Scotland Independance vote

[NWJocko]

OK, I realise I'll be getting tedious about this now, so I'll fire some stats up and leave it ( for a while)

Scotlands population makes up 8.5% of The UK population
Scotland GDP is 11.5% ( excluding oil and gas revenue)
We outperform the rest of The UK by 3% in production

Oil and gas revenue for 2009 = £13.9 Billion

Scotland would liable for 10% of The UK current debt, but also due 10% of any assets The UK hold.

Since 2006 upto 2010, The GER ( Govt Expenses & Revenue report)
Scotland = £3.5 Billion surplus
UK = £72 Billion Deficit

Exports in 2009
Scotland increased by 13 %
UK increased by 0.05%

In regard to oil running out in the next 30-40 years, a myth.Estimates suggest 100 years worth of oil production is more realistic...it may be harder to get to, but technology improves daily.New oil fields found off Rockall last year.

Trident replacements estimated to cost £100Billion, something Scotland would not burdened with.

Whiskey exports last year approx £3Billion with £700 Million in excise paid to London, another asset by-passing Scotland.

So combine all the above the capacity to claim VAT/Corporation tax/NI contributions...and reduce them to a level to make inward investment ( and job creation) more attractive to the likes of Mitsubushi and amazon, the case for independence is solid imo.

I've missed out wind/wave renewables because I don't have any figures, but we're supposedly at the forefront of that,too.

Ask yourself this-

Why does a political party who are generally despised in Scotland with almost zero support be so keen to keep Scotland as part of the Union?An England free of the SNP/Scottish Labour would almost guarantee a Conservative govt in England for a decade or so.

There must be a reason.It must be money, unless anyone can suggest anything else?

Adidassler,

Sorry for the questions but you've piqued my interest now, and I also am always wary of stats without a fuller understanding....

- The GDP, what is the long term trend for Scotlands GDP as a proporion of overall? You would also need to have a pretty good understanding of the intended corporate tax and law structure post independence to analyse the impact this could have on production.

- Exports - why is 2009 quoted? Are numbers for 2010 and 2011 not available? Again would be interesting to see the longer term trend as this could be a spike. Also, what are the exports made up of?

- Oil, 30-40 yrs or 100yrs doesn't really matter, what is the long term plan when it is gone? Or is it more a case of "we'll be gone by then so...."?

I'm not trying to argue against just genuinely interested.

If you don't know the answers could you point me in the direction of where you got your numbers from?

Thanks

 

[lobthewedge]

Why does a political party who are generally despised in Scotland with almost zero support be so keen to keep Scotland as part of the Union?An England free of the SNP/Scottish Labour would almost guarantee a Conservative govt in England for a decade or so.

There must be a reason.It must be money, unless anyone can suggest anything else?

Perhaps an immense pride in the United Kingdom. Pride in the union between our great countries and everything it has achieved for England, Scotland and the world in the 300+ years of its great history.

That, or they just cant be bothered with a very costly and devastating divorce?

 

[Adi2Dassler]

One other question on the surplus/deficit numbers..... Does the £3.5bn surplus take into account any of the bail out money for "Scottish" banks? I know banks are more global these days but not sure if a share of the bail out money has been apportioned when calculating the surplus?

Interesting points adidassler and has certainly made me think more about it and also kicked me into gear to understand it all a bit more.

My gut feel remains that it is a bad thing but I would need to look at the numbers myself as I presume these are stats generated by the SNP as part of the debate?

No, the £3.5B doesn't include RBS/HBOS/Northern Rock ;-) bailouts. Precedent was set by the bail outs of Fortis and Dexia. France, Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg took a proportion of the cost in relation to the amount of trading within their respective regions.

More info here:http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php...-bank-bail-out

I've taken nothing from The SNP.Bits and bobs from various places, some you would expect a pro-slant, some you wouldn't.

 

[Adi2Dassler]

Adidassler,

Sorry for the questions but you've piqued my interest now, and I also am always wary of stats without a fuller understanding....

- The GDP, what is the long term trend for Scotlands GDP as a proporion of overall? You would also need to have a pretty good understanding of the intended corporate tax and law structure post independence to analyse the impact this could have on production.

- Exports - why is 2009 quoted? Are numbers for 2010 and 2011 not available? Again would be interesting to see the longer term trend as this could be a spike. Also, what are the exports made up of?

- Oil, 30-40 yrs or 100yrs doesn't really matter, what is the long term plan when it is gone? Or is it more a case of "we'll be gone by then so...."?

I'm not trying to argue against just genuinely interested.

If you don't know the answers could you point me in the direction of where you got your numbers from?

Thanks

Here's a few links, hope they help

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8618107.stm

http://www.oilofscotland.org/GERS_June_2010_Government_Expenditure_&_Revenue_Scotland_2008-2009.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCrone_report

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-oil-and-the-betrayal-of-scotland-518697.html

and handle with care-
http://www.oilofscotland.org/index.html

 

[NWJocko]

Here's a few links, hope they help

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8618107.stm

http://www.oilofscotland.org/GERS_June_2010_Government_Expenditure_&_Revenue_Scotland_2008-2009.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCrone_report

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-oil-and-the-betrayal-of-scotland-518697.html

and handle with care-
http://www.oilofscotland.org/index.html

Thanks for this, should be able to find out a bit more about it

 

[Dodger]

 

[DCB]

So in 2011 around 3.95million Scots had the chance to vote at the Scottish Parliamentary elections. Due to the general apathy, only around 1.97million actually bothered to turn out to vote. Of that, only 45.4% voted SNP, that's less than 850k.

That means 3.1million didn't vote for we fat Alex Salmond and when it comes down to it, I don't think the Scottish people really want to go down the Independence route behind we Alex.

I for one will be happy as we are.

 

[Bikky73]

So in 2011 around 3.95million Scots had the chance to vote at the Scottish Parliamentary elections. Due to the general apathy, only around 1.97million actually bothered to turn out to vote. Of that, only 45.4% voted SNP, that's less than 850k.

That means 3.1million didn't vote for we fat Alex Salmond and when it comes down to it, I don't think the Scottish people really want to go down the Independence route behind we Alex.

I for one will be happy as we are.

But that depends. In North East England, I wanted postal votes for me and the mrs cos we were going away. The paperwork arrived, eg 3rd march(not real date) to be returned to the council offices on 3rd march. Now when we both work and get home AFTER council offices shut, how am I supposed to get the paperwork to them? hence me and my mrs weren't permitted to vote last time. Same as the many complaints country wide where voting stations closed while there were queues of people outside. That is not democracy. But then again we don't live in one. You can have your say provided a. your not english, b. your not british complaining about how british get shafted, c. your not english wanting somthing for england, d. your not british wanting something for britain. Any of the above are deemed racist.

 

[sev112]

Quote from David Cameron on the news this evening :

"This will be a very interesting and very difficult question for all of thos einvolved in voting in due course.

None of this vote should be entered into lightly - everyone involved in the vote should have all of the facts available to them, and should be in a fit state to be able to make the right decision at the right time .

Acoordingly, and given the importance to the future prosperity and security of our 2 countries, whatever the outcome, i shall be announcing a ban on the sale or consumption of alcohol, within the Scottish borders, in the 2 weeks leading up to the referendum. "

 

[Bikky73]

Actually the best bet here is a 5year trial. The Gov't should

1. Make England/Britain for the English/British again and stop rewarding crooks while jailing people defending their own bought and paid for properties with their hard earned cash that they paid massive amounts of tax on.

2. Agree with the Scottish Parliament a set of terms and bailout plans for a 5year trial seperation. Where after that 5 years they come back into the fold and proceedings are put in motion to vote, both England and Scotland with a weighting of 1% of Scottish votes weighing in for 5% of English for a permanent seperation.

I use % due to numbers, not fair if there's 10x the number of English to Scotts and its 1 vote of Scotts to 5 Votes of English as that way even if all Scotts voted for and all English against, the Scotts would loose on a 2 against 1 final weighting.

But saying that I also think we should be able to vote online. And also take the the Aussie way of voting, which was apparently over ruled. As a number of people might say vote Lab, but NEVER Tory nor LibDem, meaning our last elections wouldn't have resulted in this ConDem-ned Govt.

 

[stef92]

But that depends. In North East England, I wanted postal votes for me and the mrs cos we were going away. The paperwork arrived, eg 3rd march(not real date) to be returned to the council offices on 3rd march. Now when we both work and get home AFTER council offices shut, how am I supposed to get the paperwork to them? hence me and my mrs weren't permitted to vote last time. Same as the many complaints country wide where voting stations closed while there were queues of people outside. That is not democracy. But then again we don't live in one. You can have your say provided a. your not english, b. your not british complaining about how british get shafted, c. your not english wanting somthing for england, d. your not british wanting something for britain. Any of the above are deemed racist.

WOAH! WAIT A MINUTE… Ok you missed the vote, so did people who feel ill and couldn't make it, so did people who rushed to visit their stricken relatives. People prioritise… if being able to vote is one of those biggies then you should make provisions. Hey, you did to be fair, and someone, somewhere made an error, not society! But equally you still had the chance to vote, if you cancelled previous plans… But the fact of the matter is… YOU had a CHOICE… WE DO HAVE A SAY IN HOW THIS COUNTRY IS RUN, and that is what many men and women are fighting around the world for us to have! As it is a luxury that is too precious to lose!

People in North Korea, people in Burma, many other people around the world do not have that choice!

I'm sorry but what I am quoting directly from you, which you claim isn't, is racist. It doesn't make you a racist, but those comments were most definitely are misguided and ignorant. Anyone can apply to be an prospective MP… Therefore we MOST DEFINITELY LIVE A DEMOCRACY!

I apologise if this causes disruption to a very interesting and previously quite learned thread, but sometimes, in fact very rarely, I have to say and stand up for what I believe.

I never mean, nor wish to cause inflammatory remarks, but if it is felt that I have overstepped a mark, MODS please delete this post.

 

[rosecott]

I'm sorry but what I am quoting directly from you, which you claim isn't, is racist.

I'm with you but, Mods, don't delete the post - let everyone read it.

 

[Adi2Dassler]

So in 2011 around 3.95million Scots had the chance to vote at the Scottish Parliamentary elections. Due to the general apathy, only around 1.97million actually bothered to turn out to vote. Of that, only 45.4% voted SNP, that's less than 850k.

That means 3.1million didn't vote for we fat Alex Salmond and when it comes down to it, I don't think the Scottish people really want to go down the Independence route behind we Alex.

I for one will be happy as we are.

903000 voted SNP, just over 1M voted for AN Other.Pretty spectacular figures.More would vote in a referendum and I'd guess those extra voters would vote for independence. Salmond is the number 1 politician in The UK right now.I bet there are no live leader debates as Cameron,Milliband and Clegg would be destroyed by the wee jambo.

But that depends. In North East England, I wanted postal votes for me and the mrs cos we were going away. The paperwork arrived, eg 3rd march(not real date) to be returned to the council offices on 3rd march. Now when we both work and get home AFTER council offices shut, how am I supposed to get the paperwork to them? hence me and my mrs weren't permitted to vote last time. Same as the many complaints country wide where voting stations closed while there were queues of people outside. That is not democracy. But then again we don't live in one. You can have your say provided a. your not english, b. your not british complaining about how british get shafted, c. your not english wanting somthing for england, d. your not british wanting something for britain. Any of the above are deemed racist.

You might the Luis Suarez of this forum, not a racist but plenty racist chat.

 

[NWJocko]

Not sure you need to apologise hindmarshl.

This is a really interesting subject though so I tend to avoid the sensationalist stuff.

I'm the other way to you, a Scot living in England. As such I find it quite surprising that most English people I speak to are quite flippant about it all.

If (and I've not had a chance to do enough reading) adi2dassler is in the right ballpark with his numbers or how this will work out financially, surely this will have an impact on England in terms of a net reduction in revenue to Westminster which will need to be plugged somehow?

That concerns me as a resident in England. On what scale are we talking reduction in revenue? Will it increase taxes? How are the 10% of UK assets to be allocated etc etc etc.

If independence (full independence that is) ever became reality it would affect more than Scottish people alone.

 

[stef92]

I'm glad it wasn't just me then!

 

[stef92]

Not sure you need to apologise hindmarshl.

This is a really interesting subject though so I tend to avoid the sensationalist stuff.

I'm the other way to you, a Scot living in England. As such I find it quite surprising that most English people I speak to are quite flippant about it all.

If (and I've not had a chance to do enough reading) adi2dassler is in the right ballpark with his numbers or how this will work out financially, surely this will have an impact on England in terms of a net reduction in revenue to Westminster which will need to be plugged somehow?

That concerns me as a resident in England. On what scale are we talking reduction in revenue? Will it increase taxes? How are the 10% of UK assets to be allocated etc etc etc.

If independence (full independence that is) ever became reality it would affect more than Scottish people alone.

Thank god we have managed to get the matter back on track!

If I am honest I think the flippancy comes from the lack of knowledge. It has never been an issue for "The English" as it has the Scots. I mean that in the sense that Scots are conscious of it by voting for a party that advocates it. We don't.

Also, I was always under the impression, seemingly wrongly, that Scotland could not cope without us… I think this is the general consensus too…

I too like you am wary of statistics, but I must say adi2dassler is putting forward some good arguments.

My own personal view on it I guess still remains the same, but only on a personal level, as I would have no idea where I would stand as a student in a non-uk higher education system. Equally would Scottish students still continue to pay less for a degree than I do for a prescription…?? Overall though, it looks like it may be beneficial to Scotland, and not so for the english/union.

 

[chris661]

I'm with you but, Mods, don't delete the post - let everyone read it.

That wouldn't be the post I would delete.

I'm glad it wasn't just me then!

Don't worry it isn't.

 

[NWJocko]

Thank god we have managed to get the matter back on track!

If I am honest I think the flippancy comes from the lack of knowledge. It has never been an issue for "The English" as it has the Scots. I mean that in the sense that Scots are conscious of it by voting for a party that advocates it. We don't.

Also, I was always under the impression, seemingly wrongly, that Scotland could not cope without us… I think this is the general consensus too…

I too like you am wary of statistics, but I must say adi2dassler is putting forward some good arguments.

My own personal view on it I guess still remains the same, but only on a personal level, as I would have no idea where I would stand as a student in a non-uk higher education system. Equally would Scottish students still continue to pay less for a degree than I do for a prescription…?? Overall though, it looks like it may be beneficial to Scotland, and not so for the english/union.

I agree because Scots need to make a conscious decision about independence, whereas England could just wake up one day and no longer be part of the old union between the 2 countries and find itself in a "worse" situation.

Honestly I don't know enough to say with any confidence whether Scotland would be better off. I think, short term and taking into account Oil revenue, perhaps from a financial standpoint yes they could be. I would still have major concerns what the plans are beyond Oil and Gas.

External investment that adi2dassler mentions is useful, however can be fleeting. i.e. Mitsubishi used to have a huge factory in the town I grew up in which closed in the late 90's. That was pretty much the only source of emplyment in the town.

That was why I was interested in the export numbers. What are Scotland producing to export? Is it sustainable? Do they have the export infrastructure themselves (as I assume a lot of the exports make their way through England first) etc etc.

From a sociological point of view, if Scotland does become more attractive, would people in the North of England look to migrate there given the North/South divide in England?

Like you I am also interested in politics, would be interesting to see what happened to Scottish politics in the aftermath of true independence also.....

There are compelling arguments albeit from a "pro" perspective, would be interesting to see an argument from an "against" perspective to compare the views.

 

[Adi2Dassler]

External investment that adi2dassler mentions is useful, however can be fleeting. i.e. Mitsubishi used to have a huge factory in the town I grew up in which closed in the late 90's. That was pretty much the only source of emplyment in the town.

I mentioned Mitsubishi specifically because of this- http://www.guardian.co.uk/edinburgh/2010/dec/03/edinburgh-offshore-wind-power-mitsubishi-jobs

I understand Hyundai are next to announce something similiar. Hardly scaring off inward investment as Cameron suggested.Amazon have created 1000 or so jobs in Scotland recently too.

 

[USER1999]

On day one of devolution, can we have our pound back? Issue your own currency.

You can have back any one serving in the armed forces, government, civil service, nhs, etc. It is not England's fault they are out of work. It is the fault of devolution.

You can administer your own car licenses, car tax, mot, income tax, vat, business tax, petrol tax, tobacco and alcohol tax, etc.

You can set up your own civil service to run all this.

Do you have any idea what this all costs?