Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[SocketRocket]

Surely if we are already in the EU then remaining in it can't usher in the 'end of this country as a sovereign state'. As that would mean we currently are one whilst being part of the EU. So why leave to become one? I'm confused by the leavers logic there. Not for the 1st time.

I think you have misunderstood this. What Leavers have been asking for is that the UK regains our position as a Sovereign State. Currently we are not one as we answer to an unelected bureaucracy who can over rule our laws. That's not sovereign. Hope that's resolved your paradox.

 

[Hobbit]

An interesting point from Thursday's Question Time. The UK will not be worse off post-Brexit. It is that growth will not be as good.... food for thought?

 

[Hacker Khan]

An interesting point from Thursday's Question Time. The UK will not be worse off post-Brexit. It is that growth will not be as good.... food for thought?

Semantics, if everyone else gets a 10 grand pay rise and you get a 10 quid pay rise, you are still personally better off than you were before, but a lot relatively worse off when compared to others. And business will mostly want to be in the place where everyone is getting an extra 10 grand instead of 10 quid. Economic growth is needed to sustain and even improve everyone's standard of living and a lot of companies and employers will want to be in markets with the most growth. So deliberately choosing to have less of it does not seem the most sensible idea.

 

[Hobbit]

Semantics, if everyone else gets a 10 grand pay rise and you get a 10 quid pay rise, you are still personally better off than you were before, but a lot relatively worse off when compared to others. And business will mostly want to be in the place where everyone is getting an extra 10 grand instead of 10 quid. Economic growth is needed to sustain and even improve everyone's standard of living and a lot of companies and employers will want to be in markets with the most growth. So deliberately choosing to have less of it does not seem the most sensible idea.

I can't disagree with any of that. Equally, as you say its semantics. Some are willing to take a hit and not be under Brussels' rule.

 

[bluewolf]

I can't disagree with any of that. Equally, as you say its semantics. Some are willing to take a hit and not be under Brussels' rule.

And not one single person in the entire World knows what that hit will be, and most don't understand just how much/little we are under Brussels' rule.. I think that sums up the last few years doesn't it?

 

[Hobbit]

And not one single person in the entire World knows what that hit will be, and most don't understand just how much/little we are under Brussels' rule.. I think that sums up the last few years doesn't it?

I think, in terms of Brussels' rule, there was a great piece in The Times about how many times our government had objected to laws made in Brussels. In the early days the UK lost about 67% 0f those objections. In the last 5 years the UK lost 82% of those objections. Add to that, Blair gave up the veto in the majority of the areas the UK had previously held a veto and you get a feel for where the UK is in terms of its own sovereignty.

As for growth or fall; an educated guess can be made based on current trading with the EU. But you are right, no one knows what new trade deals will be signed with the rest of the world that would offset any losses. And even after that, there's still the changes the UK could make to tariffs and corporation taxes. Its as long as a piece of string.

 

[MegaSteve]

And most don't understand just how much/little we are under Brussels' rule.. I think that sums up the last few years doesn't it?

n

I believe too much has been signed away on our behalf without first asking if that's what we wanted... Also, it's an ever growing moneypit we can neither afford or justify...

 

[Hobbit]

Donald Tusk has told UK MP's that is either Theresa May's deal, no deal or no Brexit. There will be no more negotiating. I do wish he'd kept his mouth shut. There's nothing like being strong armed to get the fence sitters to jump the other way.

 

[SocketRocket]

Semantics, if everyone else gets a 10 grand pay rise and you get a 10 quid pay rise, you are still personally better off than you were before, but a lot relatively worse off when compared to others. And business will mostly want to be in the place where everyone is getting an extra 10 grand instead of 10 quid. Economic growth is needed to sustain and even improve everyone's standard of living and a lot of companies and employers will want to be in markets with the most growth. So deliberately choosing to have less of it does not seem the most sensible idea.

When the establishment roll out the Treasury and BOE to tell us how grim a life we will be living in case of a No Deal they do not mention that we will not be worse off by it but possibly not quite as well off. They deliberately attempt to scare people into believing they will be worse off than they are now. At no point do they make a single example of areas where we could be better off. It stinks of a stitch up.

 

[IanM]

I have more respect for the EU if "my president" could appear for work sobber, and wearing matching shoes!

 

[Foxholer]

When the establishment roll out the Treasury and BOE to tell us how grim a life we will be living in case of a No Deal they do not mention that we will not be worse off by it but possibly not quite as well off. They deliberately attempt to scare people into believing they will be worse off than they are now. At no point do they make a single example of areas where we could be better off. It stinks of a stitch up.

Perhaps that's because, in every 'financial' area, it's expected that we will be 'worse off'! At least iin comparison with remaining in EU!

But remember... Brexit is not financial advantage - it's about independence/self-determination! Oh... and control of migration!

 

[Foxholer]

When the establishment roll out the Treasury and BOE to tell us how grim a life we will be living in case of a No Deal they do not mention that we will not be worse off by it but possibly not quite as well off. They deliberately attempt to scare people into believing they will be worse off than they are now. At no point do they make a single example of areas where we could be better off. It stinks of a stitch up.

Actually, according to the report, they predict that in all scenarios UK's GDP will rise! Just that 'No Deal' provides the least increase!

Remember...Brexit is not about improving UK's economy...It's about improving UK's control of its own destiny!

 

[Hacker Khan]

Donald Tusk has told UK MP's that is either Theresa May's deal, no deal or no Brexit. There will be no more negotiating. I do wish he'd kept his mouth shut. There's nothing like being strong armed to get the fence sitters to jump the other way.

To be fair TMay and some of her more loyal supporters has been saying that constantly for a few days now. And may be, just may be he is telling the truth from his EU perspective in that if we go back suggesting a Norway Canada Plus Plus Minus Divide By or whatever is the current latest idea is, he has got authority from the rest of the EU to tell us to do one?

 

[Foxholer]

...Add to that, Blair gave up the veto in the majority of the areas the UK had previously held a veto and you get a feel for where the UK is in terms of its own sovereignty.
...

UK wasn't the only EU member that lost the power of Veto! Most (perhaps even all) rulings that reach the voting stage 'only' require a majority based on member count and population percentage.

 

[Hacker Khan]

When the establishment roll out the Treasury and BOE to tell us how grim a life we will be living in case of a No Deal they do not mention that we will not be worse off by it but possibly not quite as well off. They deliberately attempt to scare people into believing they will be worse off than they are now. At no point do they make a single example of areas where we could be better off. It stinks of a stitch up.

But it was an economic forecast/guess based on economics. As far as I could tell they made a few assumptions about trade deals. But the Treasury are not going to start talking about controlling immigration, blue passports, getting out of the fisheries policy etc etc in that report.

Also as mentioned above, the wording about being worse off is semantics. If your wage increases never keep up with inflation then you are getting more money, but the longer it continues you will be relatively worse off compared with what you would have been if your wages matches inflation. So yes it is a lie to say we will be absolutely worse off, as in we will have negative growth in some scenarios. But we will be relatively worse off compared with what would have happened if we would be staying in (according to the forecasts). So I suppose people can decide themselves if being absolutely or relatively worse off is more important to their standard of living, pensions, wages etc etc.

 

[ColchesterFC]

To be fair TMay and some of her more loyal supporters has been saying that constantly for a few days now. And may be, just may be he is telling the truth from his EU perspective in that if we go back suggesting a Norway Canada Plus Plus Minus Divide By or whatever is the current latest idea is, he has got authority from the rest of the EU to tell us to do one?

Maybe it's time for a #PeoplesVote then. Two options for the public to choose from - Do we want to accept May's deal or do we want to leave with no deal?

I find it strange that only a few weeks ago Barnier was still suggesting that a Canada+++ type deal was still available and now they are saying it's May's deal or nothing. It must purely be coincidental that this comes at a time just after the latest forecasts have been released all showing that May's deal is the least worst option for Brexit. It feels as though they're trying to railroad us into accepting May's deal. And "they" isn't just the EU it's the government as well.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Maybe it's time for a #PeoplesVote then. Two options for the public to choose from - Do we want to accept May's deal or do we want to leave with no deal?

I find it strange that only a few weeks ago Barnier was still suggesting that a Canada+++ type deal was still available and now they are saying it's May's deal or nothing. It must purely be coincidental that this comes at a time just after the latest forecasts have been released all showing that May's deal is the least worst option for Brexit. It feels as though they're trying to railroad us into accepting May's deal. And "they" isn't just the EU it's the government as well.

Well to be honest I suspect they are. May sees it is the deal that will ensure she stays in a job and also in her opinion, do the least worse damage to the economy. As once the Tories screw up the economy they will lose a big stick they regularly use to beat up Labour with. And the EU probably see it as the best compromise for their members. A no deal is is no ones advantage economically (although it may well be politically for some elements) and I doubt there is much more time to get anything else sorted that will go anywhere near pleasing those who want it softer and those who want it harder. Or even those who don't want to pull out at all.

And I suspect there will be too much uproar with a peoples vote with only those 2 options as certain people will also want the 'Not go ahead after all' option on the ballot paper as well.

 

[ColchesterFC]

And I suspect there will be too much uproar with a peoples vote with only those 2 options as certain people will also want the 'Not go ahead after all' option on the ballot paper as well.

I would assume that any second referendum would have to be a simple binary choice which in itself is going to cause massive division. You will have one group that want Remain as an option which means that you then have to either have May's deal or no deal as the second option. You will then have another group that will say we've already voted to leave so this vote should only be about how we leave (as per my suggestion above) which will annoy those that want remain as an option. I don't see how it will be possible to have a 2nd referendum with a simple binary choice. And if you have all three options you could then have a case where 48% vote remain, 37% vote for May's deal and 15% vote no deal. Remain will have won based on a simple percentage but there are more that actually want to leave in one form or the other. Glad it's not me that has to work it all out.

 

[ColchesterFC]

And the EU probably see it as the best compromise for their members.

I think the EU probably see it as getting everything they wanted written in to the legally enforceable withdrawal agreement and very little that the UK wanted. From my view point the EU have massively had our trousers down throughout the negotiations. I'm not blaming the EU for that as they have tried to do what is best for the EU27, as they quite rightly should have done. It's the UK government negotiators that have annoyed me.

 

[Hacker Khan]

I think the EU probably see it as getting everything they wanted written in to the legally enforceable withdrawal agreement and very little that the UK wanted. From my view point the EU have massively had our trousers down throughout the negotiations. I'm not blaming the EU for that as they have tried to do what is best for the EU27, as they quite rightly should have done. It's the UK government negotiators that have annoyed me.

Can't believe you did not have faith in this man....