Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[jp5]

20,000 as a survey sample size is very large, much more than for the usual polls, and is statistically very likely to be accurate.

The survey really has no importance, but it's wrong to write it off as inaccurate.

 

[Foxholer]

...Perhaps it was simpler, Sunderland is a strong labour working class area, referendum came in midst of a period of Cameron/Osbourbe brutal austerity. Maybe the folks of Sunderland just wanted to get rid of Cameron or give him a political 'doing' so voted leave? How else you you explain the change in Brexit views?

Seems to me that 'austerity' hasn't actually finished and any 'hatred' of Cameron/Osborne wouldn't be all that different to attitude to May!

But who knows. Maybe the sample really WAS too small or wasn't indicative of those that voted in 2016!

 

[Deleted member 18121]

Try comparing it to the 'independent' BBC during the Scottish referendum.

The BBC are not independent. They only claim to be.

 

[IanM]

I do have to laugh at all the pro leave bias claims about Channel 4 from leavers.

Try comparing it to the 'independent' BBC during the Scottish referendum.

I didnt see the programme.... but in keeping with the BBC, I understand the "panel" was three Remainers to one Leaver... as is QT every week. (and a Remain "chair") Maybe that's a coincidence! You'd think 2 and 2 from each side would be compulsory...but of course they are not even pretending to be impartial

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Started watching, lasted about 3 minutes before switching over, just couldn't endure the same old arguments and counter arguments. There are upsides and downsides to both leaving and remaining but you wouldn't know that I'm guessing from the show?




Perhaps it was simpler, Sunderland is a strong labour working class area, referendum came in midst of a period of Cameron/Osbourbe brutal austerity. Maybe the folks of Sunderland just wanted to get rid of Cameron or give him a political 'doing' so voted leave? How else you you explain the change in Brexit views?

Living in the NE I think the last paragraph is very true.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

20,000 as a survey sample size is very large, much more than for the usual polls, and is statistically very likely to be accurate.

The survey really has no importance, but it's wrong to write it off as inaccurate.

Unfortunately writing it off as irrelevant or inaccurate is just the modus operandi of many who voted to Leave and will not hear of any risk, issue or problem associated with leaving - no matter how firm the basis for any modelling, prediction or forecast that suggest all might not be great; no matter how tight the level of uncertainty around the predictions might be; no matter how accurate might be the actual measurements of the current situation used in the modelling.

It was good to hear David Gauke be quite clear last night on what a No Deal would mean - saying it would be very bad economically for the UK and indeed agreeing that there is no deal with the EU of any sort from which we will emerge better off in respect of our trade with and through the EU. And as firm as Barry Gardiner was on 'honouring the vote' (for the time being and unless...) he too was clear that we were going to be worse off - but that that is what the electorate voted for. We - the Great British public - voted to leave the EU with a full understanding that we would be worse off?

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Unfortunately writing it off as irrelevant is just the modus operandi of many who voted to Leave and will not hear of any risk, issue or problem associated with leaving - no matter how firm the basis for any modelling, prediction or forecast that suggest all might not be great.

it was good to hear David Gauke be quite clear last night on what a No Deal would mean - saying it would be very bad economically for the UK and indeed agreeing that there is no deal with the EU of any sort from which we will emerge better off in respect of our trade with and through the EU.

It is irrelevant though - it’s just a poll , the vote has happened and the result was given - any poll since is irrelevant , it’s just a poll - it’s not anything beyond that.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I didnt see the programme.... but in keeping with the BBC, I understand the "panel" was three Remainers to one Leaver... as is QT every week. (and a Remain "chair") Maybe that's a coincidence! You'd think 2 and 2 from each side would be compulsory...but of course they are not even pretending to be impartial

Farage in his desperation was trying to suggest that 3 Remain vs 1 leave 'panellist' somehow influenced the survey results. LOL.

And as KG-M pointed out - both Gauke and Gardiner are both now very much 'honour the vote'. Only Caroline Lucas was for a 'further vote' on the outcome of the negotiations. If the Tories had wanted they could have put up Brilliant Boris or Rees-Mogg - but they chose not to. So don't blame Ch4.

 

[Hobbit]

Unfortunately writing it off as irrelevant or inaccurate is just the modus operandi of many who voted to Leave and will not hear of any risk, issue or problem associated with leaving - no matter how firm the basis for any modelling, prediction or forecast that suggest all might not be great; no matter how tight the level of uncertainty around the predictions might be; no matter how accurate might be the actual measurements of the current situation used in the modelling.

It was good to hear David Gauke be quite clear last night on what a No Deal would mean - saying it would be very bad economically for the UK and indeed agreeing that there is no deal with the EU of any sort from which we will emerge better off in respect of our trade with and through the EU. And as firm as Barry Gardiner was on 'honouring the vote' (for the time being and unless...) he too was clear that we were going to be worse off - but that that is what the electorate voted for. We - the Great British public - voted to leave the EU with a full understanding that we would be worse off?

It also very interesting to hear the same concerns in both the German and French parliaments re a No Deal. And Spain's contingency plans for a No Deal...? They are doing nothing. Absolutely nothing. As far as Spain is concerned they will sign their own reciprocal agreements.

I wonder if the EU Commission is really representing each government of the EU27, or just upholding its own principle whatever the cost?

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

It is irrelevant though - it’s just a poll , the vote has happened and the result was given - any poll since is irrelevant , it’s just a poll - it’s not anything beyond that.

It is an indication of where public opinion currently sits. And that is of value. If a similar survey in say 3 months time were to show 60/40 against leaving, do we bash on regardless of the evidence that the public might have changed it's mind - changed it's mind having become more educated in, and understanding of, what Leaving the EU would actually mean and the impact Leaving would likely have on their lives?

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

It also very interesting to hear the same concerns in both the German and French parliaments re a No Deal. And Spain's contingency plans for a No Deal...? They are doing nothing. Absolutely nothing. As far as Spain is concerned they will sign their own reciprocal agreements.

I wonder if the EU Commission is really representing each government of the EU27, or just upholding its own principle whatever the cost?

The EU negotiators are upholding the EU's rules - as the advisor to the EU negotiators made clear last night. The EU27 countries have signed up to the rules - they might expect the negotiators to hold the line on the rules they have signed up to.

 

[Deleted member 15344]

It is an indication of where public opinion currently sits. And that is of value. If a similar survey in say 3 months time were to show 60/40 against leaving, do we bash on regardless of the evidence that the public might have changed it's mind - changed it's mind having become more educated in, and understanding of, what Leaving the EU would actually mean and the impact Leaving would likely have on their lives?

If , might , likely , ?!

All unknowns- how long do we keep going ? You could have a Poll every week and it can swing one way or the other

Just before the actual vote polls were suggesting a landslide victory for remain yet the vote was to leave so the poll was incorrect - the important “poll” was the actual vote which meant we leave the EU - simple as that , it’s now up to the polticians to work out how best to do that

And I’m someone who doesn’t want to leave the EU so you can’t point a label at me - the poll is irrelevant just like any poll that happens now

 

[Hobbit]

The EU negotiators are upholding the EU's rules - as the advisor to the EU negotiators made clear last night. The EU27 countries have signed up to the rules - they might expect the negotiators to hold the line on the rules they have signed up to.

All well and good Hugh but that ignores pretty much everything in my post. The 2 main players are having a torrid time in their own parliaments over this, and several countries, not just Spain, have said they will sign their own agreements.

 

[Dando]

It is an indication of where public opinion currently sits. And that is of value. If a similar survey in say 3 months time were to show 60/40 against leaving, do we bash on regardless of the evidence that the public might have changed it's mind - changed it's mind having become more educated in, and understanding of, what Leaving the EU would actually mean and the impact Leaving would likely have on their lives?

yes we do carry on and leave as that's what was voted for at the time the vote was held.

Its tough if the public have changed their minds and I am sure there are some remainers who now wished they voted to leave but I guess you will ignore that

 

[Old Skier]

As SILH is so keen on polls being used as guiding lights I presume he would be happy with bringing back capital punishment.

Or are we only looking at selective polls.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

All well and good Hugh but that ignores pretty much everything in my post. The 2 main players are having a torrid time in their own parliaments over this, and several countries, not just Spain, have said they will sign their own agreements.

which is something that the EU will just have to deal with

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

As SILH is so keen on polls being used as guiding lights I presume he would be happy with bringing back capital punishment.

Or are we only looking at selective polls.

Leaving the EU has got nothing to do with death penalty. We should not have had a referendum on such a hugely difficult and contentious subject as leaving or remaining in EU. But we are where we are with that - we've gone down the referendum route and therefore the ongoing opinion of the UK electorate on that has direct relevance.

We should not have a referendum on the death penalty.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

meanwhile the backstop - what any deal May have cobbled together will fall on.

So the little boy who stuck his finger in the dam is waiting until someone comes along with an idea how to fix it and fixes it. Will he have said that he'd keep his finger in the dam until school-time the next day and then he'll pull his finger out? I think not - not unless there was someone else about who could immediately stick his finger in the hole - until someone comes along with an idea how to fix it and fixes it. And so it would go on.

Yet that is in essence what our government expects the EU to sign up to. The UK will stay in a/the customs union with the EU - not until a solution comes along and the issue is fixed - but until some arbitrary date when the UK will walk away from the Customs Union. And if no solution has been arrived at, and a fix is not in place, at that point in time - then what? What?

 

[Old Skier]

Leaving the EU has got nothing to do with death penalty. We should not have had a referendum on such a hugely difficult and contentious subject as leaving or remaining in EU. But we are where we are with that - we've gone down the referendum route and therefore the ongoing opinion of the UK electorate on that has direct relevance.

We should not have a referendum on the death penalty.

Nobody asked for one, however the last poll on capital punishment suggested that it should be bought back. You suggested that your swayed by polls and action should be taken on them.

 

[bluewolf]

As SILH is so keen on polls being used as guiding lights I presume he would be happy with bringing back capital punishment.

Or are we only looking at selective polls.

Interesting question. Can you give me the link to the poll in question. I genuinely can't find it 👍