Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

Backache

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i have not come across him, since i dont do deniers.. i responded to my friend who sent it to me.. and he came back with this..

"I heard a lengthy podcast interview of this guy on the delingpole show a few weeks ago. While the forum itself is usually looney, this guy's arguments had 2 important queries...he questioned the assumption of the baseline immune number being 0 and the absence of type 2 error metrics (false +ves) being published as official numbers. I checked a bit and found it hard to refute either. ( not saying that that makes him right ...only that I couldn't find counters to it even after much searching ). Also his credentials are quite relevant and he speaks very clearly ...not a redneck rant type dude....he certainly is not a covid denier...so I guess I am still unclear on whether to write him off or not (especially with 2nd n 3rd waves in the UK )"
He is one of these people who have a background in Science but is speaking outside his area of expertise. His arguments sound superficially plausible until they are examined .
As far as I can tell he has no background in diagnostics infectious diseases or epidemiology.
As far as the possibility of false positives are concerned the absolute number cannot be known because there is not another gold standard to test by.
The Pillar one testing has to have a false positive rate of less than 0.04% as these are the labs that did the ONS surveys that had positive rates of 0.04% in the summer. The Pillar 2 may be a little higher, it also slightly depends on what you call a false positive. If the presence of viral RNA that may indicate recent infection but is not currently infectious is considered false the false positive rate may be a little higher but these cases may be important for contact tracing.. A cycle threshold of under 30-35 is considered diagnostic of infectious disease in most labs below this, it may indicate viral RNA that is not currently infectious but this is not certain.
He has I believe also cast doubt on the use of antibody studies to indicate previous infection. This has been studied quite a lot and most longitudinal studies indicate a high level though not 100% seroconversion (which would hold true for most viruses) and is well understood by epidemiologists studying the spread.
AS far as background immunity not being 0 I take it he means there may be some resistance within the population. There has been research done which indicates there is some resistance to coronaviruses from infection by previous coronaviruses, whenever I have heard any speakers on this subject including Shane Crotty who was one of the first to identify it they believe it is probable that this is part of the heterogeneity of the clinical course rather than reflecting immunity to infection and would not contribute to herd immunity or imply that we are nearly through the epidemic.
 

SocketRocket

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China death rates are low partly because there is such a massive population across a large area. Some areas have not been too badly involved but others have got hammered, but then put into an overall one country number, looks low. It is also fair to say that when issues arose, the local authorities there clamp down in a way that would make Brits rather unhappy.
My Nephew is an English Teacher in China. During lockdown he was allowed to go outside for an hour every day at an allocated time.
 

SwingsitlikeHogan

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The alcohol thing in tiers 1 & 2 is that it must be table service (and in tier 2, only with a meal). So whilst its not actually banned at indoor events, for most venues its not a practical proposition.
Ah - that'll be it. Live music events with no booze!? Well I suppose so...no reason why not. Issue for the venues is that it is their margin on liquid refreshments that makes the events viable.
 

SocketRocket

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We are in Tier two although the infection rates in the area are below 100 per 100K I can see how they've decided to clamp down on regions.

Looking at the Tier two levels I can see the rules clearly with Pubs and Restaurants but can't find any clear rule regarding Coffee shops.

Asking for the Boss.
 

backwoodsman

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We are in Tier two although the infection rates in the area are below 100 per 100K I can see how they've decided to clamp down on regions.

Looking at the Tier two levels I can see the rules clearly with Pubs and Restaurants but can't find any clear rule regarding Coffee shops.

Asking for the Boss.
In tier 2 you can't socialise indoors with anyone except those in your household/bubble. The "table service only" in tier 2 only applies to alcohol - so if coffee shops don't serve alcohol, they dont have to be table service only. Likewise the "with substantial meal" requirement again only applies to alcohol. So coffee shops you can presumably just have a coffee & not eat. Its all there in the government info on the Gov.uk site
 

SocketRocket

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In tier 2 you can't socialise indoors with anyone except those in your household/bubble. The "table service only" in tier 2 only applies to alcohol - so if coffee shops don't serve alcohol, they dont have to be table service only. Likewise the "with substantial meal" requirement again only applies to alcohol. So coffee shops you can presumably just have a coffee & not eat. Its all there in the government info on the Gov.uk site
I don't think it's that clear. Logically how can eating a meal with a pint indoors be any safer than drinking a pint indoors or drinking a coffee indoors. I've read all the GOV guidelines but can't se where it clearly explains about cafes or coffee shops.
 

ExRabbit

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I don't think it's that clear. Logically how can eating a meal with a pint indoors be any safer than drinking a pint indoors or drinking a coffee indoors. I've read all the GOV guidelines but can't se where it clearly explains about cafes or coffee shops.

Because if you can drink pints indoors without eating, you might carry on drinking and get drunk, loose your social inhibitions and stop keeping a safe distance etc.
 
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Got on the scales last night, trousers getting a bit tight, for the first time in a while. Yeek put on about a stone of blubber.:eek: Anyone else put on loads ?

Not enough golf/activity or stuff to keep the body/mind active just work, eating and laying around bored. Got to do something about it.

Just held a press conference with the wife and we are going to be following the science, so locked down the sweet and biscuit cupboard.;)
 

Swinglowandslow

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I don't think it's that clear. Logically how can eating a meal with a pint indoors be any safer than drinking a pint indoors or drinking a coffee indoors. I've read all the GOV guidelines but can't se where it clearly explains about cafes or coffee shops.

Coffee shops and cafes come into it by being outside the definition of selling alcohol. To sell alcohol you have to provide a substantial meal with it.
This is to deter the people who wander down to the pub just for a pint etc and who don't eat there.
You and your fellow householder can go/meet indoors and in a cafe ,pub or hospitality venue you can drink coffee, tea, etc . If you want alcohol then you have to have a meal with it
You cannot do any of those things or any other form of socialising indoors with anyone else other than someone who is part of your household.

Considering that the main way this virus is spreading is indoors through the aerosol method, then I personally see it as risky ( being polite) to go to a cafe, pub, etc.,
It still doesn't seem to have been grasped by most people that SD ( 2 metres etc) is irrelevant indoors without excellent and not usual ventilation. I.e.
All the windows open.....
 

SwingsitlikeHogan

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We are trying to work out if we can visit my MiL before the Christmas 'break' - she is in a Tier 3 area - we are Tier 2.

We think we can, as my wife's brother is effectively my MiLs carer - and I believe we can visit to provide him with respite. Another reason why we would be going is that her brother needs help to do everything they need done in advance of the Christmas 'break'.

And as we are visiting to provide support to my MiL and respite for him - we think we can stay over...(it's a long return journey in a day) but we are not clear on that.

We think...
 

GreiginFife

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We are trying to work out if we can visit my MiL before the Christmas 'break' - she is in a Tier 3 area - we are Tier 2.

We think we can, as my wife's brother is effectively my MiLs carer - and I believe we can visit to provide him with respite. Another reason why we would be going is that her brother needs help to do everything they need done in advance of the Christmas 'break'.

And as we are visiting to provide support to my MiL and respite for him - we think we can stay over...(it's a long return journey in a day) but we are not clear on that.

We think...

Why do you insist on making heavy going of what is quite simple?

If you are in Tier 2, you shouldn't travel to Tier 3 unless for work, medical treatment or caring responsibilities. If you are providing care for your mum in place of your brother (to provide him respite) then you can. If you are not providing care for your mum in place of your brother (to provide him respite), you can't.

It's not really all that difficult, unless of course you want to make it difficult.
 

Billysboots

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Got on the scales last night, trousers getting a bit tight, for the first time in a while. Yeek put on about a stone of blubber.:eek: Anyone else put on loads ?

Not enough golf/activity or stuff to keep the body/mind active just work, eating and laying around bored. Got to do something about it.

Just held a press conference with the wife and we are going to be following the science, so locked down the sweet and biscuit cupboard.;)

Somewhat bizarrely I have done way more exercise since March than I ever have done. I’ve even gone to the lengths of setting up a small gym in the garage.

Even though my work (in normal times) is now office based, with little physical activity, I became really conscious of that level of inactivity when I started to do exactly the same work at home.

I’ve gone from doing cardio or strength work once in the bluest of blue moons to doing at least half an hour every day. The motivation will be tested now it’s colder outside, but I’ve now reached the point where I feel guilty if I have a day off.

So, from an exercise point of view, being stuck at home has actually been quite positive for me.
 
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