The great drive for dough putt for show debate thread.

[RichA]

Call me crazy, but I’ll go off the likes of;
Scott Fawcett - who has studies countless thousands of shots via shot link
Mark Brodie - Who wrote every shot counts and helped bring strokes gained to the world
Lou Stagner - Who now works for Arccos and has access to many millions of shots from players of all levels, genders, ages etc around the world
Rather than some well intended people here who are throwing about anecdotal evidence from their Saturday 4ball.
I know who has the edge in likelihood of being correct!

So, just to confirm, people whose income relies on pushing golf statistics strongly believe in golf statistics. Terrific.
I listen to Hack It Out podcast. Sometimes it's interesting, but it mostly exists to provide those guys with an income.
I don't get why Mark and Greg sound so amazed though, when Lou reveals that statistics show a good golfer is 4.7% more likely to hit a green from 150 yards than a bad golfer.

 

[Deleted member 25575]

So, just to confirm, people whose income relies on pushing golf statistics strongly believe in golf statistics. Terrific.
I listen to Hack It Out podcast. Sometimes it's interesting, but it mostly exists to provide those guys with an income.
I don't get why Mark and Greg sound so amazed though, when Lou reveals that statistics show a good golfer is 4.7% more likely to hit a green from 150 yards than a bad golfer.

Yes, to confirm, people whose income relies on publishing golf statistics, who strongly believe in golf statistics. Have convinced me, via the statistics which have been published and read by many many thousands of people, that I am also free to read an interpret however I want, more so than a bunch of well meaning people on an internet forum throwing about anecdotal evidence from their Saturday 4ball.

 

[D-S]

Do they give GIR stats for the different driving distances and handicap levels?
For me the pitching, Chipping and bunker game plays such as significant part of amateur scoring. It has a huge bearing on putting stats as well. Obviously shorter players are at a disadvantage as they are hitting into greens from further away but the lower handicap (for their distance) shorter hitters will have an above average pitching/chipping game which will significantly reduce their putts per round (not necessarily due to uncanny putting skills but by chipping it close).

 

[Deleted member 29109]

GiR is probably the only old thinking stat that still holds up. Hit more greens and you will score better.

Now what makes hitting greens easier? Hitting shorter clubs into them…

Putts per round is almost meaningless as a statistic.

 

[CountLippe]

Do they give GIR stats for the different driving distances and handicap levels?
For me the pitching, Chipping and bunker game plays such as significant part of amateur scoring. It has a huge bearing on putting stats as well. Obviously shorter players are at a disadvantage as they are hitting into greens from further away but the lower handicap (for their distance) shorter hitters will have an above average pitching/chipping game which will significantly reduce their putts per round (not necessarily due to uncanny putting skills but by chipping it close).

Yes

 

[Backsticks]

Do they give GIR stats for the different driving distances and handicap levels?
For me the pitching, Chipping and bunker game plays such as significant part of amateur scoring. It has a huge bearing on putting stats as well. Obviously shorter players are at a disadvantage as they are hitting into greens from further away but the lower handicap (for their distance) shorter hitters will have an above average pitching/chipping game which will significantly reduce their putts per round (not necessarily due to uncanny putting skills but by chipping it close).

Strokes gained is the true method. It takes each shot on its merits versus competitor, not borderline meaningless ones like total puts or FIR, which we can all see the flaw in very easily.

 

[Deleted member 25575]

Do they give GIR stats for the different driving distances and handicap levels?
For me the pitching, Chipping and bunker game plays such as significant part of amateur scoring. It has a huge bearing on putting stats as well. Obviously shorter players are at a disadvantage as they are hitting into greens from further away but the lower handicap (for their distance) shorter hitters will have an above average pitching/chipping game which will significantly reduce their putts per round (not necessarily due to uncanny putting skills but by chipping it close).

Lou Stagner posted a stat I’m sure about how hard it is to hit 18 greens in reg, and that statistically speaking it’s more likely to get a HiO than hit all 18 greens in a round!
That said, no doubt someone here will be along soon to say that Big Dave from the Saturday 4ball once hit all 18 greens and has never had a HiO so those statisticians must be wrong and pedalling their misinformation to get more clicks

 

[D-S]

GiR is probably the only old thinking stat that still holds up. Hit more greens and you will score better.

Now what makes hitting greens easier? Hitting shorter clubs into them…

Putts per round is almost meaningless as a statistic.

What are Pro GIR per round vs 5 hcp vs 15 hcp?
My gut feel it would be something like 13 - 8 - 3.
Therefore about half of the approximate 10 shot differential between the 3 golf categories will be down to short game.

 

[Deleted member 29109]

What are Pro GIR per round vs 5 hcp vs 15 hcp?
My gut feel it would be something like 13 - 8 - 3.
Therefore about half of the approximate 10 shot differential between the 3 golf categories will be down to short game.

And the other half is long game.

Not only do better players hit more greens. They hit it closer too.

Golf is a game of proximity. The closer you are the lower your score is likely to be. Better players get it closer to the hole in fewer shots. Being longer off the tee and with your irons makes getting closer to the hole easier.

 

[Deleted member 29109]

Would people rather.

Hit every drive 300 yards with a guaranteed maximum dispersion of 60 yards.

Or

Never 3 putt again.

Which would lead to consistently lower scores over the long term?

 

[Backsticks]

What are Pro GIR per round vs 5 hcp vs 15 hcp?
My gut feel it would be something like 13 - 8 - 3.
Therefore about half of the approximate 10 shot differential between the 3 golf categories will be down to short game.

Your GIR numbers are about correct, but you need to look at is as strokes gained. Which gives about 13 of the 20 shots difference between a top pro are due to long game. 3.5 due to putting, 3.5 due to short chipping/bunker play.

 

[Deleted member 25575]

Would people rather.

Hit every drive 300 yards with a guaranteed maximum dispersion of 60 yards.

Or

Never 3 putt again.

Which would lead to consistently lower scores over the long term?

I’d take 250 and a 60 yard max dispersion

 

[patricks148]

Would people rather.

Hit every drive 300 yards with a guaranteed maximum dispersion of 60 yards.

Or

Never 3 putt again.

Which would lead to consistently lower scores over the long term?

Give me 300 any day

 

[Deleted member 25575]

Your GIR numbers are about correct, but you need to look at is as strokes gained. Which gives about 13 of the 20 shots difference between a top pro are due to long game. 3.5 due to putting, 3.5 due to short chipping/bunker play.

With respect, that’s absolute BS!
Big Dave from the Saturday 4ball smashes it 300 off the tee but 3 putts every hole.
So those statistics are all lies to sell more books for Brodie.
Putting is where it’s at, Big Dave proves that

 

[Backsticks]

Would people rather.

Hit every drive 300 yards with a guaranteed maximum dispersion of 60 yards.

Or

Never 3 putt again.

Which would lead to consistently lower scores over the long term?

The distance is the clear choice.
The average handicapper three putts once or twice a round. 2 shots a round to gain lets say. But it would not achieve the gains from 300 yard driving which is more likely 4 or 5 (thats even without the other 7 or 8 shots that would come from approach play benefitting from the gain in length too).

 

[Backsticks]

On putting, there just arent enough putt situations with sufficiently variable outcome to tilt one's play systematically more than a couple of shots. Short ones have negligible variability - we will all effectively 1 putt from inside 2ft. Middle range putts we can generally all two putt - it is hard for the tour pro to even gain an advantage over us on the 12-24ft putts. Outside that, he has an advantage as he will put his first one into 3 putt risk less than we will. And from 4-12tf he is more likely to make it, but not by card transforming amount on average. But it is still very few putts with a hinge point on the outcome, so impossible for even the most skilled pro to find even hig hsingle digits putting advantage over the average golfer of 15hc.

 

[D-S]

On putting, there just arent enough putt situations with sufficiently variable outcome to tilt one's play systematically more than a couple of shots. Short ones have negligible variability - we will all effectively 1 putt from inside 2ft. Middle range putts we can generally all two putt - it is hard for the tour pro to even gain an advantage over us on the 12-24ft putts. Outside that, he has an advantage as he will put his first one into 3 putt risk less than we will. And from 4-12tf he is more likely to make it, but not by card transforming amount on average. But it is still very few putts with a hinge point on the outcome, so impossible for even the most skilled pro to find even hig hsingle digits putting advantage over the average golfer of 15hc.

I fully understand this and this is a key part of the putt vs. drive debate.
It is the chipping/pitching bunker play differences that I see the most difference between the 5 vs. 15 handicapper usually, this (of course anecdotally)is where so many shots are thrown away either by not hitting the green via duffs/thins/leaving in bunkers as well as proximity to the hole enabling more 1 putts and less 3 putts.

 

[Deleted member 25575]

I fully understand this and this is a key part of the putt vs. drive debate.
It is the chipping/pitching bunker play differences that I see the most difference between the 5 vs. 15 handicapper usually, this (of course anecdotally)is where so many shots are thrown away either by not hitting the green via duffs/thins/leaving in bunkers as well as proximity to the hole enabling more 1 putts and less 3 putts.

To be honest, I think a lot to do with it is it’s easy to ‘see’ the mistakes in the short game.
Leave one in a bunker - well that’s pretty obviously a dropped shot
Miss a 4ft putt - no coming back from that
Hit one 220 and it looks ok, you’re in play but have a 5i in.
Hit it 250 and now you’ve got got an 8i.
Average proximity with those 2 clubs will lead to more 1 putts and less 3 putts with the 8 than the 5. It’s not always obvious at the time, but you’re talking on average something like 0.3 or 0.4 shots difference, do that on 6 holes and you make up for the bunker shot AND missed 4fter.

 

[RichA]

Yes, to confirm, people whose income relies on publishing golf statistics, who strongly believe in golf statistics. Have convinced me, via the statistics which have been published and read by many many thousands of people, that I am also free to read an interpret however I want, more so than a bunch of well meaning people on an internet forum throwing about anecdotal evidence from their Saturday 4ball.

My personal anecdotes are based around the fact that I'm not sure where average, amateur club golfers are supposed to find this extra distance that would significantly reduce their handicaps. It's not like I'm making a conscious choice not to stripe every drive 300 yards.

 

[Wabinez]

Would people rather.

Hit every drive 300 yards with a guaranteed maximum dispersion of 60 yards.

Or

Never 3 putt again.

Which would lead to consistently lower scores over the long term?

I’ll take 300 yards with a 60 yard dispersion every single day and twice on Sunday.
Anyone who says no 3 putts need their head testing, imo.