Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Lord Tyrion]

165?? i thought it was 117?

It's a line the anti May MP's are rolling out. 165 Conservative MP's are either ministers, PPS's, assistants etc, effectively not just MP's but in an extra job that makes them employees of the govt and so beholden to their employer. Those 165 MP's are more likely to vote for TM because she gave them their job in govt, not as an MP but as part of the govt. If you exclude them then of the backbenchers, not part of the govt machine, the majority voted against TM.

I'm not saying I agree with their line of thinking, this is just an explanation of the numbers and the line they are coming out with. Jacob Rees Mogg has this approach for example.

One sobering comment I saw yesterday was that next time TM walks into the chamber she will know that 2/3 of the MP's in there, all of them, don't think she is up to it. That must do wonders for your confidence.

 

[Dando]

Disception and personal gain ?? 🧐

every MP can be accused of deception.
how have they gained personally?

 

[Sweep]

Remember 165 of Mays supporters in the no confidence vote were on the government payroll.
They would have been voting for the sack from their 'extra' job if they had not supported her.

165 seems like a very big number to me,

I never thought I would see you agree with Jacob Rees Mogg!

 

[ger147]

Remember 165 of Mays supporters in the no confidence vote were on the government payroll.
They would have been voting for the sack from their 'extra' job if they had not supported her.

165 seems like a very big number to me,

It was a secret ballot so they could have easily voted against her without risking the sack, it's a nonsense argument...

 

[jp5]

It was a secret ballot so they could have easily voted against her without risking the sack, it's a nonsense argument...

I'd have to say it's not a nonsense argument - those on the payroll of the Government would be risking their job under a different leader, so you'd expect most of them to vote with the PM.

 

[ger147]

I'd have to say it's not a nonsense argument - those on the payroll of the Government would be risking their job under a different leader, so you'd expect most of them to vote with the PM.

Happy to agree to disagree, it's a nonsense argument.

 

[drdel]

To those who say...

Sack PM - wouldn't change the 'deal' the EU has become entrenched in their protection against other members temptation to leave.
General election - no change in stance by EU and Labour is split as much as Tories. Irish issue stays the same.
Cross Party compact - probably result in hung decision and, in any case, the EU will still play silly beggars by their entrenchment.
Second vote - disaster for democracy/Parliament's credibility. Why pander to those who couldn't be a**ed to vote last time obviously don't have a strong view so you could imagine a near 50/50 split.
Leave on 29/03/19 under WTO: not really as damaging as reported but it would honour the result and not split Parliament beyond recovery.

IMO taking a small short-term hit and going for a WTO setup would be by far the best long term result for the UK. EU is in turmoil and costs are out of control hence their need for a 'federal' plan. Growth in Europe is stagnating.

 

[Taz]

https://order-order.com/2018/12/13/sturgeons-brexit-showboating-slammed-supreme-court/

 

[Doon frae Troon]

I never thought I would see you agree with Jacob Rees Mogg!

Yea I was quoting him thinking he was a man of good standing.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

https://order-order.com/2018/12/13/sturgeons-brexit-showboating-slammed-supreme-court/

Or a different view of the judgement

.https://stv.tv/news/politics/1433719-supreme-court-rules-out-parts-of-holyrood-brexit-bill/

 

[Sweep]

To those who say...

Sack PM - wouldn't change the 'deal' the EU has become entrenched in their protection against other members temptation to leave.
General election - no change in stance by EU and Labour is split as much as Tories. Irish issue stays the same.
Cross Party compact - probably result in hung decision and, in any case, the EU will still play silly beggars by their entrenchment.
Second vote - disaster for democracy/Parliament's credibility. Why pander to those who couldn't be a**ed to vote last time obviously don't have a strong view so you could imagine a near 50/50 split.
Leave on 29/03/19 under WTO: not really as damaging as reported but it would honour the result and not split Parliament beyond recovery.

IMO taking a small short-term hit and going for a WTO setup would be by far the best long term result for the UK. EU is in turmoil and costs are out of control hence their need for a 'federal' plan. Growth in Europe is stagnating.

I agree with this post, but would add that Mrs May should never have agreed with the EU to “her” deal in the first place and brought it back to Parliament. It has effectively given the EU the opportunity to entrench themselves in this deal and bringing it back for approval has made her look weak - which she probably is.

 

[Hobbit]

To those who say...

Sack PM - wouldn't change the 'deal' the EU has become entrenched in their protection against other members temptation to leave.
General election - no change in stance by EU and Labour is split as much as Tories. Irish issue stays the same.
Cross Party compact - probably result in hung decision and, in any case, the EU will still play silly beggars by their entrenchment.
Second vote - disaster for democracy/Parliament's credibility. Why pander to those who couldn't be a**ed to vote last time obviously don't have a strong view so you could imagine a near 50/50 split.
Leave on 29/03/19 under WTO: not really as damaging as reported but it would honour the result and not split Parliament beyond recovery.

IMO taking a small short-term hit and going for a WTO setup would be by far the best long term result for the UK. EU is in turmoil and costs are out of control hence their need for a 'federal' plan. Growth in Europe is stagnating.

Agree with pretty much all of that, as it reads, but there is one thing none of us know.

What agreements and assurances were given either way when Corbyn went over, on several occasions, to meet the EU? I think it was very wrong for them to have those meetings.

As a conspiracy theory, seeing as its panto season, the EU give May a hard time, knowing its unlikely to fly with the Tories but offer Corbyn all sorts of incentives to block the deal providing, when he's elected, he keeps the UK in the EU. Or if the UK are already out by the time Labour gain power, he then takes the UK back into the EU.

 

[drdel]

Agree with pretty much all of that, as it reads, but there is one thing none of us know.

What agreements and assurances were given either way when Corbyn went over, on several occasions, to meet the EU? I think it was very wrong for them to have those meetings.

As a conspiracy theory, seeing as its panto season, the EU give May a hard time, knowing its unlikely to fly with the Tories but offer Corbyn all sorts of incentives to block the deal providing, when he's elected, he keeps the UK in the EU. Or if the UK are already out by the time Labour gain power, he then takes the UK back into the EU.

Yup.there was said to be honour among thieves, but you couldn't even hint at it being true for many polictians.

However I'm not sure they have the brain cells to cook up much of a underhand plan especially when Barnier and Co. are unable to stay off Twitter for more than 10mins.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Yup.there was said to be honour among thieves, but you couldn't even hint at it being true for many polictians.

However I'm not sure they have the brain cells to cook up much of a underhand plan especially when Barnier and Co. are unable to stay off Twitter for more than 10mins.

I've seen several insults thrown at the EU team for being twitter obsessed, not having many brain cells and even being drunk. But count your blessings, as based on the outcome of the negotiations, it's a good job they are not vaguely intelligent, gave it their full attention and sobered up or we would be in real trouble. Also doesn't say much for Davis, Raab and 'Insert this week's name here' as negotiators or even our ability to negotiate favourable trade deals in the future if we can't outfox drunk thickos who are constantly updating their profile pictures.

 

[IanM]

So, he hasnt been pictured "a wee bit sozzled then?" (often) Sorry, my mistake

Negiotation like this is easy. I would have thought the current terms were agreed about 18 months ago... you know the rest, I am not repeating it again

 

[Hobbit]

So, he hasnt been pictured "a wee bit sozzled then?" (often) Sorry, my mistake

Negiotation like this is easy. I would have thought the current terms were agreed about 18 months ago... you know the rest, I am not repeating it again

He was bladdered. But MD’s of companies don’t do the negotiating. They give their team a brief, and it’s up to the team to sort the detail.

 

[jp5]

I hear May gave the "Brexit means Brexit" line to the EU leaders last night... I think we could be in trouble...

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Last week or so the Dominic Grieve amendment was supposed to ensure that either parliament accepted the TM deal or a soft Brexit was the likely outcome. Now that the EU have rejected any alteration to the TM deal and that will surely get rejected I can't see any deal other than a no deal Brexit as I don't see anything getting the approval of parliament. Am I wrong? Am I misreading what has happened?

 

[jp5]

No chance Parliament would allow a no deal Brexit to happen, can't imagine we're in any way ready for that.

 

[IanM]

I am sure you are right.... but that doesnt mean some Agencies havent prepared for the possibilty!