Sweep
Journeyman Pro
Told you 😀
Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!
- Thread starter drdel
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I could have posted this in Random Irritations but I don't want that thread to become politicised:
We have a key customer in Germany. They have contacted me today to advise if we go out with no deal or even a deal that includes tariffs, then they will no longer buy from us. They don't want the hassle of paperwork, additional costs from tariffs.. They have only a few UK suppliers but they are telling all of them the same thing.
Other customers are starting to place orders to cover the leave date plus extra to avoid duties / tariffs. That is okay if one customer orders 3 months worth of stock in one go but when more and more do then it stuffs me for raw materials and prodcution time. I'm trying to be as helpful as possible during this sensitive time for UK companies but I can't fit 50 days of production into 30 days.
One UK customer, actually about 50 miles from where we are, rang up to ask how Brexit will affect us supplying them. 'It wont, there are no issues.' 'Should we order earlier and take more in?' ' No, there is no need, your products contain no EU raw materials, we are 50 miles away so there are no tariffs' 'Are you sure we don't need to order more?'
Times are starting to get a little stressful.
I wonder what their position will be if the FX rate goes in their favour, or a change in Corporation Tax allows you to drop your prices? Seems a bit odd that they've made a decision before looking at all the factors.
robinthehood
Hacker
Ah standard brexit thread reply, tell a porky or 2 , make it mildly insulting and hit post.
drdel
Tour Rookie
Some examples (if you're serious, rather than just looking to wind-up, 'full disclosure' is available to you at the LSE web, Economist, ECB reports/rules; stay away from Wiki gossip & non-refereed garbage) and other economic journals) ...
ECB is constrained by the debt of members.
It has control on the purchase of bonds which also must stay in proportion to national banks
Its stress tests have shown vulnerability; there is already huge concerns about Italy
German banks are already reacting to the amount of QE that Juncker authorised.
The Eurozone would not be able to devalue the currency because of the levels of member's debt
Eurozone members are not economically on par....etc.
Whereas...
UK can devalue the pound.
UK can sell bonds at sensible interest levels
UK BofE has successfully met stress levels
UK is a uniform economy.... etc
drdel
Tour Rookie
Perhaps they were/are just hoping to screw the price !!
Knowing his business he will buy his current raw materials and finished stock from other eu countries. He doesn't want the hassle of paperwork and the extra costs incurred by duties although he is making that judgement without knowing yet what the duty would be 🤔. I'm trying to coax him into relaxing and not making a knee jerk reaction. Germans are not easy to coax though 😄
Our products are not a major part of his business at the moment, I was hoping they were going to be over time, so I suspect he will just drop that product line from his range. He may look to replace us with an EU source but that will actually be quite tricky for him as there are not many producing what we do and they are already aligned with other German companies.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47228959
An expert?
Maybe no one told him its already in use on the Estonia - Russian border, or that the EU already has an ongoing project to have technical solution in place on all EU borders by 2025. Mmm, 2019 to 2025 is 10 years? Don't think so.
No doubt some rabid Remainer will lap it up and run off and tell the king the sky is falling in.
An expert?
Maybe no one told him its already in use on the Estonia - Russian border, or that the EU already has an ongoing project to have technical solution in place on all EU borders by 2025. Mmm, 2019 to 2025 is 10 years? Don't think so.
No doubt some rabid Remainer will lap it up and run off and tell the king the sky is falling in.
It's a panic move in my view and I'm trying to relax him without being patronising. We sell in euros so the fx rate doesn't affect him. It can give me some breathing space to manoeuvre in the short term but I don't like relying on fx rates as they are unpredictable and out of my control. What is in your favour one day can work against you the next.
Ths annoying thing is, more than annoying, is that other customers could well be searching right now for alternatives to us despite years of happy relations and good service all because our politicians are seeing how high they can #%Â¥$ up a wall. Uncertainty with UK companies is starting to spread now across the EU as leaving becomes more real..
I qualified the data from several sources before posting. Feel free to go and look at the data too, and post up a link proving me wrong, if you can.... Alternatively, continue to post up rubbish.
robinthehood
Hacker
drdel
Tour Rookie
you firstas i don't believe you
Another post where you make a real contribution - why bother, or is it just a wind up?
Mudball
Assistant Pro
I could have posted this in Random Irritations but I don't want that thread to become politicised:
We have a key customer in Germany. They have contacted me today to advise if we go out with no deal or even a deal that includes tariffs, then they will no longer buy from us. They don't want the hassle of paperwork, additional costs from tariffs.
Other customers are starting to place orders to cover the leave date plus extra to avoid duties / tariffs. That is okay if one customer orders 3 months worth of stock in one go but when more and more do then it stuffs me for raw materials and prodcution time. I'm trying to be as helpful as possible during this sensitive time for UK companies but I can't fit 50 days of production into 30 days.
One UK customer, actually about 50 miles from where we are, rang up to ask how Brexit will affect us supplying them. 'It wont, there are no issues.' 'Should we order earlier and take more in?' ' No, there is no need, your products contain no EU raw materials, we are 50 miles away so there are no tariffs' 'Are you sure we don't need to order more?'
Times are starting to get a little stressful.
We service a lot of European clients from the UK.. we r holding off all recruitment for the time being - though we will recruit in Europe. Me and my team role will be restricted to UK. So whoever FFS says that this Breshit affects other people .. this is a real issue for me. So if I m biased then don’t blame me. Of course someone will come along and say winners and losers everywhere. All I say, we are hellbent on making losers out of winners (and the winners are far and few between)
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Foxholer
Blackballed
No, not looking for a wind-up. Merely actual facts/evidence.
Given the above (thanks btw)....
I'd query how UK (or the EU for that matter) could actively 'devalue' their curency in a floating market. Surely, it's the market that determines equivalence!
I certainly agree that UK has an advantage in that it is a 'single' economy (in spite of the perennial 'hangers on' north of Carlisle!
) But I'm pretty certain that they have ways around that.Surely, it's not BofE that meets (or doesn't meet) stress tests - but the individual Banks. Agreed, Italian banks have issues (have they ever not?) but that doesn't seem to be 'out of control'. even Greece seems to be recovering, though with plenty of kicking and screaming!
Does Junker authorise QE? My understanding is that it's solely the responsibility of the ECB Governing Council - in the same/similar way that BofE's actions are separated from HM Government. The future value of bonds may well be/is an issue, but, properly managed, not catastrophic.
Mudball
Assistant Pro
GBP is a market driven currency unlike the Chinese currency, so if my economics is right, the BoE can’t ‘devalue’ it.. it can get devalued if the market thinks it’s too risky or otherwise.
BoE can sell Bonds, again T-bond rates are marked to market, so if the market thinks risks are too high, the rates will go up.
We could sell some gold if we had it.
I agree stress tests are fine, however if BoE keeps higher capital adequacy ratios then banks will raise interest rates to deter people from taking loans. (Unless BoE forces banks via negative rates)
with banks moving overseas that will reduce some currency exposure.
I have a lot of confidence in Mark C and what the BoE is doing. I would not be surprised if we have an interest cut in post no-deal just to keep things moving. They may choose sentiments over inflation in the short term.
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
You should know.
Slab
Occasional Tour Caddy
Out of curiosity have we anyone on the forum that voted to leave and are now aware of serious potential personal impact that they didn't consider at the time?
When I read about the latest firm to say they may just jack it in and move out of the UK (Ford) I cant help wondering that plenty Ford workers voted to leave (& plenty will have voted to remain) Would anything have changed knowing your job was on the line?
Prior to the vote did your employers make it known what the repercussions may be for either result and if so did it influence your vote?
When I read about the latest firm to say they may just jack it in and move out of the UK (Ford) I cant help wondering that plenty Ford workers voted to leave (& plenty will have voted to remain) Would anything have changed knowing your job was on the line?
Prior to the vote did your employers make it known what the repercussions may be for either result and if so did it influence your vote?
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
Ford are jumping on the Brexit bandwagon IMO. They have recently been talking about removing or severely cutting down their European operations and not just in the UK. Look at the attached.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-jobs-uk-europe-turnaround-plan-a8720621.html
you first
There's a shock! Another one of your soundbite posts with nothing to back it up. One of the data sources I referenced was the ONS. Now rather than change your nappy, and do your leg work for you, as I said get off your behind an qualify your original post. The reality is the facts are readily available, and just go to prove your hysteria.
BTW, the sky isn't falling down.
robinthehood
Hacker
Lol What hysteria ? I'm not interested in tit for tat link posting. I know categorically you posted BS and That's enough for me .
And ffs look up when to use soundbite
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D
Deleted member 16999
Guest
Can I ask a serious question? Not aimed directly at you, but, obviously we all hope that Brexit is positive for Britain as it will happen, but it seems everytime an article or comment is posted like the one you answered or Lord T posted that people post that either it’s an excuse or companies are being lazy or they’re wrong about Brexit.
Is it not possible that they’re right and it is Brexit and the uncertainty of how we’ll leave is causing it.
I accept Ford and other big companies will/may use Brexit as an excuse, but the impact on Lord T’s business can’t be written off as a lack of understanding or the other owner being lazy or any other reason, to them it’s fact and we have no idea if it could cost him his business or job losses if he does nothing and “holds his nerve†just like we have to put our interests first, in their mind, so do they.
The leavers over positivity is as bad as the remainers negativity at times.
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