Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[Billysboots]

I have no particular brief for Ferguson and I prefer solid data to forecasts too. Ferguson probably does not generate the data on which the forecasts are based, so I guess what happened is that the data he was provided with justified a pessimistic assumption, but then as more data came ion, it changed. The problem is that data tends to change, although gets better with time. It often starts closer to one extreme on the optimistic-pessimistic spectrum, then shifts to the other end, but gradually centralises around the "true" answer with time. Probably best not to keep changing the model output in the early stages as the data bounces around looking for more accurate answers.

The question of which data set is true/accurate and which is the proper basis for policy decisions is a trickier one. There is a principle in public health called the precautionary principle, which basically says that you should assume the worst as it is easier to course-correct from there than from assuming the best and having to scrabble to increase activities. So it is wise to have a margin for error and if you think there will be 1000 deaths, plan for 5000 instead. The effects of getting these things wrong tend to occur on an exponential scale.

Thanks. Makes a lot of sense.

 

[Old Skier]

Booster appointment at 2 this afternoon (booked it at 10pm last night), arrived at 1:45, back out the door a couple of minutes later. A very efficient process.

If the amount of empty pizza boxes around was anything to go by, the local dominos is doing very well!

They are bringing them for those working at the centres FOC if it’s anything like up here.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

We must spend Christmas with my 91yr old MiL and my 64 yr old BiL. As he has (what seems pending furher investigations) to be a serious chest infection and is suffering from serious long covid (at best) my MiL is effectively his carer. As a result we have decided to minimise non-essential contact and activity in lead up to Christmas Eve when we travel north.

So no church for me this morning; I pulled out of the choir for this afternoons carol service and we haven’t gone along…and Mrs SILH has cancelled her Christmas/New Year hair do. Plus speaking with a neighbour we find out that all three households directly across the road from us each have someone covid positive. Not good.

 

[drdel]

We must spend Christmas with my 91yr old MiL and my 64 yr old BiL. As he has (what seems pending furher investigations) to be a serious chest infection and is suffering from serious long covid (at best) my MiL is effectively his carer. As a result we have decided to minimise non-essential contact and activity in lead up to Christmas Eve when we travel north.

And so no church for me this morning; I pulled out of the choir for this afternoons carol service and we haven’t gone along…and Mrs SILH has cancelled her Christmas/New Year hair do. Plus speaking with a neighbour we find out that all three neighbours directly across the road from us each have someone covid positive. Not good.

Surely you isolate as much as possible and can get the free LTD tests. Then both you and your wife can test yourselves immediately and daily: thereby mitigating the risks that you are carrying any virus.

 

[GB72]

Booster jab done , all plans postponed until Xmas Eve. About as sensible and protected as I can be now in the build up. Seeing same 6 people on Xmas Eve, Xmas day and boxing day then happy to lock myself away as long as is necessary if asked to do so.

 

[GB72]

Just wondered if anyone's activities have been impacted.

I must admit that at the moment we're trying to get to the truth behind the headlines. Its a virus that's obviously easily transmitted and can be deadly for some groups. As yet we've not changed our behaviour other than less handshaking. Our Club has also sent out advice and installed hand cleansers but that's about it.

This time last year 2,182 had been admitted into ICU care and about 200 had died despite vaccination; in the 1st week of Feb there were 270 admitted to ICUs. Before Xmas, December 9 and December 15 there were 586 patients hospitalised by flu in England. 174 patients admitted to intensive care with flu, bringing the total in 2019 to 2,092.

It will be interesting to see that statistics for the current quarter and the difference caused by the Coronavirus strains.

What are you doing/planning to do different?

Postponed one party and work Xmas lunch. Happy with that. Can give up a few things to avoid Xmas isolation

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Surely you isolate as much as possible and can get the free LTD tests. Then both you and your wife can test yourselves immediately and daily: thereby mitigating the risks that you are carrying any virus.

What we are going to do. We have a couple of packs of LatFlow tests so OK on that front.

And my Mrs just heard from a close friend senior NHS lead nurse practitioner in London that the talk/expectation is for a two week lockdown from 28th December. Two other friends in Belgium have told her that Netherlands is essentially in lockdown and Belgium is heading that way very quickly as a result of the Omicron virus.

 

[Foxholer]

We must spend Christmas with my 91yr old MiL and my 64 yr old BiL. As he has (what seems pending furher investigations) to be a serious chest infection and is suffering from serious long covid (at best) my MiL is effectively his carer. As a result we have decided to minimise non-essential contact and activity in lead up to Christmas Eve when we travel north.

So no church for me this morning; I pulled out of the choir for this afternoons carol service and we haven’t gone along…and Mrs SILH has cancelled her Christmas/New Year hair do. Plus speaking with a neighbour we find out that all three households directly across the road from us each have someone covid positive. Not good.

That's a perilous situation for your MiL!! All 'dosed up' I hope, or as much as she can be. I wish your family all the best. Wise precautions btw!

 

[Hobbit]

Covid passports come in at midnight tonight, through to the 15th January. The only place they won’t be required is in shops. Mandatory masks when outside your front door is currently before the courts for ratification. Some regions have applied for curfews and limiting the numbers inside bars and restaurants.

We have a couple of shopping trips to do + a (wedding anniversary) meal booked for Wednesday evening - restaurant only has an inside capacity of 12. We’ve pulled out of a big Christmas Day lunch, 30 club members attending, our next meal out being in a small restaurant on New Years Eve.

 

[AmandaJR]

What we are going to do. We have a couple of packs of LatFlow tests so OK on that front.

And my Mrs just heard from a close friend senior NHS lead nurse practitioner in London that the talk/expectation is for a two week lockdown from 28th December. Two other friends in Belgium have told her that Netherlands is essentially in lockdown and Belgium is heading that way very quickly as a result of the Omicron virus.

It's my birthday on the 29th and I wonder when this flipping virus will be resolved enough to allow me to celebrate with a nice meal out

 

[bobmac]

It's my birthday on the 29th and I wonder when this flipping virus will be resolved enough to allow me to celebrate with a nice meal out

You could get fish and chips and eat them in the car

 

[Lord Tyrion]

You could get fish and chips and eat them in the car

I was going to reply 'in 2 years time' but your answer is much cheerier ?

 

[Ethan]

One example of why uncertainties should be applied to Omicron is the observation that a higher proportion of Omicron infections are reinfections of people who had one of the previous variants. Also some evidence that people who had Delta previously get affected worse than those who had Beta. This could be because of some quirk in the immune response, or residual subclinical effects, or because it Delta infection was typically more recent than Beta, but either way if "recovered" Deltas get hit by Omicron, could increase the severity compared to previously uninfected people.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

That's a perilous situation for your MiL!! All 'dosed up' I hope, or as much as she can be. I wish your family all the best. Wise precautions btw!

Thankyou - and yes, they have both had their booster - though in case of BiL only last Monday - as have both of us (more than two weeks ago)

 

[Foxholer]

One example of why uncertainties should be applied to Omicron is the observation that a higher proportion of Omicron infections are reinfections of people who had one of the previous variants....

There's also the possibility that their initial infection - and recovery - didn't make them change the way they interact with other folk - continuing to be non-masking being an obvious example.

 

[Ethan]

There's also the possibility that their initial infection - and recovery - didn't make them change the way they interact with other folk - continuing to be non-masking being an obvious example.

Yes, although reinfection after Delta appears to be several-fold higher than after Beta, and you might assume that post-infection complacency wouldn't differ between the two.

 

[Slime]

It's my birthday on the 29th and I wonder when this flipping virus will be resolved enough to allow me to celebrate with a nice meal out

AMANDA : DON'T READ THIS UNTIL THE 29th.




I know it's not the same as a meal out, but

Happy birthday.

 

[AmandaJR]

AMANDA : DON'T READ THIS UNTIL THE 29th.




I know it's not the same as a meal out, but

Happy birthday.

Ahh thanks! Fact is I'd go for Afternoon Tea all day long BUT all the decent places around here close between Christmas and New Year!

 

[SocketRocket]

You could get fish and chips and eat them in the car

Or a MickeyD. I've been told on here it's quite healthy.

 

[Reemul]

One thing I am hearing from a lot of people is I have had it already so am safe and this leads to them disregarding any rules as they think they are invincible.

My brother in law tested positive today. They were coming for Xmas and live in our street. We find out today that this past week, he went to London to visit his daughter at Uni, went out twice this week in the evening to Bournemouth to parties as well. Like there is no problem. This now means him, his wife and 6 year old daughter are stuck in for Xmas, his eldest Daughter has moved in with her boyfriend this xmas to avoid his infection and his other 2 daughters both work in Pubs and could become risks to others though they are testing every day.

To add my brother (who I don't really see) also went to London last week with his Girlfriend and she came back positive on Monday, my parents were supposed to be going there for Xmas as we are having the in laws.

There just seems to be a lack of common sense going on. We decided last weekend to take it easy for the 2 weeks leading up to Xmas to ensure we could have a nice Xmas with family. The wife and I have had the booster 3 weeks ago, my eldest has had the Vaccine and my youngest had Covid a month ago. Sure it would be nice to go for a meal or the day out shopping but I would rather see those closest to me over Xmas.

There is a real divergence from those that take a few extra precautions and those that seem to be thinking bugger this all is well and take very few.

The press are as usual not helping, apparently we are looking at 10,000 hospitalisations a day and 6,000 deaths a week now. Even I am sceptical of the figures being bandied about and it's getting like Cry Wolf at some point regardless of how correct we are many just will not believe it.

This looks like it could lead to a real split with those that do and those that don't regardless of where the truth lies.