Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Deleted member 16999]

'Crashing out' and 'No deal' are artificial/emotional constructs. The UK would become a full member of the WTO as it was before becoming second class and represented by the EU: previously the EEC & CM. Numerous countries rely on the WTO structures and protocols and the UK can do so while it sorts out better 'deals' with other countries that could include the EU. The EU can't introduce penal conditions on the UK for two reason: firstly WTO doesn't allow it and secondly Germany and other desperately need trade to keep flowing because the EU's growth is a disaster.

If you want to do the sums the WTO rates are available - its the uncertainty that is costing time and money.

I’ve no doubt we’d recover from a No Deal scenario, but listening and reading what the CBI and other business’s plus the Government itself are saying, we (as a Country) are not ready to leave on 31st Oct imo.

 

[drdel]

I’ve no doubt we’d recover from a No Deal scenario, but listening and reading what the CBI and other business’s plus the Government itself are saying, we (as a Country) are not ready to leave on 31st Oct imo.

IMO there has been considerable planning in many sectors but you might be right that some aren't prepared.

What we seem to have forgotten is that the UK has legally declared we are leaving the EU. IMO we don't need to do a dam thing, 'Do Nothing' is always an option in negotiations and we can let the other side sweat because, if we plan, their members will need a future that involves the UK. PM Remainer May gave the EU the upper hand and allowed the UK to be talked down. Specifically by Barmier refusing to concurrently talk future trading arrangements and settlement. The UK should have stood firm and insisted it was not possible to split the future into two components. Art 50 even specifies the need for mutuality in the discussions.

Despite the pomp and self importance of small minded idiots like Bercow, Juncker, Corbyn, Johnson et al the EU and UK is a small sideshow in comparison to world security, business, finance, trade etc and there are very big businesses/organisation that drive the market forces and will adapt around this noise and, in all honesty, not one helluva lot will change. BMW, Mercedes will sell cars, BP Shell, HSBC etc will continue that's not to say that for some individuals there could be bad consequences but when change happens its always the small guys who are at the sharp end.

 

[SocketRocket]

I’ve no doubt we’d recover from a No Deal scenario, but listening and reading what the CBI and other business’s plus the Government itself are saying, we (as a Country) are not ready to leave on 31st Oct imo.

Carney at the BOE seems to think we are.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

I’ve no doubt we’d recover from a No Deal scenario, but listening and reading what the CBI and other business’s plus the Government itself are saying, we (as a Country) are not ready to leave on 31st Oct imo.

I don't know that we will ever be fully ready for a no deal exit. It is one of those. It is like being ready for your first child, should you have one, is the timing right, etc. You can do some preparations but ultimately there is an element of chaos theory and you have to roll with what happens. The massive issue is the ports. The govt needs to be piling all of its time and money into making sure they can cope. If they can keep the vehicles moving that will be massive, both practically and psychologically. If the ports become jammed then all sorts of problems will come from that. Keep them moving and some of the issues disappear.

The CBI doesn't want Brexit full stop, I can't blame them, but remember everything they say comes from that starting point.

My business has done some preparation work but we can't do any more, we have done all that we can within our own limitations. We will have to adapt, it will hurt, but what adaptions we will have to make we can not forsee now until it actually happens. Delaying another 3 months isn't going to help us be any more ready. It might make Christmas a bit cheerier though

 

[SocketRocket]

But still bad:

The Bank warned last November that a disorderly Brexit could wipe about 8% off GDP through a recession worse than the financial crisis, under its worst-case scenario for the impact of a no-deal Brexit.
However, Carney said the central bank now estimated GDP would decline by about 5.5% – still a sizeable economic shock, but a less damaging one. Joblessness would rapidly increase, taking the unemployment rate to more than twice its current level, at about 7%. Inflation would also more than double to 5.5%.
In a letter to the Treasury committee, published on Wednesday, Carney said plans by governments and companies on both sides of the Channel had helped to lower the dangers to the economy.

He said that was their worst case and over 30 years.

 

[Foxholer]

IMO there has been considerable planning in many sectors but you might be right that some aren't prepared.
...

And it's highly likely, imo, that many of those wouldn't be prepared whatever the date!

And some might even have taken the conscious decision that it's best for them to 'do nothing (or very little) until it happens'!

 

[Taz]

Ok which one of you lot did this

Soubry sent flowers for 'keeping up the fight'
Leader of the Independent Group for Change tweets...

 

[Deleted member 16999]

I don't know that we will ever be fully ready for a no deal exit. It is one of those. It is like being ready for your first child, should you have one, is the timing right, etc. You can do some preparations but ultimately there is an element of chaos theory and you have to roll with what happens. The massive issue is the ports. The govt needs to be piling all of its time and money into making sure they can cope. If they can keep the vehicles moving that will be massive, both practically and psychologically. If the ports become jammed then all sorts of problems will come from that. Keep them moving and some of the issues disappear.

The CBI doesn't want Brexit full stop, I can't blame them, but remember everything they say comes from that starting point.

My business has done some preparation work but we can't do any more, we have done all that we can within our own limitations. We will have to adapt, it will hurt, but what adaptions we will have to make we can not forsee now until it actually happens. Delaying another 3 months isn't going to help us be any more ready. It might make Christmas a bit cheerier though

Seriously, for how long though, how long until you may/would have to consider redundancies/reduced hours etc.

What about the sick or disabled, where is the guarantee medication will always be available.

I accept we/you/us would never be 100% ready, but expecting the EU to meet and agree changes mid Oct for a 31st Oct deadline is too risky.

Maybe if we hadn’t had a change of PM and summer recess etc it may of been, but not the way things have been done.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Carney at the BOE seems to think we are.

He's a Remoaner and not a word of his is to be trusted - his predictions are as good as yours or mine and he had been so very wrong in the past so how can we trust him.

I mean - how can we trust anyone who suggests now that (according to my Times today) things won't be so bad as previously feared (due to mitigation actions applied by EU, UK and others), and tell us that UK is still likely to plunge into a severe recession but GDP would only contract by 5.5% rather than the 8% previously forecast by the Bank. How can you believe such as Carney.

Ah yes - you can when it suits...and believe the bits that suit.

Which bit of his current predictions am I to believe - especially as I was advised not to believe anything that he previously predicted.

 

[IanM]

By jove they've got him!


Its a pity the EU has a monopoly on pharmaceuticals and loo roll!

 

[Foxholer]

Carney at the BOE seems to think we are.

From memory, you aren't much of a fan of his predictions. Not a criticism, just an observation!

 

[ColchesterFC]

He's a Remoaner and not a word of his is to be trusted - his predictions are as good as yours or mine and he had been so very wrong in the past so how can we trust him.

I mean - how can we trust anyone who suggests now that (according to my Times today) things won't be so bad as previously feared (due to mitigation actions applied by EU, UK and others), and tell us that UK is still likely to plunge into a severe recession but GDP would only contract by 5.5% rather than the 8% previously forecast by the Bank. How can you believe such as Carney.

Ah yes - you can when it suits...and believe the bits that suit.

Which bit of his current predictions am I to believe - especially as I was advised not to believe anything that he previously predicted.

Just do what you've done throughout this entire process. Believe everything negative and ignore anything that could be seen as positive.

Or you could do what I, and I'm sure many others have done, and realise that there's no point worrying about it as there is nothing any of us can do to alter the outcome. It will be whatever it will be and however it turns out we'll all just have to make the best of it. No point worrying about things you can't change.

 

[SocketRocket]

From memory, you aren't much of a fan of his predictions. Not a criticism, just an observation!

I just dont like him, even if he says its not as bad as he first predicted hes probably still over egging it.

 

[SocketRocket]

He's a Remoaner and not a word of his is to be trusted - his predictions are as good as yours or mine and he had been so very wrong in the past so how can we trust him.

I mean - how can we trust anyone who suggests now that (according to my Times today) things won't be so bad as previously feared (due to mitigation actions applied by EU, UK and others), and tell us that UK is still likely to plunge into a severe recession but GDP would only contract by 5.5% rather than the 8% previously forecast by the Bank. How can you believe such as Carney.

Ah yes - you can when it suits...and believe the bits that suit.

Which bit of his current predictions am I to believe - especially as I was advised not to believe anything that he previously predicted.

I repeated what he said, I didnt say I believed him. He is a remainer and says anything to blacken leaving. A bit like you actually.

 

[Foxholer]

He's a Remoaner and not a word of his is to be trusted - his predictions are as good as yours or mine and he had been so very wrong in the past so how can we trust him...

No! His predictions a better than 'yours or mine' because he has an entire chunk of his organisation doing modelling/analysis! That doesn't mean he's going to be right every time. And, of course the 'observer effect' applies to economics as well as physics!

...
I mean - how can we trust anyone who suggests now that (according to my Times today) things won't be so bad as previously feared (due to mitigation actions applied by EU, UK and others), and tell us that UK is still likely to plunge into a severe recession but GDP would only contract by 5.5% rather than the 8% previously forecast by the Bank. How can you believe such as Carney.

The fact that he's prepared to change shows, to me, that he's got a lot more integrity than politicians!

...
Which bit of his current predictions am I to believe - especially as I was advised not to believe anything that he previously predicted.

All of it - while remembering that it's a prediction, not fact!

 

[Foxholer]

...He is a remainer and says anything to blacken leaving...

His view is purely focused on the economic view. And from an economic view, he's almost certainly correct to prefer Remain. But that's not what the main thrust of Leave was/is about!

I don't believe he 'says anything to blacken leaving'. It's just that 'everything he says blackens (or maybe 'darkens') leaving'!

Of course, should UK finally leave, it'll be his job to do his best to mitigate the negative effects! And I pretty certain he will do it to the best of his ability!

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Seriously, for how long though, how long until you may/would have to consider redundancies/reduced hours etc.
We have seen a downturn already and have reduced hours to keep everyone in their jobs still, each member of staff has lost a day per week apiece. Next step would be redundancy for a member of staff. There is no fixed date for that, we react to the numbers and try to make educated guesses based on what our customers are telling us and their order patterns. We would try not to make redundancies at this point as things may settle down if a deal is achieved. A no deal is bad and a delay prolongs the uncertainty, encouraging customers in Europe to find EU based suppliers. Business hates uncertainty.

What about the sick or disabled, where is the guarantee medication will always be available.
Why would it not be available? This is a fear story for me. The NHS will still need medicine, pharma companies still want to sell it. There may be some delays at ports but a lorry full of pills sitting at Calais for an extra 2 days is not going to mean medication will nto be available in the UK. Goods are still going to move in and out of the UK. They may have a slightly longer delivery time, so the buyers will need to order a little earlier, and they may cost a little more to the NHS but they will still come in. This is a non story to scare people.

I accept we/you/us would never be 100% ready, but expecting the EU to meet and agree changes mid Oct for a 31st Oct deadline is too risky.
If we have an agreement, solve the Irish border and I think we have one, then we go into a 2 year transition period where nothing changes. The details for the future get ironed out during this period. A deal suits everyone which is why the threat of no deal is such a strong one

Maybe if we hadn’t had a change of PM and summer recess etc it may of been, but not the way things have been done
TM was part of the problem and had to go. She kept kicking the can down the road, as have successive PM's. Boris, in his clumsy way, has actually faced up to something that others have not had the bottle to do. Conservative splits have been papered over for years as PM have ignored making real decisions. He has said no more. Buffoon he may be but he may actually bring this saga to an end.
The summer recess plus party conferences don't help but they could have been cancelled. Saying that, would anything have changed? We have seen again that parliament is deadlocked. We need an election to unlock parliament. Getting close to a deadline without a deal is always scary but it is how the EU often seems to work. If we delay again then to what purpose? An election yes, but other than that what would change that warrants an extension? Do you see any MP's changing their minds?
.

It is a scary old time and frankly if it was all called off it would suit me perfectly.

 

[MegaSteve]

Aside from backstabber Hammond how many other cabinet members have been colluding with Brussels... Guessing we'll never know...

 

[Deleted member 16999]

It is a scary old time and frankly if it was all called off it would suit me perfectly.

Sad to hear of people’s livelihoods already being affected.

It maybe a non-scare story for yourself, but everyone is different and the messages come from local pharmacists both in shops and hospitals near me are not as relaxed.

We only go into a prepared transition period with a deal.

So if they knew she was part of the problem why did the tories keep supporting her and giving her their backing? Was it because they were putting their best interests before the Country

 

[Papas1982]

Sad to hear of people’s livelihoods already being affected.

It maybe a non-scare story for yourself, but everyone is different and the messages come from local pharmacists both in shops and hospitals near me are not as relaxed.

We only go into a prepared transition period with a deal.

So if they knew she was part of the problem why did the tories keep supporting her and giving her their backing? Was it because they were putting their best interests before the Country

Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

Imo long gone are the days when most of em consider anything but this......