Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Is signing up for the Sunningdale Day ok as "The end of the World" is happening by next summer? ....................... no petrol for the car, no food or meds..................... just checking before I send Glyn £25

Don't worry - the Head of the WTO has said leaving the EU without a deal won't be the end of the world for the UK (and I'm not sure who might actually have said that in any case). Though as he's an expert you might not want to believe him.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I thought this video gave an easy to understand explanation about UK reverting to trading under WTO rules.

I'll note that this explains quite clearly what the UK might be risking if we leave with No Deal and refuse to pay the £39Bn we've agreed as part of our Exit Agreement.

To operate under WTO rules the UK must have a Schedule of Tariffs, Quotas and Subsidies - and this schedule must be agreed by 163 nations - plus the EU. If the EU opposes the schedule - as it might well do were the UK to refuse to pay the £39Bn - then we are rather stuck without an agreed schedule. That could be a bit of an issue - and what sort of message does refusing to meet agreed obligations in respect of the Exit Agreement send to the 163 other WTO countries also required to agree the UKs schedule.

Not that any of this was explained by the Leave campaign before the vote - nor is it being explained today by 'No Dealers' . And so we thunder towards the cliff edge of March 29th - just like the innocently grazing gadarene herd that, when infiltrated by demons, rushed down the steep slope into the sea and drowned.

But let's not worry - unlike the gadarene herd I am told that we will have No Deal contingencies and risk mitigations in place and so unlike the herd we'd have been taught to swim.

 

[MegaSteve]

You seem to have forgotten that Sturgeon offered Milliband her party's support to kick the Tories out of Westminster [on many occasions].
Milliband refused to accept Sturgeon's offer and foolishly went out of his way to denigrate the SNP, thus marginalising the Devo Max supporting Labour voters.

With a former leader of the SNP voicing a strong desire to punish Londoners any coalition with the SNP was going to difficult [probably impossible] to justify with Labour supporters in the south... Until he finally disappears, into obscurity, that'll be the case for some while... And, right now, I can fully understand SNP not wishing to be associated with Labour whilst Jezza is in the chair...

 

[SocketRocket]

Don't worry - the Head of the WTO has said leaving the EU without a deal won't be the end of the world for the UK (and I'm not sure who might actually have said that in any case). Though as he's an expert you might not want to believe him.

Lord King is an expert. I guess you will want to believe him then, or do you only believe experts that share your personal views 🤔

 

[BubbaP]

May be it’s only Remoaners who exists on Twitter.. but some of the responses are worth a read about people’s fear on Brexit. (leavers look away now). For the sake of the child, I hope we never come to this..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1037063987068841984

Much as this thread irritates many people, this forum may be one of the few places left where people of differing views do have some kind of "debate"
http://www.dailycamera.com/cu-news/...minded-people-creates-extreme-political-views

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Lord King is an expert. I guess you will want to believe him then, or do you only believe experts that share your personal views 🤔

Is Lord King Head of the WTO?

And what of the WTO Rules explanation video in respect of the Schedule we have to agree with 163 countries plus the EU do you disagree with. And do you think that refusing to pay the £39Bn Exit Agreement payment would be a good idea given the EU has to approve and sign-off on the UK's WTO Trade Schedule. Or does not of that matter?

 

[Dellboy]

Is Lord King Head of the WTO?

And what of the WTO Rules explanation video in respect of the Schedule we have to agree with 163 countries plus the EU do you disagree with. And do you think that refusing to pay the £39Bn Exit Agreement payment would be a good idea given the EU has to approve and sign-off on the UK's WTO Trade Schedule. Or does not of that matter?

163 WTO Members (actually, 27 of these are EU Member States, so there are fewer voices than that)

They do have a veto over the certification of these schedules. But certification has merely evidentiary weight. The UK’s scheduled commitments exist even if they are not certified, Indeed, the EU itself has not traded under certified schedules since 1974.

 

[SocketRocket]

Is Lord King Head of the WTO?

And what of the WTO Rules explanation video in respect of the Schedule we have to agree with 163 countries plus the EU do you disagree with. And do you think that refusing to pay the £39Bn Exit Agreement payment would be a good idea given the EU has to approve and sign-off on the UK's WTO Trade Schedule. Or does not of that matter?

No, He's an Expert and you like us to believe experts. Typical divergence of the question from you again

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

No, He's an Expert and you like us to believe experts. Typical divergence of the question from you again

We are all experts in something or other. I tend to put most store in the views held by those experts closest to, or most experienced in, a subject. So on the WTO - I think I might listen a little more to what the Head of the WTO says about how the WTO works and WTO related matters than Lord King. I wouldn't dismiss what Lord King might say about the WTO - but if it conflicts with what the the Head of the WTO says then for me the view of the latter would hold more sway - especially as I do not see him as having any great stake in the game of the UK leaving the EU.

 

[Mudball]

We are all experts in something or other. I tend to put most store in the views held by those experts closest to, or most experienced in, a subject. So on the WTO - I think I might listen a little more to what the Head of the WTO says about how the WTO works and WTO related matters than Lord King. I wouldn't dismiss what Lord King might say about the WTO - but if it conflicts with what the the Head of the WTO says then for me the view of the latter would hold more sway - especially as I do not see him as having any great stake in the game of the UK leaving the EU.

Damn... you are bringing rational thinking into an emotional conversation... as they would say in the old days.. 'Off with his head'...

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

And on the subject of experts - or should it be 'ignorants'.

The Secretary of State for NI - Karen Bradley - tells us that when she took the job in January she did not understand NI politics. Ye gods.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/karen-bradley-northern-ireland_uk_5b91897be4b0511db3e08f2b

Makes me wonder how many of Johnson, JR-M and his ERG acolytes have the same understanding of NI politics and issues as KB. If their understanding / ignorance is anything approaching that which KB admits to, then we might have got some insight into why they talk of the NI border and wider NI political issues with such glib insouciance.

They huvnae a scoobie

 

[Old Skier]

Even the northern Irish don't understand NI politics

 

[ColchesterFC]

We are all experts in something or other. I tend to put most store in the views held by those experts closest to, or most experienced in, a subject. So on the WTO - I think I might listen a little more to what the Head of the WTO says about how the WTO works and WTO related matters than Lord King. I wouldn't dismiss what Lord King might say about the WTO - but if it conflicts with what the the Head of the WTO says then for me the view of the latter would hold more sway - especially as I do not see him as having any great stake in the game of the UK leaving the EU.

I was going to edit your post but couldn't remember if it was you or DfT that got a bit precious about people doing that so I refrained. I would've changed it to "I tend to put most store in the views held by those experts closest to, my own personal opinion in, a subject". As I think that would be closer to the truth than your original post.

 

[Dando]

We are all experts in something or other. I tend to put most store in the views held by those experts closest to, or most experienced in, a subject. So on the WTO - I think I might listen a little more to what the Head of the WTO says about how the WTO works and WTO related matters than Lord King. I wouldn't dismiss what Lord King might say about the WTO - but if it conflicts with what the the Head of the WTO says then for me the view of the latter would hold more sway - especially as I do not see him as having any great stake in the game of the UK leaving the EU.

So he’s an expert, but not expert enough for you as it doesn’t fit with your “EU is the greatest thing ever to happen ever in the history of the world”

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

So he’s an expert, but not expert enough for you as it doesn’t fit with your “EU is the greatest thing ever to happen ever in the history of the world”

Typical misunderstanding and misrepresentation of the views of most supporters of Remain - who do not see the EU as the greatest thing since sliced bread but DO see LEAVING it as an insane act of self harm. But if it makes Leave voters feel better then fine - pretend away that we are as fanatical pro-EU as many Leave voters are fanatical anti-EU - but please remember - we are not.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Typical misunderstanding and misrepresentation of the views of most supporters of Remain - who do not see the EU as the greatest thing since sliced bread but DO see LEAVING it as an insane act of self harm. But if it makes Leave voters feel better then fine - pretend away that we are as fanatical pro-EU as many Leave voters are fanatical anti-EU - but please remember - we are not.

Good post.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Disgusting behaviour by all of those folk waving EU flags and wearing EU berets in the Albert Hall for the last night of the Proms.
They seem you outnumber the usual Union flag mob.

 

[USER1999]

Wearing a hat indoors. Enough said.

 

[Mudball]

Looks like the Eurosceptic Brexiteer Tory have a credible plan but don’t want to share it as it will be ridiculed... but they are not shy of calling T Mays plan a suicide vest!!!

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Looks like the Eurosceptic Brexiteer Tory have a credible plan but don’t want to share it as it will be ridiculed... but they are not shy of calling T Mays plan a suicide vest!!!
View attachment 25486

Good point - whatever happened to the reasonable and workable plan than Dave Davis and Friends had come up with and that May ignored. Where are Rees-Mogg and his ERG acolytes promoting that plan. They are nowhere. And they are not publishing because they are worried that it will be attacked and ridiculed. Well how splendid. Must be a cracking plan. And some very pointed thoughts from Ireland's EU COmmissioner on the apparent almost total lack of understanding that many lead Leavers have of NI issues and politics - and so on border trade, smuggling, funding of terrorist organisations and the Easter Friday agreements.

On these things where is the education of the British electorate by the Leave campaign - not just glib dismissals as Project Fear - but addressing the real and day-to-day concerns of PSNI Chief Constable George Hamilton as expressed in the Sunday Times article today. '

It'll be OK' and 'things will sort themselves out' just do wash for Northern Ireland - because they just didn't, don't and won't - as we saw over nearly 30yrs of the troubles and 3,600 lives, 3,600!!! - and even today after 500+ days of non-government the PSNI struggle every day to keep the lid on things.

And Leavers glibly talk as if it's not a big deal...