The Virus anybody else done the maths

[rulefan]

the UK are proceeding on the presumption that Covid was the cause of death unless proved otherwise

Just on that point. You will notice that when the newscasters announce death figures, they describe them as 'associated with', 'related to' CV or similar words. They correspond with the three boxes on the death certificate. That means it includes primary cause, secondary cause and also has symptoms. see #148

 

[MegaSteve]

I spoke to my elderly auntie, at the beginning of the outbreak/lockdown... Who said something along the lines of "I don't care what others are saying this is nothing like a war other than a fascination of numbers will happen"...

 

[JustOne]

I'm not sure if the EXACT figures are that important, a rough count is enough for me. Making comparisons between Countries is really queer as the differences have to take so many things into consideration - an approximate will do. If Germany have 140,000 cases or 180,000 I don't think it matters..... however if they suddenly only have 50 cases then I'm interested!
I don't really care if they've reported an extra 50 cases because some people passed away at home and we haven't counted ours... it's not a competition

 

[SocketRocket]

I'm not sure if the EXACT figures are that important, a rough count is enough for me. Making comparisons between Countries is really queer as the differences have to take so many things into consideration - an approximate will do. If Germany have 140,000 cases or 180,000 I don't think it matters..... however if they suddenly only have 50 cases then I'm interested!
I don't really care if they've reported an extra 50 cases because some people passed away at home and we haven't counted ours... it's not a competition

But there is something interesting in Germanies stats. They have a very high infection rate but a very low reported death rate. How is this possible, either the people catching it are generally much younger or they have a better way of treating infected people or they are not reporting the death rates in a similar way to other countries.

 

[User20204]

But there is something interesting in Germanies stats. They have a very high infection rate but a very low reported death rate. How is this possible, either the people catching it are generally much younger or they have a better way of treating infected people or they are not reporting the death rates in a similar way to other countries.

Hasn't your question already been answered, they are reporting deaths OF CV19 not connected to CV19, and no, I don't have a link to it.

 

[cliveb]

But there is something interesting in Germanies stats. They have a very high infection rate but a very low reported death rate. How is this possible, either the people catching it are generally much younger or they have a better way of treating infected people or they are not reporting the death rates in a similar way to other countries.

Since they have tested very extensively, they will have found far more cases with mild symptoms. Perhaps the real death rate among the entire population is actually much lower than we think. This is why an antibody test is so urgent - if we can demonstrate that a large number of people have had it and recovered, the situation won't look so bleak.

 

[Blue in Munich]

But there is something interesting in Germanies stats. They have a very high infection rate but a very low reported death rate. How is this possible, either the people catching it are generally much younger or they have a better way of treating infected people or they are not reporting the death rates in a similar way to other countries.

Since they have tested very extensively, they will have found far more cases with mild symptoms. Perhaps the real death rate among the entire population is actually much lower than we think. This is why an antibody test is so urgent - if we can demonstrate that a large number of people have had it and recovered, the situation won't look so bleak.

There is also something that the Germans seem to have found in their testing that can predict when the patients are likely to take a sudden downturn; these people are admitted to hospital and either treated proactively or in a position to be treated as soon as it happens rather than being taken ill, admitted and treated reactively. I believe I posted a link to it somewhere, if I find it I'll re-post it.

Re the bit I bolded, there was an Oxford University study that said very similar over here, reported in the FT, and there was aloso a link to that somewhere that I posted.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Overpopulation is an odd one, parts of UK are very populated, Netherlands too, way more than China and nearly all of Africa for example, however we have the means to feed ourselves because we have ample rainfall and advanced agriculture that also encourages some decent environmental protections.
I think if you stood every human on earth side by side it would fill the Isle of Man, doesn't seem so bad if you look at a world map and think of it like that.
If humanity can stop exploiting the earth's natural resources and so changing climate in an insatiable need for personal wealth/greed and think collectively to pursue renewables more heavily and share wealth then the world population can still go up ok.
Alas humans are largely short termist and selfish by nature.
Capitalism and greed will do us in if we don't change.

Grow food not lawns.....

.....Right then, off to cut the grass with my old 2 stroke Flymo.

Absolutely spot on…….....do I think the UK public would vote for that sort of reform..........never, the majority are far too selfish and greedy.

Re population overcrowding, I live on the edge of one of the largest unpopulated areas of the UK.
When I hear folk winging on about overcrowded UK I just think that they should get out a bit more and look around them, visit the Flow Country, The Fens, The Galloway Forrest the Isle of Mull.
Perhaps after this CoVid19 thing dies down we may see a change.........new TV programmes like Move To A Remote Underpopulated Island will start re population trends.

 

[funkycoldmedina]

There is also something that the Germans seem to have found in their testing that can predict when the patients are likely to take a sudden downturn; these people are admitted to hospital and either treated proactively or in a position to be treated as soon as it happens rather than being taken ill, admitted and treated reactively. I believe I posted a link to it somewhere, if I find it I'll re-post it.

Re the bit I bolded, there was an Oxford University study that said very similar over here, reported in the FT, and there was aloso a link to that somewhere that I posted.

It's shows why extensive early testing was really needed.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

There is also something that the Germans seem to have found in their testing that can predict when the patients are likely to take a sudden downturn; these people are admitted to hospital and either treated proactively or in a position to be treated as soon as it happens rather than being taken ill, admitted and treated reactively. I believe I posted a link to it somewhere, if I find it I'll re-post it.

Re the bit I bolded, there was an Oxford University study that said very similar over here, reported in the FT, and there was aloso a link to that somewhere that I posted.

Not sure that is the case. Wouldn't they then share that medical knowledge?
As you say, it would be very important for treatment and I don't think it is something that would be suppressed, deliberately or otherwise.
It is likely that their better figures ( high infection, low deaths) are down to more testing and not including deaths where the cause is clearly other than covid causing the death. E.g. Heart attack, strokes. .
I considered that good news as it shows the death percentage from covid to be not so frighteningly high.
However, it's statistics. The Germans might want to be reassuring, hence their method. The UK however might be scared of accusations of cover up if they did not record all deaths of those who had positive covid results.

 

[SocketRocket]

Absolutely spot on…….....do I think the UK public would vote for that sort of reform..........never, the majority are far too selfish and greedy.

Re population overcrowding, I live on the edge of one of the largest unpopulated areas of the UK.
When I hear folk winging on about overcrowded UK I just think that they should get out a bit more and look around them, visit the Flow Country, The Fens, The Galloway Forrest the Isle of Mull.
Perhaps after this CoVid19 thing dies down we may see a change.........new TV programmes like Move To A Remote Underpopulated Island will start re population trends.

I see, you live in an area with low population(and theres a reason why its like that) so theres no problem with population. England has one of the highest populations per sq mile in the world. 9.3 million in London.
How do you move large numbers of people to remote areas like the Isle of Mull where there is no work or Infastructure. This has to be you Trolling.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

It's shows why extensive early testing was really needed.

Again not sure that's practical. The resources needed to test are considerable.
Are you suggesting you test the population, just in case they have it, or to be able to work out a true percentage of serious or fatal cases?
Say that you test each household member of someone who has covid. (That may be practical)
So they show positive. You couldn't possibly justify hospital admission unless and until they deteriorate. Most people do not deteriorate, they have mild to mid symptoms. More importantly, most who do deteriorate do so after a few days, maybe a week, not immediately. It would be a complete guessing game.
The NHS ability to deal with proactive treatment of that is just not possible.
You could possibly make a case for proactive treatment of the vulnerable group who test positive, and it would be great if you could, but I doubt even that is able to be handled by the NHS. The numbers would be too high.
Today, I read of plans to test several thousand households so that trends can be forecast etc. As I understand it,there is no suggestion that those showing positive would be treated any sooner than they would be at present.

However, as a matter of interest, and associated with this subject, did you see the reports that France are going to issue nicotine patches to positives and some health workers( as a preventative measure)?
The rationale is that they are giving some credence to findings that suggest that nicotine may hamper the progress of covid and/or stop the body's immune system from overreacting to the covid virus, thus stopping the patient becoming seriously ill.
Seems that smokers may have an advantage, nicotine-wise.

If that turns out to have some merit, then , yes, test away and if positive ,slap on the old nicotine patch sharpish. ?

 

[BubbaP]

Not quite sure which thread is for what these days, but probably best here.

Context is the accuracy of numbers being reported - and as previously discussed the impact on poorer areas.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/americas/ecuador-deaths-coronavirus.html

 

[BubbaP]

Many of us having been asking for some understandable stats on real impact, which we knew would take a bit of time. This is telling;

 

[BubbaP]

Finally a bit of insight into Belgium
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52491210

 

[cliveb]

Finally a bit of insight into Belgium
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52491210

- Belgium is including any death that is suspected as Covid-19, even though it may not be known.
- UK is including any death where Covid-19 is present, even if the death might have been caused by some other issue.
- Germany (if I am reading things correctly) is including any death that is known to be caused by Covid-19.
So it seems that in Europe any comparison between stats is basically apples & oranges (and bananas).

The thing that frustrates me most of all is that I see no concerted effort to get a reliable estimate of how many people have actually had Covid-19 and recovered without ever involving the heath services. (Or maybe it's just that the BBC choose not to report on things like this, because it wouldn't be an attention-grabber).
I personally know many people who think they've probably had it.
You don't need to check everyone - a random sampling of just a few thousand people would be statistically significant.

 

[BubbaP]

I think your summary is likely correct, I guess there is no world authority that can impose consistency so the best you can do is have the rules each country using explained. Not sure why that take so long to share though.

 

[Blue in Munich]

And just to add something else into the mix, how many not fully explained deaths that occurred before the pandemic was declared have slipped through the net. I'm of the opinion that this has been around for a while longer than the time that we started attributing the deaths to it.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

And just to add something else into the mix, how many not fully explained deaths that occurred before the pandemic was declared have slipped through the net. I'm of the opinion that this has been around for a while longer than the time that we started attributing the deaths to it.

I wouldn't disagree with that suspicion.

 

[Hobbit]

On the day Spain went into lockdown there were just over 9,000 active cases. Today, as Spain start to go through the phases of de-escalation there are just over 75,000 active cases.

On the day of lockdown there was a bit of a dip in deaths, 48, but had been 193 and 191 either side of lockdown day. Yesterday there were 281.

The capacity and knowledge of the health service here is no doubt better than on lockdown day but it still feels a little uncomfortable to be unlocking.