New lockdown will courses close?

[Ethan]

I see it working in the context of a community rather than an individual activity or small group of individuals together.

In any community there are a vast number of scenarios and contexts in which individuals meet or mingle in some way. Now the risk of viral transmission between individuals in each separate context could be small - very small in some. But the risk in each context is there...

And so in a community of many thousands where without restriction there would be many hundreds of interactions at any one time, the risk of one or more transmissions happening in that community at any one time - even with care being taken we can ‘slip up’ - becomes much more significant than the risk of transmission in any single context or interaction. And of course 54 groups on a golf course at any one time is simply a sub-community of the community in which the club is located.

Its like I said. Roll a die once looking for a 6 and you probably won’t get one. Roll that die 100 times and you almost certainly will get a few 6s. But that‘s just my take on it.

That is a probabilistic model, you are essentially saying that even with a tiny risk, many repetitions of that risk can lead to a case. To a certain extent, that is true, although there is an opposing theory that the very small risks are actually zero, and that a certain threshold level of risk is needed to count. In probability, you need to show that the events are independent, that is that each one stands or falls alone and is not related to any other. If you do that, then each event with no effective risk should be judged in its own right, and your theory is somewhat akin to the idea that even if you have lost the lottery each week, if you keep playing your chances must improve.

 

[Yorkshire Hacker]

Not that I am belittling 355 deaths (yesterday's count), as (we have already been here) if it was your close relative who had passed, you would be full of grief.
HOWEVER, I am slowly coming round to the idea that this isn't going away in any hurry.
Thus, post Christmas, what are we facing? The ruination of most businesses excluding Supermarkets and Funeral Directors? The mental anguish of a nation facing unemployment, house evictions, and financial ruin? A nation so steeped in debt that our grandchildren will be paying for this for years to come?
I am absolutely stunned that our leaders (if that is the right word) have stuck with Professors Whitty, Vallance and co. Surely they can see that what we are doing just ain't working? These are the "experts" who suggested a week ago that we could be facing 4000 deaths a day, (since retracted). There are other eminent Epidemiologists available (Professor Gupta for example) who have completely opposing views to those of Whitty and Vallance.
Wouldn't it be worth while listening to their views?
I am just concerned that we appear to be going towards permanent Lockdown, but surely, it's got to end sometime, we just CANNOT go on like this?
It's nowt to do with me missing golf, I reckon I've enough on around the house, and preparation of competition motorcycles to keep me going through the winter, I just want to see some light at the end of the tunnel.......and I can't!!
I should just add, I'm off to the Supermarket soon. Without question I shall face more risk in there than I EVER will face on a golf course!

 

[clubchamp98]

Just had a walk in the park.
Place was rammed .
Can’t belive the swings and exercise stuff was open.
So many adults in the swings and slides making SD impossible while the kids were on the climbing frame and swings.
Guy had a outdoor gym going.

 

[Blue in Munich]

Many reasons why it’s not been possible but have a plan in place for Xmas if allowed including testing and isolation - sport can be replaced as an activity for a short period - seeing family is harder to replace



Yes it’s 4 weeks - end date and what will happen then has already been stated

All well and good if you have family to see; I'm seeing all of mine that I want to 24/7, golf was a break for both of us.

Still, as long as everyone else gets their Christmas Phil, eh.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

Just had a walk in the park.
Place was rammed .
Can’t belive the swings and exercise stuff was open.
So many adults in the swings and slides making SD impossible while the kids were on the climbing frame and swings.
Guy had a outdoor gym going.

No problem, it's outdoors?

 

[Pin-seeker]

Some of us don’t need to use this time spend more time with our kids & family,some of us put them before golf & spend lots of time with them regardless of courses being open or not.
It makes no sense at all to close courses,that’s why people are annoyed by it.

 

[Ethan]

Not that I am belittling 355 deaths (yesterday's count), as (we have already been here) if it was your close relative who had passed, you would be full of grief.
HOWEVER, I am slowly coming round to the idea that this isn't going away in any hurry.
Thus, post Christmas, what are we facing? The ruination of most businesses excluding Supermarkets and Funeral Directors? The mental anguish of a nation facing unemployment, house evictions, and financial ruin? A nation so steeped in debt that our grandchildren will be paying for this for years to come?
I am absolutely stunned that our leaders (if that is the right word) have stuck with Professors Whitty, Vallance and co. Surely they can see that what we are doing just ain't working? These are the "experts" who suggested a week ago that we could be facing 4000 deaths a day, (since retracted). There are other eminent Epidemiologists available (Professor Gupta for example) who have completely opposing views to those of Whitty and Vallance.
Wouldn't it be worth while listening to their views?
I am just concerned that we appear to be going towards permanent Lockdown, but surely, it's got to end sometime, we just CANNOT go on like this?
It's nowt to do with me missing golf, I reckon I've enough on around the house, and preparation of competition motorcycles to keep me going through the winter, I just want to see some light at the end of the tunnel.......and I can't!!
I should just add, I'm off to the Supermarket soon. Without question I shall face more risk in there than I EVER will face on a golf course!

We listened to Gupta's views. By the way, she is a theoretical epidemiologist, which is an important distinction. She wrote a paper in March suggesting that 68% of the population was immune, and that the infection fatality rate was around 1 in 10,000. This work has been comprehensively trashed and disproven, and so nobody is seriously listening to her now. She is an advocate of the Swedish approach, and expressed that view in a well known statement sponsored by right wing American libertarians. Sweden has had a death rate 5-10x that of immediate neighbours, and no better economic or mental health outcomes.

Our leaders have used Whitty and Vallance as cover at times, and ignored them at other times. If you want to listen to eminent epidemiologists, try the WHO. We should have listened better to their advice from the start.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

That is a probabilistic model, you are essentially saying that even with a tiny risk, many repetitions of that risk can lead to a case. To a certain extent, that is true, although there is an opposing theory that the very small risks are actually zero, and that a certain threshold level of risk is needed to count. In probability, you need to show that the events are independent, that is that each one stands or falls alone and is not related to any other. If you do that, then each event with no effective risk should be judged in its own right, and your theory is somewhat akin to the idea that even if you have lost the lottery each week, if you keep playing your chances must improve.

The problem is that many scenarios have a very low risk of viral transmission between individuals IF all involved comply with conditions X, Y and Z. And whilst much, if not most, of the time these conditions will be complied with - they are all subject to human will and frailty.

The lottery is a valid analogy but not quite as you frame it. If tonight I buy one lottery ticket (I will buy 2) I am very unlikely to win something - might be lucky and win a free go ? If instead I buy 10,000 tickets each with a different combination of numbers, the chance of me winning something more significant in tonight’s draw becomes quite likely. Maybe not the jackpot - but something. The point being that the latter is large number of similar but factually different combinations/events that will all ‘happen’ concurrently and each with the same set of possible outcomes.

 

[Ethan]

The problem is that many scenarios have a very low risk of viral transmission between individuals IF all involved comply with conditions X, Y and Z. And whilst much, if not most, of the time these conditions will be complied with - they are all subject to human will and frailty.

The lottery is a valid analogy but not quite as you frame it. If tonight I buy one lottery ticket (I will buy 2) I am very unlikely to win something - might be lucky and win a free go ? If instead I buy 10,000 tickets each with a different combination of numbers, the chance of me winning something more significant in tonight’s draw becomes quite likely. Maybe not the jackpot - but something.

Probability works differently at very low levels, though. The same low probability that the virus aggregates rather than disperses when playing golf is on a par (no pun intended) with a whole lot of other remote probabilities, like the postman coughed on your copy of Golf Monthly, or that virus settled on your door handle while parked at Tesco. In practice, the very unlikely individual outcomes are written off rather than added up. To take back the lottery analogy, these are the equivalent of digging your garden and finding old Roman artefacts, or having an unknown distant relative die and bequeath you there fortune.

Short version, golf will have no effect on the future course of the virus whether played or banned.

Shall we call this one all square and park it?

 

[Deleted member 15344]

All well and good if you have family to see; I'm seeing all of mine that I want to 24/7, golf was a break for both of us.

Still, as long as everyone else gets their Christmas Phil, eh.

Every single persons situation and priorities will be different - it’s a no win situation that is completely new for the country and no matter what rules or guidelines they put in or don’t put in place then someone somewhere will not be happy as it won’t suit their situation or circumstances.

There is no book written on how this all works and in the same way all golfers become greenkeepers everyone now becomes experts on how to handle a pandemic ( generic comment )

How can they provide something that will suit everyone - should they single out golfers to carry on whilst the tennis players complain , and then other outdoor sports start to ask the same question - so do they just let everyone carry on as before - there is no right answer.

People have used the mental health element for sport to continue - Xmas is very important to a lot of people as well in regards mental health , just as seeing their families is. It’s frustrating for us all - it’s lovely weather out there and It would have been a lovely day for a game of golf - but there will be other days ahead

 

[Pin-seeker]

Every single persons situation and priorities will be different - it’s a no win situation that is completely new for the country and no matter what rules or guidelines they put in or don’t put in place then someone somewhere will not be happy as it won’t suit their situation or circumstances.

There is no book written on how this all works and in the same way all golfers become greenkeepers everyone now becomes experts on how to handle a pandemic ( generic comment )

How can they provide something that will suit everyone - should they single out golfers to carry on whilst the tennis players complain , and then other outdoor sports start to ask the same question - so do they just let everyone carry on as before - there is no right answer.

People have used the mental health element for sport to continue - Xmas is very important to a lot of people as well in regards mental health , just as seeing their families is. It’s frustrating for us all - it’s lovely weather out there and It would have been a lovely day for a game of golf - but there will be other days ahead

Do you try to come across so sickly?

 

[robinthehood]

Every single persons situation and priorities will be different - it’s a no win situation that is completely new for the country and no matter what rules or guidelines they put in or don’t put in place then someone somewhere will not be happy as it won’t suit their situation or circumstances.

There is no book written on how this all works and in the same way all golfers become greenkeepers everyone now becomes experts on how to handle a pandemic ( generic comment )

How can they provide something that will suit everyone - should they single out golfers to carry on whilst the tennis players complain , and then other outdoor sports start to ask the same question - so do they just let everyone carry on as before - there is no right answer.

People have used the mental health element for sport to continue - Xmas is very important to a lot of people as well in regards mental health , just as seeing their families is. It’s frustrating for us all - it’s lovely weather out there and It would have been a lovely day for a game of golf - but there will be other days ahead

There is a right answer, allow activities that are proven to be safe to carry on rather than a blanket ban on them. Its easy to do....

 

[Beezerk]

Just had a walk in the park.
Place was rammed .
Can’t belive the swings and exercise stuff was open.
So many adults in the swings and slides making SD impossible while the kids were on the climbing frame and swings.
Guy had a outdoor gym going.

Local woods were rammed earlier, quote obviously lots of different families meeting up and going for group walks. Car park was a disaster zone, vehicles dumped everywhere.
Half a mile away is my golf course, deserted despite being able to socially distance 1,000 times better than the gimps in the woods.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Probability works differently at very low levels, though. The same low probability that the virus aggregates rather than disperses when playing golf is on a par (no pun intended) with a whole lot of other remote probabilities, like the postman coughed on your copy of Golf Monthly, or that virus settled on your door handle while parked at Tesco. In practice, the very unlikely individual outcomes are written off rather than added up. To take back the lottery analogy, these are the equivalent of digging your garden and finding old Roman artefacts, or having an unknown distant relative die and bequeath you there fortune.

Short version, golf will have no effect on the future course of the virus whether played or banned.

Shall we call this one all square and park it?

Ok ?

 

[rulefan]

Probability works differently at very low levels, though. The same low probability that the virus aggregates rather than disperses when playing golf is on a par (no pun intended) with a whole lot of other remote probabilities, like the postman coughed on your copy of Golf Monthly, or that virus settled on your door handle while parked at Tesco. In practice, the very unlikely individual outcomes are written off rather than added up. To take back the lottery analogy, these are the equivalent of digging your garden and finding old Roman artefacts, or having an unknown distant relative die and bequeath you there fortune.

Short version, golf will have no effect on the future course of the virus whether played or banned.

Shall we call this one all square and park it?

Preferably not in a Tesco car park

 

[Ethan]

Preferably not in a Tesco car park

Touché.

 

[clubchamp98]

No problem, it's outdoors?

Should have only banned indoor golf then

 

[HomerJSimpson]

So many people on the local nature reserve all mingling and even a game of footie going on. People have no clue and so didn't stay there long. Golf course empty and we're not allowed to even use it to walk on. Going to be a long few weeks and not 100% it'll make too much difference it people don't get their fingers out. Still think we're heading for a major lockdown for January and February but not sure this firebreak is doing it

 

[Ethan]

So many people on the local nature reserve all mingling and even a game of footie going on. People have no clue and so didn't stay there long. Golf course empty and we're not allowed to even use it to walk on. Going to be a long few weeks and not 100% it'll make too much difference it people don't get their fingers out. Still think we're heading for a major lockdown for January and February but not sure this firebreak is doing it

Oh yeah, you can bet on it. This firebreak is to allow Christmas commerce and family stuff, but the Govt knows there is a price to be paid for it. That bill will start to come in right around new year.

 

[HomerJSimpson]

Oh yeah, you can bet on it. This firebreak is to allow Christmas commerce and family stuff, but the Govt knows there is a price to be paid for it. That bill will start to come in right around new year.

Not a bad plan though is it? No one has any cash after a Christmas splurge and January and February are the coldest two months and the height of the flu season so shutting up like first lockdown (so everything bar food shops, chemists etc) and keeping people as far apart as possible and see how the land lies in March