COVID-19 - So what would you do in the current situation?

[bobmac]

I'm liking your new role as bringer of good news ?. 'Bob the positive '

Thank you.
I always try and look for the silver lining, unlike others who will look for a cloud in a blue sky.
Life's too short to spend it moaning and complaining about stuff you can't fix.

If you want to fix something you don't like, get off your backside, get yourself elected as an MP and sort them all out if you're that clever.
Moaning and complaining on a golf forum will achieve absolutely nothing so stop wasting your time and stop dragging the forum into a depressing place to visit.


On a brighter note, for those who haven't seen it.............
Watch till the end.
Warning!
There will be a little colourful language

 

[Blue in Munich]

Nope, the reality is we have 5% having it and that's testing those we think had it, testing those that we don't think have it would bring that number down not up. I appreciate you want to support your opinion and have it validated. Unfortuantely it has not been and that is why no one else is saying or thinking 25% has been infected. I am sorry for that but it is what it is..

To add Whitty did say a lot of people won't actually get it at all, so either he is wrong again and more will get it like you say or people haven't had it like they say.

I say this wishing 25 or 30% had had it already, that would be far more favorable than only 5% having had it.

The reality is that we don't know until we test everyone how far it has spread. That is the reality. As far as having my opinion validated, have a re-read of post #16 in this thread and then the report in this link, particularly the sections I've bolded. I'm not the only one saying or thinking 25% have been infected;

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b


Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study

New epidemiological model shows urgent need for large-scale testing.

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

However, the modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group has been challenged by other scientists. They have pointed out that the study presents possible scenarios — based on assumptions about the nature of the virus, its virulence and its arrival from China — that contradict those supported by most epidemiologists.

The Oxford research suggests that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest and perhaps as early as December. It spread invisibly for a month or more before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February and the epidemic started to grow exponentially.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” Prof Gupta said.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.

However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.

The Oxford study is based on what is known as a “susceptibility-infected-recovered model” of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy. The researchers made what they regard as the most plausible assumptions about the behaviour of the virus.

The modelling brings back into focus “herd immunity”, the idea that the virus will stop spreading when enough people have become resistant to it because they have already been infected. The government abandoned its unofficial herd immunity strategy — allowing controlled spread of infection — after its scientific advisers said this would swamp the National Health Service with critically ill patients.

But the Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months. If the findings are confirmed by testing, then the current restrictions could be removed much sooner than ministers have indicated.

Although some experts have shed doubt on the strength and length of the human immune response to the virus, Prof Gupta said the emerging evidence made her confident that humanity would build up herd immunity against Covid-19. To provide the necessary evidence, the Oxford group is working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing on the general population as soon as possible, using specialised “neutralisation assays which provide reliable readout of protective immunity,” Prof Gupta said. They hope to start testing later this week and obtain preliminary results within a few days.

 

[Backache]

The reality is that we don't know until we test everyone how far it has spread. That is the reality. As far as having my opinion validated, have a re-read of post #16 in this thread and then the report in this link, particularly the sections I've bolded. I'm not the only one saying or thinking 25% have been infected;

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b


Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study

New epidemiological model shows urgent need for large-scale testing.

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

However, the modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group has been challenged by other scientists. They have pointed out that the study presents possible scenarios — based on assumptions about the nature of the virus, its virulence and its arrival from China — that contradict those supported by most epidemiologists.

The Oxford research suggests that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest and perhaps as early as December. It spread invisibly for a month or more before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February and the epidemic started to grow exponentially.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” Prof Gupta said.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.

However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.

The Oxford study is based on what is known as a “susceptibility-infected-recovered model” of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy. The researchers made what they regard as the most plausible assumptions about the behaviour of the virus.

The modelling brings back into focus “herd immunity”, the idea that the virus will stop spreading when enough people have become resistant to it because they have already been infected. The government abandoned its unofficial herd immunity strategy — allowing controlled spread of infection — after its scientific advisers said this would swamp the National Health Service with critically ill patients.

But the Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months. If the findings are confirmed by testing, then the current restrictions could be removed much sooner than ministers have indicated.

Although some experts have shed doubt on the strength and length of the human immune response to the virus, Prof Gupta said the emerging evidence made her confident that humanity would build up herd immunity against Covid-19. To provide the necessary evidence, the Oxford group is working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing on the general population as soon as possible, using specialised “neutralisation assays which provide reliable readout of protective immunity,” Prof Gupta said. They hope to start testing later this week and obtain preliminary results within a few days.

I don't think anyone even vaguely believes that model now.
The results that Whitty announced were based on random sampling of the population, so although not necessarily completely accurate will probably be a very good approximation. There is a long way to go with this virus.

 

[Deleted member 25172]

It's based upon personal knowledge of friends' circumstances, a number of whom had symptoms that matched those of Corona Virus back in December, the fact that the first Briton to catch it did so in Wuhan in November last year (link below), the BBC article yesterday that I posted elsewhere about a choir all suffering the symptoms in January (link reposted below) and most pertinently to me, the death of a family member last December who was admitted to hospital with "virus like symptoms" that were unexplained at the time of death but sound more and more like a Covid 19 related death the more that becomes known about the disease (link below). You can decide whether you think that's evidence or a hunch; I'm convinced that this was in the country well before March 23rd, and there is nothing that anybody can say that will change that.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8075633/First-British-victim-25-describes-coronavirus.html

https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/sport/natalie-harrowell-dead-family-support-3654402

We had a stint in December in our office where one after the other, me included, was knocked out for about a week or so with dry coughs, fever and aching bodies, spreading like a wildfire. I cannot remember the last time I’ve had the flu before that. Regular flu or perhaps corona? The thought of the latter has crossed my mind more than once.

 

[Blue in Munich]

I don't think anyone even vaguely believes that model now.
The results that Whitty announced were based on random sampling of the population, so although not necessarily completely accurate will probably be a very good approximation. There is a long way to go with this virus.

So which one should we believe...

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...hype-crisis-predictions-sars-swine-flu-panics

 

[Backache]

So which one should we believe...

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...hype-crisis-predictions-sars-swine-flu-panics

Frankly that article by Jenkins shows he knows sweet FA about science and it was written over 2 months ago.
The Oxford model was actually looking at possible interpretations of data as it existed then and the large potential number of infections at that point was one possible interpretation of the data. (The modellers as opposed to the press did not appear to think it was the most likely one).
The infection rate as stated by Whitty yesterday was based on actual measurement of random samples and is likely to be far more robust though the resultant estimate will be subject to error. I have not seen the figures published and we don't know what the confidence intervals are but it remains highly unlikely that a large proportion of the UK population has been infected, and certainly not to the point that they have developed antibodies.

 

[rudebhoy]

Good news
One million doses of the vaccine could be available by September

It's extremely unlikely we will have a working, tested vaccine in 4 months time.

BJ was making the point yesterday that we may never get a vaccine - SARS has been around for 18 years and still no vaccine.

 

[Slab]

It's extremely unlikely we will have a working, tested vaccine in 4 months time.

BJ was making the point yesterday that we may never get a vaccine - SARS has been around for 18 years and still no vaccine.

Kinda yes and no really. The NHS say "Since 2004, there have not been any known cases of SARS reported anywhere in the world"

While it'd be a bugger if you get it, there's not likely to be much effort being put into finding a vaccine if no ones had it in 16 years

 

[rudebhoy]

Kinda yes and no really. The NHS say "Since 2004, there have not been any known cases of SARS reported anywhere in the world"

While it'd be a bugger if you get it, there's not likely to be much effort being put into finding a vaccine if no ones had it in 16 years

Never knew that, makes you wonder why Johnson specifically mentioned the lack of a SARS vaccine yesterday! The NHS website does say that work to find a vaccine for SARS is ongoing, though I guess it might just be one man and a dog working on it.

 

[Slab]

Never knew that, makes you wonder why Johnson specifically mentioned the lack of a SARS vaccine yesterday! The NHS website does say that work to find a vaccine for SARS is ongoing, though I guess it might just be one man and a dog working on it.

Yeah probably one of those things we'd all think was still around (I know I did) and actively being worked on given the soundbite coverage its getting

 

[bobmac]

It's extremely unlikely we will have a working, tested vaccine in 4 months time.

BJ was making the point yesterday that we may never get a vaccine - SARS has been around for 18 years and still no vaccine.

So Boris says we may never get a vaccine and he may be right.
But a team of vaccinologists from Oxford university led by professor of vaccinology Sarah Gilbert don't agree.
I know who my money is on.

Nearly 80 companies and academic institutions are racing to produce one, and of those, five are already testing their vaccine candidates in people. The first of these to enter human trials – one produced by Boston-based biotech company Moderna – did so on 16 March.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/when-will-coronavirus-vaccine-be-ready

 

[Hobbit]

Never knew that, makes you wonder why Johnson specifically mentioned the lack of a SARS vaccine yesterday! The NHS website does say that work to find a vaccine for SARS is ongoing, though I guess it might just be one man and a dog working on it.

MERS is another Corona virus that's been around a while, 2012. Kills 35% of those that get it but it hasn't travelled much outside of the Middle East - found more in camels than humans. Symptoms are very similar to Covid-19. No vaccine for it.

 

[HomerJSimpson]

MERS is another Corona virus that's been around a while, 2012. Kills 35% of those that get it but it hasn't travelled much outside of the Middle East - found more in camels than humans. Symptoms are very similar to Covid-19. No vaccine for it.

Definitely still around as we have had cases in early 2020

 

[Swinglowandslow]

It's extremely unlikely we will have a working, tested vaccine in 4 months time.

BJ was making the point yesterday that we may never get a vaccine - SARS has been around for 18 years and still no vaccine.

That is because there came a time when the incidence( or non incidence ) of SARS made it not practical to continue trying for a vaccine.
What we have now is different. It is a pandemic, on a vast scale compared with SARS, so there is an overwhelming incentive to develop a vaccine.
Many countries are trying to and have been for some while.
Oxford Uni are at the point where human trials are being conducted and have been for some weeks. Together with production of the vaccine , should it be proved to be effective.
So, it's a different ball game