Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Doon frae Troon]

Where as with these intellectual and political heavyweights in charge all will be completely fine

https://twitter.com/x/status/1157670470038298624

Quite terrifying that someone that dim can be anywhere near a cabinet position.

On a brighter more positive note
Lord Ashcroft's Conservative Home poll has Scots independence at 52%
Majority of Scots prefer to be in EU than the UK.

 

[Hacker Khan]

The problem remains though, of how many genuine marginal seats are there? Where 'floaters' can have a real influence on the outcome...

Seems to be a few from this analysis.

In 2017 97 seats were won by a margin of 5% or less of votes cast – an increase on the 56 won by this narrow margin in the 2015 Election, and slightly more than the 91 in this category in the 2010 Election.

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8067

 

[MegaSteve]

Quite terrifying that someone that dim can be anywhere near a cabinet position.

On a brighter more positive note
Lord Ashcroft's Conservative Home poll has Scots independence at 52%
Majority of Scots prefer to be in EU than the UK.

One day you might even be brave enough to want true independence... Where you don't feel the need to cling onto the apron strings of others...

 

[Hacker Khan]

Quite terrifying that someone that dim can be anywhere near a cabinet position.

On a brighter more positive note
Lord Ashcroft's Conservative Home poll has Scots independence at 52%
Majority of Scots prefer to be in EU than the UK.

I think this is an increasing issue on both sides. In that the number of people to chose from to be in the cabinet is shrinking as they not only need to be a MP for that party, but they also need to buy into the particular brand of left or right ideology that is taking over both parties at the highest levels. As you are not telling me that Patel, Truss and Raab are the best people for the jobs they have. And before anyone else says it, yes there are equivalents on the Labour front bench as well.

 

[IanM]

One day you might even be brave enough to want true independence... Where you don't feel the need to cling onto the apron strings of others...

Would that position change when the SNP are told the level of EU Subs that the Independent Scotland would need to pay to participate?

 

[MegaSteve]

Seems to be a few from this analysis.

In 2017 97 seats were won by a margin of 5% or less of votes cast – an increase on the 56 won by this narrow margin in the 2015 Election, and slightly more than the 91 in this category in the 2010 Election.

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8067

iirc It was, in general, a low turnout in 2017 which might possibly be skewing the statistics... Plus, if others ballot papers were devoid of any independent candidates (as mine was) then that might also have some influence on statistics...

 

[Doon frae Troon]

One day you might even be brave enough to want true independence... Where you don't feel the need to cling onto the apron strings of others...

Do you mean countries like France, Germany, Italy, Holland Spain etc etc.
IMO it would be very foolish for a small nation to be isolated without allies in today's world

 

[MegaSteve]

Do you mean countries like France, Germany, Italy, Holland Spain etc etc.
IMO it would be very foolish for a small nation to be isolated without allies in today's world

The only response Brussels tolerates from "small nations" is...
How high?

 

[Doon frae Troon]

The only response Brussels tolerates from "small nations" is...
How high?

How high what

 

[Hacker Khan]

iirc It was, in general, a low turnout in 2017 which might possibly be skewing the statistics... Plus, if others ballot papers were devoid of any independent candidates (as mine was) then that might also have some influence on statistics...

Turnout at the 2017 General Election was 68.8% and was the fourth successive election where turnout increased.

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8060#fullreport

 

[drdel]

Do you mean countries like France, Germany, Italy, Holland Spain etc etc.
IMO it would be very foolish for a small nation to be isolated without allies in today's world

Just to be clear are you saying Scotland would much rather pay to be allied (even submissive) to any other group of nations than the UK?

 

[Grant85]

It seems increasingly likely we are headed towards a General Election.

Certainly the new Johnson administration trying to get domestic policy back on the agenda is surely a signal that they feel they will have to pull the trigger on an election as the numbers in parliament just don't allow any wriggle room. They are no doubt completely focused on beating Corbyn and feel that they can do that with remain vote splitting between Labour / Libs / SNP / Greens etc.

I listened to Heidi Allan on a podcast last week (a former Tory, Change UK MP) who is an independent MP. She is trying to pull together a remain alliance in England & Wales. Which successfully won the Brecon by-election last week - despite the Tories + Brexit Party having mroe votes than the Lib Dems (with Plaid & Greens standing aside).

I'd imagine the Tories and Brexit party might try something similar (will probably need to) - although possibly going to be tough given the Brexit party don't have any MPs and the Tories need desperately to hold onto all seats they have and gain a few Labour. Maybe the Tories would stand aside in a few Labour held North of England seats to give the Brexit Party a reasonably clear run to get a couple of MPs. But they would then have to give up standing in all other current Tory seats and target seats? Going to be tough for someone with the vanity and arrogance of Farage to agree to that.

On the other side, a remain alliance would require a lot of work as there will be a lot more people around the table and they will probably have to stand aside in constituencies with Pro-Remain Labour or Tories and not field any candidate for Libs, Green or Plaid.
That will be very tough to do in Lab / Tory marginals where the Libs or Greens have almost no support and it may not be 100% clear who would benefit from standing aside.

Ultimately, without Labour, their best hope is likely stopping a Tory majority, rather than anything that could really deliver anything effective.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Just to be clear are you saying Scotland would much rather pay to be allied (even submissive) to any other group of nations than the UK?

Aye, just like you have been for the last 40 odd years.

 

[MegaSteve]

Turnout at the 2017 General Election was 68.8% and was the fourth successive election where turnout increased.

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8060#fullreport

Oki dokey... Can't argue with Google 😉... Living in a constituency where there will only ever be one outcome probably has me down for a skewed opinion 😕...

 

[clubchamp98]

It seems increasingly likely we are headed towards a General Election.

Certainly the new Johnson administration trying to get domestic policy back on the agenda is surely a signal that they feel they will have to pull the trigger on an election as the numbers in parliament just don't allow any wriggle room. They are no doubt completely focused on beating Corbyn and feel that they can do that with remain vote splitting between Labour / Libs / SNP / Greens etc.

I listened to Heidi Allan on a podcast last week (a former Tory, Change UK MP) who is an independent MP. She is trying to pull together a remain alliance in England & Wales. Which successfully won the Brecon by-election last week - despite the Tories + Brexit Party having mroe votes than the Lib Dems (with Plaid & Greens standing aside).

I'd imagine the Tories and Brexit party might try something similar (will probably need to) - although possibly going to be tough given the Brexit party don't have any MPs and the Tories need desperately to hold onto all seats they have and gain a few Labour. Maybe the Tories would stand aside in a few Labour held North of England seats to give the Brexit Party a reasonably clear run to get a couple of MPs. But they would then have to give up standing in all other current Tory seats and target seats? Going to be tough for someone with the vanity and arrogance of Farage to agree to that.

On the other side, a remain alliance would require a lot of work as there will be a lot more people around the table and they will probably have to stand aside in constituencies with Pro-Remain Labour or Tories and not field any candidate for Libs, Green or Plaid.
That will be very tough to do in Lab / Tory marginals where the Libs or Greens have almost no support and it may not be 100% clear who would benefit from standing aside.

Ultimately, without Labour, their best hope is likely stopping a Tory majority, rather than anything that could really deliver anything effective.

This is spot on I think.
But it’s everything I hate about politics!
Doing deals with other parties just to get your nose in the trough.
I can’t see to many greens voting LD in a GE maybe a one off by election but not a GE.
If you can win the argument with your policies you should not be standing aside for someone else.
Some of the decisions the LDs made in coalition won’t sit well with Green Party voters.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

It seems increasingly likely we are headed towards a General Election.

Certainly the new Johnson administration trying to get domestic policy back on the agenda is surely a signal that they feel they will have to pull the trigger on an election as the numbers in parliament just don't allow any wriggle room. They are no doubt completely focused on beating Corbyn and feel that they can do that with remain vote splitting between Labour / Libs / SNP / Greens etc.

I listened to Heidi Allan on a podcast last week (a former Tory, Change UK MP) who is an independent MP. She is trying to pull together a remain alliance in England & Wales. Which successfully won the Brecon by-election last week - despite the Tories + Brexit Party having mroe votes than the Lib Dems (with Plaid & Greens standing aside).

I'd imagine the Tories and Brexit party might try something similar (will probably need to) - although possibly going to be tough given the Brexit party don't have any MPs and the Tories need desperately to hold onto all seats they have and gain a few Labour. Maybe the Tories would stand aside in a few Labour held North of England seats to give the Brexit Party a reasonably clear run to get a couple of MPs. But they would then have to give up standing in all other current Tory seats and target seats? Going to be tough for someone with the vanity and arrogance of Farage to agree to that.

On the other side, a remain alliance would require a lot of work as there will be a lot more people around the table and they will probably have to stand aside in constituencies with Pro-Remain Labour or Tories and not field any candidate for Libs, Green or Plaid.
That will be very tough to do in Lab / Tory marginals where the Libs or Greens have almost no support and it may not be 100% clear who would benefit from standing aside.

Ultimately, without Labour, their best hope is likely stopping a Tory majority, rather than anything that could really deliver anything effective.

Jo Swinson says she will work with Plaid but not the SNP. Weird rationale of the way an Alliance works there.
Bet she changes her mind when the SNP deliver 50 MP's at the next election.

 

[clubchamp98]

Aye, just like you have been for the last 40 odd years.

That’s why we want out! But you seem to want another higher authority to boss you about.

 

[drdel]

Aye, just like you have been for the last 40 odd years.

Yes the UK has had to submit to the increasingly undemocratic processes evolving in Brussels as its moves from the EEC towards federalism. Which is may be why the vote went the way it did.

Rather than having a dig I was hoping for a bit more of an explanation of how you really see it playing out if you got what you want.

 

[MegaSteve]

Aye, just like you have been for the last 40 odd years.

Travesty it took so long for the people to given the opportunity to show their disdain for Brussels...

 

[Deleted member 1418]

Yes the UK has had to submit to the increasingly undemocratic processes evolving in Brussels as its moves from the EEC towards federalism. Which is may be why the vote went the way it did.

Rather than having a dig I was hoping for a bit more of an explanation of how you really see it playing out if you got what you want.

Oh and don't forget to having been a significant contributor to EU budget whilst the majority of these new members have been recipients!! 😉