Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

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I'm now predicting article 50 extended for a year and TMay gone by the end of the week.
Do you think the EU would accept a delay? I suppose if we keep paying in they will be happy.

I hope you are right. I do think when you have a standoff a change of negotiator / manager / leader etc is often what is needed. A new face, not bound down by baggage and red lines. TM has been dreadful full stop but even if not a change may have been required anyway to unlock all of this.
 
She's goosed following the release of the legal advice. Time to pack your bags Theresa.

I think it is slightly embarrassing seeing the number of ministers, Vradaker etc saying the deal is different when it plainly is not. They are treating people as though they are utterly stupid (I know, I know, open goal there)

I think it was an attempt at a coordinated effort by the government and the EU to spin it as such. Possibly TMay saying to the EU that this is my last chance and if I fail you'll be dealing with someone else, possibly more eurosceptic, so throw me a bone here. The EU have kind of played along but I expect that will crack in the next few days once it gets voted down. Trouble is that there is a high percentage of lawyers in parliament so they will see through that pretty quickly.
 
Do you think the EU would accept a delay? I suppose if we keep paying in they will be happy.

I hope you are right. I do think when you have a standoff a change of negotiator / manager / leader etc is often what is needed. A new face, not bound down by baggage and red lines. TM has been dreadful full stop but even if not a change may have been required anyway to unlock all of this.

I suspect if it was that or no deal then they'd do it. But I expect they want assurances that something different would happen in that time and not more of the UK parliament not finding a majority for anything.
 
I think it was an attempt at a coordinated effort by the government and the EU to spin it as such. Possibly TMay saying to the EU that this is my last chance and if I fail you'll be dealing with someone else, possibly more eurosceptic, so throw me a bone here. The EU have kind of played along but I expect that will crack in the next few days once it gets voted down. Trouble is that there is a high percentage of lawyers in parliament so they will see through that pretty quickly.
I think they have done. A number of lawyers, not MP's, posted this morning that nothing had changed and the UK could not leave of it's own accord, no reason to expect any others to read it differently. I expected Cox to try to bluff it out a little more but he gave a straight answer fairly quickly to that simple question that will have scuppered the deal.
 
If we do have a 12 month extension do we then field candidates in the EU elections in June? And Junker has already said that this is the second chance, there won't be a third.
 
If we do have a 12 month extension do we then field candidates in the EU elections in June? And Junker has already said that this is the second chance, there won't be a third.

I think we do, which is the last thing they'd want, assuming a load of leave candidates get in.
 
With speculation of a Brexit extension growing by the day, there are increasing suspicions that the UK and EU will stitch something up to avoid the hugely embarrassing spectacle of the UK taking part in the next European Parliament Elections, even if Article 50 has been extended past when the elections are due to take place in May. Farage will be the big winner – the Tories will be routed…
Leave Means Leave
have now served legal notice on the Government to notify them that they will be taking legal action to ensure that voters can still take part in the European elections if the UK has failed to leave by that time. LML founder Richard Tice warns that “we cannot be in a situation where we become trapped in the EU without a say.” They have served a ‘pre-action’ notice to David Lidington today, Lidington now has a week to respond…
 
Watched Liddington answering the Brexit Select Committee this morning. Not taken much notice of him before but he came over very well when answering questions.
 
The ERG star chamber (and yes that is a real thing and not something from the latest Star Wars film) have said they will reject the deal. DUP expected to follow shortly. Looks like it is a dead parrot. Paddy Power now offering 9 to one on it passing and 50 to one on on it being rejected. Time to pile in shortly......
 
With speculation of a Brexit extension growing by the day, there are increasing suspicions that the UK and EU will stitch something up to avoid the hugely embarrassing spectacle of the UK taking part in the next European Parliament Elections, even if Article 50 has been extended past when the elections are due to take place in May. Farage will be the big winner – the Tories will be routed…
Leave Means Leave
have now served legal notice on the Government to notify them that they will be taking legal action to ensure that voters can still take part in the European elections if the UK has failed to leave by that time. LML founder Richard Tice warns that “we cannot be in a situation where we become trapped in the EU without a say.” They have served a ‘pre-action’ notice to David Lidington today, Lidington now has a week to respond…

The article says that Farage's latest attempt to fail to get any votes to become a proper MP/political party is more popular than UKIP. But I'd argue that seeing as UKIP is now virtually a sub-committee of the National Front it's no great achievement. Still, I would actually like to see PR and parties like Farages new one, and indeed any others, get some seats if they get enough votes. As the current system first past the post system doesn't seem to be getting us very far.

But whatever happens let's not hope the Tories get scared of Farage encroaching on their territory and fearing losing MPs or votes to them and doing something stupid without properly thinking it through. As what can possibly go wrong with that...
 
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Today surely, with a, "I've done all I can" speech.

There's 2 more votes to go yet after today to ensure complete chaos and hit peak constitutional omnishambles. If you're going to go down at least leave the maximum carnage behind before you sail off into the sunset running through wheat fields.
 
General election now sounding a lot more likely if the vote goes down tonight. But my god, you'll have to go a long way down the ballot paper to find a party that is not incompetent, invisible or mostly racist/antisemitic. I wonder if I'll have the chance to vote for Soubry's party as I'm in her constituency. Or if not let's hope the Greens field a candidate around me.
 
General election now sounding a lot more likely if the vote goes down tonight. But my god, you'll have to go a long way down the ballot paper to find a party that is not incompetent, invisible or mostly racist/antisemitic. I wonder if I'll have the chance to vote for Soubry's party as I'm in her constituency. Or if not let's hope the Greens field a candidate around me.

If the current 650 are standing I think I'll abstain
 
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