Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

That's not where the cases are coming from, they're coming from the spread of Covid. Testing only reveals some of the cases.

Indeed…re testing and the resulting ‘exposure’ of the level of infection - I see this rather simply. I’d rather the curtains were fully drawn back so we can see the ‘crime’ being perpetrated in the room, rather than having the curtains only part open or drawn and not seeing. Because not seeing into the room does not mean the ‘crime’ is not happening, and if we cannot see it we are less likely to be able to stop it or prevent it.

We need to have the clearest and best possible estimate of the numbers of infections in the population, because it is the numbers that drive the illness and absence from work, that can develop into serious illness and possible deaths, whilst at the same time posing a possibly crippling load on the NHS.

 

[Fade and Die]

As usual a lot of exaggeration where people strive to make their points and lurid forecasts aiming for a bit of #metoo coverage and self promotion.

One death has been attributed to “Omicron” with the deceased reported enjoying underlying health conditions.

Why do people like to scare each other so?

 

[Deleted member 25172]

If one of the main aims is to protect the NHS, surely those seeing the numbers are seeing the start of an increase in admissions. If there’s barely been a ripple, what’s all the fuss about? Equally, if admissions are rising, why all the arguing?

Focussing on number of cases only, if that is the case, is just ignorant.

Did a check on that now too. Weekly avg numbers of people in hospital back to start of October.

 

[road2ruin]

The credible plan to manage the economy was to get control of the virus hard and fast. But prevarication and dithering, assisted by our local MP, put the knife in that, and the problem has been reported several times since. More half-arsed attempts will only further prolong the problem.

Ferguson changes his forecasts as data changes the underlying assumptions, as he should. I attached his full report yesterday. Read that rather than the Daily Heil. His assumption on the case fatality rate with omicron is probably exaggerated, but the hospitalisation rate may be less exaggerated.

We are not South Africa, for a whole host of reasons explained by others, and it would be extremely dangerous to make assumptions based on their early observations of omicron.

And if you are afraid of catching something, should avoid Spoons. Lots of pathogens there, some on the menu.

The problem with the Ferguson etc models are that they only model the worst case, they ignore the scenario where Omicron is less virulent, they don’t put that forward even though it’s a completely plausible scenario.

Also, the modellers model what they powers that be ask them to model I.e. what suits the direction of travel.

This was a quote on Twitter today from Graham Medley who is a member of SAGE….

“We generally model what we are asked to model. There is a dialogue in which policy teams discuss with the modellers what they need to inform their policy.”

So basically they were only asked to model the bad scenarios.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Heard a woman on the radio today refer to Chris Whitty as being part of the SS … the ‘Sage Scientists’ she smugly explained. Just beggars belief, but this is the sort of state the country is heading into when some feel it necessary to be open, honest and explicit about what we need to do, where others chose to prevaricate and obfuscate ?

 

[Canary_Yellow]

Theres so much conflicting information around I'm totally confused and miffed with the current situation.

But I'm no expert ?

We’re all miffed and not sure any of us are experts.

However, plenty speak as if they are, which leaves me confused ?

To be fair I was an arm chair expert on curling at one point.

 

[Hobbit]

I live in a small town of just 3,800 people. Since the pandemic began there’s been 372 cases, of which there’s been 4 deaths. All those that have died were over 80, 2 of which had underlying health issues.

Of the 8 municipalities(45,000pop) locally, we’re the second smallest, there’s been 5,004 cases and 71 deaths.

No doubt the fierce lockdowns we’ve experienced have made quite a difference, but looking at those numbers I do question has it all been a massive overreaction?

 

[GaryK]

Had my booster yesterday evening and all good so far - only a rather sore arm.

Strange thing though is that I had the 2 x AZ earlier in the year and last night they said that I would be having the Moderna booster.
When I got to the front of the Moderna queue, a rather lovely nurse approached me and asked if I'd like to have Pfizer instead - I really wasn't bothered which one I had, but they did give me Pfizer in the end.
The nurse administering the job said that lots of people of asking for Pfizer and aren't happy when they are given Moderna.

 

[SocketRocket]

Indeed…re testing and the resulting ‘exposure’ of the level of infection - I see this rather simply. I’d rather the curtains were fully drawn back so we can see the ‘crime’ being perpetrated in the room, rather than having the curtains only part open or drawn and not seeing. Because not seeing into the room does not mean the ‘crime’ is not happening, and if we cannot see it we are less likely to be able to stop it or prevent it.

We need to have the clearest and best possible estimate of the numbers of infections in the population, because it is the numbers that drive the illness and absence from work, that can develop into serious illness and possible deaths, whilst at the same time posing a possibly crippling load on the NHS.

Isn't it a bit of a paradox though. We only know the numbers when they happen and among us. Leading up to that we have predictions based on mathematical modelling which have previously been wildly wrong. Remember 'Next slide please' last time where the modeling showed exponential growth of the Delta variant which never materialised although it frightened people to death.

 

[SaintHacker]

- only a rather sore arm.
.

Same here, I think she used an RPG instead of a hypodermic...

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Isn't it a bit of a paradox though. We only know the numbers when they happen and among us. Leading up to that we have predictions based on mathematical modelling which have previously been wildly wrong. Remember 'Next slide please' last time where the modeling showed exponential growth of the Delta variant which never materialised although it frightened people to death.

We know that the exponential growth charts show what happens without mitigation, and we need to understand that to justify the mitigations - and so when the mitigations are successful the unmitigated growth is avoided. That does not mean that the exponential growth predictions were wrong, they were simply mitigated. That many of the public might not get that, well that’s not the fault of the modellers.

 

[Deleted member 18121]

I do question has it all been a massive overreaction?

I'm never going to say it's an overreaction, because I'm no expert... Just a guy with an opinion, but, I look at the ONS data for total deaths in UK from 1990 to 2020 and despite the pandemic, total deaths are only marginally up....despite total population being approximately 9 million larger.

This whole situation hasn't felt right or smelt right since day 1 to me.

 

[Blue in Munich]

Had my booster yesterday evening and all good so far - only a rather sore arm.

Strange thing though is that I had the 2 x AZ earlier in the year and last night they said that I would be having the Moderna booster.
When I got to the front of the Moderna queue, a rather lovely nurse approached me and asked if I'd like to have Pfizer instead - I really wasn't bothered which one I had, but they did give me Pfizer in the end.
The nurse administering the job said that lots of people of asking for Pfizer and aren't happy when they are given Moderna.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

"In people who had received two doses of AZ, the study found a 30-fold rise in antibody levels after a Moderna booster, and a 25-fold rise after a Pfizer booster."

Mrs BiM & I changed our appointments to get a Moderna booster thanks to @Ethan who advised that the Moderna offered a slightly better response than the Pfizer for the booster.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

I’m sure I’m not alone in having a rising sense of anger at how this is all playing out, and the fact that opinion amongst so-called experts is so divided that us mere mortals have no hope whatsoever of knowing whether we’re staring into an abyss or if this is all being blown ridiculously out of proportion.

I’m quite sure Neil Ferguson’s views are now treated with suspicion by many, but even he seems to be getting confused if recent reports of his comments are accurate. Days ago he was, allegedly, saying that if we didn’t act fast we could be looking at 5000 deaths each day. Now today, he says vaccines or previous infection are likely to mean most infected with Omicron won’t have anything more than a mild illness. I absolutely accept this is media reporting and that his actual words need to be viewed in context, but those two statements are at opposite ends of the spectrum so how are the rest of us supposed to know what to believe?

And I wholeheartedly agree that the decision to impose future lockdowns cannot be guided by infections alone. Omicron infections have apparently tripled in the last 24 hours, whilst deaths WITH it (note, not necessarily because of it - that old chestnut) stand at seven. Just seven. Even allowing for a lag between infection and hospitalisation and death, something doesn’t stack up.

Virtually every report I am still seeing coming out of South Africa still suggests we have totally lost the plot. Yet the Welsh are so concerned that they are re-imposing stricter controls, including the closure of nightclubs. Yes, so concerned are the Welsh that they decided on 15 December to impose these measures. But not until 27 December. Excuse me? You’re either viewing this as a catastrophic situation or you’re not. What message does that decision send to anyone? It’s so wishy washy it’s laughable.

I will say for clarity, and before certain forumers leap down my throat and impose their expertise on me that I am but a mere pleb. I do not claim any true level of understanding about viruses, how they mutate, how they evolve and how they are ultimately brought under control. But I can read. And what I read is so vastly conflicting that I am beginning to lose patience with those who seek to impose their views on us, politicians and medics alike. And if I’m like that, you can bet your last pound so are others.

Just at a time when we are really needed to be on side with what others are striving to achieve during this mess, too many, myself included, are tiring of the conflict amongst those who profess to have the answers.

Good points , but the important thing is not to lose sight of the facts.
As of this date , 90k infections last 24 hrs; 70odd in previous 24 hrs, 70 odd day before. One hundred odd deaths each of those days.
Now, as you say, of those , Omicron responsible for 25 k infections in total, and 10 deaths.
Clearly Delta is the villain here, and as it's been around so long, it must be because people are relaxing in their SD, meeting up indoors en masse, etc, because they are treating the virus with disdain, or because they need to ignore it to survive financially.
IMO we could have lived this way without too much an increase in hospitalisations ( which is draining the NHS), if the unvaxxed had taken the vaccines.- I'm talking about the refuseniks here.
Hence the drive for boosters which , to have those you need the first two- so is in reality a drive to convert the unvaxxed.
Because Omicron is an uncertainty, but it seems to transmit easily, this drive to vaccinate is important because we don't need Omicron to add to the Delta problem that has NOT gone away
Let the figures tell you the truth, not the journos.

 

[GaryK]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

"In people who had received two doses of AZ, the study found a 30-fold rise in antibody levels after a Moderna booster, and a 25-fold rise after a Pfizer booster."

Mrs BiM & I changed our appointments to get a Moderna booster thanks to @Ethan who advised that the Moderna offered a slightly better response than the Pfizer for the booster.

I must have missed that stat - had I of known, then I think that I would have said no thanks to Pfizer and stuck with Moderna.
Maybe they were trying to use up the last of a Pfizer batch before it went out of date.
Anyway, it's done now and at least I have had my booster.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

I must have missed that stat - had I of known, then I think that I would have said no thanks to Pfizer and stuck with Moderna.
Maybe they were trying to use up the last of a Pfizer batch before it went out of date.
Anyway, it's done now and at least I have had my booster.

I wouldn't worry as the trial in the lancet quoted by the bbc, clearly shows a FULL dose for moderna being used for the trial figures(100ug).

The government actually only boost you with a half dose(50ug), so chances are the pfizer and moderna results will probably be fairly similar as result.....

 

[Ethan]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

"In people who had received two doses of AZ, the study found a 30-fold rise in antibody levels after a Moderna booster, and a 25-fold rise after a Pfizer booster."

Mrs BiM & I changed our appointments to get a Moderna booster thanks to @Ethan who advised that the Moderna offered a slightly better response than the Pfizer for the booster.

I had 2 x Pfizer plus Moderna and I was happy to get it. People need not delay to get one or the other, take the first one offered.

 

[ColchesterFC]

Had my booster yesterday evening and all good so far - only a rather sore arm.

Strange thing though is that I had the 2 x AZ earlier in the year and last night they said that I would be having the Moderna booster.
When I got to the front of the Moderna queue, a rather lovely nurse approached me and asked if I'd like to have Pfizer instead - I really wasn't bothered which one I had, but they did give me Pfizer in the end.
The nurse administering the job said that lots of people of asking for Pfizer and aren't happy when they are given Moderna.

I went for my booster this morning. Everyone there was lovely apart from the snotty faced cow on the desk when I was checking in. I went through all of the questions that she had and then she said "Do you have any questions"? I said, "Yes, which vaccine will I be getting today"? Her response was "Why does that matter"? I said "It really doesn't but I was just interested in which one I was getting".

I got the Moderna and have a slightly sore arm this evening but that's it so far. Not sure if it's the paracetamol or the gin that is helping limit the side effects. Guess I'll find out in the morning.

 

[larmen]

About 39 minutes ago Germany has declared the UK as virus variations territory. That’s 14 days enforces quarantine when travelling from Monday; another Xmas family visit cancelled.

 

[Canary_Yellow]

I'm never going to say it's an overreaction, because I'm no expert... Just a guy with an opinion, but, I look at the ONS data for total deaths in UK from 1990 to 2020 and despite the pandemic, total deaths are only marginally up....despite total population being approximately 9 million larger.

This whole situation hasn't felt right or smelt right since day 1 to me.

That could be right, but on the other hand, who knows what the outcome would have been had we allowed hospitals to be totally overwhelmed?

As it was, I don’t think there were many people that needed treatment and didn’t get it.