Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[Tashyboy]

Here is my review of the current state of play.

There has been a lengthy debate already about what the timing and nature of the first lockdown should or could have been, and the question of testing an contact tracing. Most public health doctors and virologists expected a second wave, because you can't suppress it hard enough for long enough to prevent one, but the severity of that second wave was always going to be affected by how well we had done with the first. Not well.

Now, what has changed?

Well, first, I think we know more about the disease. It was known from the outset that this wasn't a conventional pneumonia, at least not in the characteristic decline around day 7, it was an inflammatory condition similar to Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), so a different approach to oxygenation and dealing with immune reactions are probably more effective. Normally in a pneumonia, you wouldn't damp immune response. That partly explains the lower death rate now. We now know that hydroxychloroquine is useless, remdesivir is of modest effect. Dexamethasone is useful for people who require oxygenation, but has a modest effect.

Second, the first wave cleared out a lot of older people, especially from care homes. The Dept of Health policy to push these people back untested to their care homes was disastrous, but as a result, the vulnerable population has changed to a less unfit one, so that probably also partly explains the lower death rate now.

Third, Covid appears to be changing a bit, to a form which is more transmissible but less severe. That may end up being no real gain, but it may explain why we are seeing more cases but proportionately fewer deaths. What we don't now if the sting in the tail of fewer deaths is more long term complications.

Fourth, long Covid. This refers to the persistence of symptoms in people who initially had mild-moderate disease. This is multi-organ and can include all sorts of stuff from fatigue (common) to psychotic symptoms (reflecting encephalitis), liver, kidney, heart and, in particular, thrombotic effects with micro clots in all sorts of organs with a range of clinical manifestations from minor to serious. I suspect this will be the long term legacy. Covid appears to affect many body systems and have multiple effects. I expect we will see an increase in autoimmune disease, ranging from Type I Diabetes to lupus, and possibly odd cancers and unusual genetic birth defects.

Fifth, vaccines. I am pretty upbeat on vaccines. There are multiple programmes in development, with a range of different mechanisms. None of them that I am aware of (apart from possibly the Russian one) use inactivated Covid. These development programmes have been the subject of feverish public interest with every detail picked over in the popular press. This has fuelled a certain amount of paranoia about the safety standards. Everyone is entitled to form their own view, but mine (based on my career in pharma) is that the regulators are able to balance the urgent need with the safety standards needed and I will therefore take the vaccine as soon as offered. The big challenge is administration. The job of making the vaccine is not a rate limiting step, but it takes a large effort to give to to millions of people. The recent Joint Committee for Vaccination and Immunisation recommendations suggest essentially that it will be given to over 50s, NHS and care home workers and specific highly vulnerable people first and then decisions made on others. Vaccines are likely to prevent disease in some people and reduce severity in others.

Sixth, lockdown. In my opinion (and other opinions are available), we needed a harder and earlier lockdown back in March, and we are now paying the price for that. The need to balance economy and health is, in my opinion, a false dichotomy. The two go hand in hand, and I think Get is slow coming round to this, so I expect a fairly hard lockdown this week in order to preserve some chance of a decent Christmas. But that Christmas will pose a further exposure risk, so I don't think we are done there, and will likely need to lockdown again in the new year. By then, we should be seeing vaccine coming through, so it may be the beginning of the end.

Seventh, herd immunity. This appears to have been the initial plan, and the Swedish plan too. This is highly problematic, for various ethical and practical reasons. Not the least of these is that it doesn't protect the shielded. Sporadic cases will still occur when shielded people encounter asymptomatic carriers, and there will still be quite a few of them, so vaccination is really the only solution for the shielded, and even that is not a guaranteed solution. We will, however, reach a position where the degree of natural infection, mostly in younger people, and the start of vaccination, add together to give an increasing proportion of the population that is able to function much closer to "normal", and eventually we will reach a tipping point where relative normality returns for most people.

cheers me man, ? greatly appreciated

 

[Tashyboy]

This being a golf forum first and foremost, what are everyone’s views regarding courses shutting in the event of a second lockdown?

Given what we know now about the virus, I see no reason whatsoever why we cannot go back to what we saw in May. Close clubhouses and allow us to continue playing golf.

All the evidence points towards negligible transmission outdoors, and certainly not on a golf course if common sense is applied.

But common sense seems so out dated in 2020 ?

There’s an old saying “ common sense ain’t that common”

And as Sandra on Facebook would say, coz she has no common sense. ” so I cannot go to me mums but we can both join St Andrews, play golf and talk there”.

 

[PJ87]

This being a golf forum first and foremost, what are everyone’s views regarding courses shutting in the event of a second lockdown?

Given what we know now about the virus, I see no reason whatsoever why we cannot go back to what we saw in May. Close clubhouses and allow us to continue playing golf.

All the evidence points towards negligible transmission outdoors, and certainly not on a golf course if common sense is applied.

But common sense seems so out dated in 2020 ?

It will be seen as grossly unfair aswell

I can't do this and this but it's ok for the posh boys to play golf

Perception wise

 

[Captainron]

I’m against any form of lockdown that could be put in place. Without a cure/vaccine there is no way to curb the spread of the virus that would take us out of lockdown. It won’t just vanish if we all stay indoors and hide away.

 

[Deleted member 15344]

I will be surprised if it’s a full lockdown - not sure the country can afford it both financially and mentally.

Can see schools , nurseries , shops staying open bit pubs , restaurants etc closing

Sports still carrying on etc

The increases in case can clearly in many areas be seen tk start when pubs etc opened up and even more so when the help out to eat out started and then when schools etc opened up

Cant see any reason why golf , tennis etc should have to stop

 

[Papas1982]

Imo if they announce a full lockdown the day furlough ends it'll be carnage for theme economy.

I imagine the tories are terrified to do it as they've had their best poll results in the North recently, but imo local full lockdowns may be the answer. I can see real issues if places that atm are relatively low in infection rates have to lockdown. It'll course issues of they have spikes at people feel they've been left inside pointlessly.

 

[GB72]

I can see a full lockdown coming with a 1 month extension of furlough. Without that it would be chaos.

If the funds are not there for that, I can see no meeting between households, pubs and restaurants closing.

 

[Papas1982]

I can see a full lockdown coming with a 1 month extension of furlough. Without that it would be chaos.

If the funds are not there for that, I can see no meeting between households, pubs and restaurants closing.

And then when there's another spike and another after that until we have a vaccine?

The furlough scheme has to end imo. Harsh as it is. I just don't see how it can be funded with no end in sight.

 

[GB72]

And then when there's another spike and another after that until we have a vaccine?

The furlough scheme has to end imo. Harsh as it is. I just don't see how it can be funded with no end in sight.

Sometimes you just have to deal with the short term. Cannot see a decision that risks mass unemployment going in to Xmas.

 

[Billysboots]

And then when there's another spike and another after that until we have a vaccine?

To be fair, back in March I think most people expected repeated short term lockdowns until this pandemic has passed.

I’m more surprised it’s taken this long before there’s real talk of another one.

 

[Papas1982]

Sometimes you just have to deal with the short term. Cannot see a decision that risks mass unemployment going in to Xmas.

I think it was coming anyway tbh. Companies may hold on til January to get their 1k per person, but then they'll drop staff.

I think a lot of companies got by with less staff during furlough and may well streamline.

On a side note. I really don't see the infatuation of having to have it sorted by Xmas. I certainly can't recall too much sympathy being shown during Eid.

 

[Papas1982]

To be fair, back in March I think most people expected repeated short term lockdowns until this pandemic has passed.

I’m more surprised it’s taken this long before there’s real talk of another one.

I agree, I didn't expect a run this long. I thought the week prior to half term and then half term itself would be used. Then again, if a full lockdown means no travel then that would have meant millions more lost by that industry.

 

[Griffsters]

I really struggle to see an ending to all this, COVID isn't going anywhere even with another lockdown.

Tremendous damage is done whichever path the government takes. On a personal level, if I can still get out and play some golf I'll be happy.

 

[Ethan]

cheers me man, ? greatly appreciated

Forgot to add:

Immunity. Much coverage in the media about antibodies recently, after data came out showing that antibodies decline with time. This should have been no surprise at all, we have always known this. Your body can't store antibodies for everything you have ever encountered, because that is a lot. What happens is that after a period, the antibodies fall back to low (usually undetectable) levels, but your immune memory is ready to restart production, and can do so very quickly. in addition, T-cells become activated and can also deal with intruders, albeit not with the same specificity as antibodies. Vaccination should provide an effective period of antibodies, showing that your body has responded, but then when they fall off, immune memory will look after things. If Covid mutates, as is likely, then there may be degrees of crossover between immunity which gives you at least a head start in dealing with the new mutant, and may be enough for many people. This is kinda what happens with flu, and even though there is one or more new mutations each season, your immunity has sort of got the measure of it and recognises it. Older people don't do this so well. It is not clear if the same will apply to Covid. I am pretty confident that we can gain initial control with vaccines and although Covid is here to stay, we will deal with it better (immunologically) with time.

 

[Fish]

Whatever the decision, the government is damned if it does and dammed if it doesn’t, and the opposition offers no alternatives other than moaning about the sitting governments decisions, and if anything, they have pushed for stricter sanctions, whilst asking for exit policies without offering one themselves, how can you offer an exit strategy with no clear end in sight?

This is with us now, it’s a part of our lives, without a vaccine it’s here to stay, life as we knew it will never be the same, as you can’t restrict travel or movement of any kind, life has to carry on, the economy demands it, so we adjust as best we can to live with it.

Shutting everything down then reopening only stutters it, or delays it taking hold again, as we’re seeing in Europe, who had much tougher and quicker lock downs than us!

So easy pointing fingers from the comfort of your chairs, it’s not something that has ever happened before or could be planned for, and scientific information will be being offered daily, or hourly, and then acted upon as best as the government can.

 

[Ethan]

Whatever the decision, the government is damned if it does and dammed if it doesn’t, and the opposition offers no alternatives other than moaning about the sitting governments decisions, and if anything, they have pushed for stricter sanctions, whilst asking for exit policies without offering one themselves, how can you offer an exit strategy with no clear end in sight?

This is with us now, it’s a part of our lives, without a vaccine it’s here to stay, life as we knew it will never be the same, as you can’t restrict travel or movement of any kind, life has to carry on, the economy demands it, so we adjust as best we can to live with it.

Shutting everything down then reopening only stutters it, or delays it taking hold again, as we’re seeing in Europe, who had much tougher and quicker lock downs than us!

So easy pointing fingers from the comfort of your chairs, it’s not something that has ever happened before or could be planned for, and scientific information will be being offered daily, or hourly, and then acted upon as best as the government can.

So the Govt is blameless whatever happens?

The opposition has offered some alternatives, actually, principally scaling up NHS and PHE structures to perform test and trace rather than funding private companies and friends of the party. That would have made a big difference. With the pathetic T&T was have, we have lost control of the virus.

You can restrict movement, it is being done and can be done a lot more. Making a choice between the health issues and the economy is a false one and they are inextricably linked. If we don't get control of the health issues, we won't get control of the economy either.

Other European countries are seeing a second wave, but some, like Germany, are better situated to deal with it than we are.

It is wrong to say this could not be planned for. The uK ran a pandemic planning exercise but is wiunwilling to publish the report because we know they didn't implement the recommendations. Germany did, though. The Govt uses science as cover rather than direction. SAGE recommended a circuit break in Sept. Govt didn't do it, under pressure from backbenchers. That might have reduced the scale or duration of the lockdown that is imminent.

 

[chrisd]

. Your body can't store antibodies for everything you have ever encountered, because that is a lot.

Given how many grossly overweight people I see these days some have ample room!

 

[Deleted member 16999]

Why are people shocked we are looking at a 2nd lockdown, we were warned about a 2nd spike in the autumn last April, we were warned about coming out of lockdown to quick.

Better a 2nd lockdown and a further 12 months for the economy to recover than losing thousands of more lives that could be saved if we do nothing.

 

[drdel]

À few good posts and now we're back to political bickering.

 

[PhilTheFragger]

Guys , can we avoid political content , however general