Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

No deal is a deal. It means that trading will occur under WTO, not a cosy cuddly deal. All the rubbish about there'll be no food/medicine etc is just Project Fear, as trading will still occur albeit under different rules, including tariffs.

I can't believe that people are gullible enough to believe the rubbish being put out.

Bri - You are usually good at actually trying to explain things (rather than just dismiss them) so can you explain why it is a red herring to raise issues in respect of the way MRAs work with WTO rules. Because what I am hearing is that on day #1 of leaving without a trade deal we cannot just 'revert' to trading under WTO rules and expect frictionless trade - for that we have to have MRAs in place with any country we are trading with under WTO rules. And these MRAs do not happen overnight.

 

[SocketRocket]

Lord Owen has just made a very good point on the way MPs are acting on Brexit.

"I think Parliament has let down the country, Parliamentarians are a miserable lot, frankly. I think they were gripped by a religion and they can’t stop believing in it. And they have really managed to convince themselves that they are entitled in a strange way to thwart Brexit. They forget that they voted for the referendum, over 500 of them. "

 

[Hobbit]

Bri - You are usually good at actually trying to explain things (rather than just dismiss them) so can you explain why it is a red herring to raise issues in respect of the way MRAs work with WTO rules. Because what I am hearing is that on day #1 of leaving without a trade deal we cannot just 'revert' to trading under WTO rules and expect frictionless trade - for that we have to have MRAs in place with any country we are trading with under WTO rules. And these MRAs do not happen overnight.

There won't be frictionless trade. Trade will be under WTO rules, apart from where the EU stipulate quotas already in place. This is actually a tightrope for the EU because under WTO rules it is illegal to trade with one country under WTO and not have the same tariffs/quotas with another country - and the EU have been fined many times by WTO for this very thing.

Don't get confused by who trades with who. It isn't the individual countries that trade, its the companies and businesses that do the trading. And this is where it becomes complicated again. Legally binding contracts are in place, some of which are multi-year deals, between companies. Those contracts will include pricing structures, albeit the tariffs fall outside of those structures. The companies on both sides of the Channel will have done the deals/budgets around their respective costings.

MRA's; some countries/trading blocs insist on conformity, and the EU is one of those trading blocs that insists on any product entering the EU conforming to EU regs, the USA is another that insists on conformity. The EU already exports to the USA, and does conform to FDA reg, not MRA's.

But, as it patently obvious, the UK already manufactures and grows all its produce that goes to the EU to EU regs. And what is also obvious is that it would be costly to change those processes for a multitude of reasons. Come Brexit day those products can no longer be CE marked but they will satisfy the requirements/regs to be able to be exported to the EU. What the UK manufacturers need to do is get the EU to accept that on D-Day the products will conform because they are already being manufactured to the CE regs. Its a box ticking exercise but I expect the EU to be awkward about it.

The divergence will come later when either the EU or the UK changes its regs, and that's when the issue of MRA's will arise - but don't forget, its the manufacturers in the UK that will decide if they want to export to the EU, and will then have to conform to EU regs. Many manufacturers already export to different markets with different regs, and without MRA's in place. They build to that countries regs, e.g. to the USA.

Am I dismissing the scaremongering? If the EU want to be awkward to the nth degree there will be issues but I just can't see them doing that. They'll make a stand on some issues to prove a point but most aspects of trade will go through ok.

 

[IanM]

Who actually thought those in power would listen to a Referendum?

No vote against the EU has ever stood. Why would this be any different?

 

[Fade and Die]

Before someome spreads more useless links:

Planning for no-deal Brexit

A number of outlets, including the Daily Express, Daily Mail, Daily Mirror, Daily Star, Telegraph and Daily Record follow up on the Sunday Times story on supposed ‘no-deal’ preparations, including the potential for the Army to help deliver supplies.

An MOD spokesperson said:

We have received no formal request from other Government departments to assist in their contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit.

All this tripe about using the army for food supplies is scare-mongering of the highest order. The government don't want Brexit anymore than David Lammy......this is preparing the public for a complete u-turn on it.

Just watch.

The utter guff coming out of Westminster in trying to scare the bejesus out of the public is truly hilarious.

 

[drdel]

There won't be frictionless trade. Trade will be under WTO rules, apart from where the EU stipulate quotas already in place. This is actually a tightrope for the EU because under WTO rules it is illegal to trade with one country under WTO and not have the same tariffs/quotas with another country - and the EU have been fined many times by WTO for this very thing.

Don't get confused by who trades with who. It isn't the individual countries that trade, its the companies and businesses that do the trading. And this is where it becomes complicated again. Legally binding contracts are in place, some of which are multi-year deals, between companies. Those contracts will include pricing structures, albeit the tariffs fall outside of those structures. The companies on both sides of the Channel will have done the deals/budgets around their respective costings.

MRA's; some countries/trading blocs insist on conformity, and the EU is one of those trading blocs that insists on any product entering the EU conforming to EU regs, the USA is another that insists on conformity. The EU already exports to the USA, and does conform to FDA reg, not MRA's.

But, as it patently obvious, the UK already manufactures and grows all its produce that goes to the EU to EU regs. And what is also obvious is that it would be costly to change those processes for a multitude of reasons. Come Brexit day those products can no longer be CE marked but they will satisfy the requirements/regs to be able to be exported to the EU. What the UK manufacturers need to do is get the EU to accept that on D-Day the products will conform because they are already being manufactured to the CE regs. Its a box ticking exercise but I expect the EU to be awkward about it.

The divergence will come later when either the EU or the UK changes its regs, and that's when the issue of MRA's will arise - but don't forget, its the manufacturers in the UK that will decide if they want to export to the EU, and will then have to conform to EU regs. Many manufacturers already export to different markets with different regs, and without MRA's in place. They build to that countries regs, e.g. to the USA.

Am I dismissing the scaremongering? If the EU want to be awkward to the nth degree there will be issues but I just can't see them doing that. They'll make a stand on some issues to prove a point but most aspects of trade will go through ok.

Good grief, you don't want to start posting common business sense on here - it'll never trump the opinionated waffle of doom.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

There were lots of empty spaces on the supermarket shelves this afternoon.
No Werthers Originals or lactose free skimmed milk in stock, quite worrying.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

The utter guff coming out of Westminster in trying to scare the bejesus out of the public is truly hilarious.

Not up to 2014 Scotland levels yet though.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Good grief, you don't want to start posting common business sense on here - it'll never trump the opinionated waffle of doom.

Well is it not a good thing that I asked...as I know I'll get a decent and reasoned response to my questions, concerns and misunderstandings. Always a breath of fresh air compared with the usual trite dismissals I get from too many.

I must now go away and try to understand what it all means.

And I bet that there are not that many of the electorate who actually understand much - or indeed any - of this sort of stuff - because unlike all the smart businessmen on here - not all of the electorate have such insightful understanding into the ways of commerce and business and they were not provided with it by the Leave campaigns (the Remain campaign could have tried better but we know that that would all have been lumped under Project Fear)

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Leaked Dover council memo states 13 mile M20 Brexit lorry park could last for many years.

The incoming food shortage info is based on the lack of storage space in supermarkets using just in time [straight off the lorry into the store] systems.

The outgoing delays to UK fresh produce into EU countries will also be seriously affected, especially areas furthest from South of England ports.

 

[Foxholer]

Good grief, you don't want to start posting common business sense on here - it'll never trump the opinionated waffle of doom.

Well, 82% of it is common business sense...

Oh hang on a minute! I may have just picked that number out of thin air...It's probably complete twaddle (or at least 82% twaddle)!

You don't seem to have answered my question in the 'May not up to it' thread! I'd be grateful if you did! Even just how that figure came about!

Purely in the interests of getting the facts right of course!

 

[Foxholer]

Leaked Dover council memo states 13 mile M20 Brexit lorry park could last for many years.

The incoming food shortage info is based on the lack of storage space in supermarkets using just in time [straight off the lorry into the store] systems.

The outgoing delays to UK fresh produce into EU countries will also be seriously affected, especially areas furthest from South of England ports.

Doon! Try to get your facts straight please!

It's not a '13 mile Brexit Lorry Park'! It's the "'13 Mile Lorry Park on the M20' that could last many years after Brexit!" A completely different concept from the twaddle you continue to peddle!

It's Ok though. Scotland's finest product has its own 'preservative' built in! And I'm not meaning Haggis!

 

[spongebob59]

It's like that anyway when ever the French decide to strike

 

[SocketRocket]

Leaked Dover council memo states 13 mile M20 Brexit lorry park could last for many years.

The incoming food shortage info is based on the lack of storage space in supermarkets using just in time [straight off the lorry into the store] systems.

The outgoing delays to UK fresh produce into EU countries will also be seriously affected, especially areas furthest from South of England ports.

Assuming the UK open our ports to eu imports but France decides to slow down UK trucks then will it not be Eu countries that face shortages.

 

[Foxholer]

Assuming the UK open our ports to eu imports but France decides to slow down UK trucks then will it not be Eu countries that face shortages.

They'll simply opt to acquire fresh products from other EU countries - after all, there'll be no duty payable/delays for those transactions, unlike products from UK.

It is, of course, precisely this sort of scenario - and ways to 'solve' it - that is under negotiation! Oh and France will only be applying the EU's orders! Same will happen at all other entry points for UK goods into Europe, as it does now!

 

[IanM]

Won't it be funny when the French farmers riot over loss of earnings.... but maybe the EU will offer them cash to behave!

 

[Deleted member 18121]

Doon! Try to get your facts straight please!

It's not a '13 mile Brexit Lorry Park'! It's the "'13 Mile Lorry Park on the M20' that could last many years after Brexit!" A completely different concept from the twaddle you continue to peddle!

Thats how Sky are reporting it "13-mile M20 Brexit lorry park to last 'many years'

 

[Foxholer]

Thats how Sky are reporting it "13-mile M20 Brexit lorry park to last 'many years'

No it's bleeding not!!!!!

Can't you read? Has Doon hijacked your id?

Here's the headline! '13-mile lorry park may last 'many years' after Brexit, impact reports reveal'

NOT 'Brexit Lorry park'!!!!! 'Lorry Park........Brexit'

Select the link and you will (at least should!) see the difference!

Jeez!

Completely as I stated!!!

 

[Deleted member 18121]

No it's bleeding not!!!!!

Can't you read? Has Doon hijacked your id?

Here's the headline! '13-mile lorry park may last 'many years' after Brexit, impact reports reveal'

NOT 'Brexit Lorry park'!!!!! 'Lorry Park........Brexit'

Select the link and you will (at least should!) see the difference!

Jeez!

Completely as I stated!!!

No, it's as I stated....go to the Sky news home page and read the headline link to the story. I was simply copying and pasting the headline.

I'll accept my apology via PM if you dont want to do it in public.... and next time dont be rude to me, I wasn't to you.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

No it's bleeding not!!!!!

Can't you read? Has Doon hijacked your id?

Here's the headline! '13-mile lorry park may last 'many years' after Brexit, impact reports reveal'

NOT 'Brexit Lorry park'!!!!! 'Lorry Park........Brexit'

Select the link and you will (at least should!) see the difference!

Jeez!

Completely as I stated!!!

Whatever - Project Fear or Fear Project - the truth is not what you read or see it is what Leavers tell you will be...unsubstantiated though their beliefs may be. And beliefs is all that they are - the main belief being that if something is said enough times then it will come to pass.

Witness Marcus Fysh MP on Newsnight last night - utterly embarrassing, useless and stumbling performance, completely failing to answer in any substantive way whatsoever concerns put by Emily Maitlis about fresh food imports (as the might affect the fresh sandwich industry etc) post a No Deal, and resorting to 'it's just nonsense being spouted to thwart the will of the British People' . Because it seems that that is all he had.

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1024207148014870529

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1024050135469240320

I think Mr Gregsbury from Dickens' Nicholas Nickleby would describe Fysh as a 'gammon' in that Fysh is a large, self-satisfied, middle aged man who professes an extreme patriotism in large part to disguise his essential selfishness and corruption.

Could be a description of a number of MPs.