Weather forecastes

[need_my_wedge]

I've always found the Met Office app pretty decent, or good enough at least. I'm only looking for the percentage chance of rain in the area. I've got Yahoo, which is always a grim forecast so don't use it much, xcweather is usually on a par with the Met office App, and BBC is ........ok? I really only use the Met Office, and only look at the others if the Met Office is a bad forecast and I'm hoping they're more optimistic....

 

[patricks148]

I live about 20.miles from my home course and tbh when ever I pay attention to the WF it's wrong so just go on the whole. We do have a webcam so can look at that, not much use in winters as it's usually dark when I have to leave.

 

[Imurg]

Less than 5% chance of rain they said...less than 5%.
Yeah right....

 

[fundy]

Less than 5% chance of rain they said...less than 5%.
Yeah right....

so youre saying there was a chance............

 

[cliveb]

so youre saying there was a chance............

The Met Office never declares 0% or 100%
When they say <5% or >95%, what they mean is they are sure it definitely won't/will rain.
And they are often wrong, at least here in Devon.

 

[Genu9]

Netweather.tv updated every 20 mins. Every 5 mins on subscribed service and is generally fairly accurate.

 

[D-S]

I just wish they would give a % certainty of their forecast. If it really could be one thing or the other why not say ‘we are unsure’. It’s when they are saying 80% chance of rain 24 hours out or even on the day itself and it turns out to be cloudless blue skies (as happened twice last week) they must know that it could go either way. If they really don’t know for a given day or period leave the forecast blank.

 

[Jigger]

I thought the BBC got their forecasts from the Met Office

Had to cut back to a cheaper version to give Gary Lineker another pay rise.

 

[CliveW]

Google YR It is a Norwegian forecast site and the most accurate one I have found.

 

[YandaB]

I can find sites that for each hour give a percentage chance of rain (e.g. Met Office) and I can find sites that give a prediction of mm of rain (e.g. netweather), what I really want for each hour is a small grid that gives the percentage chance by mm of rain (with a max mm for scale), Anyone seen that somewhere?

PS the met office seem to have a very stong correlation between the chance of rain and the symbol indicating the amount which bugs me.

 

[backwoodsman]

Google YR It is a Norwegian forecast site and the most accurate one I have found.

This is the one I use.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Given our very variable and unpredictable maritime climate I was once told that in periods of unsettled weather most of the time the weather (actually will it rain or not) will be the same for no more than two consecutive days. Yesterday it poured; Thursday it poured, so chances are today will be dry; and chances are tomorrow will be dry, Monday will be different…will it rain. Maybe. But it will be different.

 

[PJ87]

Less than 5% chance of rain they said...less than 5%.
Yeah right....

Something I found out few months ago it isn't 5% chance

It's in the area you have looked up less than 5% of that area will see rain

Likewise when it's 90% then 90% of that area will see rain

Total mind blowing stuff

 

[woofers]

Something I found out few months ago it isn't 5% chance

It's in the area you have looked up less than 5% of that area will see rain

Likewise when it's 90% then 90% of that area will see rain

Total mind blowing stuff

On the Met Office site, the little ”i” icon says :
Chance of precipitation
×
Chance of precipitation represents how likely it is that rain (or other types of precipitation, such as sleet, snow, hail and drizzle) will fall from the sky at a certain time.

 

[Alan Clifford]

Something I found out few months ago it isn't 5% chance

It's in the area you have looked up less than 5% of that area will see rain

Likewise when it's 90% then 90% of that area will see rain

Total mind blowing stuff

I look up the report for "Merrow". Merrow is a pretty small place so it is unlikely that 10% of it would receive rain and the other 90% would not. And the BBC uses "... chance of precipitation ...". If they are talking about a percentage of an undefined area receiving precipitation, then they are using the wrong word.

 

[patricks148]

I used to use a site called Wonderground, it tied into lots of small weather stations it was particularly good for when I was a member at tain as that's 40 miles north so could be very different from Inverness.
Went to paid subscription and I'm tight

 

[cliveb]

Something I found out few months ago it isn't 5% chance

It's in the area you have looked up less than 5% of that area will see rain

Likewise when it's 90% then 90% of that area will see rain

Total mind blowing stuff

My understanding is that the forecasts use Monte Carlo prediction techniques. Because weather is a complex chaotic system, tiny differences in starting conditions can have huge impacts on what happens.
So they run the same model dozens of times with slightly different starting conditions. If 90% of those model runs predict rain, then they report a 90% chance of rain, and so on.

 

[Jason.H]

I thought the BBC got their forecasts from the Met Office

I have BBC and Met office weather apps. They are never the same forecast

 

[PJ87]

I have BBC and Met office weather apps. They are never the same forecast

I use 2 apps and the BBC website.

All the apps said diff story for Thursday Friday at princes

Even day 2 the met had 32mm of rain at midday on the radar map thing

Kept changing

In the end both days we had zero rain during golf

Where as it was suppose to be a wash out lol ?

 

[Alan Clifford]

My understanding is that the forecasts use Monte Carlo prediction techniques. Because weather is a complex chaotic system, tiny differences in starting conditions can have huge impacts on what happens.
So they run the same model dozens of times with slightly different starting conditions. If 90% of those model runs predict rain, then they report a 90% chance of rain, and so on.

That seems a logical explanation of why they have percentages.

It still doesn't help when the BBC reports 85% and the Met. Office 10%