Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Hacker Khan]

Anyway. I've been thinking about what is the most likely turn of events (no conspiracy theories).

For me, we're about to see the Deal fall short by approximately 100 votes. This will then lead on to a second referendum with a binary choice. No Deal or No Brexit.

Not sure what the outcome of that will be though. Still too close to call 🤷‍♂️

As in Hard Brexit or No Brexit? Possibly might happen. But I imagine it would be absolute political carnage. And will do nothing to heal the polarisation in society. But then again I can't see any way out of this this won't end up with a lot of people being very upset and a lot of people losing faith in politicians who will either a) ignore the democratic will of the people or b) deliberately vote to make us less well off as a nation. Depending on your point of view.

My hope now is for May to go (and hopefully take a lot of other of the current crop on both sides with her) and the EU then giving us more time to try and negotiate with new faces in charge. We come to a compromise that will absolutely please no one but is the best we will get, some kind of deal is arranged and we then spend the next few decades still arguing about it.

 

[bluewolf]

As in Hard Brexit or No Brexit? Possibly might happen. But I imagine it would be absolute political carnage. And will do nothing to heal the polarisation in society. But then again I can't see any way out of this this won't end up with a lot of people being very upset and a lot of people losing faith in politicians who will either a) ignore the democratic will of the people or b) deliberately vote to make us less well off as a nation. Depending on your point of view.

My hope now is for May to go (and hopefully take a lot of other of the current crop on both sides with her) and the EU then giving us more time to try and negotiate with new faces in charge. We come to a compromise that will absolutely please no one but is the best we will get, some kind of deal is arranged and we then spend the next few decades still arguing about it.

I did mean that yes. No Deal (Hard Brexit) or No Brexit. I can't see any other option after watching the discussions in the HOC over the last few days. I just can't see the EU wanting to give us more time. As much as it's carnage for us, it's carnage for them as well. Whatever happens, happens in March next year..

 

[chrisd]

If we do go for another vote I'd like to see all leavers protest by abstaining, I know it wont happen but let's face it, democracy
will be dead at that point anyway.

 

[Blue in Munich]

As in Hard Brexit or No Brexit? Possibly might happen. But I imagine it would be absolute political carnage. And will do nothing to heal the polarisation in society. But then again I can't see any way out of this this won't end up with a lot of people being very upset and a lot of people losing faith in politicians who will either a) ignore the democratic will of the people or b) deliberately vote to make us less well off as a nation. Depending on your point of view.

My hope now is for May to go (and hopefully take a lot of other of the current crop on both sides with her) and the EU then giving us more time to try and negotiate with new faces in charge. We come to a compromise that will absolutely please no one but is the best we will get, some kind of deal is arranged and we then spend the next few decades still arguing about it.

You can't lose what you've never had.

 

[Blue in Munich]

I did mean that yes. No Deal (Hard Brexit) or No Brexit. I can't see any other option after watching the discussions in the HOC over the last few days. I just can't see the EU wanting to give us more time. As much as it's carnage for us, it's carnage for them as well. Whatever happens, happens in March next year..

Purely for discussion, assuming No Brexit, where do you think we will sit re contributions; will this cost us, save us a few Euros or business as normal?

 

[chrisd]

Just an odd thought, if the EU can do a deal for us to leave but dont really want us to, why can't they do a deal for us to stay, make it better than Cameron was offered and address immigration etc in a more acceptable way and then suggest that we have another vote?

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Purely for discussion, assuming No Brexit, where do you think we will sit re contributions; will this cost us, save us a few Euros or business as normal?

Apparently, if we don't leave then we remain on exactly the same terms including the rebate etc. They can't punish us. This came up on a program, or news, that I was watching.

 

[harpo_72]

If we do go for another vote I'd like to see all leavers protest by abstaining, I know it wont happen but let's face it, democracy
will be dead at that point anyway.

Not sure I follow the logic, since the referendum more evidence on impacts have surfaced as have different versions of leave. We also now have “a deal” , with details, like it or not all deals will encapsulate the key points of this “deal” . No deal, is deemed to be unacceptable, except to a few people who have their heads buried in the sand ... the Norway deal which people think they will get but why bother, even the Norwegian’s think we are donuts for wanting that one. Then there is remain ... which was least popular in the referendum at the time when no one knew any consequences of leaving or the options /deals and several million suddenly realised they should have voted if they really wanted to stay.

 

[bluewolf]

Purely for discussion, assuming No Brexit, where do you think we will sit re contributions; will this cost us, save us a few Euros or business as normal?

As the dinky Lord stated, we'd be in exactly the same position as before. We may even be in a slightly stronger position as we'd have more time to prepare ourselves for a Hard Brexit and could use this to increase our influence. Then again, who really knows?

 

[chrisd]

Not sure I follow the logic, since the referendum more evidence on impacts have surfaced as have different versions of leave. We also now have “a deal” , with details, like it or not all deals will encapsulate the key points of this “deal” . No deal, is deemed to be unacceptable, except to a few people who have their heads buried in the sand ... the Norway deal which people think they will get but why bother, even the Norwegian’s think we are donuts for wanting that one. Then there is remain ... which was least popular in the referendum at the time when no one knew any consequences of leaving or the options /deals and several million suddenly realised they should have voted if they really wanted to stay.

But if David Cameron had come back from his talks with a much better deal there would not even have been a referendum which should have told the EU to try again and get it right, and not leave it to the Remainers to try and push for the "keep voting until you get it right".

 

[bluewolf]

Just an odd thought, if the EU can do a deal for us to leave but dont really want us to, why can't they do a deal for us to stay, make it better than Cameron was offered and address immigration etc in a more acceptable way and then suggest that we have another vote?

I'm not sure that logic flows. The Deal to leave was worse than our current position because it had to be. For the very same reason they can't arrange a better deal for us to Stay.

 

[IanM]

Apparently, if we don't leave then we remain on exactly the same terms including the rebate etc. They can't punish us. This came up on a program, or news, that I was watching.

...other than the report issued to the Central Bank this week about pan EU debt will require fairly significant rethink about funding.....we will indeed stay on current terms, but longer term lose the rebate and expect contributions to rise sharply.

Of course we could also have a Corbyn Government then too.... he may let you keep some of your wages!

 

[Hacker Khan]

But if David Cameron had come back from his talks with a much better deal there would not even have been a referendum which should have told the EU to try again and get it right, and not leave it to the Remainers to try and push for the "keep voting until you get it right".

I'm not sure about that, I suspect the Tories would have still been under pressure from UKIP so may well have still promised a referendum. Remember they were pretty sure they'd stay in so they probably thought it was a win win, get UKIP off their backs for a while and also not having to deal with the resultant carnage.

 

[Hacker Khan]

...other than the report issued to the Central Bank this week about pan EU debt will require fairly significant rethink about funding.....we will indeed stay on current terms, but longer term lose the rebate and expect contributions to rise sharply.

Of course we could also have a Corbyn Government then too.... he may let you keep some of you wages!

Eye, and he may even fund schools and hospitals as well

Trouble he he is as clueless as anyone is on this, so that would be a double whammy for the Tory party, still no agreement on what we are to do plus they are no longer in power.

 

[IanM]

UKIP no longer a threat to Tories since the new head seems matey with some unsavouries! (No, not David Lammy!)

Refererendum was only called as they were told there was no way of "losing!"

 

[IanM]

Eye, and he may even fund schools and hospitals as well

He'll need to! You cant keep adding endlessly to a queue and not expect it to get longer!!

 

[Foxholer]

Just an odd thought, if the EU can do a deal for us to leave but dont really want us to, why can't they do a deal for us to stay, make it better than Cameron was offered and address immigration etc in a more acceptable way and then suggest that we have another vote?

That would be my preferred option, but I don't believe it's likely to ever (have) be(en) on the table!

The 'real' reasons for the 'Leave' win seems to have been voters view for UK to regain control of immigration and to be able to control what it is committed to, financially (eliminating EU levy), legally (UK Courts having ultimate jurisdiction cf ECJ) and policy-wise (so the likes of an EU Army can't be foisted upon it!).

The above reasons seem to be so fundamentally against the EU's principles that they would never, imo, be offered!

 

[IanM]

Anyway. I've been thinking about what is the most likely turn of events (no conspiracy theories).

For me, we're about to see the Deal fall short by approximately 100 votes. This will then lead on to a second referendum with a binary choice. No Deal or No Brexit.

Correct. That has been the startegy since the establishment lost the Referendum. 3 years of campaigning on it too by one well funded lot. The others went home celebrating their "win".... what I dont understand is why they thought the Govt would implement the Referendum... no vote against the EU has ever "not-been" re-run!

 

[Blue in Munich]

Apparently, if we don't leave then we remain on exactly the same terms including the rebate etc. They can't punish us. This came up on a program, or news, that I was watching.

Thanks

 

[Blue in Munich]

As the dinky Lord stated, we'd be in exactly the same position as before. We may even be in a slightly stronger position as we'd have more time to prepare ourselves for a Hard Brexit and could use this to increase our influence. Then again, who really knows?

Certainly not the politicians! Thanks