EU Referendum

[CheltenhamHacker]

Sorry for repeating this but do you honestly think we will not trade with any EU countries if we exit?

Where did he say that?

My thoughts are that if we still traded post brexit, we lose pretty much all negotiating power, as we would need them (for access to the trading bloc) more than they need us (for our trade). UK becomes even more irrelevant on a global scale.

It makes no sense NOT to be part of something bigger, with the way the world is going (super states/bigger countries)

 

[ColchesterFC]

we would need them (for access to the trading bloc) more than they need us (for our trade)

I would argue that it would be the other way round. They would lose a massive amount of trade if they put obstacles in the way of us trading with them. With our trade deficit I'm sure there would be some kind of trade agreement put in place pretty quickly. I can't imagine that the EU countries would be too happy if we took the billions of pounds we spend on their goods each year and said that because they were making things difficult we were going to spend it in China, Japan, America or wherever else.

 

[SocketRocket]

I would argue that it would be the other way round. They would lose a massive amount of trade if they put obstacles in the way of us trading with them. With our trade deficit I'm sure there would be some kind of trade agreement put in place pretty quickly. I can't imagine that the EU countries would be too happy if we took the billions of pounds we spend on their goods each year and said that because they were making things difficult we were going to spend it in China, Japan, America or wherever else.

Spot on!

 

[SocketRocket]

And at the risk of repeating myself as seems to be the way in these ever decreasing circular threads, of course we will still do business and trade with EU countries. No one is saying we will not. My argument/thoughts/opinion I copied verbatim from The Guardian is that it is easier for UK businesses to do business with other countries in the world largest trade bloc if you are in that bloc, as opposed to not being in that bloc. In addition to the ease of conducting business with fellow like minded club members, countries tend to favour trading with certain nations and whilst I am sure we will not go on any back lists, I am also pretty confident that a fellow EU member state are favoured when it comes to doing business with over a non EU member state. And the more business and exports UK based businesses can do the better if we want a stable economy.

Think of it as the intangible benefits you get from being the member of a golf club. If you want just the 'economic arguments and facts' then you can say if you play 40 times a year the rounds work out cheaper if you become a member. But as many have stated on here, there are also the intangible benefits that a lot of people like. Such as being a member of an exclusive club, meeting like minded individuals, looking down on poor people, the ability to feel important by sitting on a committee and banning anyone wearing high tops shoes like Ricky Fowler wears, that kind of thing.

But the point for me is whether they want to do business with us. We are a major source for EU countries to sell their goods into and I cannot see any way that they would want to do anything that reduced that trade.

Regarding the non trade issues, I explained how I see them earlier and how they are more important to me than whether we keep or loose a bit of our trade.

 

[Foxholer]

But the point for me is whether they want to do business with us. We are a major source for EU countries to sell their goods into and I cannot see any waay that they would want to do anything that reduced that trade.

Which is surely precisely why they are prepared to do a deal to keep the UK actually IN the EU!

 

[SocketRocket]

Where did he say that?

My thoughts are that if we still traded post brexit, we lose pretty much all negotiating power, as we would need them (for access to the trading bloc) more than they need us (for our trade). UK becomes even more irrelevant on a global scale.

It makes no sense NOT to be part of something bigger, with the way the world is going (super states/bigger countries)

He said "And I would be even more concerned if we opted out of the biggest trading bloc in the world and tried to go it alone"

 

[Foxholer]

Where did he say that?

My thoughts are that if we still traded post brexit, we lose pretty much all negotiating power, as we would need them (for access to the trading bloc) more than they need us (for our trade). UK becomes even more irrelevant on a global scale.

It makes no sense NOT to be part of something bigger, with the way the world is going (super states/bigger countries)

Ask those countries that have actually split from larger ones - an even greater 'wrench'!

I agree with your point about losing negotiating power - or at least what little we had anyway. Sorry no 'facts' to hand to back that opinion up though!

I have no doubt that trade would continue (again no facts to back it up though ) and it would be via a FTA (no facts there either!)! It would just be a tad (or more) more difficult, so the amount, if not the value of trade would be less. That phenomenon is trade simply obeying the 'laws' of economics!

 

[Hacker Khan]

He said "And I would be even more concerned if we opted out of the biggest trading bloc in the world and tried to go it alone"

I meant 'tried to go it alone' as in were not part of a larger trading bloc. Not 'tried to go it alone' as in we would not trade with other nations. I assumed that was obvious. But obviously not and I have made an ass.

 

[SocketRocket]

Which is surely precisely why they are prepared to do a deal to keep the UK actually IN the EU!

Not convinced that the deal that 'May' be ratified is good enough to make a dot of difference to most peoples voting intentions, it's just a cosmetic stitch up by Cameron and his mates IMO. If it included a 'Brake' on EU migration if WE thought it necessary then I think it may have been good enough, but not the proposed limp concession.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Our youth have to compete for jobs against an unlimited number of people who are content to work on Zero hour contracts and for minimum wages or below in some cases. Opening up our job market to such numbers (and with the prospect of this number getting much larger) then IMO our young people will be better off if we are out.

Well hardly unlimited as the ONS tell us that there are 750,000 on zero-hours contracts. This figure plus all the millions of minimum wage jobs rather helps explain why the tax-credit bill is rocketing. Rather neatly aligns with there being 800,000 Poles in the UK. I guess they must have all the zero hours jobs? Are you suggesting that many of the indigenous population find zero hours contracts beneath them - or that the Poles etc do better at interview...

As @HK has said - zero hours contracts are here to stay as we live in a globalised economy and we have to compete with very low cost competitors.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

You are massively over egging - it's as simple as that IMO

I asked a simple question about control of immigration - as that is seen as key to most who want to leave - everything else mentioned eventually leads to immigration. And closed borders (being an island) is easy - except that we can't close all of them. I did not get an answer that would actually tell me how we would actually close the border between NI and RoI.

I simply raised this is an obvious hole in the immigration fence with the expectation that Leave would have the answer to hand. But it seems not. Which is a bit disappointing, but perhaps not surprising as they can't actually give an answer to many 'how are you going to do/arrange that - how is that going to happen' type questions.

I know - let's build a fence

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...eland-irish-republic-eu-referendum-enda-kenny

 

[SocketRocket]

Well hardly unlimited as the ONS tell us that there are 750,000 on zero-hours contracts. This figure plus all the millions of minimum wage jobs rather helps explain why the tax-credit bill is rocketing. Rather neatly aligns with there being 800,000 Poles in the UK. I guess they must have all the zero hours jobs? Are you suggesting that many of the indigenous population find zero hours contracts beneath them - or that the Poles etc do better at interview...

I was referring to the huge number of people in countries where wages are very low that are more than happy to come here and work on Zero Hours contracts and for minimum wages. Also as the EU will eventually take on more poor economy countries like Turkey those numbers will become very large indeed. I guess many of the current middle east migrants coming into the EU will eventually get the right to work in the UK as well.

 

[6inchcup]

I was referring to the huge number of people in countries where wages are very low that are more than happy to come here and work on Zero Hours contracts and for minimum wages. Also as the EU will eventually take on more poor economy countries like Turkey those numbers will become very large indeed. I guess many of the current middle east migrants coming into the EU will eventually get the right to work in the UK as well.

wait untill the living wage comes in and we are swamped by EU member countries that are rubbing their hands about the extra money being sent home by workers boosting their spending power,why should £20+ be sent home to their kids when they would only get £3 in their own country,wrong on all counts ship them all back home legal or not.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I was referring to the huge number of people in countries where wages are very low that are more than happy to come here and work on Zero Hours contracts and for minimum wages. Also as the EU will eventually take on more poor economy countries like Turkey those numbers will become very large indeed. I guess many of the current middle east migrants coming into the EU will eventually get the right to work in the UK as well.

There are plenty of UK citizens working on zero hours and low paid contracts - it's not that we Brits are incapable of taking a low paid job - just that maybe too many choose not to go for them for whatever reason. It won;t be that Eastern Europeans got in first and the Brits didn't have a chance at the job - it will be because the eastern european went for the job and got it through merit.

 

[SocketRocket]

I asked a simple question about control of immigration - as that is seen as key to most who want to leave - everything else mentioned eventually leads to immigration. And closed borders (being an island) is easy - except that we can't close all of them. I did not get an answer that would actually tell me how we would actually close the border between NI and RoI.

I simply raised this is an obvious hole in the immigration fence with the expectation that Leave would have the answer to hand. But it seems not. Which is a bit disappointing, but perhaps not surprising as they can't actually give an answer to many 'how are you going to do/arrange that - how is that going to happen' type questions.

I know - let's build a fence

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...eland-irish-republic-eu-referendum-enda-kenny

Phil is correct to say you are over egging it. Do you think Polish people will be landing in Holyhead in rubber boats? And do you think they would all be looking to work in the black market as they would have no Visas, work permits, access to benefits, housing or health services. Really?

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

wait untill the living wage comes in and we are swamped by EU member countries that are rubbing their hands about the extra money being sent home by workers boosting their spending power,why should £20+ be sent home to their kids when they would only get £3 in their own country,wrong on all counts ship them all back home legal or not.

Are you talking child benefit or wages?

If child benefit - would you rather the parents worked in the UK and sent child benefit money home - or that they brought the children to the UK?

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Phil is correct to say you are over egging it. Do you think Polish people will be landing in Holyhead in rubber boats? And do you think they would all be looking to work in the black market as they would have no Visas, work permits, access to benefits, housing or health services. Really?

I'm not suggesting anything. I am asking the question about what will stop Poles (wanting to head to the UK for whatever reason) from travelling to RoI, and then crossing the border into NI; then taking the ferry from Larne (in NI) to Stranraer.

That's what I am asking

If the answer is 'nothing' then fine. But let's not pretend that the border and hence immigration will be completely controlled

 

[Hobbit]

If child benefit - would you rather the parents worked in the UK and sent child benefit money home - or that they brought the children to the UK?

that is one of the best questions posed on here ever! That certainly will have the closet BNP and UKIP voters having to confront their prejudices. I salute you sir!

 

[SocketRocket]

There are plenty of UK citizens working on zero hours and low paid contracts - it's not that we Brits are incapable of taking a low paid job - just that maybe too many choose not to go for them for whatever reason. It won;t be that Eastern Europeans got in first and the Brits didn't have a chance at the job - it will be because the eastern european went for the job and got it through merit.

Do you not agree that EU migration has kept wages down for the low paid.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I'm not suggesting anything. I am asking the question about what will stop Poles (wanting to head to the UK for whatever reason) from travelling to RoI, and then crossing the border into NI; then taking the ferry from Larne (in NI) to Stranraer.

That's what I am asking

If the answer is 'nothing' then fine. But let's not pretend that the border and hence immigration will be completely controlled

Belfast Telegraph has some thoughts on the matter

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/n...exit-would-remodel-irish-border-30981176.html