Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[IanM]

Odd... according to BBC

In 2017 the UK made an estimated gross contribution (after the rebate) of £13.0 billion.

so, your figure gross was actually net of rebate...according to the BBC.

 

[MikeB]

"The club may give you shoes and balls..."

Some easy maths.

2017;

UK contributed £14bn
UK received £5.6bn as a rebate.
UK net contribution £8.4bn

EU spent £6.3bn on projects in the UK - matched by £6.3bn by the UK... its a 50% subsidy on EU projects, which the UK has to match to receive the funding. £8.4bn minus £6.3bn, the UK actual contribution was £2.1bn

There are a number of other funding streams from the EU, e.g. CAP & Eramus, and is again matched by the UK but doesn't run to billions. Its that at this point leaving the EU looks absolutely bl00dy stupid. The UK has averaged a further (unmatched) funding of £5.4bn in each of the last 3 years.

THE UK IS ACTUALLY A NET RECEIVER OF EU MONEY (£3.3bn). The EU is already paying for the bus.

The financial reason for leaving the EU doesn't add up. Politically, thats whatever people choose.

Fairytale accounting, so if we are net receivers can you tell us which nations actually are net givers?

 

[Foxholer]

"The club may give you shoes and balls..."

Some easy maths.

2017;

UK contributed £14bn
UK received £5.6bn as a rebate.
UK net contribution £8.4bn

EU spent £6.3bn on projects in the UK - matched by £6.3bn by the UK... its a 50% subsidy on EU projects, which the UK has to match to receive the funding. £8.4bn minus £6.3bn, the UK actual contribution was £2.1bn

There are a number of other funding streams from the EU, e.g. CAP & Eramus, and is again matched by the UK but doesn't run to billions. Its that at this point leaving the EU looks absolutely bl00dy stupid. The UK has averaged a further (unmatched) funding of £5.4bn in each of the last 3 years.

THE UK IS ACTUALLY A NET RECEIVER OF EU MONEY (£3.3bn). The EU is already paying for the bus.

The financial reason for leaving the EU doesn't add up. Politically, thats whatever people choose.

How come this wasn't loudly and clearly broadcast as part of the Remain argument?

 

[jp5]

Wouldn't have made any difference. Much easier and more alluring to promise unicorns.

 

[robinthehood]

How come this wasn't loudly and clearly broadcast as part of the Remain argument?

To big to fit on a bus

 

[Hobbit]

Fairytale accounting, so if we are net receivers can you tell us which nations actually are net givers?

Really?

Firstly the source is the House of Commons briefing papers, not some rag of a Red Top. Secondly, the extra money, again detailed in those briefing papers, is from the EIB that has negotiated loans from investment banks.

Just as the UK has ran a deficit for years, using money its borrowed, the EU does the same thing. But if you want to question it I suggest you look it up rather than dismissing it out of hand.

 

[Taz]

Hi @jeremycorbyn a cross party group of MPs would like to meet you too & tell you all about @peoplesvote_uk - it’s the only way out of #BrexitChaos oh and it’s also your party conference policy.

 

[Foxholer]

Really?

Firstly the source is the House of Commons briefing papers, not some rag of a Red Top. Secondly, the extra money, again detailed in those briefing papers, is from the EIB that has negotiated loans from investment banks.

Just as the UK has ran a deficit for years, using money its borrowed, the EU does the same thing. But if you want to question it I suggest you look it up rather than dismissing it out of hand.

Got a link? This (November 2018) HoC Library Briefing suggests differently! Contribution after rebate (£) of 13Bn, 4.1Bn of public sector (matched by UK). 1-1.5Bn 'competitive' funding. So still 7-7.5Bn contribution.

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7886

 

[drdel]

"The club may give you shoes and balls..."

Some easy maths.

2017;

UK contributed £14bn
UK received £5.6bn as a rebate.
UK net contribution £8.4bn

EU spent £6.3bn on projects in the UK - matched by £6.3bn by the UK... its a 50% subsidy on EU projects, which the UK has to match to receive the funding. £8.4bn minus £6.3bn, the UK actual contribution was £2.1bn

There are a number of other funding streams from the EU, e.g. CAP & Eramus, and is again matched by the UK but doesn't run to billions. Its that at this point leaving the EU looks absolutely bl00dy stupid. The UK has averaged a further (unmatched) funding of £5.4bn in each of the last 3 years.

THE UK IS ACTUALLY A NET RECEIVER OF EU MONEY (£3.3bn). The EU is already paying for the bus.

The financial reason for leaving the EU doesn't add up. Politically, thats whatever people choose.

While I usually agree with much of what you post I'm sorry but, on this occasion, you need to redo your economics - there's some double counting and most of the stuff you suggest is being 'given' to the UK is either loans or 'grants' with conditions that require proportionate spending with EU members. Also a significant amount of the 'matched' funding is not from UK government but from the UK and International business community.

 

[Mudball]

Got a link? This (November 2018) HoC Library Briefing suggests differently! Contribution after rebate (£) of 13Bn, 4.1Bn of public sector (matched by UK). 1-1.5Bn 'competitive' funding. so still 7-7.5Bn contribution.

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7886

You are right (never ashamed to admit). The Briefing paper brings the figure to around 7-7.5.

However, unsurprising to add to the confusion, there there is another briefing paper puts the figures of direct funding at 6.3b per year.
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7847

I am sure there is a mandarin out there who knows how these numbers add up and what is the real truth. Otherwise we can always get Ms Abbott on the task

 

[Foxholer]

You are right (never ashamed to admit). The Briefing paper brings the figure to around 7-7.5.

However, unsurprising to add to the confusion, there there is another briefing paper puts the figures of direct funding at 6.3b per year.
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7847

I am sure there is a mandarin out there who knows how these numbers add up and what is the real truth. Otherwise we can always get Ms Abbott on the task

Would the fact that the 6.3Bn in that paper is Euros (not Pounds) have anything to do with the anomoly? According to that report 6.3Bn Euros = about 5.5Bn Pounds. Seems a bit too much of a coincidence to me!
And I suspect that the one I quoted is a later one - the number (7886) is certainly higher than the one you quote (7847).

 

[Mudball]

Would the fact that the 6.3Bn in that paper is Euros (not Pounds) have anything to do with the anomoly? According to that report 6.3Bn Euros = about 5.5Bn Pounds. Seems a bit too much of a coincidence to me!
And I suspect that the one I quoted is a later one - the number (7886) is certainly higher than the one you quote (7847).

i read the first paper and as i said, it shows net contribution at 8 billion-ish. This only includes the direct rebate and govt funding. It puts the competitive funding at about 1-1.5b per year. Then saw the second paper which puts a different spin on it. BTW, the full reports make better reading than the bite size website

Net-Net, I never claimed that we are receivers - i would not expect UK to be a receiver. My point was that we cant expect to be part of a club and not pay into it. Also Maybots bribe to towns also falls way short of what they already get out of the EU.

 

[Foxholer]

i read the first paper and as i said, it shows net contribution at 8 billion-ish. This only includes the direct rebate and govt funding. It puts the competitive funding at about 1-1.5b per year. Then saw the second paper which puts a different spin on it. BTW, the full reports make better reading than the bite size website

Net-Net, I never claimed that we are receivers - i would not expect UK to be a receiver. My point was that we cant expect to be part of a club and not pay into it. Also Maybots bribe to towns also falls way short of what they already get out of the EU.

Indeed, both confirm, to me, that UK is a net contributer - as I always believed!

There ARE some 'members of the club' who ARE, currently, net 'receivers'! That's recognised and is, I believe, quite reasonable as it is meant to ease the 'normalisation' process for the recent enlargement of the bloc. However, that cost was leaped upon by Brexiteers as a (strong) reason to leave. I see it as 'indirect overseas aid administered by a third party'.

And Yes, May's funding of towns to replace that from EU is pathetically small!

 

[patricks148]

just been listening to this quite amusing

 

[Hacker Khan]

just been listening to this quite amusing

Brexit will fix potholes. Genius.

 

[Mudball]

just been listening to this quite amusing

This was comedy gold... the caller (while not a representative of all leavers) sums up some of the attitudes that is dividing the country..

The best bit was brexit fixing potholes

 

[drdel]

So Jaguar LandRover has decided to ask customers for a 10% surcharge in the event of a 'no deal'.

Now I know Porsche has already written to customers with new orders to the same effect but the last time I looked JLR was assembling cars in the UK. Suppose there were no UK contractors so a significant part of their supply chain is dragging in sub-assembles etc some of these might be subject to import tax. However the proportion of the showroom price incurring WTO tax would (I'd guess) be about a third, max. So your £100k Range Rover would only cost JLR another £3k to £4k at best.

Nice little earner by the back door!!

 

[Hacker Khan]

So Jaguar LandRover has decided to ask customers for a 10% surcharge in the event of a 'no deal'.

Now I know Porsche has already written to customers with new orders to the same effect but the last time I looked JLR was assembling cars in the UK. Suppose there were no UK contractors so a significant part of their supply chain is dragging in sub-assembles etc some of these might be subject to import tax. However the proportion of the showroom price incurring WTO tax would (I'd guess) be about a third, max. So your £100k Range Rover would only cost JLR another £3k to £4k at best.

Nice little earner by the back door!!

Like the fact you state you have a supposition, a might and also a guess in there, but you are sure it would only cost them another 4K at best. Brexitomics at its best.

 

[drdel]

Like the fact you state you have a supposition, a might and also a guess in there, but you are sure it would only cost them another 4K at best. Brexitomics at its best.

Don't be a wally, its just a bit of idle banter - I never claimed or pretended great accuracy and openly stated I'd made assumptions. The main point is how JLR a UK assembler claims a 10% hike when importing some items and Porsche demands exactly the same 10% uplift whereas they would be an importer of a finished product !!

I'd respectively suggest you check my numbers and come up with a better quantified challenge. Having spent many years analysing and modelling supply chains I'm willing to bet my 'fag packet' estimate's not far adrift. If you have a more accurate figure then a constructive response might be to share it.

 

[USER1999]

I thought JLR were relocating to Slovakia with sn EU grant?