Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[IanM]

Britain must be the only example in history where people are threatening riots if there's more democracy.

That's a hoot... any riot would be about the Referendum being deliverately ignored..... but you know that! Top Trolling!

 

[Hobbit]

My 'simple' point was not whether the nations' decisions were in-themselves, right, wrong or simply misguided. It was as elected Governments they had the right to enact the policies on which they were elected.

The original EC aim of trade between like minded nations has progressively moved and continues to develop and have aspirations that further subsume and undermine the opinions of citizens. Giving rise to and fuelling the populist trend in many member states.

Its a club. There's rules. Adhere to the rules or do a Brexit. I agree that if nations want pure sovereignty they should decide every single law but if they're part of the club...

 

[Hobbit]

Brian, had the EU not accepted Greece's "imaginative" accounts, they wouldn't be in & therefore they wouldn't be entitled to the bailout, surely? I blame the EU for this one.

The economic crash that the world went through was triggered by the USA's sub-prime mortgaging. Countries over extended based on an expected continuation of the financial bubble. The Uk's debt was/is far worse. Its only the UK's ability to service it, and the austerity which has gone on far too long. that has meant the UK isn't in the same boat as Greece. As an aside, I worry that Brexit will turn the UK into a Greece in terms of not being able to service its debts.

 

[Mudball]

To those who prefer the EU rather than the UK democratic 'rule' I'd like to look at the member states whole have elected governments which have then been ordered to ignore their election promises...
Italy, not allowed to budget.
Hungary,
Poland
Greece etc.
The national politics have been over-ruled by the largely unelected 'centre'. IMO explains much of the unrest and populist growth - France is pretty unhappy!

What about Germany, France and the ilk.. Germany pays a big share into the EU finance, but has enough laws to defend its industry and workers. Today I can see what all my teams across Europe are working on EXCEPT Germany - just because German laws prevent a non-germany based manager to get involved in Germany based employees.

In short, dont blame the EU for the incompetence of our politicians and mandarins. We signed away our bits, but not everyone does. Germany still abides by the EU laws but also has its own to protect its own.

 

[IanM]

Club, Trading Bloc or Federal State?? So hard to tell, isnt it!

 

[Old Skier]

A genuine question to the Leavers ... Are you happy that Britian leaves without a Deal? or is there a sense of doubt/dissatisfaction/guilt squirreling away in your tummy?

No doubts/dissatisfaction and definitely no guilt. The reason that we may be heading for a no deal falls squarely on the shoulders of remainers who have never accepted the people's vote and the remainers and opposition have proceeded to block any move that the government has made.

 

[doublebogey7]

According to some, all we'll do is put WTO things in to effect. No problem...they say. Seems ok.

Have you any idea how many countries trade solely on WTO terms??

 

[IanM]

The economic crash that the world went through was triggered by the USA's sub-prime mortgaging. Countries over extended based on an expected continuation of the financial bubble. The Uk's debt was/is far worse. Its only the UK's ability to service it, and the austerity which has gone on far too long. that has meant the UK isn't in the same boat as Greece. As an aside, I worry that Brexit will turn the UK into a Greece in terms of not being able to service its debts.

Greece has never been run well. Running it on the same interest and exchange rates as Germany has made it worse. But that was the idea. Greece is now shackled to the EU completely

 

[drdel]

Greece has never been run well. Running it on the same interest and exchange rates as Germany has made it worse. But that was the idea. Greece is now shackled to the EU completely

While EU keeps getting the interest payments.

 

[SocketRocket]

Have you any idea how many countries trade solely on WTO terms??

Most major economies, including those in the EU trade on WTO terms.

How many countries trade under EU rules.

 

[Hobbit]

Greece has never been run well. Running it on the same interest and exchange rates as Germany has made it worse. But that was the idea. Greece is now shackled to the EU completely

If Germany is a successful economy, why would running Greece the same way make it worse? I thought Greece's problems were more associated with the stupid public spending and lack of tax revenue. Public sector workers were allowed to retire on full pension from 45 yrs of age. The statutory retirement age was between 45 and 65 dependent on job, with the average retirement age of 61. Pensions alone contributed 17% of GDP. The worst performing economy in the EU had the best benefits programme, backed by some of the strongest and most belligerent unions in the EU.

Mmm, sorry for Greece? No. Sorry for some of the pain many honest Greeks went through, yes.

 

[Slime]

If Germany is a successful economy, why would running Greece the same way make it worse? I thought Greece's problems were more associated with the stupid public spending and lack of tax revenue. Public sector workers were allowed to retire on full pension from 45 yrs of age. The statutory retirement age was between 45 and 65 dependent on job, with the average retirement age of 61. Pensions alone contributed 17% of GDP. The worst performing economy in the EU had the best benefits programme, backed by some of the strongest and most belligerent unions in the EU.

Mmm, sorry for Greece? No. Sorry for some of the pain many honest Greeks went through, yes.

The problem is, right now, it isn't!

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...spell-the-end-for-merkel-20180703-p4zp3p.html

 

[Hobbit]

The problem is, right now, it isn't!

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...spell-the-end-for-merkel-20180703-p4zp3p.html

Isn't that playing with numbers? The contraction in the German economy still leaves it growing, just not as quickly. Sounds like the UK economy? Also, if you have an economy the size of Germany's, and it grows only 1.8% as predicted, 1.8% of a large number is bigger than 1.8% of a small number.

What is a concern in Germany, and in the other countries with large car manufacturing businesses is the 31% drop in sales year on year. Diesel sales are through the floor, courtesy of very poor legislation and muddled thinking from the EU.

JLR blaming Brexit is a huge red herring, and is recognised as poor board room mgt but it doesn't stop the boss of JLR making banner headline statements about Brexit.

 

[Old Skier]

From Sky News

The European Commission has proposed that trucks from the UK will be "temporarily allowed" to carry goods into the EU until the end of 2019 under a 'no-deal' Brexit provided that the UK offers equivalent rights to the EU

 

[IanM]

If Germany is a successful economy, why would running Greece the same way make it worse? I thought Greece's problems were more associated with the stupid public spending and lack of tax revenue.

Absolutely right about their Public Sector.... but I wasnt suggesting they are running it “like Germany,” but that Greece is being run on exchange and interest rates inappropriate for the state if their economy. (the sliding Drachma kept Greece competitive in a perverse way!).

 

[doublebogey7]

Most major economies, including those in the EU trade on WTO terms.

How many countries trade under EU rules.

Currently 28 more than trade on WTO terms alone.

 

[SocketRocket]

Currently 28 more than trade on WTO terms alone.

Thats a loaded point. Most countries in the World are not in the EU. Are you suggesting the UK would trade under different circumstances.

 

[Sweep]

Well I for one am pleased that we are putting 3500 military personnel on standby just in case of a hard Brexit. Not entirely sure why we would think we need military personnel on standby for something that is apparently such a good thing for the country according to some folks. Perhaps it will be to assist with all the street parties that will be breaking out in celebration.

Hmmm, I wonder what they do when they are not on stand by? Isn’t that the whole point of the military?

 

[Sweep]

Its a club. There's rules. Adhere to the rules or do a Brexit. I agree that if nations want pure sovereignty they should decide every single law but if they're part of the club...

When you say do a Brexit I assume you mean try to leave?
As we know, leaving the club is not as easy as joining it. And most of the rules weren’t there when we, or Greece for that matter, joined.

 

[Sweep]

If Germany is a successful economy, why would running Greece the same way make it worse? I thought Greece's problems were more associated with the stupid public spending and lack of tax revenue. Public sector workers were allowed to retire on full pension from 45 yrs of age. The statutory retirement age was between 45 and 65 dependent on job, with the average retirement age of 61. Pensions alone contributed 17% of GDP. The worst performing economy in the EU had the best benefits programme, backed by some of the strongest and most belligerent unions in the EU.

Mmm, sorry for Greece? No. Sorry for some of the pain many honest Greeks went through, yes.

You are assuming that you can just take an economy like Greece and make it as successful as Germany overnight. You can’t. These are two vastly different economies with very different cultures and indeed working conditions. Try asking the average German to work in 40 degrees for example and that’s just a small point.
This in my view is one of the failings of the whole EU concept. It’s idealistic. It thinks you can raise the weakest economies to the level of the strongest and that you can treat them all the same. Whilst the intention is good the reality just isn’t there.
A good government creates the conditions to make a good economy. It can’t just magic it up.
Now, I think we all accept that Greece was not run well. My Greek customers accept that. There was always going to be a day of reckoning. But the way Germany has lead this is wrong and the way Germany has benefitted is nothing short of a disgrace.
Interestingly my Greek friends tell me that they admire the UK for Brexit but fear they have lost their real friend in the EU.