D
Deleted member 1740
Guest
The spike hasn't came from just more testing. The spike has come from an increase of people mixing in schools/uni's/pubs/public transport etc and poor decision making from government.
Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?
- Thread starter drdel
- Start date
The spike hasn't came from just more testing. The spike has come from an increase of people mixing in schools/uni's/pubs/public transport etc and poor decision making from government.
D
Deleted member 16999
Guest
What happens next Stu? ie, hoping that you get no symptoms, will you isolate for 14 days and then go back to work? Or will you get retested?
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
It is so disheartening to hear that we are being told by some who must not be identified that we must listen carefully to the economic forecasts of economists - the economic experts - who are predicting the impact of a four week lockdown...remembering what we have been told in the past about the accuracy of economic forecasts. No wonder some people have become confused or angry..myself included...
Anyway, expressing my dismay without finger pointing about where the country is today is the best I can do on here.
Anyway, expressing my dismay without finger pointing about where the country is today is the best I can do on here.
Tashyboy
Please don’t ask to see my tatts 👍
Has Covid replaced the politics thread. ?
fundy
Ryder Cup Winner
D
Deleted member 1740
Guest
Got to isolate for 10 days from either day of test or 1st day of symptoms whichever applies. I can go back to work on the 11th day providing I'm symptom free for 48hrs before.
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drdel
Tour Rookie
Seems like it. Some people can't accept the guidance and will try to push the boundaries until everyone suffers. (Bit like COVID guidance).
Tashyboy
Please don’t ask to see my tatts 👍
Ethan, as I understand it. The first lockdown in consideration of Protect the NHS, drs and medical staff were dealing with this unknown virus the best they could. Probably and unfortunately a certain amount of trial and error Involved.
Now the second lockdown is nigh on upon us, what have the specialists, drs etc learned through experience from the first time round that will help them this time round. Is there any drugs that are now more in use Etc etc.
Cheers me man.
drdel
Tour Rookie
Tashyboy
Please don’t ask to see my tatts 👍
D
Deleted member 1740
Guest
Cheers Tashy, I'm all good here. No symptoms or anything like that thankfully
PJ87
Journeyman Pro
Well wishes stu hope you don't get any further symtoms.
Tashyboy
Please don’t ask to see my tatts 👍
Come what may be it Teacher, nurse, Copper, class one lorry driver delivering your Xmas turkey ( and my two kids fall into the last 2 categories) And grandparent carers Me and Missis Tash. We all have a part to play whatever our careers.. A part that only 7 months ago was totally unrecognisable To where we are today.
That said this Covid for me has shown the very best and very worst of society from Captain Tom to three bloody idiots socially distancing whilst stuck in a tumble drier. Google it.
No matter what ones career Choice May be, I would hope that there is a level of health and safety involved for every individual to ensure that all safety protocols are put in place to help protect ones self and therefore others.
That said this Covid for me has shown the very best and very worst of society from Captain Tom to three bloody idiots socially distancing whilst stuck in a tumble drier. Google it.
No matter what ones career Choice May be, I would hope that there is a level of health and safety involved for every individual to ensure that all safety protocols are put in place to help protect ones self and therefore others.
Ethan
Money List Winner
Here is my review of the current state of play.
There has been a lengthy debate already about what the timing and nature of the first lockdown should or could have been, and the question of testing an contact tracing. Most public health doctors and virologists expected a second wave, because you can't suppress it hard enough for long enough to prevent one, but the severity of that second wave was always going to be affected by how well we had done with the first. Not well.
Now, what has changed?
Well, first, I think we know more about the disease. It was known from the outset that this wasn't a conventional pneumonia, at least not in the characteristic decline around day 7, it was an inflammatory condition similar to Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), so a different approach to oxygenation and dealing with immune reactions are probably more effective. Normally in a pneumonia, you wouldn't damp immune response. That partly explains the lower death rate now. We now know that hydroxychloroquine is useless, remdesivir is of modest effect. Dexamethasone is useful for people who require oxygenation, but has a modest effect.
Second, the first wave cleared out a lot of older people, especially from care homes. The Dept of Health policy to push these people back untested to their care homes was disastrous, but as a result, the vulnerable population has changed to a less unfit one, so that probably also partly explains the lower death rate now.
Third, Covid appears to be changing a bit, to a form which is more transmissible but less severe. That may end up being no real gain, but it may explain why we are seeing more cases but proportionately fewer deaths. What we don't now if the sting in the tail of fewer deaths is more long term complications.
Fourth, long Covid. This refers to the persistence of symptoms in people who initially had mild-moderate disease. This is multi-organ and can include all sorts of stuff from fatigue (common) to psychotic symptoms (reflecting encephalitis), liver, kidney, heart and, in particular, thrombotic effects with micro clots in all sorts of organs with a range of clinical manifestations from minor to serious. I suspect this will be the long term legacy. Covid appears to affect many body systems and have multiple effects. I expect we will see an increase in autoimmune disease, ranging from Type I Diabetes to lupus, and possibly odd cancers and unusual genetic birth defects.
Fifth, vaccines. I am pretty upbeat on vaccines. There are multiple programmes in development, with a range of different mechanisms. None of them that I am aware of (apart from possibly the Russian one) use inactivated Covid. These development programmes have been the subject of feverish public interest with every detail picked over in the popular press. This has fuelled a certain amount of paranoia about the safety standards. Everyone is entitled to form their own view, but mine (based on my career in pharma) is that the regulators are able to balance the urgent need with the safety standards needed and I will therefore take the vaccine as soon as offered. The big challenge is administration. The job of making the vaccine is not a rate limiting step, but it takes a large effort to give to to millions of people. The recent Joint Committee for Vaccination and Immunisation recommendations suggest essentially that it will be given to over 50s, NHS and care home workers and specific highly vulnerable people first and then decisions made on others. Vaccines are likely to prevent disease in some people and reduce severity in others.
Sixth, lockdown. In my opinion (and other opinions are available), we needed a harder and earlier lockdown back in March, and we are now paying the price for that. The need to balance economy and health is, in my opinion, a false dichotomy. The two go hand in hand, and I think Get is slow coming round to this, so I expect a fairly hard lockdown this week in order to preserve some chance of a decent Christmas. But that Christmas will pose a further exposure risk, so I don't think we are done there, and will likely need to lockdown again in the new year. By then, we should be seeing vaccine coming through, so it may be the beginning of the end.
Seventh, herd immunity. This appears to have been the initial plan, and the Swedish plan too. This is highly problematic, for various ethical and practical reasons. Not the least of these is that it doesn't protect the shielded. Sporadic cases will still occur when shielded people encounter asymptomatic carriers, and there will still be quite a few of them, so vaccination is really the only solution for the shielded, and even that is not a guaranteed solution. We will, however, reach a position where the degree of natural infection, mostly in younger people, and the start of vaccination, add together to give an increasing proportion of the population that is able to function much closer to "normal", and eventually we will reach a tipping point where relative normality returns for most people.
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Jamesbrown
Head Pro
I don’t do illogical and inconsistent, and when things are that way I cannot take that seriously especially when jobs and livelihoods are at stake and folk out of work, despite adhering and adopting guidelines imposed on them previously out of their own pocket.
Swinglowandslow
Well-known member
There was a post some while ago on here pointing to a science report about "aerosol " effect as opposed to "droplets" effect.
I can't find it , but I did make a note of what it said, and below is a relevant part of it.
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Viruses in droplets (larger than 100 μm) typically fall to the ground in seconds within 2 m of the source and can be sprayed like tiny cannonballs onto nearby individuals. Because of their limited travel range, physical distancing reduces exposure to these droplets. Viruses in aerosols (smaller than 100 μm) can remain suspended in air for many seconds to hours, like smoke, and be inhaled. They are highly concentrated near an infected person, so they can infect people most easily in close proximity. But aerosols containing infectious virus (2) can also travel more than 2 m and accumulate in poorly ventilated indoor air, leading to superspreading events
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The conditions in first lockdown did not allow aerosol spread, but soon as they were relaxed to allow indoor mixing, pubs etc, and now that the weather has pushed all this indoors, then it is apparent to me that aerosol spreading is more prevalent.
What surprises me is that it isn't highlighted and warned against.
Or is it an inconvenient truth not to be emphasised ?
This being a golf forum first and foremost, what are everyone’s views regarding courses shutting in the event of a second lockdown?
Given what we know now about the virus, I see no reason whatsoever why we cannot go back to what we saw in May. Close clubhouses and allow us to continue playing golf.
All the evidence points towards negligible transmission outdoors, and certainly not on a golf course if common sense is applied.
But common sense seems so out dated in 2020 ?
Given what we know now about the virus, I see no reason whatsoever why we cannot go back to what we saw in May. Close clubhouses and allow us to continue playing golf.
All the evidence points towards negligible transmission outdoors, and certainly not on a golf course if common sense is applied.
But common sense seems so out dated in 2020 ?
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robinthehood
Hacker
Trouble is, people are stupid and I see lots of handshaking etc.
SaintHacker
Journeyman Pro
This. Unfortunately the original exit plan relied on the public showing a tiny bit of common sense and thought for others. Big mistake
As I say, common sense is so last year......