The Virus anybody else done the maths

[rulefan]

Population density is key surely?

Exactly

 

[PhilTheFragger]

Think you have to also consider cities there size and how the accommodation is .. I would be interested in Tokyo as they are totally rammed, Monaco as well is rammed ... They were saying that in New York it was the poor areas that were hit, but they to are close together.
Population density is key surely?

This is why I fear that India has a huge problem brewing, when the cities went into lockdown, the millions of migrant workers all went home to rural India, no idea how many were infected, but it’s going to spread ?

 

[User62651]

Think you have to also consider cities there size and how the accommodation is .. I would be interested in Tokyo as they are totally rammed, Monaco as well is rammed ... They were saying that in New York it was the poor areas that were hit, but they to are close together.
Population density is key surely?

If that is key what about the favelas in Brazil and poor urban sprawls through Africa where you'd imagine healthcare is limited. Would be rife.

Edit: of course age demographic is much younger there which will help them.

 

[IanM]

I’d be surprised if the world total was accurate....some places won’t report properly, others cannot report it properly

and density of population is significant. (Both meaning of density)

 

[Hobbit]

If that is key what about the favelas in Brazil and poor urban sprawls through Africa where you'd imagine healthcare is limited. Would be rife.

Edit: of course age demographic is much younger there which will help them.

Not sure the age demographic will be as much of a protection as you might think. You might find that a 50 yr old from a poor slum area, poor nutrition etc is no healthier than a 65 yr old in a more developed country.

 

[BubbaP]

I suspect those countries with more benefit of time, who also introduced lockdowns/restrictions while the numbers are small and in the "track n trace" stage have a decent chance of staying pretty low relative to population (e.g. Mauritius were slab is).
With hindsight, several countries in Europe were caught with their pants down.
Agree with the concerns in previous posts about the population density & poverty
Expect the USA to influence the numbers over the next couple of weeks - it's such a big place.
Read earlier that Moscow's hospitals were seriously struggling and Russia has barely registered on the world numbers, which reinforces it is that speed and localisation that creates such a challenge.

 

[BubbaP]

@maxfli65 not that it makes any difference to the general point, I'd guess the UK will be reporting hiting 10,000+ on Sunday.

 

[rulefan]

Read earlier that Moscow's hospitals were seriously struggling and Russia has barely registered on the world numbers, which reinforces it is that speed and localisation that creates such a challenge.

I wonder how reliable the figures published from Russia are really.

 

[Imurg]

I wonder how reliable the figures published from Russia are really.

With the different reporting methods and timescales from every country can we really take any of the figures from anywhere as reliable..?

 

[MegaSteve]

@maxfli65 not that it makes any difference to the general point, I'd guess the UK will be reporting hiting 10,000+ on Sunday.

As the reported deaths are only those that have died in a hospital... I wouldn't be surprised if the UK hasn't already passed the 10,000+ mark if adding on those, not reported, away from a hospital... Terrible numbers whichever way you look at it...

 

[Bigfoot]

With the different reporting methods and timescales from every country can we really take any of the figures from anywhere as reliable..?

They are probably all reliable for that country at that moment and the method of counting - but certainly not comparable. Believable is another point.

 

[BubbaP]

Notwithstanding the unreliability, as of now taking into account population (& excluding tiny countries), this is the order of impact.

Spain

Italy

Belgium

France

Netherlands

UK

Switzerland

Luxembourg

Sweden

Ireland

USA

 

[PhilTheFragger]

Notwithstanding the unreliability, as of now taking into account population (& excluding tiny countries), this is the order of impact.

Spain

Italy

Belgium

France

Netherlands

UK

Switzerland

Luxembourg

Sweden

Ireland

USA

last time I looked Luxembourg was a small country of about 600k inhabitants.

Still interesting to see the figures in perspective.

Obviously USA has a huge population, so 20k deaths is small in terms of a percentage. But still tragic

Once this is all over, it’s going to interesting from a stats view to look at the actual deaths compared to the normal expected death rates for each age group.

Some are saying 30% higher than normal

It will also be interesting to compare the countries with advanced care facilities with those with less advanced or none

Or indeed countries with high populations, good facilities in cities, but poor in very rural areas, ie India

 

[BubbaP]

last time I looked Luxembourg was a small country of about 600k inhabitants.

Still interesting to see the figures in perspective.

Obviously USA has a huge population, so 20k deaths is small in terms of a percentage. But still tragic

Once this is all over, it’s going to interesting from a stats view to look at the actual deaths compared to the normal expected death rates for each age group.

Some are saying 30% higher than normal

It will also be interesting to compare the countries with advanced care facilities with those with less advanced or none

Or indeed countries with high populations, good facilities in cities, but poor in very rural areas, ie India

Yeah I hesitated with Luxembourg, but with them having reported over 60 deaths I left them in (took out San Marino, Andorra etc.)

On the site you can see the US states listed on their own. Using the same measure, New York is unfortunately way ahead.

Yeah, once further down the line, the looking back analysis will be interesting, if sad.

 

[BubbaP]

Notwithstanding the unreliability, as of now taking into account population (& excluding tiny countries), this is the order of impact.

Spain
Italy
Belgium
France
Netherlands
UK
Switzerland
Luxembourg
Sweden
Ireland
USA

Just thought I'd repost to see the changes. BBC have just done a piece on updates from around Europe, but still no mention of Belgium - baffled ?‍

Belgium 419
Spain 409
Italy 367
France 275
UK 202
Netherlands 193
Switzerland 148
Sweden 132
Luxembourg 110
USA 102
Ireland 98

 

[ferenezejohn]

We will never know the true scale of deaths, especially from China and Russia.

 

[BubbaP]

We will never know the true scale of deaths, especially from China and Russia.

A start...

'The Chinese city of Wuhan - where the virus emerged - has revised its Covid-19 death toll up by 1,209, to 3,869 - an increase of almost 50%

The total was increased to include some of those who died outside hospital, and because of some delayed reports.

"Obviously it will add to suspicion about China's coronavirus figures," our correspondent says.'

 

[ferenezejohn]

A start...

'The Chinese city of Wuhan - where the virus emerged - has revised its Covid-19 death toll up by 1,209, to 3,869 - an increase of almost 50%

The total was increased to include some of those who died outside hospital, and because of some delayed reports.

"Obviously it will add to suspicion about China's coronavirus figures," our correspondent says.'

I note they said the reason for the discrepancies was their health services were overwhelmed.
Yet they still would have us believe they had less than 4,000 deaths ?

 

[BubbaP]

Referring back to post #95, know shouldn't compare a US state with countries, but NY is apparently 20 million.

Belgium currently 445 / million
New York currently 873 / million
New Jersey 432 / million

Shocking

 

[MadAdey]

The bottom line is the world is screwed, unless we can come up with the cure/vaccination. We just need to do what we can to keep some kind of control over it. The best way to prove that social distancing works is when you look at a meat processing plant here in America. They continued to work and then all of a sudden they have 644 confirmed cases. There is around 1000 people where I work and we shut down weeks ago and I have not heard of anyone getting it.

So anyone who does not think that social distancing works, think again. That unfortunately is our only defense against it. Over here it has only taken 6 weeks to pass a years worth of deaths from the standard old Flu bug.