EU Referendum - are you Out or In

[Fyldewhite]

And what happens when those people retire? It's not sustainable to be forever importing young people to support an increasing number of retirees.

That view sort of assumes that life expectancy will continue to rise like it has done this last 50 years. It won't. Also, pensions are changing and in a generation the burden will be nothing like it is today. The next 20 years or so will be the peak (the baby boomers) and the pressure will start to flat line.....it will still be much higher than it used to be but much more sustainable. No need to import constantly in huge numbers as a big influx now (when it's needed) will give a welcome boost to the birth rate, a key factor in all this. Crystal ball would be good but I see Germany more prosperous in 30 years as a result of forward thinking now.....and that future prosperity is what I think this is all about.

 

[Ethan]

And what happens when those people retire? It's not sustainable to be forever importing young people to support an increasing number of retirees.

Wow, do you mean that kids grow up? Oh no, that blows population planning out of the water.

Of course they bloody well grow up. It is simple enough even for UKIP supporters to understand. Birth rate determines the input, death rate (age specific) determines the output and the balance between the two, allowing for net migration determines the size and age mix of the population.

The bleeding obvious observation that this is a dynamic system does not mean you stop right now. Ongoing strategies are needed to keep it going but for now when birth rates are low, as they are in Germany, importing young people is a good way of buying some time.

 

[SocketRocket]

Wow, do you mean that kids grow up? Oh no, that blows population planning out of the water.

Of course they bloody well grow up. It is simple enough even for UKIP supporters to understand. Birth rate determines the input, death rate (age specific) determines the output and the balance between the two, allowing for net migration determines the size and age mix of the population.

The bleeding obvious observation that this is a dynamic system does not mean you stop right now. Ongoing strategies are needed to keep it going but for now when birth rates are low, as they are in Germany, importing young people is a good way of buying some time.

From a Mod that was a very rude reply!

 

[jp5]

Wow, do you mean that kids grow up? Oh no, that blows population planning out of the water.

Of course they bloody well grow up. It is simple enough even for UKIP supporters to understand. Birth rate determines the input, death rate (age specific) determines the output and the balance between the two, allowing for net migration determines the size and age mix of the population.

The bleeding obvious observation that this is a dynamic system does not mean you stop right now. Ongoing strategies are needed to keep it going but for now when birth rates are low, as they are in Germany, importing young people is a good way of buying some time.

I'm not really sure what your point was in all of that, but it'd be nice to keep things civil.

 

[SocketRocket]

Exactly why do you think Germany has accepted over 800,000 migrants? It it because they are "good-eggs"? (think we know the answer to that). Is it because they are rubbish at running an economy and don't know what they are doing? Hmmmm, I think not, they have a reasonable track record I think all would agree. Maybe, just maybe, they know that with an aging population they need many many more people of working age. Maybe, just maybe, they can see that the long term gain is worth the short term pain? I don't actually know the answers, but it strikes me that there must be some good reason and as we are similar countries it surprises me that it is right for them and not for us. Time will tell I suppose but it will be 20/30/40 years (long after I'm gone) that we'll really know, and I think that long term view is what we should all be concentrating on. The migration from Eastern Europe is probably beneficial and isn't really a major concern to me. The migration crisis from the war-zones is more of an issue but is better tackled collectively and won't go away if we withdraw from EU. As has been made clear time and time again, we have closed borders now to non-EU migrants so what would it really change?

Germany has taken the 800,000 on humanitarian grounds, they never planned it. I have worked in Germany and have many German friends. The German people are not at all happy with the current situation and the Brake will have to be applied this year.

Those people from the war zones that have migrated to Germany, Sweden etc will at some point get the right to live in the UK. Also, when Turkey is allowed to become a member of the EU there will be a potential 80 Million people with an economic pull factor to come to Northern Europe. I fail to understand how this is good news for us.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

From a Mod that was a very rude reply!

In your opinion:lol:

 

[SocketRocket]

In your opinion:lol:

No! its just rude

 

[Fyldewhite]

Germany has taken the 800,000 on humanitarian grounds, they never planned it. I have worked in Germany and have many German friends. The German people are not at all happy with the current situation and the Brake will have to be applied this year.

Those people from the war zones that have migrated to Germany, Sweden etc will at some point get the right to live in the UK. Also, when Turkey is allowed to become a member of the EU there will be a potential 80 Million people with an economic pull factor to come to Northern Europe. I fail to understand how this is good news for us.

So you think Germany has done this on purely humanitarian grounds. OK!

I know people there are not happy. Of course they are not, they have the same insecurities and worries that we have but that's all part of the "short term pain". My point is that there is a bigger picture, a much longer term picture and I feel that the debate in this country is being polarised around immigration as if we can't solve it without changing our countries whole future in so many completely unrelated ways. We can solve it within the EU, Germany will have to, France and the rest will have to and they will do so together possibly better than we will manage on our own.

 

[Hobbit]

So you think Germany has done this on purely humanitarian grounds. OK!

I know people there are not happy. Of course they are not, they have the same insecurities and worries that we have but that's all part of the "short term pain". My point is that there is a bigger picture, a much longer term picture and I feel that the debate in this country is being polarised around immigration as if we can't solve it without changing our countries whole future in so many completely unrelated ways. We can solve it within the EU, Germany will have to, France and the rest will have to and they will do so together possibly better than we will manage on our own.

Or as part of the greater EU they may impose a solution we don't agree with. It is the imposition of a rule etc by an outside agency that I disagree with.

 

[Ethan]

I'm not really sure what your point was in all of that, but it'd be nice to keep things civil.

I will take that as a confirmation you have no substantive reply to my post.

Your point that replenishing the population now doesn't last for ever demanded a sarcastic reply since an argument based purely on logic would seem likely to miss the mark. And your reply to it further confirms that.

 

[jp5]

I will take that as a confirmation you have no substantive reply to my post.

Your point that replenishing the population now doesn't last for ever demanded a sarcastic reply since an argument based purely on logic would seem likely to miss the mark. And your reply to it further confirms that.

Maybe you're just having a bad day, but possibly wise to reacquant yourself with the forum rules http://forums.golf-monthly.co.uk/showthread.php?53425-GM-forum-Updated-rules-guidelines then I'd be happy to discuss the point in hand.

 

[Ethan]

Maybe you're just having a bad day, but possibly wise to reacquant yourself with the forum rules http://forums.golf-monthly.co.uk/showthread.php?53425-GM-forum-Updated-rules-guidelines then I'd be happy to discuss the point in hand.

You are a cheeky bugger, aren't you? Do you find that is an adequate substitute for actually understanding stuff about the real world?

Not having a bad day at all, and know the rules perfectly well, thanks.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Or as part of the greater EU they may impose a solution we don't agree with. It is the imposition of a rule etc by an outside agency that I disagree with.

I'm with you there mate, all these stupid dress codes imposed by some out of touch committees, absolute disgrace, can't they just let me wear what I want without meddling and interfering!!!

 

[jp5]

You are a cheeky bugger, aren't you? Do you find that is an adequate substitute for actually understanding stuff about the real world?

Not having a bad day at all, and know the rules perfectly well, thanks.

Nope, just wondered where the bad attitude came from. I raised what I thought was a valid point, and one that could have evolved into a multifaceted discussion on population dynamics, but was met with sarcasm and underhand insults. Not to worry.

 

[SocketRocket]

I will take that as a confirmation you have no substantive reply to my post.

Your point that replenishing the population now doesn't last for ever demanded a sarcastic reply since an argument based purely on logic would seem likely to miss the mark. And your reply to it further confirms that.

Ethan. I know you are not discussing this with me but cant you see that the other party is only stating an opinion, they are not being sarcastic or rude. Why do you think it's OK to respond in such a sarcastic and arrogant manner? Why don't you just re-look at the posts with a detached view and I am sure you will observe that by simply asking relevant questions and putting polite points you could take the discussion much further and maybe even have a chance of influencing someone.

 

[Ethan]

Nope, just wondered where the bad attitude came from. I raised what I thought was a valid point, and one that could have evolved into a multifaceted discussion on population dynamics, but was met with sarcasm and underhand insults. Not to worry.

You have raised your valid point before and it has been pointed out to you that it makes no sense. Your argument is that bringing in kids to rebalance the ageing demographic doesn't work, because you have to do it again later. But you have been asked before for the alternative and haven't pointed out one.

The population is living longer. So it follows that to keep the age balance stable, you need more births or immigrant kids and must inevitably accept a larger population. If you don't accept that larger population and don't want the population to become older, with massively greater consumption of health and social care funded by an ever smaller working population, then what do you do? If you don't put kids in at the bottom end, then you must take oldies off the top end. So your plan is restrict immigration and instead impose euthanasia? No?, then it is a greying population with an economic time bomb where the budget goes bang in a few years. And of course you have to keep doing it until balance between birth rates and death rates is reached, which will be never.

The German plan to bring some respite by importing young immigrants is their only choice. They have the lowest fertility rate in the west but can't enforce greater reproduction nor euthanise oldies. The UK is not far behind the Germans in demographic terms and is relying on immigrants who have a higher fertility rate than indigenous.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Ethan. I know you are not discussing this with me but cant you see that the other party is only stating an opinion, they are not being sarcastic or rude. Why do you think it's OK to respond in such a sarcastic and arrogant manner? Why don't you just re-look at the posts with a detached view and I am sure you will observe that by simply asking relevant questions and putting polite points you could take the discussion much further and maybe even have a chance of influencing someone.

Good one

Like there is one single person on here who will be swayed by what a bunch of sad old gofers (guilty as charged) yakking away on the internet say.

 

[SocketRocket]

High levels of migration is only a way of delaying the issues of an ageing population, it's not a way of avoiding them.

Mass immigration is not the answer to an aging population because migrants get old too. A scheme of ever increasing levels of net migration to try to constrain the dependency ratio of working age to non-working age people cannot be truly sustainable in the long term. The spike in population created at the end of WW2 is only a temporary problem and will be offset somewhat by people working and contributing longer, the 400,000 or so annual birth rate and the foreseeable lowering of life expectancy due to things like the growing obesity rate and alcohol consumption. This will be more of a problem with the pressures on public services like the NHS.

 

[SocketRocket]

Good one

Like there is one single person on here who will be swayed by what a bunch of sad old gofers (guilty as charged) yakking away on the internet say.

Ethan is a very intelligent person and is very knowledgeable on certain subjects. With a better, well how can I put it, bedside manner he could well give some food for thought. Surely he only posts in such threads to challenge or influence.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Surely man U will have to get rid of Van Gaal soon, I mean it's a joke now, I seriously could have done just as well myself.



Ooops, sorry, I'm just copying and pasting my posts on 2 separate but almost identical threads. And I got the wrong one.