jp5
Q-School Graduate
It's not very complicated really....
Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!
- Thread starter drdel
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MegaSteve
Tour Winner
I will take a look when I get back from physio later...
drdel
Tour Rookie
HoL did form the opinion that 'legally' we could ignore the number!
Hacker Khan
Yurt Dwelling, Yoghurt Knitter
Legally we could probably do a lot of things, ignore the referendum result, delay Article 50, claim it was all a bad dream and wake up in the shower and none of this ever happened. In reality who knows what will happen.
Foxholer
Blackballed
And the EU could 'punish' the UK in return - and there'd possibly/probably be tit-for-tat reaction ad-nauseum! Not the best result for either side, and likely to quite seriously damage the UK economy - certainly if London's Financial dominance was 'attacked', as could quite simply/easily be done - with a knock-on effect on UK businesses!
https://www.bba.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/webversion-BQB-3-1.pdf
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
Of course it won't as the government want it to be negative. The treasury have been consistently wrong in their predictions and will make every effort to make their predictions and options appear as facts. I believe nothing they say based on their track record.
Hacker Khan
Yurt Dwelling, Yoghurt Knitter
Genuine question, who would you believe when it comes to economic forecasting of the impact of Brexit? Is it just the case that no one can know for certain so it is a waste of time doing such things? Or are some organisations so biased that they can not be trusted?
Foxholer
Blackballed
Well, even the predicted 150Bn over 15 years (10Bn/year for those with no arithmetic skills!) is actually something of a drop in a bucket! UK's GDP is 2.6Trillion USD, down from 3 Trillion in 2014 - and have we noticed? Supposedly the period of austerity (since 2008's 'crash') is over, but has that even been noticeable - and with a declining GDP?
Doon frae Troon
Ryder Cup Winner
Mrs May at PMQ's avoids the awkward question [as usual] then boasts to Ian Blackford that Scotland voted for 13 Tory MP's.
What an achievement, especially as about half of them only got there on the backs of Scottish Labour votes.
What an achievement, especially as about half of them only got there on the backs of Scottish Labour votes.
Foxholer
Blackballed
That - and spinning a positve (for them) message - is exactly what the party in power is 'meant to do' at QT! It's only in subsequent examination (consequentials) that the opposition can actually score any real points!
How they got there is unimportant! The fact that they got there is what's really important - both to the Tories (obviously) and to Scotland (imo)!
In the last 24 hours I've heard 4 official figures for the dip in the UK's economic performance, 3 of which are for No Deal.
-5.5%, -7.5%, -3.5%. The last 2 attributed to the Treasury. And -1.5% if the Deal is accepted.
Will there be a dip? Obviously. How long it will last for will depend on how the UK does with global deals, bearing in mind the sweeteners it can offer when it isn't tied to tariffs, quotas and corporate tax rates.
To repeat, there will, in my opinion, be a dip. But where 'o where is the credibility in producing 3 different official figures? Once one lot was out there why the other 'officials' don't just shut the ... up I don't know. The credibility for those figures just gets blown out of the water by those that feel they need to put their bit out there.
-5.5%, -7.5%, -3.5%. The last 2 attributed to the Treasury. And -1.5% if the Deal is accepted.
Will there be a dip? Obviously. How long it will last for will depend on how the UK does with global deals, bearing in mind the sweeteners it can offer when it isn't tied to tariffs, quotas and corporate tax rates.
To repeat, there will, in my opinion, be a dip. But where 'o where is the credibility in producing 3 different official figures? Once one lot was out there why the other 'officials' don't just shut the ... up I don't know. The credibility for those figures just gets blown out of the water by those that feel they need to put their bit out there.
I spoke too soon. There's now an 8%... unbelievable.
No deal Brexit would cause pound to crash, say Bank of England
The Bank of England has warned the pound would crash, inflation will soar and interest rates would have to rise in the event of a no deal disorderly Brexit.
In the event of a disorderly no deal, no transition Brexit, Britain's GDP could fall by 8% from its level in the first quarter of 2019, according to analysis of a worst case scenario by the Bank.
The unemployment rate would rise 7.5% and inflation would surge 6.5%. House prices are forecast to decline 30%, while commercial property prices are set to fall 48%. The pound would fall by 25% to less than parity against both the US dollar and the euro.
However, major British banks have "levels of capital and liquidity to withstand even a severe economic shock that could be associated with a disorderly Brexit", the Bank concluded from tests of banks' financial resilience.
Britain's banking system is "strong enough to continue to serve UK households and businesses even in the event of a disorderly Brexit", the Bank said.
IanM
Journeyman Pro
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I am blaming you Hobbit.... but of course, the Spanish will be rounding you up and sticking you in an internment camp the day after Brexit! Fallng GDP will be the least of your worries!
Full campaign now to stop it, which it will. Pretty much as I have said since the day after Referendum.... shame the orig thread has gone
Full campaign now to stop it, which it will. Pretty much as I have said since the day after Referendum.... shame the orig thread has gone
Ha! My mum was Irish. They'll round up the Brits. There'll be cheap property up for grabs, and thanks god for index linked pensions.
I do find the current exaggerations very unhelpful. Unfortunately, many will want to believe the worst, and others will be clueless anyway.
Hacker Khan
Yurt Dwelling, Yoghurt Knitter
Probably because crapping our economic forecasts is some organisations reason for being so they kind of feel they have to. In the treasury document there are a wide number of figures in different scenarios, so I imagine the reported headlines in the media are not always comparing apples with apples https://assets.publishing.service.g...ber_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis.pdf
However the fact that every forecast predicts that we will be worse means that chances are, that will happen to some degree, with a hard brexit more likely to cause more damage. How people interpret that is purely up to them.
Some may say 'OK I understand that that is likely to happen but I am OK with it in order so we can reach the goals around x,y and z that I want to see from brexit'. Some may look at that and say 'jesus wept, why the hell are we intentionally doing this to ourselves'. And others may decide to ignore all of it and pretend it will never happen as the figures do not identically match up. Personally response 1 and 2 is fine with me, but response 3 is a bit head in the sand for my liking.
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
Here we go again, rolling out the Treasury and BOE naysayers, Were Doomed, blah blah, no jobs blah blah, no food blah blah, prices up houses down blah blah, inflation up pound down blah blah blah. They will be rolling out Obama, Major and Hezza soon. Were doomed I tell you Doomed.
bluewolf
Money List Winner
Says the man who happily rolls out the opposite end of the forecast spectrum as evidence of the promised land.
You're just as bad as those that believe the doom-mongers. Please tell me you can see this?
D
Deleted member 15344
Guest
What if they are right ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46377309
What if Brexit does make us worse off overall - is it worth leaving them.
Leaving such a big trade market with zero other trades in place etc etc could well leave a big hole in place, people could see us as a lame duck to exploit
All this “lets be brave etc etc†is it based on reality or dreams ?
Is there a chance of being hit by a bigger recession? Can anyone write that off
This could be the worse thing we as a nation could do, and some of us on here have a long working life ahead of us.
Fade and Die
Medal Winner
All of this ‘Mystic Meg’ prediction rubbish is doing my head in. NOBODY KNOWS what will happen……NOBODY!!! This is nothing but scaremongering tactics to make the great unwashed think that their considered vote to leave the EU was wholeheartedly wrong and we should all feel very guilty (and IT WAS a considered vote, not the brainwashed and blinkered vote that patronising remoaners still keep spewing on about)
Basically, according to soothsayers like Hammond and Carney, if the country goes down the toilet, it will be all our fault and a curse on all of our houses. It is straight to ‘the naughty step’ for all of us (bloody ‘ell, that’ll be crowded)
Until I see for myself exactly what occurs, I couldn’t give a monkeys what these doom merchants predict. They can stick their forecasts up their arris…..
Basically, according to soothsayers like Hammond and Carney, if the country goes down the toilet, it will be all our fault and a curse on all of our houses. It is straight to ‘the naughty step’ for all of us (bloody ‘ell, that’ll be crowded)
Until I see for myself exactly what occurs, I couldn’t give a monkeys what these doom merchants predict. They can stick their forecasts up their arris…..
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
Thank you for your observations.
I see the situation from a viewpoint based on my own considerations and not as a part of the establishment working to scare the public into accepting a very bad deal. So No I dont see that.
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