Doon frae Troon
Ryder Cup Winner
I think that even with the most inept Tory party ever [well maybees excepting Sir Alex Douglas-Home] Bonkin Mad Boris is still a bridge too far.
Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!
- Thread starter drdel
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Hacker Khan
Yurt Dwelling, Yoghurt Knitter
Also Gove has been eerily quiet and nowhere to be seen recently, desperately trying to distance himself from the current omnishambles and ready to ride in as the saviour to fix it all if needed. Plus Javid has been dog whistling to the more hard right of the party to no doubt try and get their votes. They are all lining up...
Incidentally I've been enjoying the Brexitcast podcast from the BBC recently. Fully appreciate that as I have recommended it and it is from the BBC will mean certain people will never listen to it in a million years, but I find it very good. You basically have 4 very well connected BBC reporters with both the EU and the UK parliament talking over what might happen and what it all means. In the current one they do admit that no one knows but they do put forwards some interesting perspectives from the point of the EU and the government using their insider knowledge and information from well connected sources. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05299nl
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U
User62651
Guest
If Commons vote down May's deal again this week and then next day vote down No Deal again (but binding this time), that leaves an extension to Brexit as the only option the govt will consider - is that right? So buy some more time despite nearly 3 years of negotiation, and kick the can down the road.
Some remainers will call for a 2nd referendum but Govt won't go down that road it seems so that option is ruled out.
If backstop remains the main reason for no agreement and neither side will budge on that issue and with May reliant upon DUP votes (who will not back an agreement that treats NI separately from rUK), then we're stuck in limbo until another General Election, when parliamentary arithmetic might improve for Conservatives if they can get a modest majority (under a new leader maybe and in light of Corbyn's unelectability) so can get a deal over the line, aren't we?
So do we wait until 2022 in limbo? Or does May call another GE early and step down beforehand?
If we do have to wait unitl 2022 for another GE, during that time are we still in the EU (because we voted down No Deal and can't get a deal either) by default or are we out? Or somewhere in between? Confusing.
The 2 most obvious resolutions to me are either -
Is that a fair summary of where we are?
Some remainers will call for a 2nd referendum but Govt won't go down that road it seems so that option is ruled out.
If backstop remains the main reason for no agreement and neither side will budge on that issue and with May reliant upon DUP votes (who will not back an agreement that treats NI separately from rUK), then we're stuck in limbo until another General Election, when parliamentary arithmetic might improve for Conservatives if they can get a modest majority (under a new leader maybe and in light of Corbyn's unelectability) so can get a deal over the line, aren't we?
So do we wait until 2022 in limbo? Or does May call another GE early and step down beforehand?
If we do have to wait unitl 2022 for another GE, during that time are we still in the EU (because we voted down No Deal and can't get a deal either) by default or are we out? Or somewhere in between? Confusing.
The 2 most obvious resolutions to me are either -
- leave with No Deal on 29th March and see what happens or
- have a peoples vote/2nd referendum (would require a few months lead in period though).
Is that a fair summary of where we are?
Hacker Khan
Yurt Dwelling, Yoghurt Knitter
To be honest I think all bets are off, no one knows anymore and what we thought we knew is worth nothing nowadays in the current political climate. So nothing would surprise me.
Hacker Khan
Yurt Dwelling, Yoghurt Knitter
If Commons vote down May's deal again this week and then next day vote down No Deal again (but binding this time), that leaves an extension to Brexit as the only option the govt will consider - is that right? So buy some more time despite nearly 3 years of negotiation, and kick the can down the road.
Some remainers will call for a 2nd referendum but Govt won't go down that road it seems so that option is ruled out.
If backstop remains the main reason for no agreement and neither side will budge on that issue and with May reliant upon DUP votes (who will not back an agreement that treats NI separately from rUK), then we're stuck in limbo until another General Election, when parliamentary arithmetic might improve for Conservatives if they can get a modest majority (under a new leader maybe and in light of Corbyn's unelectability) so can get a deal over the line, aren't we?
So do we wait until 2022 in limbo? Or does May call another GE early and step down beforehand?
If we do have to wait unitl 2022 for another GE, during that time are we still in the EU (because we voted down No Deal and can't get a deal either) by default or are we out? Or somewhere in between? Confusing.
The 2 most obvious resolutions to me are either -
Neither looks like it will be on the table after this week's Commons votes though - MPs wont allow No Deal and May won't allow a 2nd referendum.
- leave with No Deal on 29th March and see what happens or
- have a peoples vote/2nd referendum (would require a few months lead in period though).
Is that a fair summary of where we are?
They could vote that down leaving room for a third meaningful vote the week after where Tmay will try and get her deal through yet again. Also the EU have to agree to the extension and there are reports that they may not agree to an extra 3 months if they think all that will happen is that we will just continue to not get a majority to do anything.
ColchesterFC
Journeyman Pro
It's all part of May's/EUs cunning plan. The EU obviously like the deal as it is as they all agreed to it. Therefore if it gets voted down again and No Deal gets taken off the table by the HoC the EU can simply refuse to extend Article 50 and all of a sudden there might be a lot of MPs who will decide that May's deal isn't so bad after all and is certainly a lot better than leaving with No Deal and it gets voted through by default at the third attempt.
Mudball
Assistant Pro
Glad to see all the Leavers now indulging in 'Project Fear'.. .. 'Vote for the Deal or else Brexit will be lost forever', 'People will never vote for you again', 'Will of the people'..
'If you dont vote, Jeremy will be in power'., blah blah blah..
.. everyone knows that the MPs give two hoots to the country but are more focussed on keeping their jobs .. (atleast till the next GE).
Maybot could sink a few ships if she calls for a GE at some point this week. Catch everyone off guard and also EU will allow a longer extension as the UK situation has changed. In the meanwhile, country keeps motoring along like a yob on his way home after a few Special brew on a Friday night
She could also withdraw A50 unilaterally.. but nothing changes then either
'If you dont vote, Jeremy will be in power'., blah blah blah..
.. everyone knows that the MPs give two hoots to the country but are more focussed on keeping their jobs .. (atleast till the next GE).
Maybot could sink a few ships if she calls for a GE at some point this week. Catch everyone off guard and also EU will allow a longer extension as the UK situation has changed. In the meanwhile, country keeps motoring along like a yob on his way home after a few Special brew on a Friday night
She could also withdraw A50 unilaterally.. but nothing changes then either
ColchesterFC
Journeyman Pro
Wouldn't we automatically leave with No Deal if a GE is called? Parliament would be suspended and the campaigns would start so it wouldn't be possible to hold a vote on May's deal, against a No Deal or for an extension to Article 50 so we would leave by default on 29th March.
Old Skier
Tour Winner
First thing they would have to do is change legislation because as it stands at the moment we are out at the end of March no matter what they pontificate over this week. Looks like some long nights in the chamber.
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
As I posted earlier the current position in law is that we leave the EU on the 29th March. The Europiean withdraw bill was given Royal Assent and was Passed by both houses, a vote in parliament taking no deal off the table will not change things, only another bill that goes through all stages of debate and vote in both houses that recinds the current law and replaces it with something else would stop us leaving. Passing new law is a lengthy process that cannot be cut short for valid reasons. This is the way I understand the system works and I cannot see how it can be bypassed. I am surprised no one is picking up on this.
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
Isnt it about time you got a bit more grown up about this and stopped this silly mudsliging about Leavers v Remainers and just accepted others have a different opinion, it souds like a kid calling names in a playground.
Foxholer
Blackballed
Wrong! Legislation can get (and has got) through The Commons in a single day; likewise through The Lords. Definitely not what is meant to happen (for those 'valid reasons'), so only in emergency and likely needing agreement by Opposition leadership too!
I don't see it happening in this case.
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Old Skier
Tour Winner
You'll most probably find, giving this Parliaments record, they have forgotten all about any legal requirement.
Hacker Khan
Yurt Dwelling, Yoghurt Knitter
Doesn't sound it's that difficult to do from a legislative point of view if all parties agree to it. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47031312 Politically is a different kettle of fish.
Doon frae Troon
Ryder Cup Winner
That poor old can must be pretty dented and rusty by now, I can't see it lasting another 18 days
Leftie
Tour Winner
ColchesterFC
Journeyman Pro
ColchesterFC
Journeyman Pro
Doon frae Troon
Ryder Cup Winner
EU going to charge £1b a month if Tory party infighting causes a delay to Brexit.
ColchesterFC
Journeyman Pro
Isn't that pretty much what our monthly fees are anyway? (Give or take the odd million)
EDIT - from FullFact.org.....
"£350 million is roughly what we would pay to the EU budget without the rebate. The UK actually paid closer to £250 million a week."
So that's roughly £1 billion a month. Doesn't seem extreme for us to continue paying what we're currently paying. I assume that this would also continue during any transition period.
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