Chances of being in single figures within 2 years?

[One Planer]

You say your handicap is 23. Do you play to it o are you consistently over/under it?
 
To get to your goal in 2 years means getting cut best part of 7 shots over both years. Factor into this when you move up a category, say cat 4 to cat 3, the reduction becomes less. Instead of getting cut 0.4/shot, you'll get cut 0.3. The same will happen moving into Cat 2 (0.2/shot).
 
I think your buffer also loses a shot the lower you go. So on your current handicap buffer would be 4 shots, moving to 3 shots for cat 3 and 2 shots for cat 2. Bearing this in mind you'll need to be very, very consistent to keep shooting low and under your buffer.
 
As a side note, I can't understand why people pressure themselves with time frames. Just get the basics right, enjoy yourself and let your clubs handicap secretary worry about your handicap

 

[Monty_Brown]

The number of juniors I have seen go from 20-plus to single figures in the space of 12-18 months proves that it's possible, and I nearly did it myself when I was 15/16. Maybe a bit harder the older you get, but still achieveable.

Thinking about 0.4s, 0.3s, 0.2s, buffers etc is probably a recipe to drive you crackers. If you turned up and shot 5-over for every round, the handicap would take care of itself, Don't obsess on the numbers, just play, and there's no reason you can't get there.

I understand why you'd think about this sort of target and timeframe... most sportsmen have a naturally competitive instinct and like a challenge. A healthy thing if it doesn't impede your enjoyment.

 

[ScienceBoy]

I got to 12 in a smidge over a year of taking the game up seriously, if I had not had lost my job maybe I could have gone lower.

I also was not freshly new to golf having dabbled in it as a young teen and played a few rounds in each of the intervening years. I never played to any standard but I knew which end of the club to hold.