Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

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Sounding like all pretty much done and dusted...May's Deal Better than No Deal...and from what I am hearing the likelihood of May's WA actually getting through parliament is increasing day-on-day - though still more unlikely than likely.

And for the Political Declaration...setting out the basis for the future trade agreement to be determined during the 21 months transition period

"The future relationship will be based on a balance of rights and obligations, taking into account the principles of each party.

"This balance must ensure the autonomy of the union's decision-making and be consistent with the union's principles, in particular with respect to the integrity of the single market and the customs union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms.

"It must also ensure the sovereignty of the United Kingdom and the protection of its internal market, while respecting the result of the 2016 referendum including with regard to the development of its independent trade policy and the ending of free movement of people between the Union and the United Kingdom."

All good stuff...

They'll be predicting riots on the streets next...just what Johnson's WCs were for.
 
Sounding like all pretty much done and dusted...May's Deal Better than No Deal...and from what I am hearing the likelihood of May's WA actually getting through parliament is increasing day-on-day - though still more unlikely than likely.

And for the Political Declaration...setting out the basis for the future trade agreement to be determined during the 21 months transition period

"The future relationship will be based on a balance of rights and obligations, taking into account the principles of each party.

"This balance must ensure the autonomy of the union's decision-making and be consistent with the union's principles, in particular with respect to the integrity of the single market and the customs union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms.

"It must also ensure the sovereignty of the United Kingdom and the protection of its internal market, while respecting the result of the 2016 referendum including with regard to the development of its independent trade policy and the ending of free movement of people between the Union and the United Kingdom."

All good stuff...

They'll be predicting riots on the streets next...just what Johnson's WCs were for.

Is that the water cannons he bought for £350K [?] that were recently sold, unused, for £11k.
After Rudd's resurrection, does that make Johnson a lock on for next the chancellor.

Re free movement, I strongly believe that there are many Brexiteers who think that this is only a 'one way' deal and will not affect them.
 
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Sounding like all pretty much done and dusted...May's Deal Better than No Deal...and from what I am hearing the likelihood of May's WA actually getting through parliament is increasing day-on-day - though still more unlikely than likely.

And for the Political Declaration...setting out the basis for the future trade agreement to be determined during the 21 months transition period

"The future relationship will be based on a balance of rights and obligations, taking into account the principles of each party.

"This balance must ensure the autonomy of the union's decision-making and be consistent with the union's principles, in particular with respect to the integrity of the single market and the customs union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms.

"It must also ensure the sovereignty of the United Kingdom and the protection of its internal market, while respecting the result of the 2016 referendum including with regard to the development of its independent trade policy and the ending of free movement of people between the Union and the United Kingdom."

All good stuff...

They'll be predicting riots on the streets next...just what Johnson's WCs were for.
He's still sat on your shoulder then.
 
Surely if tariffs are imposed, Mini will find a way of making the crankshaft in one country.
Yes, but that will take time, so deal or no deal needs to be determined to kick off the sourcing. The thing is they will look across the whole car and determine their strategy.
There will always be components that will come from the continent but that could be managed. The issue lies in whether the UK supplier will hit the cost target.
 
Yes, but that will take time, so deal or no deal needs to be determined to kick off the sourcing.

Possibly, but in the long term the crankshaft will be made in one place which will actually save time and money.
In my opinion, the issue is people look for problems and when they find them, they stop looking.
If they kept looking they might find solutions
 
Yes, but that will take time, so deal or no deal needs to be determined to kick off the sourcing. The thing is they will look across the whole car and determine their strategy.
There will always be components that will come from the continent but that could be managed. The issue lies in whether the UK supplier will hit the cost target.
Of course they could, we are told that people in the UK are paid low wages such that they have to rely on food banks, many are supposedly working on the minimum wage and zero hours contracts. The CBI are bricking it in case they will lose access to unlimited numbers of low paid immigrants. In a hard nosed economy like the UK overhead cost should be rock bottom. There is always the backstop of a Corbyn government. What can go wrong?
 
Possibly, but in the long term the crankshaft will be made in one place which will actually save time and money.
In my opinion, the issue is people look for problems and when they find them, they stop looking.
If they kept looking they might find solutions
Appreciate the sentiment but years have past and the skills have migrated to more complex industries. It would be great to be back to our Victorian greatness where an engineer designs, the raw materials are worked and the finished item rolls out of the door. As a nation we did not plan for this day, we don’t have those people with those skills ready to go ... to have a vision you need a plan and the complex plan is broken down with milestones for achievable goals.
Brexit has none, it has an enthusiasm, a confused agenda, a lack of patience, and an end goal. Ultimately it needs better planning, agreed goals and it needs to engage and change people’s minds.
 
Appreciate the sentiment but years have past and the skills have migrated to more complex industries. It would be great to be back to our Victorian greatness where an engineer designs, the raw materials are worked and the finished item rolls out of the door. As a nation we did not plan for this day, we don’t have those people with those skills ready to go ... to have a vision you need a plan and the complex plan is broken down with milestones for achievable goals.
Brexit has none, it has an enthusiasm, a confused agenda, a lack of patience, and an end goal. Ultimately it needs better planning, agreed goals and it needs to engage and change people’s minds.
Victorian greatness? What you explain is exactly what happens up and down the country every day, parts are designed using CadCam and finite element design software, raw materials are worked on using modern flexible manufacturing systems and the component is either passed to the next process or out the door. We dont need people who turn handles on machines anymore, those skills have been replaced by manufacturing software and CNC machine tools. Drop into almost any trading estate around the country and you can see these processes in action.
 
Victorian greatness? What you explain is exactly what happens up and down the country every day, parts are designed using CadCam and finite element design software, raw materials are worked on using modern flexible manufacturing systems and the component is either passed to the next process or out the door. We dont need people who turn handles on machines anymore, those skills have been replaced by manufacturing software and CNC machine tools. Drop into almost any trading estate around the country and you can see these processes in action.
So why are we sourcing from all over the world if we do it here .... probably because we don’t do it to the volume, cost effectiveness, quality or skill level.
 
LEAVER: I want an omelette.

REMAINER: Right. It’s just we haven’t got any eggs.

LEAVER: Yes, we have. There they are. [HE POINTS AT A CAKE]

REMAINER: They’re in the cake.

LEAVER: Yes, get them out of the cake, please.

REMAINER: But we voted in 1974 to put them into a cake.

LEAVER: Yes, but that cake has got icing on it. Nobody said there was going to be icing on it.

REMAINER: Icing is good.

LEAVER: And there are raisins in it. I don’t like raisins. Nobody mentioned raisins. I demand another vote.

DAVID CAMERON ENTERS.

DAVID CAMERON: OK.

DAVID CAMERON SCARPERS.

LEAVER: Right, where’s my omelette?

REMAINER: I told you, the eggs are in the cake.

LEAVER: Well, get them out.

EU: It’s our cake.

JEREMY CORBYN: Yes, get them out now.

REMAINER: I have absolutely no idea how to get them out. Don’t you know how to get them out?

LEAVER: Yes! You just get them out and then you make an omelette.

REMAINER: But how?! Didn’t you give this any thought?

LEAVER: Saboteur! You’re talking eggs down. We could make omelettes before the eggs went into the cake, so there’s no reason why we can’t make them now.

THERESA MAY: It’s OK, I can do it.

REMAINER: How?

THERESA MAY: There was a vote to remove the eggs from the cake, and so the eggs will be removed from the cake.

REMAINER: Yeah, but…

LEAVER: Hang on, if we take the eggs out of the cake, does that mean we don’t have any cake? I didn’t say I didn’t want the cake, just the bits I don’t like.

EU: It’s our cake.

REMAINER: But you can’t take the eggs out of the cake and then still have a cake.

LEAVER: You can. I saw the latest Bake Off and you can definitely make cakes without eggs in them. It’s just that they’re horrible.

REMAINER: Fine. Take the eggs out. See what happens.

LEAVER: It’s not my responsibility to take the eggs out. Get on with it.

REMAINER: Why should I have to come up with some long-winded incredibly difficult chemical process to extract eggs that have bonded at the molecular level to the cake, while somehow still having the cake?

LEAVER: You lost, get over it.

THERESA MAY: By the way, I’ve started the clock on this.

REMAINER: So I assume you have a plan?

THERESA MAY: Actually, back in a bit. Just having another election.

REMAINER: Jeremy, are you going to sort this out?

JEREMY CORBYN: Yes. No. Maybe.

EU: It’s our cake.

LEAVER: Where’s my omelette? I voted for an omelette.

REMAINER: This is ridiculous. This is never going to work. We should have another vote, or at least stop what we’re doing until we know how to get the eggs out of the cake while keeping the bits of the cake that we all like.

LEAVER/MAY/CORBYN: WE HAD A VOTE. STOP SABOTAGING THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE. EGGSIT MEANS EGGSIT.

REMAINER: Fine, I’m moving to France. The cakes are nicer there.

LEAVER: You can’t. We’ve taken your freedom of movement.
 
LEAVER: I want an omelette.

REMAINER: Right. It’s just we haven’t got any eggs.

LEAVER: Yes, we have. There they are. [HE POINTS AT A CAKE]

REMAINER: They’re in the cake.

LEAVER: Yes, get them out of the cake, please.

REMAINER: But we voted in 1974 to put them into a cake.

LEAVER: Yes, but that cake has got icing on it. Nobody said there was going to be icing on it.

REMAINER: Icing is good.

LEAVER: And there are raisins in it. I don’t like raisins. Nobody mentioned raisins. I demand another vote.

DAVID CAMERON ENTERS.

DAVID CAMERON: OK.

DAVID CAMERON SCARPERS.

LEAVER: Right, where’s my omelette?

REMAINER: I told you, the eggs are in the cake.

LEAVER: Well, get them out.

EU: It’s our cake.

JEREMY CORBYN: Yes, get them out now.

REMAINER: I have absolutely no idea how to get them out. Don’t you know how to get them out?

LEAVER: Yes! You just get them out and then you make an omelette.

REMAINER: But how?! Didn’t you give this any thought?

LEAVER: Saboteur! You’re talking eggs down. We could make omelettes before the eggs went into the cake, so there’s no reason why we can’t make them now.

THERESA MAY: It’s OK, I can do it.

REMAINER: How?

THERESA MAY: There was a vote to remove the eggs from the cake, and so the eggs will be removed from the cake.

REMAINER: Yeah, but…

LEAVER: Hang on, if we take the eggs out of the cake, does that mean we don’t have any cake? I didn’t say I didn’t want the cake, just the bits I don’t like.

EU: It’s our cake.

REMAINER: But you can’t take the eggs out of the cake and then still have a cake.

LEAVER: You can. I saw the latest Bake Off and you can definitely make cakes without eggs in them. It’s just that they’re horrible.

REMAINER: Fine. Take the eggs out. See what happens.

LEAVER: It’s not my responsibility to take the eggs out. Get on with it.

REMAINER: Why should I have to come up with some long-winded incredibly difficult chemical process to extract eggs that have bonded at the molecular level to the cake, while somehow still having the cake?

LEAVER: You lost, get over it.

THERESA MAY: By the way, I’ve started the clock on this.

REMAINER: So I assume you have a plan?

THERESA MAY: Actually, back in a bit. Just having another election.

REMAINER: Jeremy, are you going to sort this out?

JEREMY CORBYN: Yes. No. Maybe.

EU: It’s our cake.

LEAVER: Where’s my omelette? I voted for an omelette.

REMAINER: This is ridiculous. This is never going to work. We should have another vote, or at least stop what we’re doing until we know how to get the eggs out of the cake while keeping the bits of the cake that we all like.

LEAVER/MAY/CORBYN: WE HAD A VOTE. STOP SABOTAGING THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE. EGGSIT MEANS EGGSIT.

REMAINER: Fine, I’m moving to France. The cakes are nicer there.

LEAVER: You can’t. We’ve taken your freedom of movement.



I hope you cut and pasted that because it really wasn’t worth the effort of typing it. 😴😴😴
 
Question:

Is TM completely in a delusional bubble or does she have an end game in her mind that bears no resemblence to the deal she is putting forward?

I ask this because MP's, Ministers behind the scences, political journalists etc have been saying since Chequers that this deal will not get through the HoC. Not even close. She refuses to listen and ploughs on, the inevitable defeat coming closer and closer. So come on then, smart people. Which of the above do you think it is? Delusional bubble or secret end game?
 
Question:

Is TM completely in a delusional bubble or does she have an end game in her mind that bears no resemblence to the deal she is putting forward?

I ask this because MP's, Ministers behind the scences, political journalists etc have been saying since Chequers that this deal will not get through the HoC. Not even close. She refuses to listen and ploughs on, the inevitable defeat coming closer and closer. So come on then, smart people. Which of the above do you think it is? Delusional bubble or secret end game?

I was one of the first folk to scoff/laugh at the deal and my initial estimate was it had a 0% chance of getting thru the HoC's. Having watched the events of the last week unfold, my revised estimate of the May deal getting thru the HoC's is now 50% i.e. I think she has a real chance of getting this deal thru. The Tory rebels got less than 30 letters to try and oust her via a leadership contest, and with a decent chunk of Labour back bench MP's unlikely to follow Corbyn's instruction to vote against it, she just might get it thru after all. It's gonna be very VERY tight and the wheels might still totally come off before we get to the HoC's vote, but I honestly believe she is NOT delusional, the deal has a real chance of making it IMO.
 
She tried to bribed the DUP with a £1.3,000,000,000.00 cash for votes bung.
They will now be voting against her alongside about 40 Tory rebels.

No chance whatsoever of getting it through, she is actually leading a minority Government right now.
Call and election and base it on in or out lines.
Guaranteed to be a win for the remain side and cancel the whole shambles.
 
Question:

Is TM completely in a delusional bubble or does she have an end game in her mind that bears no resemblence to the deal she is putting forward?

I ask this because MP's, Ministers behind the scences, political journalists etc have been saying since Chequers that this deal will not get through the HoC. Not even close. She refuses to listen and ploughs on, the inevitable defeat coming closer and closer. So come on then, smart people. Which of the above do you think it is? Delusional bubble or secret end game?

I think she's onto a winner. The maths, currently, sees the DUP voting against it. It sees 25+ Tory MP's voting against it. And it sees a number of the Labour Brexit MP's unhappy about it. The Labour Whip may be exercised, meaning virtually all of the Labour MP's follow the party line. It then doesn't go through and a second referendum is called. The Tories are then seen as true democrats, and is also absolved of any blame for the outcome either way. A number of polls show a move to Remain. Remain wins.

Or the rebel Tory MP's vote for the deal, not wanting to bring the government down. The DUP are bought out with another £1bn. And the deal goes through. Its Brexit in name only, or Remain-lite. After a few more years of Remain propaganda the UK rejoins the EU. Or after a few years without the UK's contributions and continued unrest from Southern Europe the EU offers the UK favourable terms to rejoin.
 
She tried to bribed the DUP with a £1.3,000,000,000.00 cash for votes bung.
They will now be voting against her alongside about 40 Tory rebels.

No chance whatsoever of getting it through, she is actually leading a minority Government right now.
Call and election and base it on in or out lines.
Guaranteed to be a win for the remain side
and cancel the whole shambles.

What part of the 'The votes have been cast and the result is that we leave the EU' do you not understand?
 
The most recent ex-Brexit secretary, having only just understood our geography as an island nation, is now admitting that staying in the EU is a better option that Mrs May's deal. It certainly has been quite the month of revelations for him.
 
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