Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

Status
Not open for further replies.
Foxholer said:
Well, even the predicted 150Bn over 15 years (10Bn/year for those with no arithmetic skills!) is actually something of a drop in a bucket! UK's GDP is 2.6Trillion USD, down from 3 Trillion in 2014 - and have we noticed? Supposedly the period of austerity (since 2008's 'crash') is over, but has that even been noticeable - and with a declining GDP?
Click to expand...

I know you like to be the oracle but there is such a thing as inflation so your arithmetic average of £10bn pa in 2033 is only worth somewhere north of £7.5bn in today's money, set against only moderate growth in the £3.5tn over the same period. It ain't worth bothering too much especially as the EU keeps raising its budget significantly higher than inflation so the rise in the UK's potential contribution could easily dwarf Hammond's number!!

In fact Hammond's paper is pretty devoid of stated assumptions on inflation.
 
Liverpoolphil said:
What if they are right ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46377309

What if Brexit does make us worse off overall - is it worth leaving them.

Leaving such a big trade market with zero other trades in place etc etc could well leave a big hole in place, people could see us as a lame duck to exploit

All this “lets be brave etc etc” is it based on reality or dreams ?

Is there a chance of being hit by a bigger recession? Can anyone write that off

This could be the worse thing we as a nation could do, and some of us on here have a long working life ahead of us.
Click to expand...
Then maybe you have more to gain from our independence.

As i keep telling you, you are entitled to your opinions and concerns, just like I am. Using this argument suggesting I am older than you so have less to lose is a rather naive and poor way to debate. You know nothing about me, my family or responsibilities. I do not level this type of insulting behaviour at you and would respectively ask you to do the same.
 
Positive spin .. those with savings will get some interest ... 🤣
Negative spin ...it won’t be enough ... 🤪
 
SocketRocket said:
Please re-read my reply. I had to go out urgently before finishing it and saved it inadvertently
Click to expand...
😂😂
I preferred your first response. It seemed really civilised 😉

Anyway, I disagree with you. You are posting links to articles written by "Brexiteers" and using them to illustrate your point. In that way you are legitimising them and passing them on as likely scenarios.
You can't forward one biased side of the debate, then pooh pooh the other side as a "Remainer Conspiracy" without expecting to be pulled up on it.
 
Liverpoolphil said:
What if they are right ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46377309

What if Brexit does make us worse off overall - is it worth leaving them.

Leaving such a big trade market with zero other trades in place etc etc could well leave a big hole in place, people could see us as a lame duck to exploit

All this “lets be brave etc etc” is it based on reality or dreams ?

Is there a chance of being hit by a bigger recession? Can anyone write that off

This could be the worse thing we as a nation could do, and some of us on here have a long working life ahead of us.
Click to expand...

Couldn't it also be the best thing we, as a nation, could do?
 
Slime said:
Couldn't it also be the best thing we, as a nation, could do?
Click to expand...
Yes it could be - but then I’m not the one throwing around things like “remoaners” and scaremongering etc etc - seems some aren’t willing to accept things could go monumentally tits up. I’m scared for the future when a country leaves the biggest free market on the planet - that for me adds nothing positive right now
 
Liverpoolphil said:
Yes it could be - but then I’m not the one throwing around things like “remoaners” and scaremongering etc etc - seems some aren’t willing to accept things could go monumentally tits up. I’m scared for the future when a country leaves the biggest free market on the planet - that for me adds nothing positive right now
Click to expand...

Membership costs too much with too many strings attached... Has provided the platform/mechanisms to see too many UK jobs being spirited away...

Has allowed businesses to stop investing in 'team UK' which is why they love being in so much...
 
Last edited:
bluewolf said:
😂😂
I preferred your first response. It seemed really civilised 😉

Anyway, I disagree with you. You are posting links to articles written by "Brexiteers" and using them to illustrate your point. In that way you are legitimising them and passing them on as likely scenarios.
You can't forward one biased side of the debate, then pooh pooh the other side as a "Remainer Conspiracy" without expecting to be pulled up on it.
Click to expand...
Yes i can if the article is in line with my own thinking. I used them as they describe the way WTO can be a suitable way for us to trade, they also explain it better than I can. I disagree with the other side or 'pooh pooh' it as you suggest due to my fairly long term belief that the establishment is attempting to stitch up the brexit outcome. Surely this just stating an opinion. Maybe a few more should try it rather than using personal slights to pooh pooh someone else's view.
 
Liverpoolphil said:
Yes it could be - but then I’m not the one throwing around things like “remoaners” and scaremongering etc etc - seems some aren’t willing to accept things could go monumentally tits up. I’m scared for the future when a country leaves the biggest free market on the planet - that for me adds nothing positive right now
Click to expand...
Remoaner, thats not a nice thing to call someone.
 
SocketRocket said:
Yes i can if the article is in line with my own thinking. I used them as they describe the way WTO can be a suitable way for us to trade, they also explain it better than I can. I disagree with the other side or 'pooh pooh' it as you suggest due to my fairly long term belief that the establishment is attempting to stitch up the brexit outcome. Surely this just stating an opinion. Maybe a few more should try it rather than using personal slights to pooh pooh someone else's view.
Click to expand...
We'll agree to disagree then, because I think you're wrong and you mistakenly think you're right 😉
 
drdel said:
I know you like to be the oracle but there is such a thing as inflation so your arithmetic average of £10bn pa in 2033 is only worth somewhere north of £7.5bn in today's money, set against only moderate growth in the £3.5tn over the same period. It ain't worth bothering too much especially as the EU keeps raising its budget significantly higher than inflation so the rise in the UK's potential contribution could easily dwarf Hammond's number!!

In fact Hammond's paper is pretty devoid of stated assumptions on inflation.
Click to expand...

I'm unsure of either whether inflation is considered in the stated 150Bn, nor actually how that figure was derived (any ideas?0! My point was that it is actually quite a small value compared to the overall GDP. If, as you suggest, it doesn't consider inflation, then it is indeed, relatively smaller! And I agree that UK's membership fee would likely rise. It might even lose its Rebate, (something already pushed for by some countries)!

As usual, whoever has specified that value probably used the 'Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics' model, so more than the usual amount of salt should be taken with it!

Worth noting that the report does state that 'in all scenarios considered in this publication, the economy will continue to grow in the long run'!

What does seem clear is that 'No Deal' is more costly than any of the other models, but May's proposal wasn't one of them. However, as I stated in an earlier post.....Brexit is not about Financial Costs/Benefits; it's about Independence!
 
Switzerland currently enjoys a unique relationship with the EU.
It is a member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) but, unlike other EFTA members such as Norway, is not a member of the European Economic Area (EEA).
As such, unlike the other members of the EEA, it enjoys access to the EU's single market while being under no legal obligation to adopt new EU legislation.
It is outside the EU's customs union and so able to strike individual trade deals as it pleases.

The cost of membership is Freedom of Movement.

Remind what May's deal looks like....:poop:
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Tashyboy
Party holes at golf comps.
2
Replies
34
Views
1K
Pin-seeker
Pin-seeker
Don Barzini
Christmas 2025
14 15 16
Replies
319
Views
8K
kp17
kp17
Lucifer MorningStar
Best clubs of all time (Probably)
2 3
Replies
41
Views
2K
srixon 1
srixon 1
B
Ping 7 wood head shortage.
2
Replies
20
Views
2K
KenL
KenL
VVega
What age is your Seniors?
2
Replies
21
Views
1K
Arthur Wedge
Arthur Wedge
Top