Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[Sweep]

Or maybe May realises that to heal the rift in the UK a compromise deal is needed. Something that satisfies leave the CU and SM but stays tied very closely.

As for big business's involvement, I'm really uncomfortable with it... exceptionally uncomfortable. On the one hand you have, let's say 200 major business leaders dictating how the country should be run. Is your vote not as good as there's? Is 17.xx million votes to be discounted because 200 business leaders say "no?" But, equally, without Corporation tax, employer's NI contributions and the wages that mean people aren't drawing the dole, the UK would be bankrupt.

The leap of faith that is Brexit, I refuse to dramatise it with "crash out" or "cliff edge," needs a huge amount of courage. Its not for me. Its far too risky. And from what I've seen in recent weeks its way beyond far too risky.

I think the UK could flourish outside the EU. It might take a few years and a few blips but the EU project is failing badly. Stay in and change it is my choice but, equally, that change is going to be have to be quick. Greece is beyond bankrupt, with Italy, Portugal, Spain not far behind. Further expenditure on vanity projects like an EU army is damn stupid, irrespective of whatever political drive there is behind it. Quantative easing has very recently come to an end. Mmm, serious crash ahead.

If I had believed the EU was capable of reform I would have voted remain. Sadly I don’t believe it is and any change would need to be forced upon it. You could say that Brexit is the start of this.
To the contrary, in the last few weeks I have started to see that a no deal is nothing to fear to the extent we are led to believe. We trade the world over on WTA and trade well. I would like a deal with the EU as long as they want it too. I believe the people of the EU do for obvious reason. I think the powers that be have other priorities.

 

[Hobbit]

If I had believed the EU was capable of reform I would have voted remain. Sadly I don’t believe it is and any change would need to be forced upon it. You could say that Brexit is the start of this.

You're right. I can't see Juncker and Barnier voting to end their domination.

 

[Blue in Munich]

If I had believed the EU was capable of reform I would have voted remain. Sadly I don’t believe it is and any change would need to be forced upon it. You could say that Brexit is the start of this.
To the contrary, in the last few weeks I have started to see that a no deal is nothing to fear to the extent we are led to believe. We trade the world over on WTA and trade well. I would like a deal with the EU as long as they want it too. I believe the people of the EU do for obvious reason. I think the powers that be have other priorities.

Another post that sums it up very well for me, with the bit I have bolded being the crux of the matter; Juncker, Barnier, Tusk et al have their own agenda which has very little to do with what's best for EU citizens.

 

[Hobbit]

Typical Spain, doing there own thing before the EU gets its act together. Just announced yesterday evening, British residents will keep their voting rights in local and national elections in Spain.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Genuine question to remainers:
Does it not concern you that the people running your campaign (including the government) did such a bad job pre referendum of highlighting the absolute disaster we face when leaving? Why didn’t they tell us?
Here we are 2.5 years later and only this morning I have learned that Brexit will be worse for the UK than WW2 (Branson) and that we won’t be able to go on holiday ever again (Doon via the Times). It was only a couple of weeks ago I heard that we will run out of drinking water (in one of the wettest countries on the planet) and that we will have no medicine.
Why was none of this mentioned before we voted? Surely no-one would have voted for another WW2 and no holiday!

Second genuine question to remainers:
Do you actually believe this nonsense or are you embarrassed by it?

It seems you/your quoted scenarios have fallen into the trap of gross exaggeration and an over simplification of what is often a nuanced story. You can't have a sensible debate if all you do is quote the headlines of The Daily Express. For example there was quite a good discussion about the drugs and the pharmaceutical industry this morning on Radio 5. And it is a complicated industry and the potential impacts of Brexit could arguably only be fully understood once you have a decent understanding of how the industry works with regards to stockpiling, profiteering, NHS procurement, drugs in and out of patent etc. And after listening it is clear that brexit is having an impact but chances are we will not run out of all medicines, although some are becoming harder to source due to a number of intertwining factors, with Brexit being one of them. But it is a very emotive subject if say you have cancer and you rely on cancer drugs to effectively keep you alive, so of course you will be concerned about any potential break in the supply of the drugs.

So yes if you believed Brexit would cause us to have no medicine or drinking water or whatever other disasters you've quoted then you need to research the claims a bit more. I suspect most of these stories are trying to sum up the more extreme ends of scenario planning that is going on in a neat newspaper headline. Planning is going on for the worst case scenario, as in a way that is easier to plan for as you can work out the implications as you know what the WTO rules are and what existing agreements will no longer be valid. But I imagine there will also be lots of planning going on for some form of a deal, well there will be as soon as the government work out what that deal it.

And as a remainer I am not really embarrassed about the claims as I like to think I have some form of critical analysis and do not believe literally everything I read/hear if, on the surface, it looks like it backs up my argument. In fact the more apocalyptic the claim the more I just filter them out as I know they are reductive garbage. If I'm embarrassed about anything it is the state this country has been reduced to and the rise of intolerance on the back of all this.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Another post that sums it up very well for me, with the bit I have bolded being the crux of the matter; Juncker, Barnier, Tusk et al have their own agenda which has very little to do with what's best for EU citizens.

Probably some truth in that. But then again substitute EU for UK in the highlighted bit you could make exactly the same argument about Rees-Mogg, Bojo, Leadsom, Hoey etc etc. We are being poorly served by politicians of all hues, colours and creeds at the moment, Brexit may get rid of one layer if that is a big issue for people, but that problem will still exist and arguably getting more entrenched as opinions and ideologies polarise.

 

[IanM]

Probably some truth in that. But then again substitute EU for UK in the highlighted bit you could make exactly the same argument about Rees-Mogg, Bojo, Leadsom, Hoey etc etc. We are being poorly served by politicians of all hues, colours and creeds at the moment, Brexit may get rid of one layer if that is a big issue for people, but that problem will still exist and arguably getting more entrenched as opinions and ideologies polarise.

Or any politician?

 

[Hacker Khan]

Or any politician?

Yes, as I said we are being poorly served by all politicians. Well actually I'd argue mostly those at ministerial level, or who like to believe they are at ministerial level (hello Rees-Mogg) as I do believe there are some good eggs below. My point was that getting rid of the EU as you are concerned that they have their own agenda and do not care that much about what is best for the majority of the people they govern, but then getting the type of politician that rises to the top nowadays, is kind of the classic frying pan fire scenario. Especially as the current favourite to replace May when she goes shortly is BoJo.

If you get rid of the EU and Corbyn comes to power then, whilst I can get on board with some of his policies more than I can the Tories, the principle is still the same.

 

[IanM]

Corbyn in power? Now that's an element of "project fear" that really does scare me!

 

[Hacker Khan]

Corbyn in power? Now that's an element of "project fear" that really does scare me!

I think the phrase is 'you'll only have yourself to blame'.....

 

[IanM]

I dont get that many votes! I am not a Trade Union!

 

[MegaSteve]

Corbyn in power? Now that's an element of "project fear" that really does scare me!

I would suggest that for many the thought of BoJo in charge of the madhouse will be an equally frightening thought...

He's not even exactly Mr popular in his own constituency...

 

[Old Skier]

Things getting more interesting on the main land with factions of the Yellow Vests now looking at starting a movement to get out of the EU and the Italians not over happy https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/italy-pinning-the-blame-on-brussels/ar-BBR0UZ7?ocid=spartandhp

Now we can clearly see why the powers to be in the EU are starting to worry about their golden nest egg.

 

[Old Skier]

I would suggest that for many the thought of BoJo in charge of the madhouse will be an equally frightening thought...

He's not even exactly Mr popular in his own constituency...

Not sure many are proving popular in their own or other constituencies.

 

[Taz]

this is worth a listen :

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/present...errari-tells-second-referendum-mp-id-fire-th/

 

[Hobbit]

Things getting more interesting on the main land with factions of the Yellow Vests now looking at starting a movement to get out of the EU and the Italians not over happy https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/italy-pinning-the-blame-on-brussels/ar-BBR0UZ7?ocid=spartandhp

Now we can clearly see why the powers to be in the EU are starting to worry about their golden nest egg.

Coincidently, I was reading a piece by an Italian economist in the early hours - man flu, coughing and spluttering, and banished to the back room. He said something very similar about the not level playing field the British have experienced. Basically, its all well and good the EU funding improvements in production in some little backwater of Europe but that doesn't do the producers in Northern Europe any favours. The backwater has lower running costs/wages but has a production facility on a par, or probably newer, than those in Northern Europe. His view being that the Northern European countries need subsidies to be able to compete with the facilities in Southern Europe.

It may lift that country off the bottom rung but it drives the northern European companies out of business. That leads to a shortages of taxes for the Northern European countries and an increased benefits bill.

I know from personal experience the German multi national I worked for closed several production lines in the UK and Germany, moving the work to the Czech Republic. It was cheaper to close those factories in northern Europe, and pay the redundancies whilst taking EU grants to open new production lines in the Czech Republic.

 

[IanM]

The list of organisations that have moved from "north-western" Europe to Eastern Europe using EU Grants makes interesting reading... nice to know our taxes are being used to throw workers on the Dole!

 

[drdel]

Coincidently, I was reading a piece by an Italian economist in the early hours - man flu, coughing and spluttering, and banished to the back room. He said something very similar about the not level playing field the British have experienced. Basically, its all well and good the EU funding improvements in production in some little backwater of Europe but that doesn't do the producers in Northern Europe any favours. The backwater has lower running costs/wages but has a production facility on a par, or probably newer, than those in Northern Europe. His view being that the Northern European countries need subsidies to be able to compete with the facilities in Southern Europe.

It may lift that country off the bottom rung but it drives the northern European companies out of business. That leads to a shortages of taxes for the Northern European countries and an increased benefits bill.

I know from personal experience the German multi national I worked for closed several production lines in the UK and Germany, moving the work to the Czech Republic. It was cheaper to close those factories in northern Europe, and pay the redundancies whilst taking EU grants to open new production lines in the Czech Republic.

Such interferences through grants and other economic instruments always causes a race to the bottom.

 

[Hobbit]

Typical Spain, doing there own thing before the EU gets its act together. Just announced yesterday evening, British residents will keep their voting rights in local and national elections in Spain.

And as if by magic, from the Costa Almeria News today. Wonder if the EU are happy with the bilateral agreement.

Spain and UK set to give each other's residents abroad post-Brexit voting rights in local elections
Madrid and London are finalising a bilateral agreement that will give British residents in Spain and Spanish residents in the UK the right to vote in post-Brexit local elections in the country they live in.
Spain and Britain’s governments have decided to streamline a deal that will protect the rights of its expat citizens in either country post March 29th, the day the UK leaves the EU.
The bilateral agreement will guarantee that Brits in Spain and Spaniards in the UK can continue to vote in local elections, or elecciones municipales as they are known in Spain.
Until now, Britain’s impending break-away from the EU was set to leave both groups without any voting rights in their country of residence, whereas as part of the bloc, registered residents even had the right to stand as candidates in local elections.
There are in fact currently 37 locally elected British town and city councillors in Spain, mostly in Comunidad Valenciana and Andalusia, the two Spanish regions with the highest number of British residents.
The current negotiation will ensure that the 280,000 Brits officially residing in Spain keep these two rights and will be able place their ballots - or stand - in Spain’s next local elections in May 2019.
That’s regardless of whether or not there’s a no-deal Brexit scenario which causes Brits to lose their EU rights as of March 30th 2019, rather than in December 2020, the month in which the transition breakaway period is scheduled to end in the event of a deal.
This deal is of course a reciprocal one which will be treated as an international treaty that has to be ratified by Spain and Britain’s parliaments.
According to leading Spanish daily El País, the agreement is being “negotiated at top speed” between May and Sánchez’s government but diplomatic sources did tell the paper it’s unlikely to be approved and ready in time for Spain’s local elections on May 26, 2019.
Spain’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs is therefore prepared for the agreement to come into action in a provisional sense as soon as the initial frame line is agreed upon.
Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell is also calling on the UK Embassy in Madrid to encourage the “several tens of thousands” of Brits in Spain who aren’t registered yet to do so in order to guarantee that they are protected by other contingency plans set to be rolled out including residency, health and work post Brexit in Spain.
For this the UK must deliver the same rights to the 115,000 Spaniards residing in “Gran Bretaña”.
Spain's local elections next May will determine what councillors are chosen in the country's 8,116 municipalities and what seats political parties hold in the 38 provincial councils.
The municipal elections will be held simultaneously with regional elections in most of Spain's autonomous communities.

 

[IanM]

Spain could find itself in serious trouble with Brussels for acting like a Sovereign Country!!

In other news, the Radio News this morning mentioned early holiday bookings for Turkey and Eastern Med up considerably, while those to Spain and Portugal down similar proportion. I expect some broadcasters will miss out the first half of that report!