Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Deleted member 16999]

Don't get me wrong, I don't trust him but I'll base my judgement on this issue on his performance in this issue. He could be the world's worst plumber but he might be the world's best electrician.

Too risky for me Bri, He does his best, fails, we Leave 31st Oct with No Deal, all goes well, great, no harm done, not Boris’s fault.
If No Deal is bad, what then? Just say to those suffering, never mind Boris tried.

I know people won’t agree on here and it’s gone on too long, but if he’d of turned round and said something along the lines of...”I need to take stock, I need to review everything and I want the deadline moved to 31st March next year and then it will be new deal or no deal”

Everything right now seems bull in a china shop.

 

[IanM]

Project Fear Phase 3. Keep kicking the can down the road until we stay in.

 

[Colonel Bogey]

From his pov....He doesn't particularly want a deal! He simply wants to Leave! The deal can come later - or maybe 'much later'.

As for trusting him...Remember how he got to be PM!

...by watching May collapse under the weight of her inadequacies?

 

[Colonel Bogey]

Project Fear Phase 3. Keep kicking the can down the road until we stay in.

 

[User62651]

...by watching May collapse under the weight of her inadequacies?

No, by sheer and utter BS based upon a scruffy schoolboy in jolly japes persona that too many bought into as somehow qualification to be PM. Never mind any real detail.

His red line of 31st October just copied exactly what May did with 29th March. Both put there in fear of losing votes to hard right UKIP then Brexit Party, neither of whom had/have any MPs to influence parliamentary voting. Crazy.

 

[Foxholer]

...by watching May collapse under the weight of her inadequacies?

Then being the preferred candidate by Tory MPs in each round of voting!

 

[Parsaregood]

Too risky for me Bri, He does his best, fails, we Leave 31st Oct with No Deal, all goes well, great, no harm done, not Boris’s fault.
If No Deal is bad, what then? Just say to those suffering, never mind Boris tried.

I know people won’t agree on here and it’s gone on too long, but if he’d of turned round and said something along the lines of...”I need to take stock, I need to review everything and I want the deadline moved to 31st March next year and then it will be new deal or no deal”

Everything right now seems bull in a china shop.

Problem is the EU would have had to agree to an extension, if your credibly threatening to walk away after negotiating a new deal the EU would likely not have granted an extension based on the fact they have said no other deal is possible. The EU are the ones who have backed the UK into a corner. It's just a shame the last PM and her cabinet were trying to please the EU by going along with them and it's now common knowledge the ex-chancellor has been taking advice from EU lawyers! You couldn't make it up

 

[Deleted member 16999]

Problem is the EU would have had to agree to an extension, if your credibly threatening to walk away after negotiating a new deal the EU would likely not have granted an extension based on the fact they have said no other deal is possible. The EU are the ones who have backed the UK into a corner. It's just a shame the last PM and her cabinet were trying to please the EU by going along with them and it's now common knowledge the ex-chancellor has been taking advice from EU lawyers! You couldn't make it up

Still too rushed for me and both are playing hardball, problem though is this Country is not ready for No Deal, it’s ok making vote winning statements when those promises are for the future, it’s the here and know for business’s and the man in the street that matters more.

 

[Beezerk]

What did Mark Carney say yesterday? No deal wouldn't be as bad for the UK as first thought.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

What did Mark Carney say yesterday? No deal wouldn't be as bad for the UK as first thought.

But still bad:

The Bank warned last November that a disorderly Brexit could wipe about 8% off GDP through a recession worse than the financial crisis, under its worst-case scenario for the impact of a no-deal Brexit.
However, Carney said the central bank now estimated GDP would decline by about 5.5% – still a sizeable economic shock, but a less damaging one. Joblessness would rapidly increase, taking the unemployment rate to more than twice its current level, at about 7%. Inflation would also more than double to 5.5%.
In a letter to the Treasury committee, published on Wednesday, Carney said plans by governments and companies on both sides of the Channel had helped to lower the dangers to the economy.

 

[Beezerk]

Has he and the economic forecasters been massively wrong before?
I dont believe a lot they say just as much you dont believe BoJo 😉

 

[Doon frae Troon]

No, by sheer and utter BS based upon a scruffy schoolboy in jolly japes persona that too many bought into as somehow qualification to be PM. Never mind any real detail.

His red line of 31st October just copied exactly what May did with 29th March. Both put there in fear of losing votes to hard right UKIP then Brexit Party, neither of whom had/have any MPs to influence parliamentary voting. Crazy.

Totally agree, much better put than I could possibly do.
Red lines have been the downfall of this sorry shower
Done and died,. ..

.

 

[Deleted member 18121]

But still bad:

The Bank warned last November that a disorderly Brexit could wipe about 8% off GDP through a recession worse than the financial crisis, under its worst-case scenario for the impact of a no-deal Brexit.

The bank also made several other wild predictions of what would happen in the event of us voting to leave.... NONE of which came true.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

The bank also made several other wild predictions of what would happen in the event of us voting to leave.... NONE of which came true.

Are you sure NONE came true? Maybe you should look again.
He certainly, like experts on both sides, got some predictions wrong but it still doesn’t change my concerns over the impact of a No Deal.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

The impact of No Deal would be bad, anyone claiming otherwise is deluded. How bad? Nobody knows.

The current paralysis is bad, it IS impacting even though we have not actually left yet.

The EU wont budge from their current stance whilst there is no pressure to do so, and there currently isn't. It pains me to say it but Boris pushing them to the wire, imo, is our best chance of getting enough of a tweak to the current deal to get it through the HoC. We are not looking for a root and branch change, it is margins. What happened last night must have had Barnier sitting back, smiling and pouring himself a large one. He doesn't have to do anything whilst the UK is currently imploding, there is no pressure on him or the EU. If you want to learn how not to negotiate then follow the UK from the very beginning of this process through to now. Schools will be studying this process in future years, a classic 'how not to'.

Great quote from the head of the local Labour party where Luciana Berger has swapped to the LibDems "Berger now represents only 6% of Wavertree constituents - those who voted Lib Dem in the last election." Ouch. When you see figures such as that it does tend to give weight to the call that if an MP switches party from the one they stood for at an election then they should be subject to a byelection. Hard to argue against that with those sorts of figures. In her case it is going to happen anyway shortly so the people of Wavertree will soon have their chance to decide whether to keep her or not. (I'm willing to bet a whole 50p she doesn't stand in Wavertree again)

 

[Foxholer]

A dramatic demo of how Brexit (and BoJo) divides the country - and in this case Family!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49594793

 

[Deleted member 18121]

Are you sure NONE came true? Maybe you should look again.
He certainly, like experts on both sides, got some predictions wrong but it still doesn’t change my concerns over the impact of a No Deal.

I guess thats the flip of the coin - I like to envisage what a no deal can do for us in a positive way over coming decades, not be overly concerned by short term issues that will be overcome.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

I guess thats the flip of the coin - I like to envisage what a no deal can do for us in a positive way over coming decades, not be overly concerned by short term issues that will be overcome.

I’ve no doubt leaving the EU is best for us all in the long run. It’s the length of the short term that’s the biggest issue for me.

 

[drdel]

Are you sure NONE came true? Maybe you should look again.
He certainly, like experts on both sides, got some predictions wrong but it still doesn’t change my concerns over the impact of a No Deal.

'Crashing out' and 'No deal' are artificial/emotional constructs. The UK would become a full member of the WTO as it was before becoming second class and represented by the EU: previously the EEC & CM. Numerous countries rely on the WTO structures and protocols and the UK can do so while it sorts out better 'deals' with other countries that could include the EU. The EU can't introduce penal conditions on the UK for two reason: firstly WTO doesn't allow it and secondly Germany and other desperately need trade to keep flowing because the EU's growth is a disaster.

If you want to do the sums the WTO rates are available - its the uncertainty that is costing time and money.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

A dramatic demo of how Brexit (and BoJo) divides the country - and in this case Family!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49594793

Isn't the sister involved in the Change UK party, if it still exists? Splits in the family were already there.

It could be worse, they could be the Milliband family . Still awkward at family reunions there I suspect.