ColchesterFC
Journeyman Pro
I'll accept the one on the right of that photo but surely the one on the left should be supporting a politician called Clarke or possibly Brown.
Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!
- Thread starter drdel
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I'll accept the one on the right of that photo but surely the one on the left should be supporting a politician called Clarke or possibly Brown.
drdel
Tour Rookie
I amazed we're getting so exercised about the state of play when its a situation that's entirely predictable.
Anyone whose had to managed any large organisation through a period of major change and restructuring will know that there are several known phases to transition as people get used to the new ways. The first phase is where there is the dip in belief/popularity/fear as the realisation that change is on the way (mourning for the past, if you will). Usually lasts about a year but in this case because Article 50 has negotiations lasting a couple pf years its has been dragged out generating even more fear and unreasonable momentum. Once this is under our belt there'll be a couple of years of uncertainty before the new way gains traction, is accepted and progress is made.
The problem is that the EU negotiators never had any power to deal. It should have been Prime Minister to Prime Minister(s) hence Barnier could only bat stuff back to the UK and Davis, Raab etc were only seen as token representatives while T. May was obviously frustrated she could not get the r27 PMs to talk turkey.
The financial predictions that have hit the headlines from the Treasury and BoE are the 'worst' case scenarios for growth and, if you check their numbers, neither organisation added in growth rates or 'new business with RoW, they also discounted great chunks of the EU trade. Unsurprisingly at a time when the UK is still unfreezing from the past this has fuelled fear beyond what is reality and sensible.
Hopefully our Politicians will develop some sense and see the situation for what it is - the UK has enough capability and momentum to exceed the doom master's predictions whether tis a 'deal' or no-deal: the later providing a faster route for decision-making and growth.
Anyone whose had to managed any large organisation through a period of major change and restructuring will know that there are several known phases to transition as people get used to the new ways. The first phase is where there is the dip in belief/popularity/fear as the realisation that change is on the way (mourning for the past, if you will). Usually lasts about a year but in this case because Article 50 has negotiations lasting a couple pf years its has been dragged out generating even more fear and unreasonable momentum. Once this is under our belt there'll be a couple of years of uncertainty before the new way gains traction, is accepted and progress is made.
The problem is that the EU negotiators never had any power to deal. It should have been Prime Minister to Prime Minister(s) hence Barnier could only bat stuff back to the UK and Davis, Raab etc were only seen as token representatives while T. May was obviously frustrated she could not get the r27 PMs to talk turkey.
The financial predictions that have hit the headlines from the Treasury and BoE are the 'worst' case scenarios for growth and, if you check their numbers, neither organisation added in growth rates or 'new business with RoW, they also discounted great chunks of the EU trade. Unsurprisingly at a time when the UK is still unfreezing from the past this has fuelled fear beyond what is reality and sensible.
Hopefully our Politicians will develop some sense and see the situation for what it is - the UK has enough capability and momentum to exceed the doom master's predictions whether tis a 'deal' or no-deal: the later providing a faster route for decision-making and growth.
harpo_72
Journeyman Pro
So are any brexiteers going to say we will live happily ever after with an opportunity to buy what ever we please ..etc.. tell me everything good about a hard brexit , what am I going to get and how great will the lives of my off spring be?
drdel
Tour Rookie
What have you ever wanted to buy that either the EU or Brexit has or will stop?
Doon frae Troon
Ryder Cup Winner
Double Diamond on tap with Chas'n Dave on the Juke box.
When do we want it ….now.
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
I think thats what I intimated,
Hacker Khan
Yurt Dwelling, Yoghurt Knitter
Interested to hear with literally every economic forecast saying a no deal will economically be the worst case outcome, you say that this is the best route to growth?
harpo_72
Journeyman Pro
Strawberries now ... kiwis... at no extra cost, conti brake calliper , Bosch modulator, ...
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
It really would be a waste of time to do that as you are not willing to see any advantages at all for a No Deal Brexit, you and so many like you either want to ignore the positives or dwell on the negatives. I accept that leaving without a current deal will create some bumps in the road but I can also see the chance of a better future for us and not only in financial terms. The way you can only use the term Hard Brexit is indicative of your mindset and predjudiced outlook. Do me a favour and read some differing outlooks, you may then adopt a more balanced view that made you more credible.
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
So do many others if you make an effort to listen to them. Staying in, Mays deal and a clean break all have things for and against in most reasoned peoples opinion.
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
I like Chaz and Dave. They even sang a song about you. Darling, there aint no pleasing you.
Hacker Khan
Yurt Dwelling, Yoghurt Knitter
I'm willing to listen, please link to any economic forecasts that estimate that no deal will lead to increased economic growth. We've had the doom and gloom from the Treasury, where' the opposing view? I am genuinely willing to read any credible economic forecasts that indicate it would not be as bad as has been portrayed.
ColchesterFC
Journeyman Pro
I've just read an article that says that the UK will be £460 billion better off in the event of a no deal Brexit and the EU would be £500 billion worse off due to WTO tarrifs and no further payments from us to them. I say let`s go for it.
N.B. Those figures did come from Patrick Minford and I am unable to vouch for their accuracy.
harpo_72
Journeyman Pro
It’s a start .. keep digging
harpo_72
Journeyman Pro
You have no answer but blind faith ... your a danger to society
The RAND organisation did a report showing 7 different versions of Brexit. The only one that showed the UK better off with a No Deal scenario was one where they signed a TTIP deal with the US. A TTIP deal with the US would be way worse than staying the EU.
What the report doesn't show is the impact of new deals signed with countries outside the EU. Will it fill the trade gap? Just short or exceed?
Taking a punt at the options of trading with the EU; tariffs could, to a large extent be balanced. That balance could see tariff monies passed on to companies, as subsidies, that were seeing the pain. The reduction in UK tariffs on goods coming from the rest of the world might see some cost reductions on materials. And selling to non-EU countries would be easier. But there are WTO rules about applying different tariff rates to different countries.
HOWEVER, the one thing no one has talked about is quotas. If the EU decided to apply quota limits... you'd have to guess the impact.
ColchesterFC
Journeyman Pro
Here's a screengrab of the article. Looks like I was wrong, it's even better than I thought. We'll actually be £641 billion better off. Bonus. It must be true as it's printed in the paper. That's how it works isn't it?....
To be clear - I'm not a supporter of Brexit and don't believe these figures one little bit.
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
And there's the problem, you quantify a reply as 'credible, so that would be credible as viewed from your blinkered viewpoint. Let me suggest an alternative strategy. You read through some opposing articles and just try to pretty please find some scraps that could just possibly be seen as advantageous or having a modicum of potential to improve some peoples lifestyles. Go on, you know it makes sense.
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
Another lazy comment. You continue to ignore my stance or justify yours. Shame really as i think you could add to the debate if you had a more open mindset. Take a look at Hobbits posts, a man that voted remain but with an open mind.
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SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
If we set quotas on EU cars, Wine, Cheese, Machine Tools etc then the impact could be very different. We can get these products from the rest of the world.
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