EU Referendum

[drdel]

I work for a fairly well known, large mulit-national, and just sat in on a 3-5 strategy roadmap meeting - up comes the SWOT analysis by our Head of Strategy. Number 1 threat was Brexit, where using our data and expertise (we have access to more financial data, public, private and international than you could possibly imagine) we are forecasting a 10% drop in GDP in the UK over next 5 years as well as the pound taking an enormous hit this year should there be a leave vote - very, very scary with repercussions for a generation.

Glad I don't work with your lot. A strategy meeting should be using the analysis of various potential scenarios to assess what the action need to be to taken advantage and turn them to opportunities. I guess your guys will do nothing about the euro Exchange rates that will bump along when the ECB hits the buffers.

 

[Foxholer]

Remember the Millennium Bug?

I rest my case

Completely different scenario!

Companies had plenty of warning and could actually prepare and TEST whether they would be affected - and determine what the effect would be!

It was through such an exercise that the effects were actually virtually eliminated. Virtually every medium and upwards sized company/organisation performed an analysis/risk assessment and took whatever action was necessary to prevent the potential chaos!

Here, the actual potential effects are 'unknown', though there are still actions companies can take - which I am certain they will have examined and decided whether or not to action - to mitigate potential problems!

 

[MarkE]

Did anyone see Corbyn on the news today? (Unfortunately dragged along Alan Johnson). I've never had much time for him to be honest, but today he gave his reasons for Remaining in the EU and I must say he was the most persuasive of all the remain crew. No scare mongering, just the positives as he see's it of remaining. Pity he did'nt get involved earlier, we may have had more productive tv debating than the back and forth arguing of the last couple of months, and he could well have convinced some of the waverers round to his way of thinking.

 

[PhilTheFragger]

Completely different scenario!

Companies had plenty of warning and could actually prepare and TEST whether they would be affected - and determine what the effect would be!

It was through such an exercise that the effects were actually virtually eliminated. Virtually every medium and upwards sized company/organisation performed an analysis/risk assessment and took whatever action was necessary to prevent the potential chaos!

Here, the actual potential effects are 'unknown', though there are still actions companies can take - which I am certain they will have examined and decided whether or not to action - to mitigate potential problems!

There were still "experts" saying that aircraft are going to fall out of the sky, Power stations would go into meltdown and all the nukes were going to be set off.

just saying that I trust the "experts" on both sides of the argument with as much scepticism as I did 16 years ago

 

[Deleted member 18588]

Did anyone see Corbyn on the news today? (Unfortunately dragged along Alan Johnson). I've never had much time for him to be honest, but today he gave his reasons for Remaining in the EU and I must say he was the most persuasive of all the remain crew. No scare mongering, just the positives as he see's it of remaining. Pity he did'nt get involved earlier, we may have had more productive tv debating than the back and forth arguing of the last couple of months, and he could well have convinced some of the waverers round to his way of thinking.

He was never going to get involved as he basically does not wish to remain but has been convinced by his front bench colleagues that Remain is politically expedient for his party.

 

[MarkE]

He was never going to get involved as he basically does not wish to remain but has been convinced by his front bench colleagues that Remain is politically expedient for his party.

I agree. Just feel his more measured, less sensationalist approach would have been welcome during the whole process.

 

[Lump]

He was never going to get involved as he basically does not wish to remain but has been convinced by his front bench colleagues that Remain is politically expedient for his party.

and its why a lot of people in the know are saying labour will have zero chance of getting in come the next election. If he had aligned himself with the brexit side, win or loose, he'd have been a shoe in.

I thing that irks me about the remain crew.... we where told if didn't join the EURO it would be the biggest mistake in our history. That prediction never came to fruition. The scare mongering isn't needed.

 

[Old Skier]

I thing that irks me about the remain crew.... we where told if didn't join the EURO it would be the biggest mistake in our history. That prediction never came to fruition. The scare mongering isn't needed.

I hope your not suggesting all those experts got it wrong.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Remember the Millennium Bug?

I rest my case

Do you remember how much time, effort and money was spent by big companies - mine included - to analyse, categorise and mitigate Y2K risks so that the risk of anything going wrong was minimised?

And hey presto - all our good work - including a fair amount of fixing stuff - meant that nothing untoward went wrong. But that was because we took the Y2K risk event seriously and did not bury our head in the sand hoping that it would all be OK. I know - I was out Head Office Y2K Risk Manager.

 

[vkurup]

There were still "experts" saying that aircraft are going to fall out of the sky, Power stations would go into meltdown and all the nukes were going to be set off.

just saying that I trust the "experts" on both sides of the argument with as much scepticism as I did 16 years ago

Agree there was a lot of scary stories.... BUT because of that we deployed a lot of folks to FIX the problem and get out without an incident. My friend used to work on the Y2K for a European Airline. They were given free tickets for Jan 1st to any destination of their choice.... Total number of IT folks who took up the offer.. Zero!!
Completely different scenarios to Brexit. Y2K was the 'known unknown', Brexit is the 'unknown-unknown'

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I hope your not suggesting all those experts got it wrong.

Not all experts were pro us joining the Euro - not all were against - there was a reasonable split. So some were right and some were wrong about impact long term. This time the vast majority - almost the totality - of experts are saying Brexit will harm our economy - and Gove and BoJo will have us believing that ALL of these experts are going to be wrong - even those who got the Euro decision right.

And in yet another interview this evening Gove would not say what he thought would be an acceptable level of immigration - and as he did this morning - declared that that is for a debate that the UK public have to have once we have left. Really? I think many Leavers expect immigration to be in the 10s of thousands (Farage) - and certainly under 100,000 (Tories last election).

 

[Old Skier]

Not all experts were pro us joining the Euro - not all were against - there was a reasonable split. So some were right and some were wrong about impact long term. This time the vast majority - almost the totality - of experts are saying Brexit will harm our economy - and Gove and BoJo will have us believing that ALL of these experts are going to be wrong - even those who got the Euro decision right.

In the same way that you and many on the remain side suggest that the out economists must be wrong because there are less of them.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Agree there was a lot of scary stories.... BUT because of that we deployed a lot of folks to FIX the problem and get out without an incident. My friend used to work on the Y2K for a European Airline. They were given free tickets for Jan 1st to any destination of their choice.... Total number of IT folks who took up the offer.. Zero!!
Completely different scenarios to Brexit. Y2K was the 'known unknown', Brexit is the 'unknown-unknown'

It is an 'unknown-unknown' compared with Y2K - but it is quite different from the banking crises, which many did not see coming and many did not fully appreciate what had been going on, in that Brexit is a 'known-unknown' in that we know when the event is going to happen and we know the things that might happen and so can model them with various levels of uncertainly with other known events happening in the following days, weeks and months - each which can be modelled. As it happens I have done a lot of system modelling in the past when you use past experience and outcomes to adjust your states and system dynamics to improve your predictions. So where the experts may have failed in the past - their current modelling will have been improved based upon that experience, and this time their models have a known and precise initial state.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

In the same way that you and many on the remain side suggest that the out economists must be wrong because there are less of them.

No - I do not suggest at all that they must be wrong - I suggest that they are more likely to be wrong given the vast majority take the different view, it is Bojo and Gove who are in complete denial as they simply rubbish, denigrate and traduce these experts in often silly and rather childish ways. Why does Gove not believe what the CEO of the London Stock Exchange says about loss of city jobs in event of Brexit - why....of course these jobs won't go as who in the right mind would move from London to Frankfurt it's such a boring place.

 

[Old Skier]

CEO of the London Stock Exchange

Well he is French and just might have other motives.

Frankfurt has been trying to get the money markets to move there with limited success for over 10 years. As they deal in world issues and are not limited to the EU perhaps they prefer the high life of London, Frankfurt is actually worse than boring, now if it was Hamburg.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Well he is French and just might have other motives.

Frankfurt has been trying to get the money markets to move there with limited success for over 10 years. As they deal in world issues and are not limited to the EU perhaps they prefer the high life of London, Frankfurt is actually worse than boring, now if it was Hamburg.

I suspect his motive is for the LSE to make as much profit as possible for their shareholders. Much the same motive as every CEO has in the real world.

 

[Old Skier]

I suspect his motive is for the LSE to make as much profit as possible for their shareholders. Much the same motive as every CEO has in the real world.

You may suspect it as I suspect that as he is from France he may be more aligned to the EU which would be quite natural.

 

[vkurup]

I used to like BoJo when he was the mayor. We needed a madcap mayor for this madcap city. But then he lost all my respect when he decided to join the brexit camp over a weekend just because it was politically convenient for him to get into No 10 (heaven forbid)

Is it just me or is Bojo starting to regret his decision on this... Furiously back pedalling on the poster and now immigration ... He is being found out...

 

[Old Skier]

Is it just me or is Bojo starting to regret his decision on this... Furiously back pedalling on the poster and now immigration ... He is being found out...

Let's be fair, that poster was nothing to do with the official leave campaign and could well have tipped the balance in favour of remain.

The man (his team) came up with some great ideas in London but he will never be in No 10.

 

[bluewolf]

You may suspect it as I suspect that as he is from France he may be more aligned to the EU which would be quite natural.

Any CEO that puts political motives over profits will very quickly find themself out of a job, and quite possibly out of the "boys club" that seems to guarantee future jobs.