PCC algorithm changin

[DickInShorts]

I see National Club Golfer are reporting that the PCC calculation is changing from today and will result in a 5% increase in changes.

They say that if it occurred 10% of the time it will now happen 15%.

Any thoughts?

 

[D-S]

In the last year we have had 18 occurrences of PCC changes and 305 times when there has been no change.
So according to this it would now change 27 times and 298 not change. Having checked a few other local clubs this amount of occurrences seems pretty typical. It will therefore make a small but not insignificant difference.
Unfortunately I do not have the number of CSS changes in a given period so I cannot compare versus UHS.

 

[rulefan]

This was reported here some days ago

https://forums.golfmonthly.com/threads/pcc-review.112709/page-3

Post #48

 

[Steven Rules]

Any thoughts?

No. None whatsoever.

 

[Colin L]

At my age, I increasingly don’t do thoughts.

 

[Backsticks]

I have played 25 competitions so far this year. 17 had pcc of zero. 8 had plus pcc, spread of 1s,2s,3s.
So a 5% change most likely wouldnt have added another one. Or if one was on the margin, possibly would add one more.
So no great consequence on handicaps that I can see.

 

[RRidges]

I see National Club Golfer are reporting that the PCC calculation is changing from today and will result in a 5% increase in changes.

They say that if it occurred 10% of the time it will now happen 15%.

Any thoughts?

Yep.
That's a 50% increase in changes!
And correlates to the numbers I saw in the original PCC thread.

 

[RRidges]

Unfortunately I do not have the number of CSS changes in a given period so I cannot compare versus UHS.

Comparing it against UHS is not appropriate, as the entire basis of the adjustment is different. Though the basis for the adjustment is the same - a tweak to allow for apparent conditions of the day.

 

[doublebogey7]

I have played 25 competitions so far this year. 17 had pcc of zero. 8 had plus pcc, spread of 1s,2s,3s.
So a 5% change most likely wouldnt have added another one. Or if one was on the margin, possibly would add one more.
So no great consequences on handicaps that I can see.

The increase is from 10% of rounds to 15%, a 50% increase in the number of PPC rounds.

 

[D-S]

Comparing it against UHS is not appropriate, as the entire basis of the adjustment is different. Though the basis for the adjustment is the same - a tweak to allow for apparent conditions of the day.

However, the criticism of the PCC and, perhaps the reasoning behind the change, was the perceived notion that it changed less under WHS than UHS so the comparison would be interesting.

 

[RRidges]

However, the criticism of the PCC and, perhaps the reasoning behind the change, was the perceived notion that it changed less under WHS than UHS so the comparison would be interesting.

I'm pretty certain it did. Whether that was the correct amount is a different question.

 

[Voyager EMH]

I've returned 26 competitive rounds so far this year. Only the first one on 9th April had a PCC and that was +1.

3.85% occurrences

If this rate is going up to 8.85%, then I might see 2 occurrences of a PCC in my next 26 scores. BIG DEAL.

 

[RRidges]

I've returned 26 competitive rounds so far this year. Only the first one on 9th April had a PCC and that was +1.

3.85% occurrences

If this rate is going up to 8.85%, then I might see 2 occurrences of a PCC in my next 26 scores. BIG DEAL.

Another complete arithmetic misunderstanding!
Trigger values notwithstanding, if a PCC is applied at equivalent rate the expected rate would be about 5.75%, so 1, 2 or maybe 3 of the next 26.
FWIW. Do you avoid comps where bad weather is forecast? You comp-PCC %age is 4%, which is less than half of the declared rate.

 

[D-S]

Another complete arithmetic misunderstanding!
Trigger values notwithstanding, if a PCC is applied at equivalent rate the expected rate would be about 5.75%, so 1, 2 or maybe 3 of the next 26.
FWIW. Do you avoid comps where bad weather is forecast? You comp-PCC %age is 4%, which is less than half of the declared rate.

The PCC is, as I am sure you know, not triggered by weather but by expected performance- not easy to judge when a greater proportion of players are going to play significantly better or worse than the mystery algorithm believes.

 

[RRidges]

The PCC is, as I am sure you know, not triggered by weather but by expected performance- not easy to judge when a greater proportion of players are going to play significantly better or worse than the mystery algorithm believes.

Agreed, not always weather - e.g. multiple evil pin positions could also cause it. Lazy of me but weather is the normal cause.

 

[DickInShorts]

One difference from UHS to WHS is that there used to be Home and Away CSS for Opens - now there’s just one PCC for all scores.
At a recent seniors open at my club the PCC was 2 due to higher scoring by visitors than would be the case for home players - some a benefit to home players which they wouldn’t have got under UHS

 

[Backsticks]

The increase is from 10% of rounds to 15%, a 50% increase in the number of PPC rounds.

Wow, OK, my mistake. That would take me up to half of rounds having a PCC !!! A few days were windy, and I expected it to move as it did. But half of rounds having a PCC doesnt sound right at all.

As discussed in other threads, some clubs seem to have a lot of trouble with lots of very big winning scores Which seems to be a problem in itself, but is that also spoiling the PCC ?
Our scores for wins, and handicaps in general are the same as before WHS. And 30% of rounds having a correction by PCC is similar I think to what we eould have had in CSS days. So the system is working for us.
This change might now harm something that is not a problem for us, and presumably plenty of other clubs.
The ones with scores of net 60 and 48 stableford, sound like the problem. Of course PCC wont adjust in that case . But that isnt PCCs problem. That is something else.

 

[DickInShorts]

8 of the 28 rounds showing on my handicap record on the Scottish Golf App have a PCC adjustment- 7 up and one reduction.
This covers the period from June 3rd to yesterday - during which period we had some windy weather as well as lots of dry sunny calm days

 

[D-S]

Wow, OK, my mistake. That would take me up to half of rounds having a PCC !!! A few days were windy, and I expected it to move as it did. But half of rounds having a PCC doesnt sound right at all.

As discussed in other threads, some clubs seem to have a lot of trouble with lots of very big winning scores Which seems to be a problem in itself, but is that also spoiling the PCC ?
Our scores for wins, and handicaps in general are the same as before WHS. And 30% of rounds having a correction by PCC is similar I think to what we eould have had in CSS days. So the system is working for us.
This change might now harm something that is not a problem for us, and presumably plenty of other clubs.
The ones with scores of net 60 and 48 stableford, sound like the problem. Of course PCC wont adjust in that case . But that isnt PCCs problem. That is something else.

About a third of your rounds having a PCC adjustment appears unnaturally high. As per post #2 in this thread, checking a year‘s worth of submissions from a few clubs 5-10% of the time seems most likely in Gloucestershire at least.

 

[Backsticks]

Dicks seem similar to mine. So not a one off.
It may not have been the goal, but 30% feels about right, but I wasnt judging closely. Normally wind is what moves it, and you can guess even when playing that it will apply.