The Virus anybody else done the maths

[cliveb]

The thread title is "anyone done the maths". So putting aside moral and emotional arguments, the simple maths are that even if the death rate was 10% and the entire population of the planet caught it, we're looking at 700 million dead. And the overwhelming majority of those will be - how can I put this - the less economically useful. Quite frankly that would probably do some good for the world. Tragic for those affected, of course, but in the grand scheme of things something that may be needed from time to time.

Lest anyone thinks I'm seriously advocating that we should just let it rip through the population, that's not my position, because that WOULD be immoral.

 

[BubbaP]

Having recently been on that worldometer site, I did notice on the main page they list the world population growth. I guess it must be a load of algorithms but interesting none the less. Anyway...

 

[BubbaP]

Does anyone know the population size that corresponds with "London" on here?
Wanted to context check against New York & New Jersey.

 

[SocketRocket]

Does anyone know the population size that corresponds with "London" on here?
View attachment 30077Wanted to context check against New York & New Jersey.

London has a population of 9.3 million. Not sure if that's what you're asking though.

 

[SocketRocket]

The thread title is "anyone done the maths". So putting aside moral and emotional arguments, the simple maths are that even if the death rate was 10% and the entire population of the planet caught it, we're looking at 700 million dead. And the overwhelming majority of those will be - how can I put this - the less economically useful. Quite frankly that would probably do some good for the world. Tragic for those affected, of course, but in the grand scheme of things something that may be needed from time to time.

Lest anyone thinks I'm seriously advocating that we should just let it rip through the population, that's not my position, because that WOULD be immoral.

You dont advocate it but it would do some good for the world.
Maybe when your time comes around you may have a different outlook.

 

[Blue in Munich]

The thread title is "anyone done the maths". So putting aside moral and emotional arguments, the simple maths are that even if the death rate was 10% and the entire population of the planet caught it, we're looking at 700 million dead. And the overwhelming majority of those will be - how can I put this - the less economically useful. Quite frankly that would probably do some good for the world. Tragic for those affected, of course, but in the grand scheme of things something that may be needed from time to time.

Lest anyone thinks I'm seriously advocating that we should just let it rip through the population, that's not my position, because that WOULD be immoral.

Whilst I fully understand the point you are making, I fear your choice of "less economically useful" is unfortunate.

Nurses are "less economically useful", bankers and hedge fund managers are "more economically useful". I know who we could do with more of at this time and it's not the "more economically useful". As we are now finding out, the value of people to society doesn't necessarily equate to their economic use; in fact I'd go as far as to say it might be inversely proportional. It may even prove to be that the business practices of some of the "more economically useful" members of society are in no small way to blame for the position we find ourselves in.

 

[cliveb]

Whilst I fully understand the point you are making, I fear your choice of "less economically useful" is unfortunate.

Nurses are "less economically useful", bankers and hedge fund managers are "more economically useful".

I was afraid that trying to use the least inflammatory phrase I could think of would be misinterpreted, and I see that I was right. In hindsight I shouldn't have used the word "economically". Of course nurses are far more useful than bankers and hedge fund managers.

Let's be blunt: the majority of people that Covid-19 kills tend to be old and/or in poor health, and these are the people the world can survive without.

Once again: I'm not suggesting we should just let them die with impunity - that would be callous in the extreme - but that the eventual outcome of this crisis might actually be of some benefit from a hard-nosed unemotional perspective.

 

[SocketRocket]

I was afraid that trying to use the least inflammatory phrase I could think of would be misinterpreted, and I see that I was right. In hindsight I shouldn't have used the word "economically". Of course nurses are far more useful than bankers and hedge fund managers.

Let's be blunt: the majority of people that Covid-19 kills tend to be old and/or in poor health, and these are the people the world can survive without.

Once again: I'm not suggesting we should just let them die with impunity - that would be callous in the extreme - but that the eventual outcome of this crisis might actually be of some benefit from a hard-nosed unemotional perspective.

I know what you can do with your 'hard-nosed unemotional perspective' Do you honestly believe the death of old people could be a desirable outcome . Really! Please explain why you think its desirable, do they not deserve to live out their old age in peace. Do you have Parents, if so would you consider their premature death some benefit from a hard-nosed unemotional perspective. Please stop to think about what you've posted and how upsetting this could be to some people reading this, some may have lost loved ones to Covid. I'll stop here before I say something I may regret.

 

[Blue in Munich]

I was afraid that trying to use the least inflammatory phrase I could think of would be misinterpreted, and I see that I was right. In hindsight I shouldn't have used the word "economically". Of course nurses are far more useful than bankers and hedge fund managers.

Let's be blunt: the majority of people that Covid-19 kills tend to be old and/or in poor health, and these are the people the world can survive without.

Once again: I'm not suggesting we should just let them die with impunity - that would be callous in the extreme - but that the eventual outcome of this crisis might actually be of some benefit from a hard-nosed unemotional perspective.

No, you are not right; I didn’t misinterpret anything. I know exactly the point you were trying to make, but a reference to Darwinism might have been more appropriate than people’s economic value to society, if the post needed to be made at all.

Trust me that if I hadn’t understood your post, my description of it would have been a lot more harsh than unfortunate.

Goodnight.

 

[cliveb]

Please stop to think about what you've posted and how upsetting this could be to some people reading this, some may have lost loved ones to Covid. I'll stop here before I say something I may regret.

Ok, I apologise. I thought this thread was about the statistics rather than the morals but I clearly misjudged that.

 

[Leftie]

Let's be blunt: the majority of people that Covid-19 kills tend to be old and/or in poor health, and these are the people the world can survive without.

Once again: I'm not suggesting we should just let them die with impunity - that would be callous in the extreme - but that the eventual outcome of this crisis might actually be of some benefit from a hard-nosed unemotional perspective.

Gee thanks. I'm glad I'm not your father/grandfather. I really cannot believe the ageism shown throughout this Forum - not just on this thread.

 

[SocketRocket]

Ok, I apologise. I thought this thread was about the statistics rather than the morals but I clearly misjudged that.

OK but in that case keep to the numbers and leave the opinions on the value of peoples lives.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

If anyone is into graphs, this FT guy has some good information graphs :-

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch

Covers things like hospital admissions, deaths, cases, daily graphs, also in the the history has other interesting graphs.

Beats watching telly in the evening I suppose.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

I note they said the reason for the discrepancies was their health services were overwhelmed.
Yet they still would have us believe they had less than 4,000 deaths ?

Out of interest do you believe the figures that the UK government are announcing.
[Bearing in mind that England have still to count Care Home and other deaths that were pretty obviously Covid 19 related.]

 

[ferenezejohn]

Just stop Clive, please.

Out of interest do you believe the figures that the UK government are announcing.
[Bearing in mind that England have still to count Care Home and other deaths that were pretty obviously Covid 19 related.]

The UK's death toll will not be 100% accurate.
However your not seeing doctors here disappear and state censorship and journalist being thrown out the country.
Many countries believe Chinese deaths being reported are no where near realistic, but unlike the UK we will only get information from dissidents who put their lives in danger under a vile regime.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

The UK's death toll will not be 100% accurate.
However your not seeing doctors here disappear and state censorship and journalist being thrown out the country.
Many countries believe Chinese deaths being reported are no where near realistic, but unlike the UK we will only get information from dissidents who put their lives in danger under a vile regime.

I did not mention China for comparison.
Just wanted to know if you trusted the UK figures, thanks for your reply.

 

[ferenezejohn]

I did not mention China for comparison.
Just wanted to know if you trusted the UK figures, thanks for your reply.

I don't think the UK are trying to hide anything there might have been a better way to collate the overall figures.

 

[BubbaP]

Out of interest do you believe the figures that the UK government are announcing.
[Bearing in mind that England have still to count Care Home and other deaths that were pretty obviously Covid 19 related.]

Whenever I've seen the figures it's been really clear what they do and don't include. So it seems an odd question to ask, to me.

 

[BubbaP]

Back to maths, some sombre milestones today.

Belgium went over 500 reported deaths per million population.
New York State went over 1000 reported deaths per million population.

Incidentally, Connecticut where the PGA Tour is hoping to resume is currently at 397. Whilst maybe inappropriate to compare (especially a less populated state), Italy is at 408.

 

[User20204]

Just stop Clive, please.

This is what's actually wrong with internet forums IMO.

People make a post, probably quite factual, yet some don't want to face up to it.

What the fella Clive is saying, regardless of how some snowflakes may feel about it, if right, we probably need to face up to a lot more harsher realities than someone posting up stuff like that.

Lets be honest, the world could do with losing a couple of billion people as harsh as that sounds.