Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

fundy

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Is there any guide as to which tier places are likely to be in? Suspect theres a chance were in a higher tier here as we come under the same umbrella as Bournemouth these days, and cases have been quite high especially at/near the university
 

Lord Tyrion

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Is there any guide as to which tier places are likely to be in? Suspect theres a chance were in a higher tier here as we come under the same umbrella as Bournemouth these days, and cases have been quite high especially at/near the university
I believe they are going to do it in regions, a bit more blunt, less targetted, this time, and then it depends on numbers and the trend. You can pretty much work it out from there.

I am expecting us to be in tier 3 as we get lumped as a NE region and there are a number of hot spots in the group. The numbers in Northumberland are not great still but we should probably be tier 2 rather than 3.

Anywhere with a university nearby is going to be in trouble so tier 2-3 here you come. The only places in tier 1 will be islands or remote tips of the country. I can't see any regular regions escaping 2 or 3 until mid December at the earliest. Just my reading of it.
 

GB72

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I believe they are going to do it in regions, a bit more blunt, less targetted, this time, and then it depends on numbers and the trend. You can pretty much work it out from there.

I am expecting us to be in tier 3 as we get lumped as a NE region and there are a number of hot spots in the group. The numbers in Northumberland are not great still but we should probably be tier 2 rather than 3.

Anywhere with a university nearby is going to be in trouble so tier 2-3 here you come. The only places in tier 1 will be islands or remote tips of the country. I can't see any regular regions escaping 2 or 3 until mid December at the earliest. Just my reading of it.
Pretty much how I read it. We will be grouped in as easy midlands or even just Lincolnshire but either one puts us in with some high level areas in North Lincolnshire and so I suspect that Tier 2 is coming. Where we are in South Kesteven is not too bad but enough Tier 3 regions bordering us to make us a concern. Not sure many places, if any, will escape being in Tier 2 at least.
 

fundy

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Pretty much how I read it. We will be grouped in as easy midlands or even just Lincolnshire but either one puts us in with some high level areas in North Lincolnshire and so I suspect that Tier 2 is coming. Where we are in South Kesteven is not too bad but enough Tier 3 regions bordering us to make us a concern. Not sure many places, if any, will escape being in Tier 2 at least.
assume we'll be in tier 2 at best then, postpone that house hunting trip again lol
 

Billysboots

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I believe they are going to do it in regions, a bit more blunt, less targetted, this time, and then it depends on numbers and the trend. You can pretty much work it out from there.

I am expecting us to be in tier 3 as we get lumped as a NE region and there are a number of hot spots in the group. The numbers in Northumberland are not great still but we should probably be tier 2 rather than 3.

Anywhere with a university nearby is going to be in trouble so tier 2-3 here you come. The only places in tier 1 will be islands or remote tips of the country. I can't see any regular regions escaping 2 or 3 until mid December at the earliest. Just my reading of it.
Totally agree.

If anyone thinks 2 December is going to be a full lockdown relief then I think they’ll be disappointed. I’m already resigned to being in Tier 3 despite living in a rural area largely untouched by Covid. We were Tier 1 pre lockdown. Unfortunately, the nearby city has two universities and a large population which, from day one, has largely done as it pleased. We’re all about to pay the price.

My expectation is that I won’t be having a pint any time soon, and that when I can it will be with a meal only. And I can’t see that changing before March. These rules, I suspect, will be the last changes now until a vaccine program is almost complete and lockdowns are eased entirely.
 

GB72

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Totally agree.

If anyone thinks 2 December is going to be a full lockdown relief then I think they’ll be disappointed. I’m already resigned to being in Tier 3 despite living in a rural area largely untouched by Covid. We were Tier 1 pre lockdown. Unfortunately, the nearby city has two universities and a large population which, from day one, has largely done as it pleased. We’re all about to pay the price.

My expectation is that I won’t be having a pint any time soon, and that when I can it will be with a meal only. And I can’t see that changing before March. These rules, I suspect, will be the last changes now until a vaccine program is almost complete and lockdowns are eased entirely.
I will be honest and say that is makes little difference to me whether I am Tier 1 or Tier 2, it is the meeting with a small group of people indoors that is the important bit to me. Everything else I can cope with.
 

jim8flog

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Last month and Remembrance Day last month gave me a reminder of why we should endure the lockdowns

To give us the life style we endure now as well as a great many who gave their lives there are a great many who gave 6 + years of their life, many of whom were also locked away in POW camps for several years.

There are probably quite a few survivors and do we not owe them the right to enjoy what is left of the rest of their lives.

A few weeks verses many years - hardly compares.
 

Ethan

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Vaccine question @Ethan . Sooner or later another coronavirus is bound to emerge from somewhere (probably the same place as thisnone:rolleyes:) . Although it will be a different virus to Covid will all the research and knowledge gained from this give us a decent headstart in producing another vaccine or will it be back to square one?
Coronaviruses (and RNA viruses in general) don't have quite the same enthusiasm for mutation as DNA viruses, but mutation has happened already and will happen again. Some of the mutations may create mutants which are more infectious or more pathogenic, but some will be less of both too. As far as the human response goes, it is expected that people will have a degree of cross reactivity between (whether vaccine or infection-based) which will provide at least some response to the next version. So it is like your immune system won't specifically recognise the new mutation, but will intuitively know it is a wrong 'un and attack it anyway. This is what happens with flu. Most people don't get flu each season even though it is a "new" strain because of their innate immunity and cross reactivity from the catalogue of previous exposures built up over years.

The other factor is how long vaccine immunity lasts. I think it may well last some years, but as we work through that time period, each time a new mutation is identified, the vaccine can be updated to cover it, so unvaccinated people (depending where the national programme is cut off) get complete coverage, and the booster will probably only be needed by a subset of the previously vaccinated population. We won't be back to square one.

The Govt are working hard to say that the vaccines are not a magic bullet, mainly because they don't want people to get complacent now with the finish line in sight. But at the levels of efficacy announced, and effectiveness in older people, they really are a massive game changer. We just need to make sure we keep our noses clean until we actually get a good proportion of the population vaccinated.
 

Slime

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I've played golf for many years with a GP. He had strong views on prolonging death and was in favour of assisted death. I agree with him. We wouldn't let a dog suffer but argue that a human should...
I'm all for a bottle of pills and a damn good single malt.
Me too and, as it happens, do the people of New Zealand.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-54728717

I just hope that we see the light pretty soon.
 
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Backache

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Coronaviruses (and RNA viruses in general) don't have quite the same enthusiasm for mutation as DNA viruses, but mutation has happened already and will happen again.
RNA viruses have a higher mutation rate than DNA viruses, though coronaviruses have better proof reading than many other RNA viruses including flu so their mutation rate is lower.

There have been numerous mutations so far though few are thought to significantly affect the Spike protein which is the primary target for immune recognition in most of the vaccines
 

clubchamp98

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I’m not Ethan, but I think the answer to that has to be yes, given the Oxford Uni vaccine itself is a result of years of research, fine tuned for COVID-19.

Anyone who thinks this vaccine has been developed from scratch in eight months is rather misunderstanding the process I suspect.
Yes how nice would it be if countries actually cooperated on other matters like this in the future.
 

GB72

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Also rural and expecting that Staffordshire will be Tier 3 so will golf with the good lady for a while
looking at comments from our local health chief, we could even end up Tier 3. He thinks that we will be treated as Lincolnshire as a whole rather than North Lincs, South Lincs etc. That means that we will be grouped in with places like Boston with some of the highest rates per 100000.
 

Ethan

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I’m not Ethan, but I think the answer to that has to be yes, given the Oxford Uni vaccine itself is a result of years of research, fine tuned for COVID-19.

Anyone who thinks this vaccine has been developed from scratch in eight months is rather misunderstanding the process I suspect.
There is a BBC Podcast running at the moment called "How to vaccinate the world", hosted by Tim Harford, who does the stats show More or Less. The most recent episode had an expert virologist who said that in the event of a mutation in the spike protein, it will take about 2 weeks to update the genetic code used in either the mRNA or the Oxford vaccines.

Podcast link
 

Ethan

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RNA viruses have a higher mutation rate than DNA viruses, though coronaviruses have better proof reading than many other RNA viruses including flu so their mutation rate is lower.

There have been numerous mutations so far though few are thought to significantly affect the Spike protein which is the primary target for immune recognition in most of the vaccines
Thanks for the clarification. (y)
 

BiMGuy

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They might as well just make it a free for all. The sensible people will be just that. The morons will behave however they want regardless of any rules anyway.

Come mid Jan we'll all be in tier 3 or worse. Just so people aren't grown up enough to accept that much like the rest of the year, Christmas isn't going to be their version of normal this year.

I liked the idea of a lockdown Christmas. It meant we didn't have the hassle of visiting anyone.
 
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