EU Referendum - are you Out or In

[Old Skier]

You are a cheeky bugger, aren't you? Do you find that is an adequate substitute for actually understanding stuff about the real world?

Not having a bad day at all, and know the rules perfectly well, thanks.

And your quite a wind up merchant who continues to snip at people who don't share your views.

 

[Fyldewhite]

High levels of migration is only a way of delaying the issues of an ageing population, it's not a way of avoiding them.

Mass immigration is not the answer to an aging population because migrants get old too. A scheme of ever increasing levels of net migration to try to constrain the dependency ratio of working age to non-working age people cannot be truly sustainable in the long term. The spike in population created at the end of WW2 is only a temporary problem and will be offset somewhat by people working and contributing longer, the 400,000 or so annual birth rate and the foreseeable lowering of life expectancy due to things like the growing obesity rate and alcohol consumption. This will be more of a problem with the pressures on public services like the NHS.

I've already had a go at explaining why the assertion above is wrong. Ethan has also explained in greater detail why we need an increased population to maintain the status quo (post #116). There is of course an alternative. Stop immigration, allow the population to become completely unbalanced and then tax the remaining workers much more. That would work. I've not seen a viable alternative to actually address this problem put forward so far. The Germans obviously have a strategy.....do we?

 

[bluewolf]

I've already had a go at explaining why the assertion above is wrong. Ethan has also explained in greater detail why we need an increased population to maintain the status quo (post #116). There is of course an alternative. Stop immigration, allow the population to become completely unbalanced and then tax the remaining workers much more. That would work. I've not seen a viable alternative to actually address this problem put forward so far. The Germans obviously have a strategy.....do we?

Increase the amount of taxpayers
Increase the amount each taxpayer pays
or
Decrease the amount of people of pensionable age.

Pick your favourite.

 

[SocketRocket]

I've already had a go at explaining why the assertion above is wrong. Ethan has also explained in greater detail why we need an increased population to maintain the status quo (post #116). There is of course an alternative. Stop immigration, allow the population to become completely unbalanced and then tax the remaining workers much more. That would work. I've not seen a viable alternative to actually address this problem put forward so far. The Germans obviously have a strategy.....do we?

Did you read all my post. If you did then maybe you could address the actual points I laid out in it.

 

[JohnnyDee]

Can't make up my mind but hoping this might unlock the puzzle

 

[SocketRocket]

Increase the amount of taxpayers
Increase the amount each taxpayer pays
or
Decrease the amount of people of pensionable age.

Pick your favourite.

I would suggest the large numbers of migrants the UK has seen since the mid 1990s has done little or nothing to increase tax revenues. There has always been room for highly skilled and professional migrants who are employable, pay tax and receive little in benefits. If we had an immigration policy based on the skills the country needed then indeed we would see a net benefit. This has not been the case though and far to many migrants have been unskilled and rather than a net asset have been a liability due to their low wages verses the tax thresholds and benefits received. Between 1995 and 2011 this deficit was in the region of 110 Billion pounds.

Immigration over the last twenty years has not made a net contribution (this takes into account of all immigration, not just EU) and as such is doing nothing to support an ageing population blip, it is putting strain on a whole raft of public services though.

So whats your choice?

 

[BoadieBroadus]

i'm probably more out than in. i just don't believe that anything is improved by having extra politicians.

 

[bluewolf]

I would suggest the large numbers of migrants the UK has seen since the mid 1990s has done little or nothing to increase tax revenues. There has always been room for highly skilled and professional migrants who are employable, pay tax and receive little in benefits. If we had an immigration policy based on the skills the country needed then indeed we would see a net benefit. This has not been the case though and far to many migrants have been unskilled and rather than a net asset have been a liability due to their low wages verses the tax thresholds and benefits received. Between 1995 and 2011 this deficit was in the region of 110 Billion pounds.

Immigration over the last twenty years has not made a net contribution (this takes into account of all immigration, not just EU) and as such is doing nothing to support an ageing population blip, it is putting strain on a whole raft of public services though.

So whats your choice?

Ha, my choice?? Well, all the options I've listed are based on our current Economic system. A system which demands constant growth, and doesn't take into account the fact that we have finite resources and a natural limit to growth. The current path is a relatively short term measure that is effectively a Pyramid scheme.

Therefore, the option I choose is................. None of the above. But that's another thread, on a different forum, at a different time.

Anyway, which is your preferred choice?

 

[SocketRocket]

Ha, my choice?? Well, all the options I've listed are based on our current Economic system. A system which demands constant growth, and doesn't take into account the fact that we have finite resources and a natural limit to growth. The current path is a relatively short term measure that is effectively a Pyramid scheme.

Therefore, the option I choose is................. None of the above. But that's another thread, on a different forum, at a different time.

Anyway, which is your preferred choice?

I had made it clear that it was none of your options. I have explained in a few recent posts that IMO we would be OK with managed immigration that brought in many fewer people of a kind that can make a net contribution. The current ageing population is only a blip and due to the 400,000 or so current births in the UK we don't need large numbers of migrants and certainly not low skill ones.

 

[Foxholer]

I would suggest the large numbers of migrants the UK has seen since the mid 1990s has done little or nothing to increase tax revenues....

All the evidence I've seen has indicated that migrants make a greater Net Annual Fiscal Contribution (ratio of taxes paid to benefits received) than natives - even when this is less than 1.0 (benefits received > taxes paid)

What (official) stats are you using?

 

[SocketRocket]

All the evidence I've seen has indicated that migrants make a greater Net Annual Fiscal Contribution (ratio of taxes paid to benefits received) than natives - even when this is less than 1.0 (benefits received > taxes paid)

What (official) stats are you using?

You need to look at the effects of 'All' immigration, not just from the EU.

 

[bluewolf]

I had made it clear that it was none of your options. I have explained in a few recent posts that IMO we would be OK with managed immigration that brought in many fewer people of a kind that can make a net contribution. The current ageing population is only a blip and due to the 400,000 or so current births in the UK we don't need large numbers of migrants and certainly not low skill ones.

If you don't mind me asking, why do you think the population imbalance is a "blip"?

 

[Foxholer]

You need to look at the effects of 'All' immigration, not just from the EU.

Indeed! I was!

I repeat....What official (and i'll add ' or independent') stats are you using?

 

[Beezerk]

So it turns out the deal Cameron struck with the EU last week can be cancelled by the European high court. Awesome.

 

[HomerJSimpson]

So it turns out the deal Cameron struck with the EU last week can be cancelled by the European high court. Awesome.

Does that mean we can go about life without having this referendum thrust down our throats at every turn. Bored rigid with it all already

 

[Foxholer]

So it turns out the deal Cameron struck with the EU last week can be cancelled by the European high court. Awesome.

It can certainly be challenged in it! It's the European Court of Justice btw.

But the likelihood of success is pretty tiny imo. As everything that needed to make it 'binding' would appear to have been done!

Just a bit of bluster to lessen the impact of 'the deal' imo!

 

[SocketRocket]

If you don't mind me asking, why do you think the population imbalance is a "blip"?

Baby Boomers and the current birth rate.

 

[SocketRocket]

Indeed! I was!

I repeat....What official (and i'll add ' or independent') stats are you using?

No time today but I will dig out the statistics showing that although EU migration has shown a small surplus, non EU migration has greatly offset this to create a net overall loss.

 

[bluewolf]

Baby Boomers and the current birth rate.

As far as I remember (and I'm happy to be corrected), the current birth rate was recorded as 1.83. The birth rate necessary to maintain a first World population is 2.07 (approximately). Life expectancy is static/still slightly rising but slowing. It has been a while since I did any real population growth research, but if my figures are correct then the problem is only going to get worse!

 

[Ethan]

As far as I remember (and I'm happy to be corrected), the current birth rate was recorded as 1.83. The birth rate necessary to maintain a first World population is 2.07 (approximately). Life expectancy is static/still slightly rising but slowing. It has been a while since I did any real population growth research, but if my figures are correct then the problem is only going to get worse!

Birth rate has been more or less stable for some decades, but life expectancy has been rising, so a right shift in the age distribution has happened, and a massive rise in birth rate will be needed to restore a decent balance between taxpaying workers and tax consuming oldies. It would also take decades to work through to a working age population. Hence the need to import young working age people and kids.