The next PM.

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Why repeatedly evade the subject if you weren't even in the house? It is an easy story to kill if inaccurate.

And the police will know if he was there. Besides where was he if he was not there? Easy for him to tell us that he was at 23 Railway Cuttings, East Cheam at the time of the incident. And then if it was not him - who the blazes was it having a row with the partner of the future PM.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Looking at Boris Johnson claims about WTO Gatt Article 24 as expressed in the debate earlier this week

https://fullfact.org/europe/boris-johnson-gatt-article-24/

And the Trade Experts on BJ on WTO Gatt Article 24

https://www.politico.eu/article/why-gatt-24-wont-help-a-no-deal-brexit-uk/

And the Bank of England Governor yesterday on BJ on WTO Gatt Article 24

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ismisses-boris-johnson-trade-claim-on-no-deal

Well what do the experts know about this stuff when BJ knows all...trust in BJ.

Better still - I hope that BJ takes this opportunity to put them (and JH as he'll no doubt ask) in their place by telling us why they are wrong and his plan for between now and 31/10 for making trade under WTO Gatt Article 24 happen from 1/11.

Oh dear - BJ misses chance, provided by Sky News, to explain tomorrow how Gatt Article 24 will work post a No Deal Brexit.

 

[User62651]

Main problem for Boris is not how he gets to be PM, that's still pretty much a shoe-in. It's how he's going to meet the pledges he's making about getting out of EU at end October come what may and thereby keep Farage and his hordes at bay.

He is so divisive and marmite people will not compromise for him. Hunt is more likely to be able to cross divides I think, more likely to listen. Hunt is being more realistic and honest about matters currently than Boris.

So already noises of some anti Boris Tory MPs backing a cross party no confidence motion in a future BJ Govt if he attempts to exit with No Deal. He loses that then his Govt is ended and he'd need to resign, then General Election time and new Tory leader? From there would likely be a hung parliament and coalition govt with a good number of new Brexit Party MPs.

How the EU view end October deadline if UK is still in turmoil politically is anyone's guess.

A rainbow coalition that gets nothing done or that finds compromise and gets us moving forward again? However unless Corbyn/McDonnell disappear then that's not going to happen. I could see Hunt speaking to some like Benn/Starmer/Watson/Cooper if they were Labour leaders so making some progress.

Surely the Tory membership who vote on PM in a few weeks can see the bigger picture? They need to pick Hunt but wont, Boris is just winging it.

As many ifs, buts and maybes as ever. Boris becoming PM can't resolve this, too many red lines already.

 

[Foxholer]

Multi-culturalism has been a complete failure and needs a determined effort to change it to an integrated culture.

Please explain what the failings have been! There have certainly been 'conflicts', but certainly not 'a complete failure'!

I'm inclined to believe Multi-culturalism - with certain (reasonable and natural) shared core/fundamental principals - is the ONLY sensible approach!

 

[ColchesterFC]

So already noises of some anti Boris Tory MPs backing a cross party no confidence motion in a future BJ Govt if he attempts to exit with No Deal. He loses that then his Govt is ended and he'd need to resign, then General Election time and new Tory leader? From there would likely be a hung parliament and coalition govt with a good number of new Brexit Party MPs.

Is he forced to resign if he loses a no confidence vote? I thought that it simply meant that they had to try to form new partnerships to get a majority or call a GE at which he could still lead the party?

 

[Foxholer]

Main problem for Boris is not how he gets to be PM, that's still pretty much a shoe-in. It's how he's going to meet the pledges he's making about getting out of EU at end October come what may and thereby keep Farage and his hordes at bay.

He is so divisive and marmite people will not compromise for him. Hunt is more likely to be able to cross divides I think, more likely to listen. Hunt is being more realistic and honest about matters currently than Boris.

So already noises of some anti Boris Tory MPs backing a cross party no confidence motion in a future BJ Govt if he attempts to exit with No Deal. He loses that then his Govt is ended and he'd need to resign, then General Election time and new Tory leader? From there would likely be a hung parliament and coalition govt with a good number of new Brexit Party MPs.

How the EU view end October deadline if UK is still in turmoil politically is anyone's guess.

A rainbow coalition that gets nothing done or that finds compromise and gets us moving forward again? However unless Corbyn/McDonnell disappear then that's not going to happen. I could see Hunt speaking to some like Benn/Starmer/Watson/Cooper if they were Labour leaders so making some progress.

Surely the Tory membership who vote on PM in a few weeks can see the bigger picture? They need to pick Hunt but wont, Boris is just winging it.

As many ifs, buts and maybes as ever. Boris becoming PM can't resolve this, too many red lines already.

I'm certain that EU is tied to text of Article 50, just as much as UK is! And that means that unless an extension is agreed, then UK WILL leave on 31 Oct. And while court rulings mean that Parliament, rather than Executive/Cabinet must 'approve' changes top laws that it (Parliament) has made, EU Law still overrides UK Law until it actually leaves! So the default 'Leave on 31 Oct if no agreement' situation still applies!

I believe any Tory internal conflict would be tempered by the realisation that a GE would mean they would be likely/almost certainly booted out of power! Tory MPs - even knowing his style - have already strongly indicated their preference for him as PM, so I don't see an anti-Boris coup even if there's more disruption on Brexit. It screwing up the economy that is most likely to topple him - and the expected issues caused by Brexit will, imo, actually give him some breathing space, as everyone anticipates initial 'problems'.

Remember that the Tory Party are, generally, extremely focused on their primary aim - staying in power!

 

[Pro Zach]

He's a racist. Have a look at the definition of cultural racism. There is also a term called "othering," which is used to describe a particular culture's attributes as inferior. Clumsy on my part with the definitions but basically his letter box comments are racist.

Cultural racism is NOT racism. It is an idea made up by idiots and introduced into our cultural narrative. It is one of the many irrational ideas in society that makes people think that ‘the worlds gone mad’.

Racism is the discrimination or judgement of people based on race or racial features. As these do not determine the character or behaviour of a person, racism is irrational and wrong.

Cultural racism claims that the discrimination or judgement of people based on culture is the same as racism. This is obscene.

Culture is the ideas, customs, and social behaviour of a particular people or society. The judgement and discrimination of peoples beliefs and social behaviour is not only rational but essential. How anyone could suggest the judgement of people based on their beliefs and behaviour is the same as judging on their skin colour is beyond me.

Do you think the Nazi culture of gassing Jews is acceptable? No? Congratulations, you are a racist.

I think Boris Johnson's comment about the Hijab was inappropriate because of his position. But it doesn’t make him racist. I suspect people think the ‘joke’ was racist and sexist because the only people wearing it are Muslim women. This is a false assumption. We have no evidence or reason to believe he wouldn’t have made the same ‘joke’ if some male Christians and atheist transvestites also wore it.

While I’m here, probably convincing you of nothing, can I also suggest you stop allowing religions to be classed as a race. Religious ideology, like any other ideology, must be open to criticism. ‘Religious racism’ has no more validity than Cultural racism. They are both obnoxious methods of shutting down debate and criticism of beliefs and behaviour.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I'm certain that EU is tied to text of Article 50, just as much as UK is! And that means that unless an extension is agreed, then UK WILL leave on 31 Oct. And while court rulings mean that Parliament, rather than Executive/Cabinet must 'approve' changes top laws that it (Parliament) has made, EU Law still overrides UK Law until it actually leaves! So the default 'Leave on 31 Oct if no agreement' situation still applies!

I believe any Tory internal conflict would be tempered by the realisation that a GE would mean they would be likely/almost certainly booted out of power! Tory MPs - even knowing his style - have already strongly indicated their preference for him as PM, so I don't see an anti-Boris coup even if there's more disruption on Brexit. It screwing up the economy that is most likely to topple him - and the expected issues caused by Brexit will, imo, actually give him some breathing space, as everyone anticipates initial 'problems'.

Remember that the Tory Party are, generally, extremely focused on their primary aim - staying in power!

That might generally have been the case, but that would no longer appear to be so going by the polled views of the Tory party membership (the numbers being so far outside the margin of polling error that I think the polling can be taken to be a reflection of the majority). A Brexit No Deal would seem to be the focus for them - nothing else matters - the polling indicating that Brexit is even more important than the continuing existence of both the Tory Party and the United Kingdom. And that is why they want BJ as PM - as he has promised them that for 31/10 No Ifs - No Buts.

It's a pity tht BJ (my preferred leader of the Tories and new PM) is declining to explain how, before 31/10, he'll get the deal (I suspect his party membership doesn't want) negotiated and signed off by the EU and parliament; and in the event of that not happening by 31/10 what as PM he will do to mitigate risks that have been well articulated, and what risk contingencies he'll have put in place for us leaving with No Deal on 31/10.

Explanation and some detail from him would all be good. But in the interests of becoming leader and PM - it's probably best he doesn't try.

Anyway - a Panelbase/Sunday Times poll suggests that a UK PM called BJ might tip the balance in favour of the pesky Scots going their own way - with 51/49 in favour of staying in the UK switching to 53/47 in favour of leaving with BJ as PM. All just polls. But members f the Conservative and Unionist Party must be careful what they wish for.

https://www.businessinsider.com/sco...hnson-becomes-prime-minister-2019-6?r=US&IR=T

 

[Foxholer]

That might generally have been the case, but that would no longer appear to be so going by the polled views of the Tory party membership (the numbers being so far outside the margin of polling error that I think the polling can be taken to be a reflection of the majority). A Brexit No Deal would seem to be the focus for them - nothing else matters - the polling indicating that Brexit is even more important than the continuing existence of both the Tory Party and the United Kingdom. And that is why they want BJ as PM - as he has promised them that for 31/10 No Ifs - No Buts.
...

Oh, this issue - there's no doubt that sorting out (No) Brexit definitely supercedes all other Tory issues. But doing so in a way that keeps them in power is also a top priority!

I'm uncertain whether a 'No Deal' is the priority/favoured route, but it's certainly at least 2nd choice (after 'Reasonable Deal')! May's 'deal' was neither of those!

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Oh, this issue - there's no doubt that sorting out (No) Brexit definitely supercedes all other Tory issues. But doing so in a way that keeps them in power is also a top priority!

I'm uncertain whether a 'No Deal' is the priority/favoured route, but it's certainly at least 2nd choice (after 'Reasonable Deal')! May's 'deal' was neither of those!

IMO any deal (even if such were possible and agreed before 31/10) will be portrayed as a betrayal of the 'Will of the People' by such as the ERG and TBP. If we care to listen we can hear many Leave voters now explain that the referendum voting paper said Leave or Remain; that as there was no mention of Deal on the voting paper that clearly implies that 17.4m of the electorate voted leave on the basis that he UK leaves without a deal. And that is why BJ is able to commit to leaving on 31/10 - No Ifs No Buts.

 

[Hobbit]

IMO any deal (even if such were possible and agreed before 31/10) will be portrayed as a betrayal of the 'Will of the People' by such as the ERG and the BP. If we care to listen we can hear many Leave voters now explain that the referendum voting paper said Leave or Remain; that as there was no mention of Deal on the voting paper that clearly implies that UK leaves without a deal.

If you could be bothered to look up the speeches made by politicians in the run up to the vote, both sides, especially Remain, were saying out of the customs union and out of the single market. Isn't it a bit perverse that its mainly Remainers who are the ones playing word games with now people know and where's the deal... Many Leavers are just saying Leave.

 

[Foxholer]

IMO any deal (even if such were possible and agreed before 31/10) will be portrayed as a betrayal of the 'Will of the People' by such as the ERG and TBP. If we care to listen we can hear many Leave voters now explain that the referendum voting paper said Leave or Remain; that as there was no mention of Deal on the voting paper that clearly implies that 17.4m of the electorate voted leave on the basis that he UK leaves without a deal. And that is why BJ is able to commit to leaving on 31/10 - No Ifs No Buts.

I completely disagree!

You statement is self-contradictory! As there was no mention of a deal, then all that matters is we leave! 'Leave without a deal' has no greater standing than 'Leave with a deal'! A (decent) deal is preferable, but it's leaving that is essential (if we are to accept the Referendum result). And that's why BJ's 'No If; No Buts' is. imo, the correct approach! It would normally be a better negotiating position too. But, for the reasons the likes of ERG/TBP promote, that's probably irrelevant when negotiating with the, current, EU! I'm pretty certain that 'any deal' would actually be promoted as an achievement, but that's probably just my cynicism. May's deal was certainly promoted as such, but was (potentially) disastrous imo!

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I completely disagree!

You statement is self-contradictory! As there was no mention of a deal, then all that matters is we leave! 'Leave without a deal' has no greater standing than 'Leave with a deal'! A (decent) deal is preferable, but it's leaving that is essential (if we are to accept the Referendum result). And that's why BJ's 'No If; No Buts' is. imo, the correct approach! It would normally be a better negotiating position too. But, for the reasons the likes of ERG/TBP promote, that's probably irrelevant when negotiating with the, current, EU!

I am simply stating what I have heard an increasing number of Leave votes articulate as the rationale for their demanding we leave on 31/10 - even if that means leaving with no deal having been agreed. It is my view that the ERG and TBP actually wish UK to leave without a deal as any attempt to get a deal will simply result in an extension to timescales and that is unacceptable. IMO on 31/10 we will be leaving without a deal and I want BJ to be the PM taking us out on 31/10.

 

[Foxholer]

I am simply stating what I have heard an increasing number of Leave votes articulate as the rationale for their demanding we leave on 31/10 - even if that means leaving with no deal having been agreed. It is my view that the ERG and TBP actually wish UK to leave without a deal as any attempt to get a deal will simply result in an extension to timescales and that is unacceptable. IMO on 31/10 we will be leaving without a deal and I want BJ to be the PM taking us out on 31/10.

Your previous post implied a rather different belief.

The 'even if no deal' approach is my preference (now). I believe that's also the view of ERG/TBP, but agree about an (another!) extension being unacceptable! Happy/Keen for a (decent) deal to be negotiated, but it mustn't require a further extension!

 

[SocketRocket]

Please explain what the failings have been! There have certainly been 'conflicts', but certainly not 'a complete failure'!

I'm inclined to believe Multi-culturalism - with certain (reasonable and natural) shared core/fundamental principals - is the ONLY sensible approach!

This article explains it better than I could:
https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/homo-consumericus/201210/multiculturalism-failed-policy

 

[SocketRocket]

I am simply stating what I have heard an increasing number of Leave votes articulate as the rationale for their demanding we leave on 31/10 - even if that means leaving with no deal having been agreed. It is my view that the ERG and TBP actually wish UK to leave without a deal as any attempt to get a deal will simply result in an extension to timescales and that is unacceptable. IMO on 31/10 we will be leaving without a deal and I want BJ to be the PM taking us out on 31/10.

My preference is for us to leave in October, I would prefer the EU to start negotiations on a Free Trade Arrangement and for us to promise EU citizens rights and the divorce payment in return. There could be an interim period while these talks are taking place where we make contributions to the EU but not as members. If the EU would not concede this then its over and out.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

I think a John Gummer hamburger/ David Mellor family at gate type spin photo is coming your way soon.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

If you could be bothered to look up the speeches made by politicians in the run up to the vote, both sides, especially Remain, were saying out of the customs union and out of the single market. Isn't it a bit perverse that its mainly Remainers who are the ones playing word games with now people know and where's the deal... Many Leavers are just saying Leave.

They are saying that for 17.4m voters Leave has always meant Leave with No Deal despite all the words spoken by the Leave campaign prior to the vote on the sort of Deal we were likely to be aiming for, and when any warning words were spoken by the Remain they were dismissed out of hand as either lies or exaggerations - and not to be believed by any potential Leave voter. In fact my understanding is that the No Deal option for leaving only came into common parlance in October 2016. It really wasn't something that was expected or promoted prior to the vote.

BJ is the man to take us out on 31/10 without a deal agreed as that is what 17.4m of the electorate voted for. Result. Brexit vote delivered.

 

[Hobbit]

Thy are saying that Leave means Leave with No Deal despite all the words spoken prior to the vote on the sort of Deal we were likely to be aiming for. These were just words and when any warning words were spoken by the Remain they were dismissed out of hand as either lies or exaggerations - and not to be believede by any potential Leave voter. In fact my understanding is that the No Deal option for leaving only came into common parlance in October 2016. It really wasn't something that was expected or promoted prior to the vote.

Cameron, Clegg and Osbourne said no customs union and no single market numerous times BEFORE the referendum. Boris, Gove and Farage also spoke of of Leave meaning no CU and no SM. They spoke of negotiating a good deal with the EU. And what deal did May come back with?

I don't see why No Deal shouldn't be spoken about, and I think thats a good thing. If the EU think the UK won't leave without a deal they know that they can put a poor deal on the table and the UK will either accept or not leave.

What can the UK offer the EU for a decent deal. Money, access to the fishing grounds, equitable tariffs/no tariffs/equitable pricing on agri goods. And what did May agree to? You can have £39bn, you can have continued access to the fishing grounds, you can have everything you've asked for with regards to agri goods(inc. a monitoring organisation set up by the UK that reports to the EU on pricing and standards, and any deviation will see the UK in the European courts). And the UK got what? Sweet FA apart from a letter to talk about the future relationship - wow!

Just for a second, irrespective of the impact on trade either way, what will the EU most desperately need if the UK leaves the EU? It will need to fill a 14% drop in its income. It will need to find a minimum of £10bn a year. What is the UK's main bargaining chip? We could say its access for businesses but the EU doesn't seem to have a problem cutting them adrift. Its money!

Here's an idea; lets give the EU £39bn, for nothing in return. Lets give them access to the fishing grounds for nothing in return. Lets set up the UK's agriculture totally aligned to the EU, including pricing set by the EU, for nothing in return. OR the UK could say we will buy access to your trade markets at favourable rates, and we will sell you access to our fishing grounds and we will give you a favourable deal that gets pretty close to your CAP. You want money, we want a favourable deal............. and then there's May's BRINO that is not even good enough to call a disgrace.

The EU bluffed the UK with a pair of 2's, and the UK folded on their pair of 2's, giving the pot of gold to the EU.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Oh dear - BJ misses chance, provided by Sky News, to explain tomorrow how Gatt Article 24 will work post a No Deal Brexit.

Sorry - I might have missed BJ explain this to us following the televised debate last week - has he done that - if not can anyone explain how BJ thinks Gatt Article 24 will work for us after we leave with no deal on 31/10 - he said it would, and our future PM does not lie on such things.