Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Hobbit]

What exactly is it that the EU is worried about - why does us leaving with no deal worry them?

If the EU aren't worried why are they looking to use the disaster fund to mitigate problems?

 

[Deleted member 16999]

I disagree on the time issue. If the election was 13th Oct, 14 days before the Brexit date, why couldn't an incoming PM ask for a further extension? I'm fairly certain the EU would expect it, assuming the Tories didn't win, as they've been clear they don't want a No Deal Brexit.

For me, taking No Deal off the table hands a massive advantage to the EU. Would you go into a car dealership and say I'll definitely buy that car and then expect the best deal. The dealer knows you will accept second best because you're buying it regardless. Its just about as stupid as you can get.

As for Boris's do or die, why not? If the current deal is the best the EU has to offer, as they've said many times before, No Deal is better. We've already heard rumblings from France and Germany of a better offer. And the Irish are seriously setting looking to set up checks away from the border - see the Beeb's website. I'm inclined to think Boris's posturing is having the desired effect.

But hey. let's cut his negotiating legs from under him.

Too many people are making their opinions based on personalities instead of the issues. Boris is a .. of the first water but at least he looked like the issue was moving forward.

What if no Party had a majority and we have a hung Parliament etc, your scenario only works if anyone gets a clear majority.

As for taking his legs, why not simply stop everything and tell us he is concentrating on getting the deal done, ie, recall from summer, no Queens Speech until mid Nov, it’s ok saying we should give him a chance, but his record proves otherwise.
As I said previously, he’s managed to do what no one else has managed and that’s unite the opposition.

 

[IanM]

But what kind of renegotiation would the EU carry out? They hold all the cards and dont want us to leave and this situation has been created by those that voted for this current delaying bill that just keeps kicking the can down the road.

Nice of the folk in the HoC to vote for the EU rather than the UK..... warped

 

[Deleted member 1147]

If the EU aren't worried why are they looking to use the disaster fund to mitigate problems?

I don't know - that's why I'm asking!

What is the effect on them?

 

[Deleted member 16999]

But what kind of renegotiation would the EU carry out? They hold all the cards and dont want us to leave and this situation has been created by those that voted for this current delaying bill that just keeps kicking the can down the road.

Then he should be demanding both him and the EU publicly come out and state they are renegotiating and until they do that, it’s he said/she said.

 

[Deleted member 1147]

No divorce settlement, The UK is their biggest EXPORT market so will be subject to whatever tariffs we impose on them. etc

Head of German Central Bank gave very excellent appraisal of this recently, but you'll do well to find it! You don't think media coverage is impartial do you?

Who will get hit hardest by tariffs, us or them?

...and no, I don't think the media is impartial. They all serve their own particular master, be it Murdoch, Barclay Bros, Lebedev, Guardian etc, and their political/economic/social needs

 

[Hobbit]

Then he should be demanding both him and the EU publicly come out and state they are renegotiating and until they do that, it’s he said/she said.

Boris has said time and time again he wants to negotiate. The EU have said time and time again they will not take the backstop off the table and the WA will not be reopened. They've said they'll listen, but then said there's nothing else to offer.

But in recent weeks, what have we heard from the French and Germans, and what was on the Beeb's site yesterday about Ireland? As brutal as Boris's stance is it appears to be working, or was until the Remain MP's chopped his legs off.

What if no Party had a majority and we have a hung Parliament etc, your scenario only works if anyone gets a clear majority.

As for taking his legs, why not simply stop everything and tell us he is concentrating on getting the deal done, ie, recall from summer, no Queens Speech until mid Nov, it’s ok saying we should give him a chance, but his record proves otherwise.
As I said previously, he’s managed to do what no one else has managed and that’s unite the opposition.

So you're pre-judging?

 

[IanM]

Who will get hit hardest by tariffs, us or them?

According the the German Minister and based on current net exports them.

All the reporting of this on BBC and Sky News infers otherwise and ignores the simple fact that the rest of the world "buys and sells stuff!"

And the Trade bit conveniently diverts talk away from where the EU is heading..... but of course I only want to leave as I am uneducated racist.

 

[Taz]

Best jokes of the day

Jo Swinson: 'I'm running to be the next Prime Minister'





@DavidLammy
·
John Bercow is an inter-galactic hero. In this noisy world of moneyed oafs belching their jingoism, he brings style, civility, and Shakespearean rhyme. A true freestyler.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

Boris has said time and time again he wants to negotiate. The EU have said time and time again they will not take the backstop off the table and the WA will not be reopened. They've said they'll listen, but then said there's nothing else to offer.

But in recent weeks, what have we heard from the French and Germans, and what was on the Beeb's site yesterday about Ireland? As brutal as Boris's stance is it appears to be working, or was until the Remain MP's chopped his legs off.




So you're pre-judging?

Prejudging him, yes absolutely, his record is abysmal.
No faith in him whatsoever.

And as you’ve put above “appears to be working” and we know how dangerous appearances can be.

 

[Hobbit]

Prejudging him, yes absolutely, his record is abysmal.
No faith in him whatsoever.

And as you’ve put above “appears to be working” and we know how dangerous appearances can be.

Don't get me wrong, I don't trust him but I'll base my judgement on this issue on his performance in this issue. He could be the world's worst plumber but he might be the world's best electrician.

 

[PhilTheFragger]

The only chance we had of getting a better deal, was to keep no deal on the table,
That has been taken away, (For the moment)so now there is no chance of a better deal.

If a GE comes, it is going to be another Brexit referendum, the Torys will have to promise to leave whatever, otherwise the Brexit party will split their vote, so the torys and brexit will form a pact
Lib dems are campaigning to stay whatever, so they will attract votes from labour and remaining torys
Labour at the moment dont have much of a strategy apart from delaying.

I forsee a tory majority with all the no deal legislation repealed swiftly and out deal or no deal

 

[Deleted member 1147]

According the the German Minister and based on current net exports them.

All the reporting of this on BBC and Sky News infers otherwise and ignores the simple fact that the rest of the world "buys and sells stuff!"

And the Trade bit conveniently diverts talk away from where the EU is heading..... but of course I only want to leave as I am uneducated racist.

You know what they say, the first step to improvement is acknowledging your failings

 

[Hobbit]

The only chance we had of getting a better deal, was to keep no deal on the table,
That has been taken away, (For the moment)so now there is no chance of a better deal.

If a GE comes, it is going to be another Brexit referendum, the Torys will have to promise to leave whatever, otherwise the Brexit party will split their vote, so the torys and brexit will form a pact
Lib dems are campaigning to stay whatever, so they will attract votes from labour and remaining torys
Labour at the moment dont have much of a strategy apart from delaying.

I forsee a tory majority with all the no deal legislation repealed swiftly and out deal or no deal

The LibDems campaigned on a Remain manifesto at the last GE. It'll be interesting to see how well they'll do.

 

[User62651]

2nd referendum-people’s vote.

Call a GE and let the people vote. Oh it’s gone very quiet on that one this week.

Think you're just fishing but I'll bite.

November GE is fine, why does it need to be in just 6 short weeks in October? - too quick. Leaves little time for souring candidates, manifestos, canvassing, hustings, debates etc etc.

I'm ok with opposition parties not dancing immediately to Johnson's tune on an October GE, why the rush Boris......hmmmm, something to do with Halloween perhaps? Let him stew in his own self made mess for a bit first, reflect a bit.
Get an extension to Art50, secure the no to No Deal position legally first as that's what parliament want, fairly sensible condition of agreeing GE imo as I dont agree No Deal is a bargaining position at all - it's actually worse on us than it is on EU, which is not leverage.
He may be PM but is now effectively in opposition because he's sacked off his own MPs. Self made situation (with Cummings steering).

 

[Captainron]

616 pages of this latest installation on here after the previous thread was unceremoniously dumped and even we can't get an agreement amongst ourselves so what hope does any government have?

Where is a military dictatorship when you need one?

 

[Deleted member 18121]

Where is a military dictatorship when you need one?

Not quite military, but you could argue that this last week has seen some dictatorial elements from our MPs.

 

[Hobbit]

Think you're just fishing but I'll bite.

November GE is fine, why does it need to be in just 6 short weeks in October? - too quick. Leaves little time for souring candidates, manifestos, canvassing, hustings, debates etc etc.

I'm ok with opposition parties not dancing immediately to Johnson's tune on an October GE, why the rush Boris......hmmmm, something to do with Halloween perhaps? Let him stew in his own self made mess for a bit first, reflect a bit.
Get an extension to Art50, secure the no to No Deal position legally first as that's what parliament want, fairly sensible condition of agreeing GE imo as I dont agree No Deal is a bargaining position at all - it's actually worse on us than it is on EU, which is not leverage.
He may be PM but is now effectively in opposition because he's sacked off his own MPs. Self made situation (with Cummings steering).

Actually, not fishing at all. If the UK or EU came out now and ask for an extension till Christmas to rerun the referendum or a GE, fine. At present there's a possibility that the EU will hit the 31st Oct and say, "sorry you're out." Its not just Boris who might enforce a No Deal.

My point was to get a GE before the EU could say you're out.

As for Cummings; how much of it is truth? And Olly Robbins, May's advisor was equally forceful and conniving, allegedly.

 

[Blue in Munich]

We are risking it all on a bluff then?
What if the EU says, “OK Boris, we’ll extend the deadline and renegotiate”
Do you want him to say no and crash us out?
What are the risks of crashing out? Nobody knows and the price could be too high, personally prefer a deal.

According to reports, no we weren’t; elements of the EU were starting to bring pressure to bear for a new negotiated settlement. That’s now been completely undone by the HoC.

I don’t particularly want to leave with no deal, I’d be happy to stay in a tweaked trading bloc (but not a Federal republic) but I believe that when dealing with the likes of the EU you have to keep all options on the table in order to make them believe that you are serious.

 

[Foxholer]

We are discussing the PM, please explain how/why you or anyone believe that suddenly after nearly 3 years he can get a deal that his party failed to get.
Why should the rest of Parliament trust him, his own Party don’t.

From his pov....He doesn't particularly want a deal! He simply wants to Leave! The deal can come later - or maybe 'much later'.

As for trusting him...Remember how he got to be PM!