Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Mudball]

Downing Street has confirmed Theresa May will meet Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon today after meeting Jeremy Corbyn

Corbyn will walk out of the room as Sturgeon is not leader of opposition

 

[Tashyboy]

Interesting article in the Irish press, seems quite a sensible approach to me.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/break...rexit-no-tariffs-for-irish-border-910627.html

D4S, that piece was from March 13th, and it makes a good read, there don't seem to be a lot for us to worry about if anything. But, and I am repeating myself here, it also says that 87% of goods imported from the world will be tariff free. At the moment whilst being tied into EU trade laws, it is currently 80%. We are paying to have tariffs on less goods. Why? Leave with no deal, save £39 billion( if that figure is to be believed). Yet get more goods tariff free. How's that a bad deal. Some of the tariffs that will be placed on goods, are there to protect British jobs. How's that a bad deal?
Finally I think there's only gonna be me read it D4 S 👍👍

 

[Deleted member 16999]

fully agree with this. I have absolutely zero doubt in my mind that if remain had won that not a single media outlet would have wanted to spend 2.5 years reporting about the subject and desperately try to overturn the result.

What would of they reported on?
You’d of had the right wing media screaming foul and the left wing media praising the EU, ie, exactly what we had for 40+ years prior to the vote.
Surely when we voted we all knew we wouldn’t leave the next day if Leave won.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

Wonder which ends of the pantomime horse Corbyn and Sturgeon will be in.. 🤔

I hope this is in fun, TM’s behaviour has been far worse than those 2, she’s wrote the script.

 

[bluewolf]

fully agree with this. I have absolutely zero doubt in my mind that if remain had won that not a single media outlet would have wanted to spend 2.5 years reporting about the subject and desperately try to overturn the result.

I'm intrigued by this comment (it's been made several times previously as well).

The Leave referendum didn't happen in a vacuum. It happened because a significant number of people had spent years constantly whinging about us being in the EU. Political parties had been started purely to campaign about leaving the EU. Several (most) Newspapers had spent years attacking the EU.
All sound vaguely familiar?

 

[MegaSteve]

She may be responsible for quite a lot of it. But for me, the main finger of blame should be pointed straight at those on the Vote Leave side who persuaded everyone that we'd be leaving with a great deal, the greatest deal ever negotiated.

We'd hold all the cards, the German car manufacturers and French cheese and wine makers would force the EU to give us the greatest deal since records began. There'd be nothing but sunlit uplands and God save the Queen.

People believed it, and voted accordingly, then all those prominent Leavers slunk away, waiting for the truth to hit the fan. Knowing that TM was in an absolute No Win situation.

Once she's ousted, then watch them come slinking back in. Pretending that they had nothing to do with the mess.

This shitshow belongs firmly to Farage, Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Banks, Wigmore, Baker etc. They own it.

As I understand it part of the reason gilet jaunes have taken to the streets is that Macron has copped a deaf 'un to their concerns and supported Brussels... Typical, therefore, of the 'political classes' their agenda over the people... Clowns the lot of them... Sooner we can divulge ourselves of all self-serving bureaucracy the better...

 

[Blue in Munich]

I'm intrigued by this comment (it's been made several times previously as well).

The Leave referendum didn't happen in a vacuum. It happened because a significant number of people had spent years constantly whinging about us being in the EU. Political parties had been started purely to campaign about leaving the EU. Several (most) Newspapers had spent years attacking the EU.
All sound vaguely familiar?

I think that had Remain won it would have been the case that Leave would have been told you’ve had your chance, the country didn’t want it, we’re staying in, get over it. I wouldn’t necessarily disagree that a few years down the line the rumblings of discontent would resurface but in the immediate aftermath, and after a short post mortem and street parties by the Remainers there would be little more said in the press and media. It would take something like the collapse of one of the other net contributors economies exposing us to financial liability for it to all kick off again to the same extent. But that’s not going to happen, is it...

 

[Foxholer]

In what way, both CBI and TUC have spoken out against a hard brexit so those representing both business and workers think a softer option is better. Yes, not leaving would be ideal but that is not a real option. Plus this does not have to be a fixed position. Why is it better to try and push over a wall rather than remove it over time, brick by brick

Check out this article https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47773982

Whatever anyone may think about any (perceived) BBC bias, this area of the Beeb is a great resource - and purely 'fact based'.

Another good guide on 'soft Brexit' (another great resource, (but) restricted to Brexit) ..https://ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/what-is-soft-brexit/

As for the push over vs brick by brick removal analogy....the problem is that, analogously, there's also a more powerful bunch of folk repairing and extending it in such a way that it will completely surround and subsume us!

 

[User62651]

So has May finally had enough of her own party?

She's been frustrated largely by the Brexiteers in getting her deal done.

So now she's given 2 fingers to them and said 'sod it I'm leaving the job anyway, you all hate me, you wont help me so I'll ask commie Corbyn over there instead for his help and we'll leave EU but with a watered down soft Brexit. Stick that in your pipe and smoke it.'

After 3 years of personal PM torture she gets the last laugh? - seems that way.

 

[Kellfire]

Why shouldn’t the PM discuss the best way forward with the leader of the opposition and the most powerful politician in Scotland?

Sounds like the sort of thing that should endear her to us, not something to belittle her for.

 

[Blue in Munich]

Why shouldn’t the PM discuss the best way forward with the leader of the opposition and the most powerful politician in Scotland?

Sounds like the sort of thing that should endear her to us, not something to belittle her for.

Sounds like something she should have done a couple of years ago (assuming she didn't).

 

[User62651]

Why shouldn’t the PM discuss the best way forward with the leader of the opposition and the most powerful politician in Scotland?

Sounds like the sort of thing that should endear her to us, not something to belittle her for.

Think the thinking is she should have done that in summer 2017 after losing her parliamentary majority after calling the GE solely as a means of seeking a mandate for her version of Brexit, any other policy she'd have got through fine with a majority of 30 or so she inherited. She's now been boxed in so tightly she has no moves left.

 

[Mudball]

Why shouldn’t the PM discuss the best way forward with the leader of the opposition and the most powerful politician in Scotland?

Sounds like the sort of thing that should endear her to us, not something to belittle her for.

Agree... Yesterday FT article was scathing about her. Their view was it is a good move but about 2 years late.. She now puts Corbyn in a corner + ERG in another corner and can now blame them for failing to deliver the will of the people.

 

[Hobbit]

WE WERE PROMISED TO LEAVE WITH A DEAL.

NO WE WEREN'T.

There was an expectation of a good deal but there was never any promise of one.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

NO WE WEREN'T.

There was an expectation of a good deal but there was never any promise of one.

What did the literature say? How many people have quoted Cameron’s leaflet or the Bus or the posters etc!
Who was Joe Public meant to believe.

Does the screenshot of the leaflet not state:

We will negotiate the terms of a new deal before we start any legal process to leave.

So agreed, no expectation of a good deal or infact a no deal, but certainly a deal.

 

[Hobbit]

What did the literature say? How many people have quoted Cameron’s leaflet or the Bus or the posters etc!
Who was Joe Public meant to believe.

Does the screenshot of the leaflet not state:

We will negotiate the terms of a new deal before we start any legal process to leave.

So agreed, no expectation of a good deal or infact a no deal, but certainly a deal.

And there is a deal on the table. Looks like someone has negotiated a deal then.

And it being a good deal also relies on the other side making it an acceptable deal. You can’t blame the U.K. for the deal offered. That is what the EU were willing to offer. But you can blame the U.K. for accepting it up to now.

 

[ScienceBoy]

How on Earth are we going to get out of this Bredlock?

 

[Deleted member 16999]

And there is a deal on the table. Looks like someone has negotiated a deal then.

And it being a good deal also relies on the other side making it an acceptable deal. You can’t blame the U.K. for the deal offered. That is what the EU were willing to offer. But you can blame the U.K. for accepting it up to now.

I think you’ve missed why I was responding to people, it was in answer to those saying leave meant no deal.

I, as you know, voted Leave, partly on the basis of accepting we’d have to have a deal were both sides would be winners and losers.

Her current deal is a bad deal, so we should strive, imo, for a better deal rather than accepting a No Deal, which looked increasingly ever likely last week.

 

[IanM]

...and I am looking for one of the experts to tell me how you negotiate when the "walk away" option is openly removed from the menu?? You can tell most MPs have never had real jobs!

Maybe start by saying... OK "Merks" how many "Mercs" do you want to sell post Brexit?

 

[Hobbit]

I think you’ve missed why I was responding to people, it was in answer to those saying leave meant no deal.

I, as you know, voted Leave, partly on the basis of accepting we’d have to have a deal were both sides would be winners and losers.

Her current deal is a bad deal, so we should strive, imo, for a better deal rather than accepting a No Deal, which looked increasingly ever likely last week.

A few questions I've tried to answer for myself is "what is No Deal?" What are the metrics of No Deal? What are the tariffs associated with No Deal? What "rest of the world" tariffs would end, mitigating No Deal?

We've heard a lot of noise coming from politicians and experts that No Deal would lead to armageddon. Define it. Give me fact based numbers, e.g. a typical household weekly shop would have x tariffs added and y tariffs deducted. What MRA's would be prioritised by both the EU and the UK to save jobs both sides of the channel, e.g. BMW shipping parts backwards and forwards - there's a mutual interdependency there.

I've looked at the EU's own website on tariffs. It is nowhere near armageddon. A lot of products don't have any tariffs, and a lot of products only have 2.5% tariff. 25p in £10 isn't earth shattering, and then mitigated with dropping tariffs from the rest of the world.

I don't doubt there'll be ripples and some fallout, but armageddon...? I do believe some of the negatives but I also think its been a phenomenal propaganda exercise, and con, by the Remainers and the EU.

And if at the end of it all its walk away without agreeing the current deal I fully expect deals would be negotiated very soon after. No Deal isn't a full stop/end off, its only one single point in the whole ongoing process.