Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[doublebogey7]

Thats a loaded point. Most countries in the World are not in the EU. Are you suggesting the UK would trade under different circumstances.

Yes, as with a no deal Brexit we will be the only country in the world that doesn't have any sort of trade deal with any other country. Yet you and others are making it sound like every country other than the 28 do all their trade on WTO terms, fake news.

 

[Hobbit]

Yes, as with a no deal Brexit we will be the only country in the world that doesn't have any sort of trade deal with any other country. Yet you and others are making it sound like every country other than the 28 do all their trade on WTO terms, fake news.

I don't think anyone has said all the other countries only have WTO terms. I think you're making that up to suit your argument.

That said, WTO is better than tariff/quota based trading that the EU has with many countries.

 

[Hobbit]

On the issue of trading with the EU under WTO rules. The EU have great tool for calculating tariffs called the "Market Access Database." The database will tell you what the tariffs are, some of which are extremely high. And it also shows what licences and quotas must be met.

Exporting lamb, as a 3rd country, into the EU sees a tariff rate of 12% + 171€ per 100kg. Exporting lamb to the EU under WTO rules sees a zero tariff.

After spending an hour looking at a cross section of products I'm struggling to find products that suffer tariffs or quotas under WTO rules. Specific countries as 3rd countries do have some very high tariffs, and quotas, and some even have product blocks in place, e.g. China & steel - way too late but thats for a separate debate. But trading with the EU appears to be very easy, which begs the question, what benefit is there to the UK being outside the EU? Equally, what benefit is there to being in the EU? And what is all the fuss about? The fuss is about having the right regulations and licences in place, which the UK doesn't have BUT it does, as the EU knows, manufacture to EU regs now.

Originally, many years ago, it was about trade. If trade is no longer the issue it was, i.e. trade protections, just what is the benefit of being in? There's nothing there for the UK other than a massive amount of regulation and a massive annual bill for the privilege. To continue to trade, those regulations will still have to be met. The UK already meets a number of regulations for a number of non-EU countries in order to export to them.

The whole bloody story about not being able to trade is, in the main, a gigantic red herring. BUT the UK won't have the right licences to trade on Brexit day 1. Its about political will, not whether or not the UK builds shoddy products that don't conform to EU regs. But then you're back to the argument about trading under WTO, which is easy.... no it isn't because the UK won't have the right licences.

The only argument the EU have for not trading with the UK is licences(CE Markings), and that's all.

 

[Sweep]

On the issue of trading with the EU under WTO rules. The EU have great tool for calculating tariffs called the "Market Access Database." The database will tell you what the tariffs are, some of which are extremely high. And it also shows what licences and quotas must be met.

Exporting lamb, as a 3rd country, into the EU sees a tariff rate of 12% + 171€ per 100kg. Exporting lamb to the EU under WTO rules sees a zero tariff.

After spending an hour looking at a cross section of products I'm struggling to find products that suffer tariffs or quotas under WTO rules. Specific countries as 3rd countries do have some very high tariffs, and quotas, and some even have product blocks in place, e.g. China & steel - way too late but thats for a separate debate. But trading with the EU appears to be very easy, which begs the question, what benefit is there to the UK being outside the EU? Equally, what benefit is there to being in the EU? And what is all the fuss about? The fuss is about having the right regulations and licences in place, which the UK doesn't have BUT it does, as the EU knows, manufacture to EU regs now.

Originally, many years ago, it was about trade. If trade is no longer the issue it was, i.e. trade protections, just what is the benefit of being in? There's nothing there for the UK other than a massive amount of regulation and a massive annual bill for the privilege. To continue to trade, those regulations will still have to be met. The UK already meets a number of regulations for a number of non-EU countries in order to export to them.

The whole bloody story about not being able to trade is, in the main, a gigantic red herring. BUT the UK won't have the right licences to trade on Brexit day 1. Its about political will, not whether or not the UK builds shoddy products that don't conform to EU regs. But then you're back to the argument about trading under WTO, which is easy.... no it isn't because the UK won't have the right licences.

The only argument the EU have for not trading with the UK is licences(CE Markings), and that's all.

To most Brexiteers, trade is the only reason for being in the EU. However you have to understand that others actually consider federalism, currency, EU laws and courts, EU parliament and commission, UK contribution, FOM, unchecked immigration etc etc all good things and are reasons in themselves for being in the EU.


As far as I am aware, the CE mark is applied to products indicating conformity with EU standards on environment, health & safety etc. Not all products sold or imported into the EU have to carry it. I don’t see why such products that do carry the mark should have it withdrawn because they are made in the UK and the UK has left.

The main issue with WTO is on the face of it, duty. Usually 6.5% but can be changed product by product by the importing country. However, as we have seen with the US and China, if one starts increasing the tariffs the other one will too. In a free trade deal like we have with the EU as members now, there is no duty.

In truth, the main problem with not having a free trade deal is customs and the delivery delay it causes. This is why an openish goods border with goods cleared on delivery at the consignees premises is being touted.

 

[IanM]

However you have to understand that others actually consider federalism, currency, EU laws and courts, EU parliament and commission, UK contribution, FOM, unchecked immigration etc etc all good things and are reasons in themselves for being in the EU.
.

Um, no. They are not.

Hang on, I am not sure if you were being sarcastic!

 

[Sweep]

Um, no. They are not.

Hang on, I am not sure if you were being sarcastic!

I agree. They are not. Some people think they are though.

 

[woody69]

Just picking up on the Brexit debate, but have no wish to read back through all the posts.

I voted leave, and believe this is the best mid to long term decision for the country. We simply can't carry on allowing in millions of EU citizens when we don't have the homes for our own people. This has artificially driven up house prices and held back wages. The whole concept of the freedom of movement is crazy. Needless to say, having little control of our own laws, and financially supporting poorer EU countries also drives me mad.

The Labour party have used this entire situation for their own political needs, and appear to have no genuine interest in the country. TM is in an impossible situation, as a hard Brexit upsets the remainers and moderate Brexiteers, and the EU offer upsets the hard Brexiteers. In short, she is dammed if she does, and dammed if she doesn't. By changing the leader WILL NOT change what is on the table.

The country voted leave, and leave is what we must do. The EU offer will not change, so parliament now needs to decide, hard Brexit, or negotiated deal. Anything else is for political gain, and the idiots who are making our country look a laughing stock should be ashamed

I would recommend you do a little more research around the economic benefit EU migrants have brought to the UK. The failures of our governments with regards to housing, social care, transportation etc is not the fault of EU migrants. Nor is it their fault that the UK Government failed to implement the EU directives around immigration and FoM with regards to ensuring they are able to support themselves within 3 months and if not, be sent back.

Still, I don't blame you for having these views. The British media has been subtly playing on our fears of migrants for years.

 

[HughJars]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1075449599425503232

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

No doubts/dissatisfaction and definitely no guilt. The reason that we may be heading for a no deal falls squarely on the shoulders of remainers who have never accepted the people's vote and the remainers and opposition have proceeded to block any move that the government has made.

Wondered how long it would be before those that didn't want this mess were being blamed for it - and those responsible for decided it wasn't their fault.

The blame is 100% with those who wanted this. Besides - that many leading Leavers and many leave voters are now calling for a 'managed No Deal' - as if that is what all Leave voters voted for - simply trashes that shifting of blame. No Deal means just that - No Deal. And No Deal renders completely irrelevant everything that any Remain supporter might have said over the last two years.

No - the responsibility for any downside and disruption or chaos that results from leaving the EU sits 100% with one group and one group only. And that group is not that whch wanted none of this.

Dear Leavers - you won - get over it - and take responsibility for the consequences of your actions.

And on that I am back out of this thread.

 

[Old Skier]

Typical answer. The mess was a result of people not accepting the outcome of the referendum which even the most bias should be able to see that it gave the negotiating team no backing to resolve some of the more political matters. The EU worked on the split in the hope (which they still do) that we will do a Ireland or France.

Don't slam the door on the way out.

 

[Dando]

And on that I am back out of this thread

.....this is the funniest thing I have read.

maybe if your beloved EU had been a bit more interested in doing a deal with Cameron then the vote might have been different!

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Typical answer. The mess was a result of people not accepting the outcome of the referendum which even the most bias should be able to see that it gave the negotiating team no backing to resolve some of the more political matters. The EU worked on the split in the hope (which they still do) that we will do a Ireland or France.

Don't slam the door on the way out.

Sorry but I keep seeing this finger of blame at people who voted to remain but how can people who voted to stay in the EU be at fault for the Government having issues leaving ?

If it’s a blame game we are at this stage due to people who voted to leave the EU , it was never going to be an easy process but there is no way people who voted to leave should shoulder any blame

 

[Old Skier]

If it’s a blame game we are at this stage due to people who voted to leave the EU , it was never going to be an easy process but there is no way people who voted to leave should shoulder any blame

I think I agree with this

 

[Hacker Khan]

Sorry but I keep seeing this finger of blame at people who voted to remain but how can people who voted to stay in the EU be at fault for the Government having issues leaving ?

If it’s a blame game we are at this stage due to people who voted to leave the EU , it was never going to be an easy process but there is no way people who voted to leave should shoulder any blame

I'd argue it is a failure of effective governance, stoked by people on both sides who had personal interests at heart rather than the good of a whole nation. I really do think people will look back in years to come and wonder why we were so self destructive. And not in the sense of voting one way or the other, but the whole sorry shambles of the process.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

I would recommend you do a little more research around the economic benefit EU migrants have brought to the UK. The failures of our governments with regards to housing, social care, transportation etc is not the fault of EU migrants. Nor is it their fault that the UK Government failed to implement the EU directives around immigration and FoM with regards to ensuring they are able to support themselves within 3 months and if not, be sent back.

Still, I don't blame you for having these views. The British media has been subtly playing on our fears of migrants for years.

Woody, thank you for posting the brilliant Steven Fry link.
I wish it had been circulated earlier as I think Fry has honestly nailed Brexit as far as I am concerned.
I urge all posters to see it and if any leavers disagree with the content please post their reasons on here.

 

[Hobbit]

Wondered how long it would be before those that didn't want this mess were being blamed for it - and those responsible for decided it wasn't their fault.

The blame is 100% with those who wanted this. Besides - that many leading Leavers and many leave voters are now calling for a 'managed No Deal' - as if that is what all Leave voters voted for - simply trashes that shifting of blame. No Deal means just that - No Deal. And No Deal renders completely irrelevant everything that any Remain supporter might have said over the last two years.

No - the responsibility for any downside and disruption or chaos that results from leaving the EU sits 100% with one group and one group only. And that group is not that whch wanted none of this.

Dear Leavers - you won - get over it - and take responsibility for the consequences of your actions.

And on that I am back out of this thread.

I'd rather look back a little further than the last few years. Maybe 1992 when the Maastricht Treaty was signed. That ended the EEC, and the European Union was formed. The next 17 years saw a creeping federalisation, the next big step being the Lisbon Treaty in 2009.

I'd argue that the UK's political elite deciding, without reference to the electorate as Ireland and Denmark did, to sign the Lisbon Treaty was pretty much the final straw. If the UK had a constitution like Ireland, where any EU treaty must go to a referendum we might be in a better place now. Probably still in the EU but a much modified EU.

I blame Toxic Tony and Labour.

 

[Hacker Khan]

I'd rather look back a little further than the last few years. Maybe 1992 when the Maastricht Treaty was signed. That ended the EEC, and the European Union was formed. The next 17 years saw a creeping federalisation, the next big step being the Lisbon Treaty in 2009.

I'd argue that the UK's political elite deciding, without reference to the electorate as Ireland and Denmark did, to sign the Lisbon Treaty was pretty much the final straw. If the UK had a constitution like Ireland, where any EU treaty must go to a referendum we might be in a better place now. Probably still in the EU but a much modified EU.

I blame Toxic Tony and Labour.

mmmm, I think blaming Tony Blair for the current Brexit mess is stretching it a bit and kind of letting people a bit more 'contemporary' off the hook.

 

[MegaSteve]

I blame Toxic Tony and Labour.

Edwina's bed mate has to shoulder his fair share of blame...

 

[Hobbit]

mmmm, I think blaming Tony Blair for the current Brexit mess is stretching it a bit and kind of letting people a bit more 'contemporary' off the hook.

I'm not letting the current crew off the hook but I don't think a few months of campaigning for a referendum, when most would have already had entrenched views of the EU, is valid. Disenchantment with the EU goes a lot further back. It could be argued that Cameron gave the majority of electorate what they asked for.

 

[Hacker Khan]

I'm not letting the current crew off the hook but I don't think a few months of campaigning for a referendum, when most would have already had entrenched views of the EU, is valid. Disenchantment with the EU goes a lot further back. It could be argued that Cameron gave the majority of electorate what they asked for.

We may be talking about different things here. I thought the original post about blame being thrown around was referring to the mess we are in with regards to the process, i.e. why are we in the state we are currently in. I would argue there was a way to exit in an orderly fashion that would have got some level of agreement. Where as you seem to be looking more at reasons why some are very disenchanted with the EU. I suspect quite a few people are very disenchanted with the EU but also appalled with how we are handling the leave process.