Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Hacker Khan]

Hacker’s Back

Did they let you out of prison then? 👍😎

Naa, just took a break as I realised the futility and pointlessness of constantly having the same old arguments with the same old people on the same old subjects who quite clearly have no intention of changing their views. Then there's dealing with the the humourless sad individuals whose lives must be so empty that they seemingly get their only kicks from deliberately winding up people they have never met in real life on golf forums. But hey ho, seems I never learn, so I came back for more.

However it seems in my absence you can now get likes and awards. I was thrilled to see I got a 'Somebody likes me' award yesterday which is great. I mean, yes this type of thing can only exacerbate the worries around the increasing amount of mental health issues, as people base their own self worth on the number of friends or likes on social media. So they therefore get ever more desperate to gain social affirmation through this process, potentially sending them on a downward spiral of loss of self worth and even depression if it does not happen. But an awards and award, back of the net.

 

[ColchesterFC]

Naa, just took a break as I realised the futility and pointlessness of constantly having the same old arguments with the same old people on the same old subjects who quite clearly have no intention of changing their views. Then there's dealing with the the humourless sad individuals whose lives must be so empty that they seemingly get their only kicks from deliberately winding up people they have never met in real life on golf forums. But hey ho, seems I never learn, so I came back for more.

But it seems in my absence you can now get likes and awards. I was thrilled to see I got a 'Somebody likes me' award yesterday which is great. I mean, yes this type of thing can only exacerbate the worries around the increasing amount of mental health issues, as people base their own self worth on the number of friends or likes on social media. So they therefore get ever more desperate to gain social affirmation through this process, potentially sending them on a downward spiral of loss of self worth and even depression if it does not happen. But an awards and award, back of the net.

I only liked this post to try to help you increase your own feelings of self worth. (Insert your own smiley/thumbs up emoji as my kindle won't let me)

 

[Deleted member 16999]

I only liked this post to try to help you increase your own feelings of self worth. (Insert your own smiley/thumbs up emoji as my kindle won't let me)

And I liked your post so you could feel some of the warmth you’re trying to give Hacker.

 

[ColchesterFC]

And I liked your post so you could feel some of the warmth you’re trying to give Hacker.

Right back at you.

 

[MegaSteve]

If MP's are supposed to be representing the views of their constituents then I suggest there's quite a few that need to have a re-think....

 

[Hacker Khan]

And I liked your post so you could feel some of the warmth you’re trying to give Hacker.

Thanks both, your likes have my quenched my, at times, psychotic desire for affirmation and acceptance for today.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Herein lies the problem. The only absolute indicator of the views constituents is the result of the referendum, which as you say was before they/we had a clear picture of what would happen after a leave vote. Also muddying the water is the fact that some leave voters will support the agreement and others will oppose it as it's not proper Brexit. And that's without the remain voters that might be willing to reluctantly accept that we are going to leave and t this deal is the best we can hope for.

After the referendum we had a two way split in the country. After two years of negotiations we now have a four way split in the country.

Just out of interest is the 70% figure the remain vote at the referendum or from more recent opinion polls?

62% EU referendum 70% recent polls
It is England and Wales that is split four ways, my country is/was overwhelming in favour of remaining in the EU.

 

[MegaSteve]

Possibly one for random irritations....

But the total tool on the telly saying Ms May puts the UK first...
Well, not many gonna buy that...

 

[jp5]

A US president interfering in our politics... now that didn't go down too well last time!

 

[MegaSteve]

A US president interfering in our politics... now that didn't go down too well last time!

Barak poked his nose in after a request from Dave... Trump doesn't tend to wait for invites...

 

[Hacker Khan]

A US president interfering in our politics... now that didn't go down too well last time!

To be honest I mostly ignore anything he says as it is clear by now he will say anything, including out right lying, in order to play to his base of supporters back home. But I did see from the BBC website that '

• International Trade Secretary Liam Fox is visiting Israel to boost economic ties ahead of Brexit

Excellent, obviously we've found that dealing with the knife edge politics of Northern Ireland is a bit fraught with danger so it seems we have decided to go to a much more politically stable region to do business.

 

[jp5]

It will likely have the opposite effect to what he intended, as did Obama's comments, and expect more people will think it's a good deal for us if Trump thinks it isn't!

 

[Fade and Die]

62% EU referendum 70% recent polls
It is England and Wales that is split four ways, my country is/was overwhelming in favour of remaining in the EU.

Well you say that but more than a Million Scots voted to leave and Scotland had the lowest turnout of any region in the UK, the percentages seem large 62%/38% but they are skewed by the low numbers.

 

[Taz]

Pestons take on it all :

We've all been focussing on the crisis that would ensue if - as expected - the PM loses the meaningful vote on her Brexit deal ‪on 11 December‬.
But just for a moment think about the implications if she wins, because they too would be momentous.
To state the obvious, we'd be out of the EU on terms that are semi-blind - we wouldn't know our long-term destination. But we would be out.
And she, the PM, would rein supreme.
She would have crushed her opponents, who would have lost all hope of political advancement or favour.
And having delivered Brexit against the odds, she could be pretty confident in staying PM for as long as she wanted, perhaps well beyond the next election - and the election itself would be off the cards till 2022.
Just saying all this out loud demonstrates quite how unlikely it would be - especiaily after even her former human shield Michael Fallon has said how much he loathes her Brexit plan.
So let's revert to perhaps the more pertinent question of what happens if she loses the big vote.
Then, as I said on News at Ten, it comes down to who among the leaders of the two biggest parties is fastest to show proper leadership.
A display of decisive leadership will be hard for the PM, because she'll be under intense pressure to return to Brussels to ask EU leaders to amend the Withdrawal Agreement such that Northern Ireland's DUP would no longer be be able to complain that the so-called backstop drives a wedge between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
Such prevarication would undermine her authority, especially if the EU says no.
Even in the unlikely event the EU caves, the trick might fail - because there are plenty of MPs in her own party who like Fallon hate the idea of handing over £39bn in a divorce bill for such an uncertain long-term trading relationship with the EU.
And there is no chance of any change to that just-signed Political Declaration by the EU that is so indeterminate on the permanent relationship between the UK and EU.
So May could fail to secure her deal if it returned to the Commons for a second vote, whether or not the deal had been tweaked to reassure the DUP.
She would therefore face pressure from the Remainers in her cabinet, led by the chancellor Philip Hammond, the business secretary Greg Clarke and the work and pensions secretary Amber Rudd to move to the softest style of Brexit - the so-called Norway model enhanced perhaps by membership of the customs union.
The advantages of this approach is that it would deliver frictionless trade, which would render unnecessary any Northern Ireland backstop to keep open the border on the island of Ireland. It is also the kind of Brexit favoured by most big exporters and importers.
For Brexiter purists, Norway-plus’s defects are manifold - mainly that it would see the UK as an EU rule-taker forever and would allow only the most limited control on free movement of workers to the U.K.
So for Brexiter ultras, a planned no-deal Brexit, as opposed to an accidental chaotic one, would be preferable. But to avoid chaos, to ensure necessary infrastructure is on the border and a series of mini deals are agreed to avoid extreme shocks (such as airplanes being unable to land), the UK would probably have to stay either in the EU or in a state of “transition” (non-voting membership) for at least another year after 29 March 2019.
To state the blooming, bleedin’, blinkin’ obvious, these rival Brexits split cabinet and Tory Party down the middle.
Which is what provides Labour with its opportunity.
According to senior Labour sources, Corbyn is close to agreeing that shortly (days) after the loss of the meaningful vote by May, he would formally make his party the champion of another referendum or People’s Vote - on the basis that if there is no consensus in parliament on what comes next, the question has to go back to the people.
At this conjuncture, there might well be a clear parliamentary majority for such a referendum - with the choice between May’s deal (as the only negotiated deal) and remaining in the EU - if the Tory MPs who currently say they back a plebiscite stick to their guns.
Which is why, if May sees this coming (which presumably she must), she may try to head it off at the pass by saying shortly after losing the vote that she remains committed to Brexit and will in effect lead a government of national unity to capture the will of parliament on what kind of Brexit is sought by most MPs.
If Brexit it be for the PM, rather than referendum, that would probably be Norway-plus, if she wants to reflect the preference of parliament.
But for her to become deliverer of what many Tories would see as conversion of the UK into the ultimate vassal state would be potentially lethal for her party.
The Brexiter ultras would be incensed, and would certainly try to depose her, prior to conceivably quitting the party altogether if they were to fail.
Or to put it another way, there are just over two weeks to go before events that will be tumultuous, egregious, nation changing. I only wish I could tell you how this epic ends.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Well you say that but more than a Million Scots voted to leave and Scotland had the lowest turnout of any region in the UK, the percentages seem large 62%/38% but they are skewed by the low numbers.

In any form of political contest nearly a two thirds majority is regarded as massive.

Worth mentioning that the Scots First Minister has the whole hearted support of her parliament.
Only a handful of right wing Scots Tory MSP's are against her position on Brexit.
They have probably changed their position now with the EU taking back control of UK fishing.

 

[chrisd]

In any form of political contest nearly a two thirds majority is regarded as massive.

Worth mentioning that the Scots First Minister has the whole hearted support of her parliament.
Only a handful of right wing Scots Tory MSP's are against her position on Brexit.
They have probably changed their position now with the EU taking back control of UK fishing.

But of course it was an in/out UK vote and, who voted in what region, at what age, of what nationality etc etc is totally irrelevant

 

[Imurg]

62% EU referendum 70% recent polls
It is England and Wales that is split four ways, my country is/was overwhelming in favour of remaining in the EU.

Well, go ahead a stay then......
Oh, wait a minute...you've already voted against Independence....never mind.
I've always said it and I'll say it again...
The worst thing about the referendum was releasing the breakdown of regional voting.
It wasn't a regional vote and the regional voting habits irrelevant to the vote itself.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Just to clarify, if I am a supporter of Scottish Independence I would naturally be against most Westminster [British] politics.

Do you not find that it makes for one dimensional thinking wise ? Or is it that SNP happen to have policies that you completely agree with ?

I don't think I could ever think like that and think that one party supports most of my beliefs and never understood when people used to say my granddad was a labour, my dad was and so am I.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

But of course it was an in/out UK vote and, who voted in what region, at what age, of what nationality etc etc is totally irrelevant

Irrelevant...….Not to the voters of NI and Scotland...……....let's wait and see how that one pans out.

 

[chrisd]

Irrelevant...….Not to the voters of NI and Scotland...……....let's wait and see how that one pans out.

It really is irrelevant, it was a vote where the answer to one question determined the outcome, and the only issue was who's wishes were in the majority, where Mr or Mrs Voter lived was not played no part in matter