Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Hobbit]

Genuine question to remainers:
Does it not concern you that the people running your campaign (including the government) did such a bad job pre referendum of highlighting the absolute disaster we face when leaving? Why didn’t they tell us?
Here we are 2.5 years later and only this morning I have learned that Brexit will be worse for the UK than WW2 (Branson) and that we won’t be able to go on holiday ever again (Doon via the Times). It was only a couple of weeks ago I heard that we will run out of drinking water (in one of the wettest countries on the planet) and that we will have no medicine.
Why was none of this mentioned before we voted? Surely no-one would have voted for another WW2 and no holiday!

Second genuine question to remainers:
Do you actually believe this nonsense or are you embarrassed by it?

Very good article in the Independent about the scare stories. Basically, it said don't believe them. It severely criticised Mark Carney, and asked the question why when several of his previous predictions have been proven to be wrong, and he did acknowledge he was very wrong, why is he getting air time?

On the issue of air travel, a number of carriers already have an office in the EU, and 2 recently moved their HQ there. So that's one hysteria debunked.

Holidays; Tui is a German company, and is still taking plenty of bookings. The Spanish minister for tourism has said whatever deal is done, British tourists will be allowed in without any problems. Don't forget, most of the world isn't in the EU yet can come here on holiday. More scare stories debunked.

"No medicines!" The UK is the third largest producer of medicines in the EU, and the second highest exporter of medicines to the EU. The EU will not stop importing medicines. It would be political suicide. And what comes through UK ports without checks will be down to the UK govt. Why would the UK block medicines? More political suicide. Mass hysteria more like.

There is the Mutual Recognition Agreements, and I expect medicines will fall under that when both sides stop posturing.

There will be problems, without a doubt, but the banner headlines are, in the main, total rubbish. Short answer on imports into the UK, don't stop them. Start Brexit with a unilateral declaration that nothing will be stopped until the EU start stopping stuff.

Great piece in the German parliament this week. Yet another German politician asking why the deal is obviously a punishment deal. And asking for reassurances that German businesses will be compensated by the EU for disruption/loss of trade. He further asked why THE country that has always walked the middle road between walking away and staying and being a moderating influence in Brussels has finally had enough.

 

[harpo_72]

Genuine question to remainers:
Does it not concern you that the people running your campaign (including the government) did such a bad job pre referendum of highlighting the absolute disaster we face when leaving? Why didn’t they tell us?
Here we are 2.5 years later and only this morning I have learned that Brexit will be worse for the UK than WW2 (Branson) and that we won’t be able to go on holiday ever again (Doon via the Times). It was only a couple of weeks ago I heard that we will run out of drinking water (in one of the wettest countries on the planet) and that we will have no medicine.
Why was none of this mentioned before we voted? Surely no-one would have voted for another WW2 and no holiday!

Second genuine question to remainers:
Do you actually believe this nonsense or are you embarrassed by it?

Think that’s a pointless question to ask .. for sure there was complacency, I mean one would expect some basic understanding where stuff comes from, that manufactured parts are not wholly made in this country but sourced from Europe.. some more defined stuff like the economy should have been broken down.
But given the facts, would the leavers have listened? ... your final question answers that question, your entrenched in a viewpoint, not willing to investigate deeper. I am sure some will benefit from Brexit, but I don’t feel I will, or my family will at this moment in time.

 

[harpo_72]

Very good article in the Independent about the scare stories. Basically, it said don't believe them. It severely criticised Mark Carney, and asked the question why when several of his previous predictions have been proven to be wrong, and he did acknowledge he was very wrong, why is he getting air time?

On the issue of air travel, a number of carriers already have an office in the EU, and 2 recently moved their HQ there. So that's one hysteria debunked.

Holidays; Tui is a German company, and is still taking plenty of bookings. The Spanish minister for tourism has said whatever deal is done, British tourists will be allowed in without any problems. Don't forget, most of the world isn't in the EU yet can come here on holiday. More scare stories debunked.

"No medicines!" The UK is the third largest producer of medicines in the EU, and the second highest exporter of medicines to the EU. The EU will not stop importing medicines. It would be political suicide. And what comes through UK ports without checks will be down to the UK govt. Why would the UK block medicines? More political suicide. Mass hysteria more like.

There is the Mutual Recognition Agreements, and I expect medicines will fall under that when both sides stop posturing.

There will be problems, without a doubt, but the banner headlines are, in the main, total rubbish. Short answer on imports into the UK, don't stop them. Start Brexit with a unilateral declaration that nothing will be stopped until the EU start stopping stuff.

Great piece in the German parliament this week. Yet another German politician asking why the deal is obviously a punishment deal. And asking for reassurances that German businesses will be compensated by the EU for disruption/loss of trade. He further asked why THE country that has always walked the middle road between walking away and staying and being a moderating influence in Brussels has finally had enough.

All above fair, but the holiday stuff is about us going elsewhere.. so irrelevant, we go when we can afford to go it’s about disposable income.
The medicines stuff are protected so once again irrelevant..
The German politician statement .. a nice touch, niaive about the offering a punishment deal, the deal was never going to be better than remain. 😂 ( thought you would appreciate the sarcastic emoji!)
All in all a bit of a waste of time that post 🧐

 

[Hacker Khan]

This is a genuine question, why is the trade minister celebrating a deal between Japan and the EU, an organising we are leaving, and saying it is good for us?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1073298501746991104

 

[SocketRocket]

This is a genuine question, why is the trade minister celebrating a deal between Japan and the EU, an organising we are leaving, and saying it is good for us?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1073298501746991104

Didn't the last sentence of his tweet answer your question.

 

[Hobbit]

All above fair, but the holiday stuff is about us going elsewhere.. so irrelevant, we go when we can afford to go it’s about disposable income.
The medicines stuff are protected so once again irrelevant..
The German politician statement .. a nice touch, niaive about the offering a punishment deal, the deal was never going to be better than remain. 😂 ( thought you would appreciate the sarcastic emoji!)
All in all a bit of a waste of time that post 🧐

Of course its a waste time shouldn't you be off playing with your Lego instead of wasting your time reading it...

 

[Hobbit]

This is a genuine question, why is the trade minister celebrating a deal between Japan and the EU, an organising we are leaving, and saying it is good for us?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1073298501746991104

The Japanese PM has invited the UK to join the transoceanic trade group post Brexit. Maybe there's been a discussion about it matching or bettering the EU deal, who knows...

 

[MegaSteve]

Think that’s a pointless question to ask .. for sure there was complacency, I mean one would expect some basic understanding where stuff comes from, that manufactured parts are not wholly made in this country but sourced from Europe.. some more defined stuff like the economy should have been broken down.
But given the facts, would the leavers have listened? ... your final question answers that question, your entrenched in a viewpoint, not willing to investigate deeper. I am sure some will benefit from Brexit, but I don’t feel I will, or my family will at this moment in time.

We have manufacturers who source components for their JiT needs from outside the EU without issue... Why would manufacturers who source their needs from within the EU not be able to manage in a similar way post brexit?

 

[Slime]

Take care if you are booking a holiday after 29th March.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...g-dont-go-on-holiday-after-march-29-jnfmrgsj9

 

[Sweep]

Think that’s a pointless question to ask .. for sure there was complacency, I mean one would expect some basic understanding where stuff comes from, that manufactured parts are not wholly made in this country but sourced from Europe.. some more defined stuff like the economy should have been broken down.
But given the facts, would the leavers have listened? ... your final question answers that question, your entrenched in a viewpoint, not willing to investigate deeper. I am sure some will benefit from Brexit, but I don’t feel I will, or my family will at this moment in time.

How can it be a pointless question? We are talking about something that’s going to be worse for the UK than WW2. We are going to run out of drinking water. No medicine. We are all going to die and we can’t even go on holiday before we peg it.
Or is the truth it’s all nonsense made up to try to force a reversal of the decision?

I note no remainers have answered the second question.
So do you believe it all or not? Yes or no will suffice.You don’t even have to tell me why it’s not nonsense.

 

[Hobbit]

How can it be a pointless question? We are talking about something that’s going to be worse for the UK than WW2. We are going to run out of drinking water. No medicine. We are all going to die and we can’t even go on holiday before we peg it.
Or is the truth it’s all nonsense made up to try to force a reversal of the decision?

I note no remainers have answered the second question.
So do you believe it all or not? Yes or no will suffice.You don’t even have to tell me why it’s not nonsense.

I'm Spartacus! Well, a Remainer actually.

No I don't believe it, and I am embarrassed about what other nations think about the idiots we have running the UK. We put them there. What does that say about us?

 

[Sweep]

This is a genuine question, why is the trade minister celebrating a deal between Japan and the EU, an organising we are leaving, and saying it is good for us?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1073298501746991104

I suspect the minister knows more than us about whether we are leaving or not.

Another pertinent question is “why can Japan have a deal without having to sign up for freedom of movement, have the EU make their laws for them or the EU stopping Japan from doing other deals around the world?”

 

[drdel]

I'm rather more concerned about whether our politicians will honour the referendum's democratic vote than the hype and tripe about the movement of money, goods and people

 

[Hobbit]

I suspect the minister knows more than us about whether we are leaving or not.

Another pertinent question is “why can Japan have a deal without having to sign up for freedom of movement, have the EU make their laws for them or the EU stopping Japan from doing other deals around the world?”

The EU has about 35 Free Trade Agreements, of which a number are with the likes of San Marino and Jersey. 27 others already provisionally applied, just waiting on the documents. And a further 25 under negotiation but won't be FTA's.

You tell me why the EU won't sign one with one of its bigger 'customers?' Its about punishment, its about 'forcing' the UK to stay, its about making sure every other EU country will get the message they will royally shafted if they try to leave, and its about the UK's current budget contribution, due to (provisionally) rise by a huge amount. The UK contributes about 13% of the EU's budget, and is the 3rd largest contributor. France is the second largest contributor but wasn't stupid enough to give up part of its rebate, and is actually 3rd when it comes to net contribution. A big lump like 13% out of the budget would cripple to EU, and the UK doesn't have the balls to use it as a bargaining chip. "Give us free access and we'll drip feed a contribution based on that, slowly reducing giving you time to alter the budget."

 

[Hacker Khan]

I suspect the minister knows more than us about whether we are leaving or not.

Another pertinent question is “why can Japan have a deal without having to sign up for freedom of movement, have the EU make their laws for them or the EU stopping Japan from doing other deals around the world?”

Really? Do you think after the last week or so there is some master plan that the ministers are all aware of about what is going to happen? And Hobbit has answered the second bit above much more eloquently that I can.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Blimey, I've finally found it, a reasoned and sensible defence of leaving the EU from a Tory Minster. Goes on a bit but they both make some good points. Teresa, promote this man immediately.

 

[Sweep]

Really? Do you think after the last week or so there is some master plan that the ministers are all aware of about what is going to happen? And Hobbit has answered the second bit above much more eloquently that I can.

As I have said before, MP’s from all parties are out of touch with their electorate in respect of the referendum decision. We have a remainer negotiating something she doesn’t ultimately want or believe in, backed up by the Europe Department in No10 made up of remainers. This has sidelined the Minister for Exiting the EU and his department causing two to resign.
Despite all the rhetoric they have allowed the EU to push the negotiations to agree what they want without even discussing what the UK wants. The whole furore of the past few weeks has been about us entering into a legally binding agreement before trade talks begin. What happened to “ nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”?
To suggest this is all because we are in a weak negotiating position is frankly nonsense. The trade deficit and money on the table is evidence of this.
Everyone on the leave side pretty much guaranteed this was going to happen. Many on here suggested the same thing. It’s clear that the governments position in order of preference is as follows:
1. Don’t leave at all
2. Fudge it so we leave but don’t actually leave at all.
3. Kick the can down the road for so long people will eventually forget.
4. Leave but tie us in, forever if possible.
5. If all else fails, give the people what they voted for.

The only reason they haven’t ditched Brexit yet is because they need to work out how to best manage the fall out in terms of
1. In “one of the worlds greatest democracies” how can they get away with being so blatantly undemocratic, especially when we demand the same from other countries?
2. It would kill off what little respect people have for politicians and the people’s engagement in politics, especially so soon after the record turnout in the Scottish Independence referendum. No one would ever vote again and the politicians wouldn’t even able to moan about it.
3. There would be civil unrest and not just from the usual suspects.
4. The mainstream parties will suffer. Positions will become polarised and extreme parties on both ends of the spectrum will enjoy increased popularity. Maintaining the status quo of two big political parties is very close to the hearts of MPs. Trying to maintain this status quo is why we were afforded the referendum in the first place. UKIP needed to be sidelined.

Here we are 2.5 years later and in truth we haven’t even started the process of leaving yet. That suggests to me that those in charge of taking us out are not really up for it.

I think most MP’s and government officials just wish the whole Brexit thing would just go away. And I think they will do what they can to make that happen.

 

[Sweep]

Blimey, I've finally found it, a reasoned and sensible defence of leaving the EU from a Tory Minster. Goes on a bit but they both make some good points. Teresa, promote this man immediately.

It lost me when the presenter said the remain side was legal and the leave side was illegal like that was a fact. And that IDS said he could solve it all but didn’t say how when IDS has been explicit in his explanation. That’s 5 mins I will never get back.
As for the politician, all very fine words but seemingly all a bit idealistic (unless he came up with some defined solution on how he was going to bring about such a resolution later).
I am guessing he was working up to that fudge I mentioned.
All very “intelligent” and reasoned but no substance and solves nothing.

 

[Hobbit]

As I have said before, MP’s from all parties are out of touch with their electorate in respect of the referendum decision. We have a remainer negotiating something she doesn’t ultimately want or believe in, backed up by the Europe Department in No10 made up of remainers. This has sidelined the Minister for Exiting the EU and his department causing two to resign.
Despite all the rhetoric they have allowed the EU to push the negotiations to agree what they want without even discussing what the UK wants. The whole furore of the past few weeks has been about us entering into a legally binding agreement before trade talks begin. What happened to “ nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”?
To suggest this is all because we are in a weak negotiating position is frankly nonsense. The trade deficit and money on the table is evidence of this.
Everyone on the leave side pretty much guaranteed this was going to happen. Many on here suggested the same thing. It’s clear that the governments position in order of preference is as follows:
1. Don’t leave at all
2. Fudge it so we leave but don’t actually leave at all.
3. Kick the can down the road for so long people will eventually forget.
4. Leave but tie us in, forever if possible.
5. If all else fails, give the people what they voted for.

The only reason they haven’t ditched Brexit yet is because they need to work out how to best manage the fall out in terms of
1. In “one of the worlds greatest democracies” how can they get away with being so blatantly undemocratic, especially when we demand the same from other countries?
2. It would kill off what little respect people have for politicians and the people’s engagement in politics, especially so soon after the record turnout in the Scottish Independence referendum. No one would ever vote again and the politicians wouldn’t even able to moan about it.
3. There would be civil unrest and not just from the usual suspects.
4. The mainstream parties will suffer. Positions will become polarised and extreme parties on both ends of the spectrum will enjoy increased popularity. Maintaining the status quo of two big political parties is very close to the hearts of MPs. Trying to maintain this status quo is why we were afforded the referendum in the first place. UKIP needed to be sidelined.

Here we are 2.5 years later and in truth we haven’t even started the process of leaving yet. That suggests to me that those in charge of taking us out are not really up for it.

I think most MP’s and government officials just wish the whole Brexit thing would just go away. And I think they will do what they can to make that happen.

Or maybe May realises that to heal the rift in the UK a compromise deal is needed. Something that satisfies leave the CU and SM but stays tied very closely.

As for big business's involvement, I'm really uncomfortable with it... exceptionally uncomfortable. On the one hand you have, let's say 200 major business leaders dictating how the country should be run. Is your vote not as good as there's? Is 17.xx million votes to be discounted because 200 business leaders say "no?" But, equally, without Corporation tax, employer's NI contributions and the wages that mean people aren't drawing the dole, the UK would be bankrupt.

The leap of faith that is Brexit, I refuse to dramatise it with "crash out" or "cliff edge," needs a huge amount of courage. Its not for me. Its far too risky. And from what I've seen in recent weeks its way beyond far too risky.

I think the UK could flourish outside the EU. It might take a few years and a few blips but the EU project is failing badly. Stay in and change it is my choice but, equally, that change is going to be have to be quick. Greece is beyond bankrupt, with Italy, Portugal, Spain not far behind. Further expenditure on vanity projects like an EU army is damn stupid, irrespective of whatever political drive there is behind it. Quantative easing has very recently come to an end. Mmm, serious crash ahead.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Some blue sky thinking which could possibly solve the Brexit problem and make everyone happy.


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