my post was not directed at you personally: however, 'if-the-cap-fits'!

My past career as an econometrician is enough 'expertise '' for me to make up my mind, you can do the same. I'm prepared to admit there will be winners and losers (inevitable with any change process) but I think it will be worth it for the UK's future. Hopefully, it is the balance for the UK that is considered by a democratic government.

As to the NI/Ireland trade issues; I'd suggest you consider that the actual volume of freight and trade involved is relatively small (not to those involved, of course) and so a balance has to be found to the benefit of the whole of the UK. The Freight Forwarding industry, Freeports and other logistics mechanisms handle imports and exports seamlessly for much, much bigger volumes of trade across the RoW daily with little or no interruptions. I'd, respectively, suggest you ignore the political football and see the reality.

The NI border issue is about a lot more than trade...

 

[SocketRocket]

The NI border issue is about a lot more than trade...

The solution to the NI border is a free trade agreement with the EU. This should have been the first item to settle and then the others are no longer a problem. The current mess has been created by the EU negotiators deliberately trying to use it as a means to stop Brexit.

 

[Dando]

The solution to the NI border is a free trade agreement with the EU. This should have been the first item to settle and then the others are no longer a problem. The current mess has been created by the EU negotiators deliberately trying to use it as a means to stop Brexit.

I’m sure SILH will be along soon to tell you your wrong and the EU wouldn’t do a thing like that.
It’s all down to the incompetence of the Government

 

[chrisd]

Yeh - yeh - it's all going to be just great. Pity few who actually know about these things and will have reads that analysis actually believe that.

It's so funny that anyone who release a pro Brexit report are not to be believed but turn that the other way ................

You really are, as Hobbit says, "arrogantly dismissive" and the reason that this thread is an utter joke!

 

[Foxholer]

The solution to the NI border is a free trade agreement with the EU. This should have been the first item to settle and then the others are no longer a problem. The current mess has been created by the EU negotiators deliberately trying to use it as a means to stop Brexit.

Not quite as simple as simply a Free Trade Agreement, as the commitment to an 'open border' that has been made by all parties (EU, UK, NI, SI) would also mean 'Freedom of Movement' as well! Somehow, I don't think you'd accept that!

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

It's so funny that anyone who release a pro Brexit report are not to be believed but turn that the other way ................

You really are, as Hobbit says, "arrogantly dismissive" and the reason that this thread is an utter joke!

LOL - 'Arrogantly dismissive' being levelled at a Remain voter expressing real concerns with very little of substance coming the other way other the usual 'remoaner' jibes. The only utter joke - that isn't a joke - is the way that the concerns of those who hold these concerns are dismissed as irrelevant; that really serious issues such as those associated with the NI border are casually waved away with vague notions of agreements and mechanisms largely undefined. And yet all will be OK.

Well sorry - but when I heard last night a Tory MP of the ERG group dismissing the NI border issues as a shibboleth, and another trying to pretend that the ERG isn't the sort of grouping that could come up with a plan for Brexit - that their role is to 'advise' on what os acceptable and what is not - then I will continue to highlight where issues and concerns are raised around Brexit and especially a No Deal.

The FACT is that lead leavers (and the rest) do not have a plan or a clue about life after a No Deal Brexit - and why do they not write down their plan for a Deal or define how their No Deal will work? Because they know that as soon as they do that it will become evident that they do not have a workable plan - that it will become clear that they simply want out of the EU no matter what the damage to UK society and our economy...and that would be an utter joke if it were not totally disgraceful.

 

[chrisd]

As usual, you twist opposing comments

Hobbit, I and others, pointed out that you were "arrogantly dismissive" of reports supporting Brexit

 

[bobmac]

Well sorry - but when I heard last night a Tory MP of the ERG group dismissing the NI border issues as a shibboleth, and another trying to pretend that the ERG isn't the sort of grouping that could come up with a plan for Brexit - that their role is to 'advise' on what os acceptable and what is not - then I will continue to highlight where issues and concerns are raised around Brexit and especially a No Deal.

Why?