EU Referendum

[ColchesterFC]

I see the same 'don't leave ' economic analysts at the IMF have revisited their models and are predicting the UK's growth will be ahead of the rest of the EU's countries and many of the G9 nations.

I saw that earlier today. I wonder if all those from the Leave side that were rubbishing the earlier reports from the IMF and saying they didn't have a clue will be as quick to rubbish this one. And equally if all those on the Remain side that were issuing dire warnings about ignoring the IMF predictions will be as supportive of this most recent one.

 

[BubbaP]

I saw that earlier today. I wonder if all those from the Leave side that were rubbishing the earlier reports from the IMF and saying they didn't have a clue will be as quick to rubbish this one. And equally if all those on the Remain side that were issuing dire warnings about ignoring the IMF predictions will be as supportive of this most recent one.

Cynic!

Spot on though:thup:

 

[MarkE]

I always said the IMF were a well respected organization that knows what they are talking about.

 

[Hacker Khan]

I found this a very good article. But then again I would.

https://www.opencanada.org/features/brexit-post-mortem-17-takeaways-fallen-david-cameron/

 

[gregbwfc]

I found this a very good article. But then again I would.

https://www.opencanada.org/features/brexit-post-mortem-17-takeaways-fallen-david-cameron/

You're right, it is good.

 

[vkurup]

Just more bitterness that the vote did'nt go the way the financial sector would have preferred. London will continue to be the European hub for finance regardless. It has the infrastructure in place built up over hundreds of years that other European cities cannot compete with. As for certain banks moving staff abroad, what's new? they have always done that.

This response was funny and made me laugh and cry at the same time because of the simplicity of the reasoning. Love it..
Arguing that the infrastructure existed for hundreds of years is like arguing that the Earth existed for millions of years so a bit of man made CO2 will not lead to global warming. There are a few examples of cities which had strong infrastructure but have fallen by the wayside
>>Glasglow (and whole of river clyde) - world renowned ship builders with strong infrastructure et al.. These days most non-defence ships are built in Korea or China.
>>Manchester - world renowned cotton industry with hundreds of years of infrastructure
>>Sheffield - Had more steel works for ages before it became known for 'the full monty film'.
In every case a smaller set of companies continue to thrive but it will never provide the mass employment that the industry provided. In many ways the cities never returned to their former glory. Would we add
>>London - Financial hub with hundreds of years of infrastructure before Brexit??

I am not saying London will disappear, I think it will thrive and find a way around it. In many ways, I do foresee a demise of 'traditional' banks and the rise of more digital. It will need a new set of skills and it will be world leading, but will it employee the massess as it does today - highly unlikely. While i work very closely with technology and can talk for hours about how IoT, AR, VR, SMAC etc. will change the world, I cant understand what my teenage nephew and his digital natives operate or how they conduct their virtual life.

I see the same 'don't leave ' economic analysts at the IMF have revisited their models and are predicting the UK's growth will be ahead of the rest of the EU's countries and many of the G9 nations.

To be precise, I think the IMF downgraded UK's growth because Brexit was a 'spanner in the works' (their words not mine). It is incidental that the reduced forecast is still ahead of rEU. So as long as we are a slither of points more than our ex, we are fine though we were going to be way ahead if we had stayed together.


I am bit bored of all Remainers being called sore losers but the Leavers need to stop behaving like 'this is my ball and I wont let anyone play with it'. While it your ball, there is only so much fun you can have by kicking it against the wall. It is more fun to play with the rest of the world and learn/teach new skills.

 

[SocketRocket]

This response was funny and made me laugh and cry at the same time because of the simplicity of the reasoning. Love it..
Arguing that the infrastructure existed for hundreds of years is like arguing that the Earth existed for millions of years so a bit of man made CO2 will not lead to global warming. There are a few examples of cities which had strong infrastructure but have fallen by the wayside
>>Glasglow (and whole of river clyde) - world renowned ship builders with strong infrastructure et al.. These days most non-defence ships are built in Korea or China.
>>Manchester - world renowned cotton industry with hundreds of years of infrastructure
>>Sheffield - Had more steel works for ages before it became known for 'the full monty film'.
In every case a smaller set of companies continue to thrive but it will never provide the mass employment that the industry provided. In many ways the cities never returned to their former glory. Would we add
>>London - Financial hub with hundreds of years of infrastructure before Brexit??

I am not saying London will disappear, I think it will thrive and find a way around it. In many ways, I do foresee a demise of 'traditional' banks and the rise of more digital. It will need a new set of skills and it will be world leading, but will it employee the massess as it does today - highly unlikely. While i work very closely with technology and can talk for hours about how IoT, AR, VR, SMAC etc. will change the world, I cant understand what my teenage nephew and his digital natives operate or how they conduct their virtual life.




To be precise, I think the IMF downgraded UK's growth because Brexit was a 'spanner in the works' (their words not mine). It is incidental that the reduced forecast is still ahead of rEU. So as long as we are a slither of points more than our ex, we are fine though we were going to be way ahead if we had stayed together.


I am bit bored of all Remainers being called sore losers but the Leavers need to stop behaving like 'this is my ball and I wont let anyone play with it'. While it your ball, there is only so much fun you can have by kicking it against the wall. It is more fun to play with the rest of the world and learn/teach new skills.

You are suffering from the same delusions (maybe sometimes inverted) as those you accuse.

You suggests our major cities have been decimated of industry but what exactly has that got to do with Brexit. The changes you refer to are due to changes in technology and by our own stupidity in buying cheap goods from China, India, Korea etc and closing down our manufacturing, thus wiping out jobs and creating a new generation of underclasses who have no suitable work, (everyone cannot be university graduates) this removes their self respect and social responsibilities. The EU can do nothing about this change, it may even have contributed to making it worse. We should be making as much of our domestic product as possible, it may cost more in the shops but it gives people work and reduces the welfare state. Nothing is better than work to drag people out of poverty.

You suggest "It is more fun to play with the rest of the world and learn/teach new skills" Well! there is a very big world out there to kick your ball in and it doesn't end at the Mediterranean, what you suggest is to think small. Learning/teaching new skills! what do you mean by that? we are very good at learning and teaching new skills in this country and will play our part in sharing and developing knowledge with our European neighbours and indeed the rest of the World.

 

[Foxholer]

I found this a very good article. But then again I would.

https://www.opencanada.org/features/brexit-post-mortem-17-takeaways-fallen-david-cameron/

Absolutely spot on! Though I would say that, given most of the 'reasons to Remain' are/were the same (more eloquently put) what I have posted throughout this thread. Actually, the difference in trade 'importance' (8% versus my 10%) seems even bigger than what I thought!

Recent IMF figures are encouraging, but growth predictions everywhere have been reduced because of the result. Osborne's revision of the chance to balance the books (now none!) by 2020 was simple pragmatism, as well as good political sense - announcing bad news early and with a rush of other info!

I'm certain UK - and the EU - will make Brexit work, but (still) believe it's the wrong decision! No amount of discussion will alter that view, but I am certainly not going to adopt (what seems to me to be) the classic British (aka whingeing Pom) attitude of moaning about decisions when they had a chance, but failed, to affect them!

There ARE positives about Brexit, so the country (via its politicians and diplomats) needs to get on, implement the decision and move forward - in another classic, but more positive British attitude - stoicly!

The big losers, imo, have been politicians! They have been shown up as irresponsible, egotistic, liars who 'desert the ship' irrespective of whether they win or lose! None of them, and that even includes May, have come out of this with reputations improved! The 'winners' seem to be the 'influential' Press, who continue to direct public opinion while taking advantage of the very things they are decrying in their rags!

 

[vkurup]

Absolutely spot on! Though I would say that, given most of the 'reasons to Remain' are/were the same (more eloquently put) what I have posted throughout this thread. Actually, the difference in trade 'importance' (8% versus my 10%) seems even bigger than what I thought!

Recent IMF figures are encouraging, but growth predictions everywhere have been reduced because of the result. Osborne's revision of the chance to balance the books (now none!) by 2020 was simple pragmatism, as well as good political sense - announcing bad news early and with a rush of other info!

I'm certain UK - and the EU - will make Brexit work, but (still) believe it's the wrong decision! No amount of discussion will alter that view, but I am certainly not going to adopt (what seems to me to be) the classic British (aka whingeing Pom) attitude of moaning about decisions when they had a chance, but failed, to affect them!

There ARE positives about Brexit, so the country (via its politicians and diplomats) needs to get on, implement the decision and move forward - in another classic, but more positive British attitude - stoicly!

The big losers, imo, have been politicians! They have been shown up as irresponsible, egotistic, liars who 'desert the ship' irrespective of whether they win or lose! None of them, and that even includes May, have come out of this with reputations improved! The 'winners' seem to be the 'influential' Press, who continue to direct public opinion while taking advantage of the very things they are decrying in their rags!

+1 :thup:

But a word of warning... making such disclaimer wont help you to be accepted by the Leavers as someone who has moved on. In their crosshairs you shall continue to a sore loser who is doom and gloom (thats just the polite version).

 

[MarkE]

This response was funny and made me laugh and cry at the same time because of the simplicity of the reasoning.


That's because it's from a Leave voting pleb who's too stoopid to understand anything about finance.

You are hardly comparing like with like with your analogies. There's no reason for London to lose it's status in the world of finance. As for whether it will continue to employ the numbers it does now? who knows, probably not but that will be the same worldwide.

 

[MarkE]

I am bit bored of all Remainers being called sore losers but the Leavers need to stop behaving like 'this is my ball and I wont let anyone play with it'. While it your ball, there is only so much fun you can have by kicking it against the wall. It is more fun to play with the rest of the world and learn/teach new skills.

That's rich. I'm bored with Remainers bleating on about the injustice of it all and it's the Remainers advocating keeping in their own little insular eu club. Whereas us Leavers want to play, as you put it, with the entire world.:cheers:

 

[Hacker Khan]

This response was funny and made me laugh and cry at the same time because of the simplicity of the reasoning.


That's because it's from a Leave voting pleb who's too stoopid to understand anything about finance.

You are hardly comparing like with like with your analogies. There's no reason for London to lose it's status in the world of finance. As for whether it will continue to employ the numbers it does now? who knows, probably not but that will be the same worldwide.

To quote from the High Commissioner of Canada for the UK (expert alert, expert alert) who thinks that there is....

"But the financial services sector will definitely not do OK. The EU “passport” of regulatory equivalency that EU institutions grant to banks to operate under UK financial regulations will be withdrawn when the UK leaves the single market. This will be a lethal blow to the most rewarding sector of the UK economy (11 percent of Treasury revenues) that accounts for 10.2 percent of GDP and 3.3 percent of employment, mostly very high end. The migration of high-paying City of London financial jobs to a new financial center in Frankfurt, Dublin, Amsterdam or Paris will seriously downgrade London’s status."

 

[Deleted member 18588]

What makes the High Commissioner of Canada an expert on the outlook for the UK Financial Services sector?

In any event after the U-turn on the part of the IMF "expert opinions" seem to be rather devalued.

 

[ColchesterFC]

To quote from the High Commissioner of Canada for the UK (expert alert, expert alert) who thinks that there is....

"But the financial services sector will definitely not do OK. The EU “passport” of regulatory equivalency that EU institutions grant to banks to operate under UK financial regulations will be withdrawn when the UK leaves the single market. This will be a lethal blow to the most rewarding sector of the UK economy (11 percent of Treasury revenues) that accounts for 10.2 percent of GDP and 3.3 percent of employment, mostly very high end. The migration of high-paying City of London financial jobs to a new financial center in Frankfurt, Dublin, Amsterdam or Paris will seriously downgrade London’s status."

That's all well and good and he may be an expert but surely at this stage it's nothing more than a suggestion or a prediction based on nothing more than guesswork. Until the negotiations over Brexit are completed and details of the deal are released then no-one can actually know what will happen. There is no guarantee that we will lose access to the single market, there's no guarantee that the banking passport will be withdrawn and there's no guarantee that all these high paying jobs will move to Europe. Surely until those things are known then it's impossible to say what will happen.

The whole point of the negotiations will be what the UK wants from the EU and what the EU is prepared to give in return. I would guess at some kind of compromise between access to the single market, banking passport etc and limited free movement of workers. The difference is that I'm prepared to say that it's a guess/prediction and not make bold statements about what will happen with no evidence to back it up.

 

[teetime75]

This response was funny and made me laugh and cry at the same time because of the simplicity of the reasoning. QUOTE]

Joe asked his Wife if she could tell him something that would make
him laugh and cry at the same time.

She said. You have a bigger dick than all your mates.oo:

Sorry could`nt resist

 

[Foxholer]

This response was funny and made me laugh and cry at the same time because of the simplicity of the reasoning.


That's because it's from a Leave voting pleb who's too stoopid to understand anything about finance.

You are hardly comparing like with like with your analogies. There's no reason for London to lose it's status in the world of finance. As for whether it will continue to employ the numbers it does now? who knows, probably not but that will be the same worldwide.

Who then goes on to give several opinions on.... Finance!

 

[MarkE]

Who then goes on to give several opinions on.... Finance!

I was being facetious, may have gone over your head though!

 

[SocketRocket]

+1 :thup:

But a word of warning... making such disclaimer wont help you to be accepted by the Leavers as someone who has moved on. In their crosshairs you shall continue to a sore loser who is doom and gloom (thats just the polite version).

Unlike you he is showing a balanced view. Maybe you should give it a go :thup:

 

[Doon frae Troon]

No free trade without borders ....says France.

 

[SocketRocket]

No free trade without borders ....says France.

Thats OK then.