upsidedown
Tour Winner
:thup:
Betting Project - win my golf fees
- Thread starter Grant85
- Start date
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D
Deleted member 16999
Guest
Only ever used the one betting account and £2.50 is just fun, been lucky a few times getting to a ton, would never consider decent amounts.
The only people making money off Everton are you lot betting against them :rofl:
fundy
Ryder Cup Winner
Plenty of ways to skin the cat but the only way to win long term is to be on the right side of the value. And that only gets harder and harder these days. Would love another shot at the betting markets of 10 years ago 
rudebhoy
Q-School Graduate
in play betting on snooker can be pretty rewarding.
example from last night : Higgins was a strong fav beforehand. They were tied at 6-6 with Hawkins about 40 points up. He then runs out of position. had quick look at betting, Hawkins 4/7, Higgins 11/8 to win the match. Had £20 on Higgins. Higgins goes on to win the frame, and betting changes to Higgins 2/7 Hawkins 3/1. Had £7 on Hawkins, guaranteed profit of just over £20 if Higgins goes on to win (most likely scenario), and no loss if Hawkins wins. Higgins goes on to win.
The odds fluctuate a lot, so it's worth waiting until you get a decent price on the likely winner, e.g. if he goes behind.
Another good source of value - Sky Bet do a lot of price boosts, often doubling the odds on certain bets. I've had a good number of winners recently which I didn't particularly fancy but backed because they were great value. Good example was recent Porto - Liverpool game. They boost the odds on Salah and Firmino both scoring from 4/1 to 8/1. I wouldn't have touched that normally, but the value stood out.
More often than not, the boosted price is on a football treble, you can cash out in-play, so if you get in a position when all 3 are winning, it worth looking at this with 10-15 mins to go as it's pretty likely one of them will concede an equaliser.
I used to back horses a lot, but thats a mug's game - you've got one horse running for you , and the rest of the field is running for the bookie. Unless it's exceptional value like the double odds football bets, I stick to bets which only have 2 or 3 possible outcomes / winners.
example from last night : Higgins was a strong fav beforehand. They were tied at 6-6 with Hawkins about 40 points up. He then runs out of position. had quick look at betting, Hawkins 4/7, Higgins 11/8 to win the match. Had £20 on Higgins. Higgins goes on to win the frame, and betting changes to Higgins 2/7 Hawkins 3/1. Had £7 on Hawkins, guaranteed profit of just over £20 if Higgins goes on to win (most likely scenario), and no loss if Hawkins wins. Higgins goes on to win.
The odds fluctuate a lot, so it's worth waiting until you get a decent price on the likely winner, e.g. if he goes behind.
Another good source of value - Sky Bet do a lot of price boosts, often doubling the odds on certain bets. I've had a good number of winners recently which I didn't particularly fancy but backed because they were great value. Good example was recent Porto - Liverpool game. They boost the odds on Salah and Firmino both scoring from 4/1 to 8/1. I wouldn't have touched that normally, but the value stood out.
More often than not, the boosted price is on a football treble, you can cash out in-play, so if you get in a position when all 3 are winning, it worth looking at this with 10-15 mins to go as it's pretty likely one of them will concede an equaliser.
I used to back horses a lot, but thats a mug's game - you've got one horse running for you , and the rest of the field is running for the bookie. Unless it's exceptional value like the double odds football bets, I stick to bets which only have 2 or 3 possible outcomes / winners.
Grant85
Head Pro
I had a similar theory about T20 cricket as generally the match swings from one team to the other and there will always be a point you can cash out to make a profit, in-play.
However, it is risky as obviously a match where someone dominates and the other team / player doesn't ever get anything going. Also, it will be very tricky to know what the opportune moment, or even a reasonable moment, to cash out is... and its also pretty labour intensive.
Update - found and layed two horses in Australia this morning who managed to lose... so balance up to £64.05. Shut it down for the day.
rudebhoy
Q-School Graduate
the last bet I laid was Greg Norman in The Open. He was 10/1 at the end of Day 2, I thought he had no chance of staying the pace, so laid him to lose £200. He was still leading on the last day with 6 or 7 to play, it was pretty nerve wracking to watch, hardest £20 I've ever earned!
fundy
Ryder Cup Winner
Ive been trading cricket in play for 10 years or so now, there is definitely money to be made if you know what you are doing. Entry points are critical and its definitely getting harder as the markets dont overreact anywhere near as much as they used to (not to mention people sniping from the ground, corruption etc). Its certainly not easy money as some seem to think it must be
rudebhoy
Q-School Graduate
Mentioned the Sky Bet Boosts earlier.
Last night they boosted Lukaku anytime scorer from 5/4 to 2/1. Wouldn't have looked at that bet at 5/4, but 2/1 was cracking value, in effect saying that the likelihood of him scoring was 1 in 3. Well overpriced, had a few quid on it and it duly came up.
Seeking out value is definitely the best way to bet long term.
Last night they boosted Lukaku anytime scorer from 5/4 to 2/1. Wouldn't have looked at that bet at 5/4, but 2/1 was cracking value, in effect saying that the likelihood of him scoring was 1 in 3. Well overpriced, had a few quid on it and it duly came up.
Seeking out value is definitely the best way to bet long term.
Grant85
Head Pro
Laying golf tournaments is potentially a legitimate strategy as obviously with a field of 125 players, there is only going to be 1 winner.
However you need to have deep pockets and obviously money is tied up for 4 or 5 days during the event.
It seems like laying a fiver on a 100/1 shot and sitting for 4 days to get your £505 back is easy money, but like I said, it's a long time to wait... and there's always a Danny Willett or Paul Lawrie lurking at these events who can have the week of their life.
Update - business done for the day... balance now £68.03.
rudebhoy
Q-School Graduate
Like you say, laying at massive prices could be potentially disastrous. There was a famous FA Cup game when Spurs were 3-0 up at home at half time against Man City who were down to 10 men. City were laid at 1000/1 at half time, only to come out and win 4-3!
Coffey
Challenge Tour Pro
I used to do a similar thing on Betfair betting on football matches having under 6.5 and 7.5 goals.
You would look to make around 10% per bet. With the whole balance going onto the next bet. It starts slow but it does build up quite quickly once you get going.
If you find a game which gets an early goal you can normally get better odds.
Started with £10 and built it up to about £140. Put it all onto a Spanish match which I think was 1-0 at about the 20th min. All going well until the second half were it very very quickly went to 3-3. I manage to cash out for about £80. The game ended up 6-5 or something ridiculous.
I took my £80 and was happy with it! It was a lot of work for £70 but I was a student and it was fun (apart from nearly losing £140).
It does work, patience is key, do not rush into any bets and feel like you HAVE to bet every day. Make sure you do your own research and do not trust any of the FB groups as previously mentioned. Quick look at sites such as soccerway.com to check previous results etc really helps.
You would look to make around 10% per bet. With the whole balance going onto the next bet. It starts slow but it does build up quite quickly once you get going.
If you find a game which gets an early goal you can normally get better odds.
Started with £10 and built it up to about £140. Put it all onto a Spanish match which I think was 1-0 at about the 20th min. All going well until the second half were it very very quickly went to 3-3. I manage to cash out for about £80. The game ended up 6-5 or something ridiculous.
I took my £80 and was happy with it! It was a lot of work for £70 but I was a student and it was fun (apart from nearly losing £140).
It does work, patience is key, do not rush into any bets and feel like you HAVE to bet every day. Make sure you do your own research and do not trust any of the FB groups as previously mentioned. Quick look at sites such as soccerway.com to check previous results etc really helps.
Grant85
Head Pro
Yeh, I definitely think rolling all your cash over onto the next bet is a big tactical error.
means you only need 1 event to go against you & you are back to square 1.
with my £3 a day strategy, the winnings I need are modest enough that I can choose to be very picky on what I bet on and only risk maybe 1/3 of my capital. As my pot grows, this will be a much smaller fraction and will mean I have a much better chance of recovering from a loss.
Also setting the daily target means I am much less likely to make that one bet too many. When you are on a roll of 5 or 6 wins in a row, the next winner seems a dead cert.
means you only need 1 event to go against you & you are back to square 1.
with my £3 a day strategy, the winnings I need are modest enough that I can choose to be very picky on what I bet on and only risk maybe 1/3 of my capital. As my pot grows, this will be a much smaller fraction and will mean I have a much better chance of recovering from a loss.
Also setting the daily target means I am much less likely to make that one bet too many. When you are on a roll of 5 or 6 wins in a row, the next winner seems a dead cert.
U
User62651
Guest
Haven't bet in months (lotto aside) but I've tried the small gains approach for a while in the past on 'dead certs', goes along great as you turn £10 into £25 or whatever over 4 or 5 bets but invariably you get tripped up, set back and lose motivation so either cash out or bet on longer odds and lose.
Good luck, needs some discipline to do what you're doing, it could work though.
What you need is a crystal ball.....or a time machine.
I have a mate who's wife spends at least an hour per day entering competitions you'll find online or in magazines etc. She is dedicated and it does pay off for her. Your odds of winning often aren't that long and that I know of she has won a car and at least 4 holidays of which 2 were ski holidays, one just recently. There are many other smaller things of value too she's won.
Maybe that's a better way to spend time and win stuff of value if not hard cash.
', goes along great as you turn £10 into £25 or whatever over 4 or 5 bets but invariably you get tripped up, set back and lose motivation so either cash out or bet on longer odds and lose.Good luck, needs some discipline to do what you're doing, it could work though.
What you need is a crystal ball.....or a time machine.
I have a mate who's wife spends at least an hour per day entering competitions you'll find online or in magazines etc. She is dedicated and it does pay off for her. Your odds of winning often aren't that long and that I know of she has won a car and at least 4 holidays of which 2 were ski holidays, one just recently. There are many other smaller things of value too she's won.
Maybe that's a better way to spend time and win stuff of value if not hard cash.
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fundy
Ryder Cup Winner
If you do plan on doing more stuff like this would recommend reading up on staking plans, money management, risk and variance, you'll realise how destined almost all of these roll up approaches are to failure and that a far more conservative approach is really the only long term approach if you want to continue to be profitable
Kellfire
Blackballed
If you lay a fiver on 100/1 shot, you don't win £505. You win £5.05!
Grant85
Head Pro
I'm well aware, but you would have the £500 tied up until the competition was finished so would have to wait for your £505 back.
fundy
Ryder Cup Winner
surely you win a fiver not 5.05?
ColchesterFC
Journeyman Pro
In terms of actual "winnings" my understanding is that you would only win 5p with the £5 being your original stake and not winnings.
fundy
Ryder Cup Winner
I think he means hes laid a fiver to five hundred not 5p to a fiver but get what youre saying yes
Grant85
Head Pro
Anyways... bad news.
Thursday last week, I layed 3 consecutive horses - all who won. I was at about £75 in my balance, which was wiped out in an hour or so.
All fitted my criteria of being 12 or 15 to 1 shots with 3 or 4 shorter priced horses ahead of them, and having no wins in their last 6 races.
Obviously, there was always a chance of finding a run like that - but this was particularly bad luck.
In hindsight, perhaps I would have been better waiting for bigger races, with a deeper market.
So - the game is over.
Thursday last week, I layed 3 consecutive horses - all who won. I was at about £75 in my balance, which was wiped out in an hour or so.
All fitted my criteria of being 12 or 15 to 1 shots with 3 or 4 shorter priced horses ahead of them, and having no wins in their last 6 races.
Obviously, there was always a chance of finding a run like that - but this was particularly bad luck.
In hindsight, perhaps I would have been better waiting for bigger races, with a deeper market.
So - the game is over.
